guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,605
|
Post by guru on Jan 11, 2024 16:35:23 GMT -5
How much would a potent 5 help this team? If Sorber is ready to contribute, it will help TREMENDOUSLY on the offensive and defensive side of the ball (i.e. rim protection, rebounding, high percentage scoring, etc.). Sorber is really good and Cooley should be lauded for getting him. I think we need to pump the brakes on him completely transforming this team as a freshman. I know it's easy to be hopeful and think he's the freshman Patrick Ewing but he's more likely to be Jessie Govan and that is perfectly fine. If his comp ends up being a freshman year Govan, that would be a huge disappointment IMO. There’s a lot of playing field between freshman Ewing and freshman Govan though - hoping he’s at least on the Ewing side of the field. Of course he won’t be Patrick but very few ever have been.
|
|
EtomicB
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 14,952
|
Post by EtomicB on Jan 11, 2024 16:40:09 GMT -5
There's only one player on the rotation player list who's an upperclassman and also eligible to get an undergrad degree from Gtown this year.
Sure anybody can leave but that just means that we have no idea who'll be back which makes it harder to establish a core & culture in my view. I'm going to assume the players who transferred into the program this season will still be committed to helping Gtown reestablish itself after this season as well. OK, maybe I shouldn't have said "undergraduate" degree. I expect at least two players that you list in your original post will get a Georgetown degree this spring and will not return in 2024-2025. Are both players in the rotation? If not then I don't see how much has changed from what I laid out in my previous post. Again it's hard for me to see the players who are getting a lot of minutes leaving after the season
|
|
thedragon
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Enter your message here...
Posts: 2,331
|
Post by thedragon on Jan 11, 2024 17:40:05 GMT -5
There is chatter (take that as you will but its well sourced) - that both Bristol and Mutombo are on pace to graduate this year. Assuming they do so, I think it would be a surprise if either used their grad year at Gtown.
That would leave 4 open roster spots. I'd guess Cooley leaves 1 open and gets 2 top level transfers and 1 bench piece as well as retaining the core (Epps, Styles, Rowan, Fielder).
The most likely scenario in my opinion:
PG: Epps (Cooley and Epps see his future as a lead guard from what ive heard), Rowan SG: Transfer, Mulready SF: Styles, Transfer, McKenna, Williams PF: Transfer, Fielder C: Sorber, Cook
One open.
In a perfect world the transfers are a Big guard than can defend and play either guard spot. And a 4/5 man that can play inside or out. As well as a veteran 6th man wing type off the bench. Those additions would allow for a ton of lineup and matchup flexibility.
Guard rotation: Epps, Rowan, Transfer, Mulready
Potentially all 4 could be interchangeable at the 1/2 positions. Get a big Guard transfer and 3 guard lineups come in play as well.
Bigs rotation: Sorber, Fielder, Transfer, Cook. McKenna in an emergency. Again, lots of interchangeable parts.
The point is it's pretty easy to see how a few high quality transfers that check the right boxes and fits could turn this into a quality team rather quickly. When the guys you depend on as freshman become the bench guys that grow into their role as upperclassmen is when you start to see a program being built.
