guru
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Post by guru on Mar 12, 2015 10:11:11 GMT -5
Understand your reasoning but losing tonight could significantly affect seeding. As a 5 seed the HOYAS could get a much easier path than as an 8 seed. I can easily see a loss to Creighton dropping the HOYAS into the 8 seed range. A win with a loss to Butler or Xavier would not have anywhere near the consequences. If you think this game means a swing between the 5th and the 8th seed, I don't know what to tell you. That's just not the case. We are locked in at 6. We could just as easily get pared with an 11 and a 3 in our pod who aren't as good as the 12 and 4 we might see if we get a 5 seed. And I shouldn't have to remind you that high seeding hasn't helped us at all recently. I didn't say nothing could be gained, only that the game just isn't that important. I think we could drop to a 7 with a loss tonight, as it would eliminate our "no bad losses" check mark, which honestly is one of our strongest given our paucity of really good wins. But no way we drop to an 8.
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Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 12, 2015 10:13:18 GMT -5
Honestly, dude, I think you are just trying to psych yourself out for this game. I dont blame you, Ive been there. But your arguments are all over the place. They aren't all over the place at all. Saying that today's game is the least important of the season isn't saying that I don't want to or expect to win it. I don't know why you seem to be arguing the point (it isn't that important of a point at all) and yet you won't pick a game--any game!--from the season to date and argue that this game is more important. And yes, I am being exceedingly rational. There are several scenarios in which Creighton wins the game today. They aren't the better team, but they can certainly win. I realize rationality isn't very much fun on a message board where people love to talk about emotion and meaningless, unmeasureable soft factors, and the head coach's supposed failure to use timeouts, etc.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 12, 2015 10:16:29 GMT -5
You said it was the least important and least impactful game of the season. If you want to support that argument, you would have to prove how this is true, not just point out that some other games are more important. You also said that it might be good to be humiliated, and then when Frazier said that would hurt our confidence, you said things like that were nonsense. Does that mean humiliation has a stronger effect than confidence? Again, I feel you. I hate games like this that we are supposed to win and I start rationalizing them, too.
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Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 12, 2015 10:17:22 GMT -5
We have won plenty of BET games since 2007. But only 1 NCAA game. The two have no relationship, and the former has certainly never been prep for the latter. I don't see how anyone can dispute that it's generally better to be playing well and remain healthy going into the NCAAs than to be not playing well and/or to be unhealthy. Sure, neither guarantees success or failure, but one is still better than the other. If we put up a stinker tonight, of course we can still get to the Sweet 16, but I'd still rather play well and win. The only risk in a tournament like this (aside from injury) is that you win in a fools-gold sort of way or you stink so badly your confidence is ruined. That is, as to the former, your run to the championship is through bad teams due to upsets, or you beat good teams but because they missed a ton of open shots or you happened to make a lot of bad (contested) shots. That can bleed over into the following week. As to the latter, lose to Creighton and there's a risk there's some significant mental doubt. I don't see any significant risk of "fatigue." It's three games in three days...not four or (worse) the five that are in some tournaments. And we've got four whole days off afterward. Play well and stay healthy are the primary goals, and if we do both of those things, the odds are very good that we win today anyway (and decent odds we win tomorrow, too). I see no benefit (aside from a higher likelihood of health) in losing. We don't need a wake up call. Coach and (more importantly) the juniors/seniors aren't going to let the youngsters (or themselves) take Stephen F. Austin lightly. And as for a seed? Sure, you could get stuck with a bad matchup even with a better seed or you could even get stuck with a better team if you get screwed, but the odds are still better that you play a worse team the higher your seed is. Maybe it's all a marginal difference, but I'll take advantages at the margins! I'm not disagreeing with anything you've said here except to the extent that you think losing today would somehow change the team's outlook. It just won't. There just isn't any statistical evidence of "momentum" from one game to another, and losing one game to a team that beat Oklahoma and hung recently with Villanova doesn't mean we "aren't playing well" or some other general description. It means we lost a game to a lesser team playing for its tournament life and capable of beating tournament teams. I think everybody gets my point now. I'll cease.
