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Post by Problem of Dog on Mar 13, 2012 13:13:01 GMT -5
Larry David mode activated Jeez, all I said was "Your 'model?'" Some of you act like I slept with the guy's crazy sister. He said his model predicts a one point GU win. I just wanted to know what model he was talking about. Does he have a website? Is it his 8th grade science project? Just curious. I have a model that competes with the KenPom model. Not a lot of differences between the two. Similarly, KenPom has us winning by 2 points. |
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rosslynhoya
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Post by rosslynhoya on Mar 13, 2012 13:27:10 GMT -5
By the way, arent we the only local team in the tourney? I wonder when the last time that happened? Depends on your definition of "local," I think. Jimmy Patsos and his Greyhounds got a nice writeup in the Examiner today. I think they're close enough to DC to count as local (not going to google maps to see if they're actually closer than Hoo-ville). |
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Post by drjimcooper on Mar 13, 2012 14:40:35 GMT -5
I LOL'd at this: Derived From a Latin Chant — 1 Hoyas |
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on Mar 13, 2012 15:36:16 GMT -5
Not to derail but what Internet model are you familiar with that starts with a pay service and then moves to "free"? The Internet pattern I'm familiar with tends to start with something that is free (to get it out there and get you hooked) and then transition to either ad-supported or pay, or both. The major newspapers all followed this model. Places like Hulu (upgrade to HuluPlus) and Netflix streaming (which was originally a "free" add on to those who were getting the DVDs) have moved to a charge. And this is particularly true with apps -- you can only view Hulu on your Ipad if you upgrade to HuluPlus, as one example. I guess i was think more about streaming television direct from station sites. Many were weary to stream their content at first (implicitly saying you need to pay for cable to see it), but now most stream their stuff free. The analogy isnt perfect and the industry is in flux so, yeah, im not one hundred percent correct. |
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on Mar 13, 2012 19:13:29 GMT -5
Dan Pfeiffer, White House rep, says Obama tried to get Cameron to reschedule visit to see the Gtown game, but no dice. Too bad because it would have meant another blow out for Gtown
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 13, 2012 22:04:37 GMT -5
Boy, Seth Davis is going all in on Belmont beating us--I've seen it come up today on SI.com, on Twitter, and on TruTV tonight. Will be fun to see what he says when the Hoyas win. Of course, most likely he'll say nothing. That's why its so easy to pick upsets--its like playing with house money. Belmont lost!? Well, of course they did! They're a 14 seed!
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Mar 13, 2012 22:36:32 GMT -5
Excerpt from espn.com:
As we promised in the Giant Killers blog, on Monday we began detailed breakdowns of all the round of 64 games with GK implications.
Now that we all have brackets in hand, it's time for a detailed look at how our Giant Killers statistical model sees NCAA tournament matchups. We'll go region by region, and, as we did in 2011, we will sort potential upsets into four categories: Best Bets, Worth a Long Look, Not Completely Crazy and Stay Away. These names should be pretty self-explanatory -- Best Bets have a decent chance to win outright, and Stay Aways are likely to lose no matter what. But we can't tell you exactly how to fill out your brackets because that depends on how heavily your particular pool rewards upsets. The more points you score when underdogs win, the more you should be willing to pick high-risk teams.
In case you've forgotten, a Giant Killer is a team that beats an opponent seeded at least five spots better and doesn't come from a BCS conference. Other teams -- Gonzaga, Butler, BYU, Temple and Xavier -- are excluded because of their historical success. (Check out our methodology for a full explanation.) Our model generates statistical ratings that compare potential Giant Killers to past Davids as well as all Giants to the Goliaths who were slain. Those ratings enable us to predict the chances of an upset in each matchup.
We continue in the Midwest, the lightest region in terms of Giant Killers matchups. But there appears to be one juicy upset just waiting to happen.
Upset picks in the South | East | West | Midwest
MIDWEST REGION
BEST BET
No. 14 Belmont (40.6 Giant Killer score, on a 100-point scale) vs. No. 3 Georgetown (30.9 Vulnerability score, on a 100-point scale)
Upset chance: 29.6 percent
A year ago, Belmont's 3-point shooting and turnover-machine-of-a-defense earned it 30 wins and valentines from statheads, but the Bruins ran into the worst possible opponent at tournament time: beastly Wisconsin, which was simply too much to handle inside. Now, the Bruins are back, with just slight modifications, and once again they rate as the top Killer in the NCAA field. Their case is straightforward. They shoot 3s with deadly accuracy -- 38.1 percent as a team, and keep an eye on Drew Hanlen, who's at 48.1 percent -- while taking care of the ball (turnovers on just 17.6 percent of possessions). But they don't sacrifice inside presence: They're shooting 54.7 percent, seventh best in the country, on 2-pointers and collect offensive rebounds on 34.5 percent of misses (ranking 84th). If our model could hum, even it might not sound as efficient as Belmont's offense. Meanwhile, keyed by Kerron Johnson (who clearly is gunning for the All-GK Team) the Bruins nab steals on 10.6 percent of opponent possessions and force turnovers on 20.9 percent. Both numbers are down from last year but still good enough to keep Belmont's defense among the top quarter of all teams.