|
|
SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,783
|
Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 11, 2024 17:52:16 GMT -5
I think there will be improvement but you don't go from KenPom 185 and 277th defensively without bringing in impact players. From Kenpom 185 and 277th defensively to ... what? Perhaps we are just talking about different ending point? Also, my disagreement with your post was on the quality of the transfer. I do think we need a guy or two. I don't know that they need to be elite. I've got five returning players of value: Fielder (.5), Epps (1.5), Rowan (1.5), Styles (2.5) and Cook (3.5?). Three of the 5 have not completed two years and one of those had no gametime last year. I know this seems nitpicky, but when there's only four years to play normally, a half a year is important. As well, all those guys have only half a year playing together and playing under Cooley. This team was starting from complete scratch -- and while teams can come together quickly, not every team does. No, that's not our biggest problem right now. Our #1 problem, surprisingly, is that Massoud and Heath are combining for over 1/4 of our minutes in games (when they are healthy) and they have a combined offensive rating of 95 and are the two worst defenders on the team. And it's not close. We're playing 1-2 men down in every game, at every moment. Oh, Heath has like 2 good games and Massoud one, but you can't play this many minutes of complete black holes. They've been atrociously bad. Epps and Styles have had their moments of poor defense for sure, but they also have had solid games -- Seton Hall included. And what's more important is that they have a 106 (with monster usage) and a 113 Offensive Rating while having defense at least as good as those other two. Epps is our #1 playmaker and Styles a strong rebounder in most games. Rowan has a Heath-esque offensive contribution, but he's a better defender and improving. You can try to put this on other players, but I don't think Epps or Styles' defense is nearly as bad as you think, but even if they are one dimensional ... it's better than zero dimensional. That's because the numbers are just fine (EDIT: Accurate, not that we are good) at the team level but attribute horribly to individual. These are the same numbers that claim Nikola Jokic was the best defensive player in the history of the NBA because he got a lot of defensive boards. They are also pretty terrible on that point because they don't acknowledge the knock on defensive effects that one or two total disasters on defense have on everyone else. I don't think Epps will ever be a plus defender -- Style might -- but no one is going to look like a plus defender when two of your teammates don't stay in front of anyone and have no idea where to rotate. Defense is a team gig, and trying to play defense a man or two down is what is killing us. Give Cooley a full year to get the rotations down, get some help down low and a couple more good defenders, and while a player like Epps will never be a defensive positive, he'll look much better in a broader, better team defense. With effort and smarts, anyone can be passable. Rim protection can help immensely in college. We'll need rim protection and rebounding, but Roy Hibbert made a Jesse Sapp and Jon Wallace backcourt into the #1 defense in the nation the second half of the 2007 season, and I think we were #2 in the 2008 season. And I'm not targeting being the #1 or #2 defense -- just challenging the idea that rim protection can't transform a defense in college. And the cascade of 1) getting rid of two defensive disasters and 2) if we can add real protection means that you can defend the three and it's not the bigger issue if you get burned. We're bringing in freshmen, and I don't think we're getting a Roy Hibbert on defense no matter what, so I don't expect the defense to be great ore really even good. But the baseline is so low, I do expect it to be better. And I expect the offense to be better. Are we talking next year or "the next few years" or "topping out?" If we're talking two years from now, when players like the freshman class are now sophomores, Fielder's a junior and so on, plus two transfer windows that haven't happened ... How do we project that? Isn't this a different conversation? I'm talking specifically next year. What I'm saying is we're not replacing our current backups. We're replacing TWO starters. Our other three starters are hopefully going to improve either through personal growth or by Cooley coaching them up longer than a half season. Plus Fielder, who might actually turn into a decent rim protector if he can figure out how to handle defending on the perimeter. My point is that IF we can retain our players and half of them improve and/or we get some bump from more time in system, plus add a couple of decent transfers, plus have say, two of the freshman contribute at decent levels, that's not just improving the backups. That's: Epps --> Jr Epps Styles --> Jr Styles Rowan --> Soph/Jr Rowan or Mulready Massoud --> Soph Fielder Cook --> Sr Cook or Sorber Heath --> Transfer better than Heath Bristol --> Transfer better than Bristol Fielder --> Sr Cook or Sorber Bacote --> Williams Mutombo? --> McKenna I know we all have a tendency to overhype, but which of those two teams do you think is better? In terms of bigs, we've got one guy likely to improve, one guy not, and Sorber. And then maybe a transfer? Which is better? In terms of guards, we retain everyone but Heath ... but add Mulready and maybe a transfer? When you look at those switches, I don't see a great defense. I see a better defense and a much better team. Less minutes playing due to more depth, more time together, more coachable, more athleticism. The freshmen won't be good at defense, but they can't be worse than Heath and Massoud. And I think that the added size down low makes a material difference, and more time with Cooley does as well. You're right that if Epps and Styles play defense like their worst games this season ... they will be the same defensive sinkholes that Heath and Massoud are. Or if Fielder simply can't handle the pick and roll. Or if the freshman take too long to get up to speed. But on average, I think there's a significant improvement both offensively and defensively, provided we get some decent transfers. I mean, great if we get stars. But get me some BE average players, especially if we get a touch of defense and shooting, and I think we take a major step forward. I think he felt / feels he needed to give Massoud more of a chance. He missed 6 games and a lot of camp, so there's some reason a longer leash is fair. If he was hitting 40%, and if he just defended a slight bit better, he'd be an asset, and we'd probably have two more wins at least. There's definitely an upside to him. Fielder looks great but right now he gets muscled down low and can't guard anyone on the perimeter so he's fairly easy to isolate at times. If he gets stronger one of those goes away and some footwork training can help the latter. But he's also improved quite a bit over the last few games, so I expect more of a minutes shift if Massoud keeps not contributing. To be honest, stretch five Drew Fielder with his shotblocking potential and ability to hit threes is an absolute nightmare if we can rebound without taking a 3 point shooter off the floor. Pulling their big out of the lane -- especially as we start to get some more athletes on our side -- makes it a Sophie's Choice for opponents. Not a lot of college bigs can defend that three and get back to defend the rim.