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by guru on Mar 12, 2015 10:18:24 GMT -5
Uh, it would have a bigger impact on seeding because it would be by far our worst loss and meanwhile other teams would keep playing to pass us, notably the teams that would directly benefit from our loss- Butler, Xavier, Providence. But, again, we are going to win. Obviously I'm talking about looking at these games from an ex ante perspective--i.e. you don't know going in what the result is going to be and assess the importance on that basis. So by your comment, you're conceding that every game against teams worse than Creighton from an RPI standpoint was more important than today's game (because those would have been worse losses than today would be). That leaves the games against teams not worse than Creighton. I would argue that placement in the conference standings is more important for seeding purposes than today's game is, and therefore by definition every regular season game that would have impacted our place in the standings (i.e. all of them), was more important going into the game than today's game. I suppose one could debate that point, but it seems pretty clear to me. So that eliminates the conference games and the games against teams worse than Creighton (i.e. the bulk of the non-conference schedule). That leaves only a handful of games: Florida, Wisconsin, Butler, Indiana, and Kansas, I believe. Do you think that the game today is as important or more important than those games were going in? Each was a chance for a significant non-conference victory against a quality team better than Creighton is. I'd argue all of them were more important than today's game is. This may be confirmation bias but I feel like when BD starts posting torrents of these kinda sorta negative stuff, we always end up with one of our humiliating losses. Guess what I'm saying is: Please stop
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 12, 2015 10:18:57 GMT -5
If you think this game means a swing between the 5th and the 8th seed, I don't know what to tell you. That's just not the case. We are locked in at 6. We could just as easily get pared with an 11 and a 3 in our pod who aren't as good as the 12 and 4 we might see if we get a 5 seed. And I shouldn't have to remind you that high seeding hasn't helped us at all recently. I didn't say nothing could be gained, only that the game just isn't that important. I think we could drop to a 7 with a loss tonight, as it would eliminate our "no bad losses" check mark, which honestly is one of our strongest given our paucity of really good wins. But no way we drop to an 8. There's no way for me to prove you wrong today, obviously. I just refuse to believe that the 2nd place team in the 2nd best conference in the country with our SOS numbers and regular season resume is going to drop behind 5 other teams or whatever. Maybe in a perfect storm of a Butler-Providence final, an Oklahoma Big 12 championship, and assorted other nonsense, but its seems to me to be highly highly highly unlikely.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 12, 2015 10:21:40 GMT -5
Obviously I'm talking about looking at these games from an ex ante perspective--i.e. you don't know going in what the result is going to be and assess the importance on that basis. So by your comment, you're conceding that every game against teams worse than Creighton from an RPI standpoint was more important than today's game (because those would have been worse losses than today would be). That leaves the games against teams not worse than Creighton. I would argue that placement in the conference standings is more important for seeding purposes than today's game is, and therefore by definition every regular season game that would have impacted our place in the standings (i.e. all of them), was more important going into the game than today's game. I suppose one could debate that point, but it seems pretty clear to me. So that eliminates the conference games and the games against teams worse than Creighton (i.e. the bulk of the non-conference schedule). That leaves only a handful of games: Florida, Wisconsin, Butler, Indiana, and Kansas, I believe. Do you think that the game today is as important or more important than those games were going in? Each was a chance for a significant non-conference victory against a quality team better than Creighton is. I'd argue all of them were more important than today's game is. This may be confirmation bias but I feel like when BD starts posting torrents of these kinda sorta negative stuff, we always end up with one of our humiliating losses. Guess what I'm saying is: Please stop I'm not being negative in the slightest. I expect us to win and we are the better team. How many times do I have to say that? I am just attacking--Moneyball-style--all of the "soft factors" gibberish that doesn't mean anything, can't be measured, and probably doesn't even exist. Also, I don't recall even posting before any of our "humiliating losses."
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Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 12, 2015 10:22:26 GMT -5
Obviously I'm talking about looking at these games from an ex ante perspective--i.e. you don't know going in what the result is going to be and assess the importance on that basis. So by your comment, you're conceding that every game against teams worse than Creighton from an RPI standpoint was more important than today's game (because those would have been worse losses than today would be). That leaves the games against teams not worse than Creighton. I would argue that placement in the conference standings is more important for seeding purposes than today's game is, and therefore by definition every regular season game that would have impacted our place in the standings (i.e. all of them), was more important going into the game than today's game. I suppose one could debate that point, but it seems pretty clear to me. So that eliminates the conference games and the games against teams worse than Creighton (i.e. the bulk of the non-conference schedule). That leaves only a handful of games: Florida, Wisconsin, Butler, Indiana, and Kansas, I believe. Do you think that the game today is as important or more important than those games were going in? Each was a chance for a significant non-conference victory against a quality team better than Creighton is. I'd argue all of them were more important than today's game is. This may be confirmation bias but I feel like when BD starts posting torrents of these kinda sorta negative stuff, we always end up with one of our humiliating losses. Guess what I'm saying is: Please stop That said I can tell the nerves are starting to get a little bit raw around here as tournament time approaches. PTSD coming out in full effect. If being the punching bag is the way for other posters to cope with stress, I happily accept.
