BigmanU
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Post by BigmanU on Dec 4, 2017 13:50:17 GMT -5
I have no inside knowledge but the way his minutes are restricted, it looks like a redshirt year is actually on the table. He's only seen action in four games and logged a total of 18 minutes and only 5 minutes since game #2. Reminds me of Freshman Hayes minute restriction. Watch to see if Ewing only breaks the glass again in case of emergency. Except the rules are such that if you play ANY MINUTES you cannot qualify for a redshirt without an injury waiver or some other type of waiver. Ewing, the staff, and the athletic department clearly know that. So, if they intended on a redshirt, he would not have played thus far. Hayes did not get a redshirt. He got a waiver for an extra season largely resulting from personal family issues, including that his father died unexpectedly during his freshman year. His limited minutes were not the driving force. The more logical - and almost certainly correct - reason behind Sodom's minutes is that Ewing doesn't feel he's good enough to warrant them, and we have had closer games than you'd like to give Sodom ample playing time. I'm not doubting you, I'm not that tuned in when it comes to eligibility guidelines. I do notice for whatever reason, we seem to know how to squeeze extra eligibility out of our student athletes. Aaron Bowen's freshman year is another example. Did he break his leg or just sat down?
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Dec 4, 2017 13:51:50 GMT -5
We have the technology for this with the RPI wizard. If we beat Cuse; 7-11, beat Depaul and lose to Xavier in the BET = projected RPI 93 So there you go. Yeah, I was messing around with this, and even if we run the table and go 11-0 with a win over Syracuse, and even if we win 9 Big East games, and even if we make it to the freaking semi finals of the BE tourney with 20 total wins, we STILL barely have a top 80 RPI. That is how amazeballs bad our schedule is. Yes, this scenario is very unlikely...but still, geez.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Dec 4, 2017 14:02:57 GMT -5
I'm not doubting you, I'm not that tuned in when it comes to eligibility guidelines. I do notice for whatever reason, we seem to know how to squeeze extra eligibility out of our student athletes. Aaron Bowen's freshman year is another example. Did he break his leg or just sat down? Yes, Bowen had an injury - shoulder, I think. You're right that Georgetown has done a good job of getting waivers for players - Josh Smith comes to mind as well (if you recall, he wasn't going to be eligible until later December, and they allowed him to play immediately). I am not sure how much of that work is the coaching staff versus Georgetown's compliance people, but whoever did it under JT3 definitely got pretty good results.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Dec 4, 2017 14:06:09 GMT -5
Can't believe how "skinny" Govan has become. That took lots of work.
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BigmanU
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Post by BigmanU on Dec 4, 2017 14:08:54 GMT -5
We have the technology for this with the RPI wizard. If we beat Cuse; 7-11, beat Depaul and lose to Xavier in the BET = projected RPI 93 So there you go. Yeah, I was messing around with this, and even if we run the table and go 11-0 with a win over Syracuse, and even if we win 9 Big East games, and even if we make it to the freaking semi finals of the BE tourney with 20 total wins, we STILL barely have a top 80 RPI. That is how amazeballs bad our schedule is. Yes, this scenario is very unlikely...but still, geez. I'm pretty sure it depends on which 9 BEast teams are beaten. If Nova, Hall & X are in that scenario everything changes dramatically. Not saying it will happen but the numbers due adjust for augment's sake.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Dec 4, 2017 14:14:33 GMT -5
Yeah, I was messing around with this, and even if we run the table and go 11-0 with a win over Syracuse, and even if we win 9 Big East games, and even if we make it to the freaking semi finals of the BE tourney with 20 total wins, we STILL barely have a top 80 RPI. That is how amazeballs bad our schedule is. Yes, this scenario is very unlikely...but still, geez. I'm pretty sure it depends on which 9 BEast teams are beaten. If Nova, Hall & X are in that scenario everything changes dramatically. Not saying it will happen but the numbers due adjust for augment's sake. I dont think that is right. It doesnt change dramatically. As TC pointed out, 9 wins is 9 wins. (To be clear, I was saying 8-10, with 1-1 in the BE). If we beat Seton Hall, Xavier and Nova, that means we must have lost to some lesser teams. The only thing that dramatically improves your RPI in the BE is winning more games.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 4, 2017 14:24:51 GMT -5
We have the technology for this with the RPI wizard. If we beat Cuse; 7-11, beat Depaul and lose to Xavier in the BET = projected RPI 93 So there you go. Yeah, I was messing around with this, and even if we run the table and go 11-0 with a win over Syracuse, and even if we win 9 Big East games, and even if we make it to the freaking semi finals of the BE tourney with 20 total wins, we STILL barely have a top 80 RPI. That is how amazeballs bad our schedule is. Yes, this scenario is very unlikely...but still, geez. In most aspects, I'm ambivalent about the schedule. Oh, sure, it is boring and I suspect it needed to be a bit harder, but it's hard to blame Ewing for wanting extensive confidence builders and creampuffs to go against in year one. But man, imagine how much it is going to suck if the team goes over .500 in conference, makes some noise in the BET and still misses the tourney. What a disaster that would be.