|
|
TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,458
|
Post by TC on Jan 11, 2024 17:53:33 GMT -5
In the case of 4 open slots, I like this scenario :
PG: Epps, Transfer SG: Rowan, Mulready, Williams SF: Styles, Transfer, McKenna PF: Cook, Fielder C: Sorber, Transfer
RS Injured Transfer Forward
I think we could really use a secondary ballhandler to take Epps off the ball at times and to free Epps up for open passes. It'd be nice if the SF transfer would be an instant bucket on the wing and if we could get a second C with size, weight, and height. And then add an injured transfer red shirt forward with experience for 2025-2026.
|
|
SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,783
|
Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 11, 2024 18:02:20 GMT -5
One more point. It's a small sample, but where we are poor in the Big East this year defensively is 2pt FG% and defensive rebounding. We're a disastrous 11th and 295th in the country (inc. non-conference) in the former and 10th and 282nd in the latter.
More shotblocking and better size down low will absolutely make a huge impact.
Offensively, we have terrible 2 pt % and we turn the ball over too much. I don't think it is as clear how to improve that, but if someone can get any kind of low post game and presence there, it will help.
|
|
traversb
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 397
|
Post by traversb on Jan 11, 2024 21:11:01 GMT -5
In the case of 4 open slots, I like this scenario : PG: Epps, Transfer SG: Rowan, Mulready, Williams SF: Styles, Transfer, McKenna PF: Cook, Fielder C: Sorber, Transfer RS Injured Transfer Forward I think we could really use a secondary ballhandler to take Epps off the ball at times and to free Epps up for open passes. It'd be nice if the SF transfer would be an instant bucket on the wing and if we could get a second C with size, weight, and height. And then add an injured transfer red shirt forward with experience for 2025-2026. I don't want to quote SFHoyas as its long but I'll do a combo with this. The team you posted may be better defensively than this year but optimistically if they are 100 spots higher we still aren't a tournament team and that doesn't look like a 100 spot jump team. Sorber is very good but he is not the defensive difference maker a lot of people here (not SF as he's realistic) is making him out to be. You have to be able to stop guys and no matter what position they play the 3 guys you list at the 1-3 would have to make a huge jump defensively. It's just not realistic especially when the 1 and 2 are also bad rebounders. If thedragon is right that Epps is the PG moving forward then I think giving Mulready the chance to show himself at the 2. He has the profile to be exactly what we need there. Of course that is to be determined. Problem is an experienced transfer is more of the sure thing so they probably bring in a grad transfer there as it's hard to see Cooley taking any chances on being terible after this disaster year. In you're scenario what level of transfer do you think we come here to play backup to a team coming off a 10th place Big East finish and what impact can they really make that makes this team take a huge leap? You can't give Fielder backup minutes again next year you will lose him. Cook seems a natural backup to Sorber as that is his level. Also Sorber and Cook make no sense together on either end. From what we have now this all seems to be building up to a year 3 team that is ends up being a middle of the pack BE team but is picked preseason Top 3 with lots of hype. Team has trouble defending but gets in the tournament as a 10 seed and people rejoice which I would not be one. My standards haven't fallen that far yet and I think there is a long list of coaches that could pull that off at Georgetown. Yea that's a lot of projecting but isn't that what message boards are all about.