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by guru on Mar 12, 2015 10:28:44 GMT -5
This may be confirmation bias but I feel like when BD starts posting torrents of these kinda sorta negative stuff, we always end up with one of our humiliating losses. Guess what I'm saying is: Please stop That said I can tell the nerves are starting to get a little bit raw around here as tournament time approaches. PTSD coming out in full effect. If being the punching bag is the way for other posters to cope with stress, I happily accept. Maybe it was just before all the Marquette losses. Anyway, I was joking. I don't think your posting will actually affect tonight's outcome.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Mar 12, 2015 10:29:49 GMT -5
I get that losing today won't end the season but I think it's very important that the team continues to beat the teams it's supposed to beat.. The BET should be viewed as prep for next week in that it's a win or you're out scenario.. I personally hope they're not looking past this week, take care of your business in NYC 1st.. We have won plenty of BET games since 2007. But only 1 NCAA game. The two have no relationship, and the former has certainly never been prep for the latter. The team has also lost 1st round BET games and then gone on to lose NCAA 1st round games too.. So your motivation after a loss theory isn't proven either.. One of the best things about this team is the fact it doesn't have any bad losses, I'd like that to continue.. That's why I think this game has importance, it's not the end of the world obviously but losing wouldn't be a good look in my view..
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 12, 2015 10:29:49 GMT -5
That said I can tell the nerves are starting to get a little bit raw around here as tournament time approaches. PTSD coming out in full effect. If being the punching bag is the way for other posters to cope with stress, I happily accept. Maybe it was just before all the Marquette losses. Anyway, I was joking. I don't think your posting will actually affect tonight's outcome. Ha! You have correctly identified the one area in which emotionally rational Big Dog goes completely out the window. Good call.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Mar 12, 2015 10:34:29 GMT -5
I agree with Big Dog and others that making the NCAAs and doing well there matters more than the Big East Tournament. But I don't agree that this is our least important game of the season. It's very important for many reasons, most of which have been covered already above. And while confidence/momentum is immeasurable by statistics, it's something that you like to have on your side. I've never bought into the "well, we got that bad game out of our system, we'll bounce back next time" philosophy, you always want to win and keep winning. Doesn't mean if we lose tonight we need to go into a full blown panic about our NCAA advancement chances (which I think is what BD is trying to say in a way), but still you want to be playing your best ball now and not lay a stinker.
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TBird41
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"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 12, 2015 10:39:38 GMT -5
We're the only thing standing between a newcomer to the Big East getting to play in the BET Finals. If we don't make it, one of Butler, Creighton or Xavier will get a shot to be the first newbie to win the tournament. And as much as I'd like the newcomers to be good, that doesn't mean I want them to be the champions of our conference. Seems like a good enough reason to win the next two games.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Mar 12, 2015 10:51:10 GMT -5
Holy HoyaTalk Batman. Get this win Hoyas!
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sleepy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by sleepy on Mar 12, 2015 10:56:48 GMT -5
I'm not sure how we had so much success against Creighton before. They expose all of our defensive weaknesses, they can shoot the 3, have a big man inside that can score, and guards that can penetrate. I think this is going to be a dogfight we will be lucky to survive.
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TBird41
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"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 12, 2015 11:03:36 GMT -5
I'm not sure how we had so much success against Creighton before. They expose all of our defensive weaknesses, they can shoot the 3, have a big man inside that can score, and guards that can penetrate. I think this is going to be a dogfight we will be lucky to survive. And yet we are 3-1 against them in the past two years, including a 12 point win over the best team their program has ever had, during which our worst defensive team held the third best offense in the country to 39% from the floor. My guess is that we generally don't gamble and our defense is designed to force missed shots, rather than turnovers. They've never shot their season average against us--even in their one win they only shot 46% from the floor.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 12, 2015 11:03:47 GMT -5
I'm not sure how we had so much success against Creighton before. They expose all of our defensive weaknesses, they can shoot the 3, have a big man inside that can score, and guards that can penetrate. I think this is going to be a dogfight we will be lucky to survive. Are you being sarcastic? I can't tell.
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Post by JohnnyJones on Mar 12, 2015 11:05:25 GMT -5
I'm not sure how we had so much success against Creighton before. They expose all of our defensive weaknesses, they can shoot the 3, have a big man inside that can score, and guards that can penetrate. I think this is going to be a dogfight we will be lucky to survive. Are you being sarcastic? I can't tell. I wish he was, but I am almost certain he is not.
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FLHoya
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Proud Member of Generation Burton
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Post by FLHoya on Mar 12, 2015 11:07:56 GMT -5
Seton Hall and Providence have won more Big East tournaments since 1990 than we have. Other fun stats that might come in handy this week: --Villanova hasn't even been to the BET Final since 1997. --Ed Cooley and JTIII are the only two coaches in the conference to win a BET. --Among current conference members, only us, Providence, and St. John's (2000) have won the BET this millennium.
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Post by grandmahoya on Mar 12, 2015 11:12:56 GMT -5
Every game IS important. Play for HOYA Pride and silence the critics that call us inconsistent!
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