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BigmanU
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Post by BigmanU on Dec 4, 2017 14:28:41 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure it depends on which 9 BEast teams are beaten. If Nova, Hall & X are in that scenario everything changes dramatically. Not saying it will happen but the numbers due adjust for augment's sake. I dont think that is right. It doesnt change dramatically. As TC pointed out, 9 wins is 9 wins. (To be clear, I was saying 8-10, with 1-1 in the BE). If we beat Seton Hall, Xavier and Nova, that means we must have lost to some lesser teams. The only thing that dramatically improves your RPI in the BE is winning more games. What if the losses were not against the three lower tiered teams (not including us of course) going 6-0 and knock off Nova, X & Hall.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Dec 4, 2017 14:29:35 GMT -5
Yeah, I was messing around with this, and even if we run the table and go 11-0 with a win over Syracuse, and even if we win 9 Big East games, and even if we make it to the freaking semi finals of the BE tourney with 20 total wins, we STILL barely have a top 80 RPI. That is how amazeballs bad our schedule is. Yes, this scenario is very unlikely...but still, geez. In most aspects, I'm ambivalent about the schedule. Oh, sure, it is boring and I suspect it needed to be a bit harder, but it's hard to blame Ewing for wanting extensive confidence builders and creampuffs to go against in year one. But man, imagine how much it is going to suck if the team goes over .500 in conference, makes some noise in the BET and still misses the tourney. What a disaster that would be. Right. I know it's annoying and likely unrealistic, but that's is the scenario that would suck the most. To use an example, a few weeks ago, I would have said there was no way we were going 11-0 in the OOC, and I think many people would have said the same. We havent played great, but now 11-0 isnt an insane scenario. What if that turns in 17-10 late in the season? I wonder how people would feel then.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Dec 4, 2017 14:32:51 GMT -5
I dont think that is right. It doesnt change dramatically. As TC pointed out, 9 wins is 9 wins. (To be clear, I was saying 8-10, with 1-1 in the BE). If we beat Seton Hall, Xavier and Nova, that means we must have lost to some lesser teams. The only thing that dramatically improves your RPI in the BE is winning more games. What if the losses were not against the three lower tiered teams (not including us of course) going 6-0 and knock off Nova, X & Hall. Im not an expert, but it shouldnt matter. If we split against Nova, X and Hall and sweep the lower 3 teams, doesnt that mean we got swept by the middle teams? That would seem to create the same result, no?