|
|
traversb
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 397
|
Post by traversb on Jan 11, 2024 21:18:42 GMT -5
One more point. It's a small sample, but where we are poor in the Big East this year defensively is 2pt FG% and defensive rebounding. We're a disastrous 11th and 295th in the country (inc. non-conference) in the former and 10th and 282nd in the latter. More shotblocking and better size down low will absolutely make a huge impact. Offensively, we have terrible 2 pt % and we turn the ball over too much. I don't think it is as clear how to improve that, but if someone can get any kind of low post game and presence there, it will help. But who is the more shotblocking and better size that is coming. The 6'10 freshman? I think the one thing we both agree on is it's way too much to expect Sorber to be the defensive difference maker to turn this all around. Yes he gives us a low post presence and maybe a better rebounder than Cook which helps the team but we have so far to come. The defensive difference has to be made staying in front of guys and not getting completely lost on defense. It's not that we are a good 3 point defense this year. It's that we are so bad in close that it's smart to take those shots. Even if Sorber is a defensive revelation then teams will just go back to shooting the wide open 3's we give up. This is not a 1 aspect fix. It's also not like the offense good. It's average although that could be tournament level with the new pieces and addition by subtraction. Even if we make a 100 spot jump in KP we still aren't a tournament team. That is why it's hard for me to see bring back the same core and getting excited. edit. - I guess the TLDR is I don't think you can bring back 60%ish of a team that is this bad and expect them to make the leap necessary. So either Cooley blows up the core or we improve but not nearly enough.
|
|
saxagael
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,898
|
Post by saxagael on Jan 11, 2024 22:06:20 GMT -5
I watched the post game presser, which was odd in that the two players Cooley had with him were Rowan and Ish. Colley pulled Rowan early in both halves and Ish deeply struggled. Cooley has done post game pressers alone, with one player and two. After a tough loss (Cooley strongly blamed himself) it seemed an odd choice, unless they were there for support. I suspect Cooley chose those two- Rowan and Ish, because they had poor games."I'll take you out there for the plaudits, but let's see how you handle a bit of negativity". The press were kind though and didn't hit them hard with unpleasant questions. But think about how they felt sitting up there after struggling- maybe a good lesson, or at least an attempt at one. The press, unless NYC press, won't do that. Also Cooley doesn't do that and it is very counter to everything he claims and has shown at Georgetown or at Providence. I know players who he coached at Providence (former DMV players) and they had nothing but great things to say about him. They may have wanted to play more, or other wishes, but if they had a rough stretch he was open and helpful through that stretch to get them through rough patches.
|
|
saxagael
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,898
|
Post by saxagael on Jan 11, 2024 22:20:12 GMT -5
In post game presser Cooley called out three things need to always be insync: The best scorer (didn't name); point guards (named Epps and Rowan); and the coach. He said if one is out of sync it is trouble, if who are there are real issues. Epps was on, Cooley said he himself was out of sync, and Rowan didn't play much (Heath hasn't been called out by Cooley at all this year as a PG, but Rowan has).
Rowan doesn't dribble to set himself up, it is to get a good solid pass and to read the defense and create a mismatch and pass into that mismatch. If he is dribbling a lot players aren't getting open and there isn't an optimal pass. Also has drilled into him not to pick-up the dribble until you have a place to go with the ball (a serious DMV travel team obsession, particularly his coaches).
I didn't catch the first part of the game, but in the second half with Rowan was in Styles just camped out and didn't move, similar with Ish, Epps is very mobile, Cook will set a solid pick. Cooley has been running motion with Epps, Rowan, and Syles (sometimes) running off low elbow picks and loop back to pick up the ball and / or shoot off the space they get. The motion and rotations are insanely slow. Much of the Hall game it was the third rotation before the ball moved off point, it wasn't working.
|
|
saxagael
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,898
|
Post by saxagael on Jan 11, 2024 22:29:32 GMT -5
There is chatter (take that as you will but its well sourced) - that both Bristol and Mutombo are on pace to graduate this year. Assuming they do so, I think it would be a surprise if either used their grad year at Gtown. That would leave 4 open roster spots. I'd guess Cooley leaves 1 open and gets 2 top level transfers and 1 bench piece as well as retaining the core (Epps, Styles, Rowan, Fielder). The most likely scenario in my opinion: PG: Epps (Cooley and Epps see his future as a lead guard from what ive heard), RowanSG: Transfer, Mulready SF: Styles, Transfer, McKenna, Williams PF: Transfer, Fielder C: Sorber, Cook One open. In a perfect world the transfers are a Big guard than can defend and play either guard spot. And a 4/5 man that can play inside or out. As well as a veteran 6th man wing type off the bench. Those additions would allow for a ton of lineup and matchup flexibility. Guard rotation: Epps, Rowan, Transfer, Mulready Potentially all 4 could be interchangeable at the 1/2 positions. Get a big Guard transfer and 3 guard lineups come in play as well. Bigs rotation: Sorber, Fielder, Transfer, Cook. McKenna in an emergency. Again, lots of interchangeable parts. The point is it's pretty easy to see how a few high quality transfers that check the right boxes and fits could turn this into a quality team rather quickly. When the guys you depend on as freshman become the bench guys that grow into their role as upperclassmen is when you start to see a program being built. Cooley calls out Epps and Rowan as his point guards and the point guard as Cooley states is one of three most important parts of the team. The other player that is most important is the lead scorer, which is hands down Epps. Cooley has brought this up a few times, but also called out the lead scorer and point guard should be different players. The third most important part is the coach and all three must be in sync to do well. It seems Cooley see Epps as SG, as in scoring guard. Mulready could add depth for both PG and scoring. I wouldn't see it out of the question to have a three guard starting line-up at some point with Fielder and Sorber / Cook. May all depend what happens at SF position.
|
|
jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,035
|
Post by jwp91 on Jan 11, 2024 23:02:37 GMT -5
How much would a potent 5 help this team? If Sorber is ready to contribute, it will help TREMENDOUSLY on the offensive and defensive side of the ball (i.e. rim protection, rebounding, high percentage scoring, etc.). Sorber is really good and Cooley should be lauded for getting him. I think we need to pump the brakes on him completely transforming this team as a freshman. I know it's easy to be hopeful and think he's the freshman Patrick Ewing but he's more likely to be Jessie Govan and that is perfectly fine. I understand your point, but I am not talking about Sorber being freshman Patrick Ewing. I am talking about not being completely impotent on offense and defense at the 5. Our offense NEVER looks into the post as a primary option. It is like we are playing 4 on 5. And any rim protection would be additional rim protection. I hope Sorber can be more effective than a well-intentioned Cook.
|
|
|
Post by professorhoya on Jan 12, 2024 0:04:03 GMT -5
There is chatter (take that as you will but its well sourced) - that both Bristol and Mutombo are on pace to graduate this year. Assuming they do so, I think it would be a surprise if either used their grad year at Gtown. That would leave 4 open roster spots. I'd guess Cooley leaves 1 open and gets 2 top level transfers and 1 bench piece as well as retaining the core (Epps, Styles, Rowan, Fielder). The most likely scenario in my opinion: PG: Epps (Cooley and Epps see his future as a lead guard from what ive heard), Rowan SG: Transfer, Mulready SF: Styles, Transfer, McKenna, Williams PF: Transfer, Fielder C: Sorber, Cook One open. In a perfect world the transfers are a Big guard than can defend and play either guard spot. And a 4/5 man that can play inside or out. As well as a veteran 6th man wing type off the bench. Those additions would allow for a ton of lineup and matchup flexibility. Guard rotation: Epps, Rowan, Transfer, Mulready Potentially all 4 could be interchangeable at the 1/2 positions. Get a big Guard transfer and 3 guard lineups come in play as well. Bigs rotation: Sorber, Fielder, Transfer, Cook. McKenna in an emergency. Again, lots of interchangeable parts. The point is it's pretty easy to see how a few high quality transfers that check the right boxes and fits could turn this into a quality team rather quickly. When the guys you depend on as freshman become the bench guys that grow into their role as upperclassmen is when you start to see a program being built. Can you spend 4 years plus a grad years (5 years) at the same school? This seems to never happen. Is there An ncaa rule?