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 4, 2017 14:33:55 GMT -5
Yeah, I was messing around with this, and even if we run the table and go 11-0 with a win over Syracuse, and even if we win 9 Big East games, and even if we make it to the freaking semi finals of the BE tourney with 20 total wins, we STILL barely have a top 80 RPI. That is how amazeballs bad our schedule is. Yes, this scenario is very unlikely...but still, geez. I'm pretty sure it depends on which 9 BEast teams are beaten. If Nova, Hall & X are in that scenario everything changes dramatically. Not saying it will happen but the numbers due adjust for augment's sake. It doesn't at the end of the season. The winning percentages are weighted by home and away, but a win against Villanova is great, but the loss against St John's (or whatever) is equally terrible. It's simply net w/l, net opponent's (and opponent's) winning percentage, and the net h/a/neutral that all of you have. The NCAA Committee will definitely rate a record with bigs wins and big losses over a team that beat all the NIT teams and lost to all the NCAA teams, but RPI does take it into account.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Dec 4, 2017 14:38:05 GMT -5
In most aspects, I'm ambivalent about the schedule. Oh, sure, it is boring and I suspect it needed to be a bit harder, but it's hard to blame Ewing for wanting extensive confidence builders and creampuffs to go against in year one. But man, imagine how much it is going to suck if the team goes over .500 in conference, makes some noise in the BET and still misses the tourney. What a disaster that would be. Right. I know it's annoying and likely unrealistic, but that's is the scenario that would suck the most. To use an example, a few weeks ago, I would have said there was no way we were going 11-0 in the OOC, and I think many people would have said the same. We havent played great, but now 11-0 isnt an insane scenario. What if that turns in 17-10 late in the season? I wonder how people would feel then. The reason the schedule argument is pointless is that this is the only scenario where the people that hate the schedule (myself included) can say look we were right. The chances of this happening is very low. If we suck in BE the pro schedule people will say "wee we weren't good enough and we would have so many losses". If we are decent but not in the barely miss the tourney scenario they will say "look how that easy schedule helped us improve". I will say I have not seen improvement in this team and I didn't even see yesterday which seems like it was the worst. Sodom has not been getting minutes which was supposedly another selling point of the easy schedule. We don't even have a consistent break out performer that seems to have gained confidence from playing these teams except maybe Kaleb so it hasn't helped that. We aren't ffoling anyone, except 1 AP voter I guess, with the inflated record. The only positive, which may be a negative if he leaves, I see is that Jessie is padding his numbers so he will likely get postseason accolades which may help get a big man recruit.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Dec 4, 2017 14:40:46 GMT -5
Right. I know it's annoying and likely unrealistic, but that's is the scenario that would suck the most. To use an example, a few weeks ago, I would have said there was no way we were going 11-0 in the OOC, and I think many people would have said the same. We havent played great, but now 11-0 isnt an insane scenario. What if that turns in 17-10 late in the season? I wonder how people would feel then. The reason the schedule argument is pointless is that this is the only scenario where the people that hate the schedule (myself included) can say look we were right. The chances of this happening is very low. If we suck in BE the pro schedule people will say "wee we weren't good enough and we would have so many losses". If we are decent but not in the barely miss the tourney scenario they will say "look how that easy schedule helped us improve". I will say I have not seen improvement in this team and I didn't even see yesterday which seems like it was the worst. Sodom has not been getting minutes which was supposedly another selling point of the easy schedule. We don't even have a consistent break out performer that seems to have gained confidence from playing these teams except maybe Kaleb so it hasn't helped that. We aren't ffoling anyone, except 1 AP voter I guess, with the inflated record. The only positive, which may be a negative if he leaves, I see is that Jessie is padding his numbers so he will likely get postseason accolades which may help get a big man recruit. Agreed. I have no quibble with that point. It is very unlikely.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Dec 4, 2017 14:52:40 GMT -5
Here's a quick experiment with RPI Forecast:
- If we go 11-0, and then win the 9 "easiest" (based on current odds) Big East games, we end up: 20-9, RPI 65, SOS 103.
The "easiest" wins are: DePaul (home & away), Marquette (home), Butler (home), St. John's (home), Providence (home), Creighton (home), Marquette (away), Seton Hall (home).
- If we go 11-0 and then substitute in some good wins (ex. Villanova), but still go 9-9, our record is still 20-9, RPI is still 65, and SOS is still 103.
For this experiment, I assume we beat Villanova twice and Xavier twice, but assume we now lose to Seton Hall home, Marquette away, Creighton home, and Providence home. All else remains the same.
In contrast, under both scenarios, if we lose to Syracuse but keep all else the same, our RPI falls to 80/81.
So in sum, if we get to 9-9, who we beat in the Big East doesn't impact our RPI all that much - in fact, the Syracuse game is the single biggest game influence on our RPI. That doesn't meant it doesn't matter. For example, if we beat Villanova and Xavier twice, that would look good to the tournament committee. In contrast, under that first scenario we'd have fewer top 50 wins.
Still, this is yet another great illustration of why even if we go 9-9 in the Big East, a tournament bid is very unlikely. And if we lose to Syracuse it's even worse.