|
|
|
Post by professorhoya on Jan 12, 2024 0:36:15 GMT -5
In post game presser Cooley called out three things need to always be insync: The best scorer (didn't name); point guards (named Epps and Rowan); and the coach. He said if one is out of sync it is trouble, if who are there are real issues. Epps was on, Cooley said he himself was out of sync, and Rowan didn't play much (Heath hasn't been called out by Cooley at all this year as a PG, but Rowan has). Rowan doesn't dribble to set himself up, it is to get a good solid pass and to read the defense and create a mismatch and pass into that mismatch. If he is dribbling a lot players aren't getting open and there isn't an optimal pass. Also has drilled into him not to pick-up the dribble until you have a place to go with the ball (a serious DMV travel team obsession, particularly his coaches). I didn't catch the first part of the game, but in the second half with Rowan was in Styles just camped out and didn't move, similar with Ish, Epps is very mobile, Cook will set a solid pick. Cooley has been running motion with Epps, Rowan, and Syles (sometimes) running off low elbow picks and loop back to pick up the ball and / or shoot off the space they get. The motion and rotations are insanely slow. Much of the Hall game it was the third rotation before the ball moved off point, it wasn't working. If you dribble too much or are too ball dominant then your teammates lose interest cause they aren’t getting touches. That is always on the point guard or QB of the offense so to speak
|
|
bostonfan
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,508
|
Post by bostonfan on Jan 12, 2024 7:51:14 GMT -5
In the case of 4 open slots, I like this scenario : PG: Epps, Transfer SG: Rowan, Mulready, Williams SF: Styles, Transfer, McKenna PF: Cook, Fielder C: Sorber, Transfer RS Injured Transfer Forward I think we could really use a secondary ballhandler to take Epps off the ball at times and to free Epps up for open passes. It'd be nice if the SF transfer would be an instant bucket on the wing and if we could get a second C with size, weight, and height. And then add an injured transfer red shirt forward with experience for 2025-2026. If they are looking for transfers for next year, I think the two spots they need to fill are an athletic rim protector/rebounder and a really quick point guard who doesn't turn the ball over and can break down his defender and get into the paint. That PG would not need to be a big time scorer but someone that can force defenses to rotate and then can find open shooters or drop off to bigs in the paint
|
|
|
Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 12, 2024 12:05:48 GMT -5
Can you spend 4 years plus a grad years (5 years) at the same school? This seems to never happen. Is there An ncaa rule? I cannot find the official rule and the rules are always changing but according to this website, you CANNOT stay at the same school where you earned your undergraduate degree: www.athleteroadmap.com/blog/understanding-ncaa-d1-graduate-transfer-ruleBut, I don't know how the COVID waivers impacted that, or if the rules have changed. The COVID waiver was for 2020-2021, so that will soon be obsolete anyway.
|
|
TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,458
|
Post by TC on Jan 12, 2024 12:10:56 GMT -5
Can you spend 4 years plus a grad years (5 years) at the same school? This seems to never happen. Is there An ncaa rule? I cannot find the official rule and the rules are always changing but according to this website, you CANNOT stay at the same school where you earned your undergraduate degree: www.athleteroadmap.com/blog/understanding-ncaa-d1-graduate-transfer-ruleBut, I don't know how the COVID waivers impacted that, or if the rules have changed. The COVID waiver was for 2020-2021, so that will soon be obsolete anyway. You can definitely spend 4 years plus a grad year at the same school. The link above is talking about the one-time transfer exception - if you continue graduate study at the same institution, by definition you would not be a transfer and you would not need the one-time transfer exception.
|
|
SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,783
|
Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 12, 2024 13:21:24 GMT -5
But who is the more shotblocking and better size that is coming. The 6'10 freshman? I think the one thing we both agree on is it's way too much to expect Sorber to be the defensive difference maker to turn this all around. Yes he gives us a low post presence and maybe a better rebounder than Cook which helps the team but we have so far to come. Let's call it rim protection rather than shot blocking since that's much more important. There are a number of potential sources: - Improvement by Fielder leads to more minutes and better defensive play by him
- The addition of a better Fielder and Sorber leads to more two big lineups, leading to strong interior defense, as well as the better rebounding dynamic that allows for more contests
- See the above but also with a decent defensive transfer
You've said this a lot but it's not true. Yes, staying in front of your man is very important and a way for improvement, but the idea that better rim protection is neither possible nor particularly meaningful is incorrect. Like I said, Jesse Sapp, Jon Wallace and a freshman DaJuan Summer started on an elite defense. And then next year, Sapp, Wallace, Summers and a freshman Austin Freeman started on a Top 10 defense (I thought it #2, it was #6 apparently). All under a coach people couldn't wait to get rid of, I might add. Tell me the plus defender in that group, because there isn't one. There was just one on the court, and that was Roy Hibbert. Anyway, the idea of a defense staying in front of their guy being the answer is completely useless in the modern game. Even in the college there's guys who can't be guarded one on one. In the NBA, that's half the league, but somehow, there's still good defenses. Because defenses succeed as a team, with smart rotations and help. And that's how we'll have a good defense, when we do. Not because we suddenly have five lock down defenders, but because we have some good defenders, but we know how to move as a team. I think we've actually seen improvement already on the number of space out moments, for example. You seem very certain no improvement can occur: players can't get better, the team can't improve as a team, we can't bring in anyone even decent to help. I disagree with all that; I think there are a number of baby steps that make this is a serviceable, if not necessarily good, defense. - Improved rim protection from Sorber, Fielder, a transfer or a combo
- Less "lost" plays due to personnel change, improvement or improved time together and coaching
- Improved D rebounding due to an increase in functional size and strength, leading to less easy putbacks
- Improved transition D due to coaching
Opponents shoot about 35 or so 2s a game (not including fts from 2s). A ten percent change in effectiveness is 3.5 buckets a game -- or 7 points. Take each of the four points above -- and take away two easy buckets from the opponent and make them harder -- just 2! -- and how many buckets go down? A 10% drop in effectiveness, by the way, would make pretty damn good on 2 pt % on the year, so I certainly don't that. The point is that our defense is not poor if you take away the clear errors -- the lost men, the transition D, and the offensive boards. It's passable; it's those mistakes that make it bad. And we'll be replacing two of the guys who lose their men or can't keep the player in front of them most consistently. We're also losing a "PF" who gets less than 15% of defensive rebounds. Fixing the very clear dumb mistakes and problems is doable (mostly -- I don't know that we will be a good rebounding team soon) and there's enough of them that it can make a significant difference. Take away three buckets a game. That's what we need to beat Seton Hall and TCU and toss in Epps and we beat Butler, too. We're just making too many mistakes with our talent. I'm not saying we will definitively get demonstrably better, but I really don't see why you think it's impossible or even unlikely. It's only that if you think that (a) college basketball players can't improve and (b) Cooley can't bring any improvement in coaching despite a long track record of doing so. Opponents are shooting 30%. If it were so simple as "Our total defense sucks but they are just picking the easy two" a) they wouldn't be picking a two over an open 3 because any shooter who expects to hit over 40% on an open three, which is a lot of them, would choose that and b) the fact that they are only taking really smart and easy 3s would lead to a much higher FG% unless our opponents are simply morons. Yes, there's a tie between the low number of 3s and low 3 pt % we are giving up and the high 2pt FG% we are giving up. But it's not as if our defense is so pathetic opponents can pick and choose an easy shot anywhere. We don't give up a ton of open threes -- in sharp contrast to last year. We're simply not doing well enough contesting shots and rebounding misses. If Sorber is a defensive relevation you will see the defense improve immensely. I don't expect him to be. But if he is... the defense will leap forward. We don't give up a ton of wide open threes. Yes, we give up some -- nearly everyone does. Most of them are people overhelping, and a large percentage of those won't be back next year. Some will, but that's also teachable. I know we had Ewing for a while and we never saw improvement, but again, there's improvement there for even a mediocre coach. When did I say it was? I simply think there's a lot of improvement to be had in various places. The difference between you and I isn't that -- it's that you don't think anyone or anything on this team other than maybe Fielder can improve. Despite the focus on the freshman to sophomore year jump, college basketball players make significant leaps between any year. We've had a ton of guys go from inefficient to effective between soph and junior year. We've had guys unexpectedly become stars as seniors. The good thing is that we don't need to count on an aberration in growth. We don't need EVERYONE to improve or someone to make a gigantic leap. We don't need all four freshman to be ready. A few improvements here or there. Two of the freshman contribute. A good transfer or two. Grab two more defensive boards per game. Stop one transition bucket. Reduce the "lost" moments by 3-4 a game. Rowan become a high 30s/low 40s 3pt shooter. Fielder add 10-15 pounds of muscle. Epps make four better decisions. Sorber and Mulready are ready. Now add a couple of average transfers and this is a real team, perhaps even a bubble team with some luck. It's a big jump, for sure. I don't know that we're a tournament team next year, at least not certain. But I don't think you need to "blow up the core" to get to a bubble team. Mostly because we're adding significantly to the core in my scenario as well as shifting minutes and improving our core. Our "core" is 5 playing about 60% of the minutes as you note, but a) Even by your metrics, the players losing minutes last year are all at the bottom of BPM (which I don't love, but it's probably overrating Cook and underrating Epps) for this team except Brumbaugh, who has been below 0, and Bristol, who has been above. b) If we get two good transfers, and add 2-3 freshman ready to play, it's not just the Heath minutes replaced, it's the Bacote and Mutombo and so on. Furthermore, it'll also be the Brumbaugh and Styles, Cook and so on if they don't improve. If we get a big transfer and Sorber is good, and Fielder improves ... Cook, who has been mediocre at best, isn't playing 70% of minutes anymore. Or he's improved enough. Same with Brumbaugh. If he doesn't improve, and we get a guard transfer and Mulready and Williams ... he's going to bench. And even the same with Styles -- we could three guard even if McKenna or there's no wing transfer. Those transfers don't have to be stars -- they just have to be better. c) Or those players improve. I don't expect Brumbaugh to be a negative contributor next year. I can see both Styles and Epps improving in terms of decision making. Fielder is already improving leaps and bounds -- just him going from 40% to 65-70% of minutes probably improves this team 2-3 points this year, much less with improvement in play. Would it better to get two absolutely stars in the transfer market? Sure. But even with the defensive assignment of BPM that says Heath is a much better defender than Epps, Epps is a 4.5 point better player than Heath -- and more, if you think they are closer in defensive ability (so, about 6 points per 100). That's about 4 in an actual game, but an Epps 2.0 transfer + Fielder improvement and minutes gets us about halfway there. Your target goals and timelines are jumping around on me. If your point is that this team isn't lock for a bid next year without major transfers in, I'd agree. I don't even think they are a lock to be a bubble team because I don't know how much improvement or what transfers or how good the freshmen will be. If you think we're doomed for three years from now, I think are engaging in a complete doom loop. But I think you are writing off players way too early, writing off Cooley way too early, and underestimating how many simple things to fix out there can be improved. If we had a healthy Epps and Massoud was half the player he was last year, we're very possibly 3-2 in the Big East this year and thinking differently. We're way off from contending, but we're not as functionally far from the middle of the pack as the numbers would imply, IMO.
|
|
|
Post by professorhoya on Jan 12, 2024 13:23:58 GMT -5
I cannot find the official rule and the rules are always changing but according to this website, you CANNOT stay at the same school where you earned your undergraduate degree: www.athleteroadmap.com/blog/understanding-ncaa-d1-graduate-transfer-ruleBut, I don't know how the COVID waivers impacted that, or if the rules have changed. The COVID waiver was for 2020-2021, so that will soon be obsolete anyway. You can definitely spend 4 years plus a grad year at the same school. The link above is talking about the one-time transfer exception - if you continue graduate study at the same institution, by definition you would not be a transfer and you would not need the one-time transfer exception. Can you provide an example of someone who spent 4 undergrad years at the same school then a grad year (5 years total while using 4 years Of eligibility with the last year being used during the grad year)
|
|
TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,458
|
Post by TC on Jan 12, 2024 13:35:55 GMT -5
In you're scenario what level of transfer do you think we come here to play backup to a team coming off a 10th place Big East finish and what impact can they really make that makes this team take a huge leap? Let's define the issue here - last year you had the issue that with 10 open slots on the roster and coming off of 2-37, you had a hard time convincing 5th years that you were going to be competitive enough to be worth signing on for their last year. What was at work there wasn't just the 2-37 record, but the 10 open slots and that no one wants to sign onto a roster that turns out to be vaporware. We're also not sure of what the NIL situation was last year. 2024 : - I don't have a crystal ball, but this year you probably enter the portal with either 3, 4, or 5 open slots. That is drastically different than 10, and much easier to recruit because recruits can see where they would fit and who they compete against. - supposedly we have the NIL issue worked out (see tweets from Trilly Donovan and John Fanta expressing that) - the talent level of your returning team is drastically better with the core and the freshman At the very least, do we think we're going to do worse than last year at the portal? Last year we pulled Epps, Styles, Rowan, and Cook out of the portal - with all of the issues that we were facing. Even if you don't improve on that at all and all you do is that you replicate the underclassman talent level you pulled in last year - that's enough to get us to the bubble with the freshman and the core. There's a lot of factors that I think are an additional help to us this year though - the pool that we are able to draw from may be much bigger if the year in residence for multiple-time transfers is abandoned, and it may involve players that Cooley has personal connections with that he was unable to draw last year.
|
|