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Post by glidehoyas (Inactive) on Dec 4, 2017 15:07:17 GMT -5
We are not a good team right now, and nobody is fooled by the record. Coach is using these cupcake games to determine the rotation when we play the big boys. Doesn't mean we will be good then either, but is this really a surprise? The program is climbing out of a deep hole, and patience is required. right
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thedragon
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Post by thedragon on Dec 4, 2017 15:08:46 GMT -5
A lot of you guys live on fantasy island. This team is not going to the NCAA tournament. Ewing never had any expectations of going to the tournament. Listen to our coach and his advocates...
Ewing said in a multitude of interviews before the season to be patient, that this was a complete rebuild, and that we simply don't have the horses currently to compete.
Van Gundy has been quoted in multiple interviews that he told Ewing that 14-18 (matching last years win-loss total) is the benchmark Ewing should shoot for and would be a huge accomplishment.
This team's cupboard is BARE!!!! There is not a big east caliber guard on the roster. Behind Jesse and Marcus, there is not a single warm body who can play high major 4 or 5 position. And our 2 best shooters are true freshmen.
RPI / the schedule / big east wins are some of the most inane arguments and discussions to have this season on a board full of inane discussion.
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Post by glidehoyas (Inactive) on Dec 4, 2017 15:12:01 GMT -5
If you're not Kansas it will be hard to beat the 2-3 zone. This young people have no idea of it.
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Post by glidehoyas (Inactive) on Dec 4, 2017 15:28:38 GMT -5
FREE THE RIM PROTECTOR #FREESODOM
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Dec 4, 2017 15:58:14 GMT -5
A lot of you guys live on fantasy island. This team is not going to the NCAA tournament. Ewing never had any expectations of going to the tournament. Listen to our coach and his advocates... Ewing said in a multitude of interviews before the season to be patient, that this was a complete rebuild, and that we simply don't have the horses currently to compete. Van Gundy has been quoted in multiple interviews that he told Ewing that 14-18 (matching last years win-loss total) is the benchmark Ewing should shoot for and would be a huge accomplishment. This team's cupboard is BARE!!!! There is not a big east caliber guard on the roster. Behind Jesse and Marcus, there is not a single warm body who can play high major 4 or 5 position. And our 2 best shooters are true freshmen. RPI / the schedule / big east wins are some of the most inane arguments and discussions to have this season on a board full of inane discussion. Is there a topic you'd prefer to discuss? I think we'd all be willing to do so. Personally, I think how we look during "MEAC Week" is not all that interesting. But, to each his/her own. Frankly, I havent even bothered watching or going to these games. So, that is why I think the schedule matters. If we were playing Maryland this week, I might care. Beating the 7 worst teams in America isnt doing much. I think that's why people talk about it. Just my opinion.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Dec 4, 2017 16:06:05 GMT -5
A couple of random thoughts. (1). It sure looks and feels like Sodom may red shirt this year. I actually think he’d benefit from it. If he can’t get in versus Coppin State, I just don’t see him playing once conference starts. I cannot understand how someone who was so plugged into the program has opinions that are so absurd as "Sodom will redshirt". Not only does what FrazierFanatic says about playing one minute / needing a season ending injury apply, but the growing trend of 4th year grad transfers means that : - you shoot yourself in the foot on frontcourt depth for this year if you redshirt Sodom - what if there's an injury to Govan or Derrickson? - hypothetically, if you somehow manipulate the rules and get Sodom a redshirt year, he probably doesn't play his awarded year at Georgetown. You give a kid a fifth year, he's a free agent. So there's absolutely zero benefit to GU to redshirting the kid now for some payoff down the road for some other school - this team is awful, and we've already eliminated ourselves from the postseason with this schedule - why would you not just play the kid? Govan, Johnson, Mulmore, and Derrickson are not going to be parts of a GU tournament team. You want to get back to the tournament? Play Sodom. Play Walker. Play Mosely. Play Pickett. Play Blair. Agree on Sodom. Pat doesn't have the luxury to redshirt Sodom, like Pops had with Dikembe. Disagree that Govan, Johnson and Derrickson will not be parts of a tournament team. Unless Govan leaves after this year, we're going back next year. Good, complimentary talent coming in that plays like Pat wants and addresses recurring flaws, and a proven and experienced player in transfer Greg, to mix with senior team captain Kaleb who I want to see how much more he improves with another off-season of workouts and confidence, a leaner Marcus and a leaner, meaner Govan makes us a tournament team. That said, help is needed and wanted.
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