And in Georgetown, Belmont has drawn a mighty interesting opponent. The Hoyas limit opponents to just 26.6 percent shooting on 3-point attempts, the lowest rate in the country. Irresistible force, meet immovable object! Georgetown is also tough inside and uses its size to block 13.5 percent of opponent shots (ranking 25th). But although the Hoyas don't make a mess of turnovers the way they did last year, they rank just 133rd in the country in protecting the ball, which is the single most important skill Giants need to avoid early upsets. The Hoyas are also very vulnerable to steals (10.5 percent of possessions, ranking 256th) -- Belmont's signature defensive threat. And their offense, although significantly better than their deadening pace makes it seem, is not built for comebacks. It's built on passing inside, with only middle-of-the-pack 3-point shooting -- not good news against the kind of runs Belmont can put together.
Look, Georgetown is a fine team. The Hoyas also are overappreciated because they beat expectations. And they're overseeded (BPI: 18). Belmont isn't just a good team. The Bruins are underappreciated because they come from a mid-major conference and because they went out in one round last year despite geeks such as us talking them up. And they're underseeded (BPI: 35). But, most important, the Bruins play precisely the kind of hoops that characterizes the best Giant Killers. Call it smart-risk/high-reward. And watch it close the talent gap between a 3 and a 14.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Mar 13, 2012 22:45:58 GMT -5
Ask Marquette if we're built for comebacks. We win this one and it won't be a nail biter.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Mar 13, 2012 22:51:25 GMT -5
My favorite part is that we're overappreciated for exceeding expectations. How did our guys do that? By playing well. How does one overappreciate that? Do I underappreciate UConn by that logic? ESPN sucks.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 13, 2012 22:55:48 GMT -5
Aside from the "not built for comebacks" comment, the "overseeded" comment based on ESPN's made-up BPI, and the stupidity of over/under-appreciation (which means what?), there's nothing really wrong with that analysis in general.
A 70/30 chance of us winning? That seems pretty reasonable. And our turnovers issues and their 3 pt proficiency are potential problems.
We need to own the boards, play calm and smart. We should win, but Belmont is a good team and it's not like an "upset" would be an historic event.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 13, 2012 23:04:47 GMT -5
Aside from the "not built for comebacks" comment, the "overseeded" comment based on ESPN's made-up BPI, and the stupidity of over/under-appreciation (which means what?), there's nothing really wrong with that analysis in general. A 70/30 chance of us winning? That seems pretty reasonable. And our turnovers issues and their 3 pt proficiency are potential problems. We need to own the boards, play calm and smart. We should win, but Belmont is a good team and it's not like an "upset" would be an historic event. I'd actually agree 100% that our offense this year is not built for comebacks. I'd say Marquette was more of a fluke/them choking/our defense than anything our offense did. We just can't put up points fast enough/consistently enough to make a decent comeback later in the game. We either need to make slow/deliberate "comebacks" or slowly methodically pull away. We aren't going to blitz teams with 10 points in two minutes like other teams can. |
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tjm62
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Post by tjm62 on Mar 13, 2012 23:13:41 GMT -5
This game will be close if Jason Clark and Hollis Thompson remain MIA. We can still win if they do, but it will be an awful lot harder.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 13, 2012 23:16:13 GMT -5
Comebacks are led by defense, not offense. Runs need stops.
Also, defense and rebounding keep games close until the shots start falling.
In this game, we need to own the paint and deny the three point line.
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on Mar 13, 2012 23:26:28 GMT -5
Comebacks are led by defense, not offense. Runs need stops. Also, defense and rebounding keep games close until the shots start falling. In this game, we need to own the paint and deny the three point line. Case in point is the Iona game tonight. Iona stopped scoring and BYU stuck to their game. |
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Mar 13, 2012 23:48:08 GMT -5
Comebacks are led by defense, not offense. Runs need stops. Also, defense and rebounding keep games close until the shots start falling. In this game, we need to own the paint and deny the three point line. I agree. With regard to our guys specifically, our defense is definitely designed for comebacks but, when played right, comebacks from large deficits shouldn't be necessary. We have the ability to stay in games. |
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biggmanu
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Post by biggmanu on Mar 14, 2012 0:42:24 GMT -5
How does the board think JT3 is going to mix up our defensive looks to confuse and stifle Belmont's offense?
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 14, 2012 1:24:09 GMT -5
How does the board think JT3 is going to mix up our defensive looks to confuse and stifle Belmont's offense? Probably what he always does, man to man, to a 2-3 zone, back to man, to a match up 3-2 zone, to a 2-3 zone, back to an intense switching man to man that may turn into a zone half way through. There are time whole possessions go by and I'm not sure what defense we are in. The are time whole possessions go by and I am convinced half the players on the floor don't know what defense we are in. All of the defense will probably have an increased focus on taking away 3 attempts and making them pass over our length. Does anyone know the type of athleticism we will have to deal with on Friday? I mean are these the super fast blow by you type of guards that will burn you if you over play the 3? Or can we afford to over play a bit and make it up with some athleticism and length? Luckily we have solid switch and rotations this year so it's not the end of the world if we can't but I'd feel a lot better if I knew we weren't going up against VCU part 2. Even Ohio's guards were extremely quick and athletic. |
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dense
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Post by dense on Mar 14, 2012 3:12:10 GMT -5
How does the board think JT3 is going to mix up our defensive looks to confuse and stifle Belmont's offense? Probably what he always does, man to man, to a 2-3 zone, back to man, to a match up 3-2 zone, to a 2-3 zone, back to an intense switching man to man that may turn into a zone half way through. There are time whole possessions go by and I'm not sure what defense we are in. The are time whole possessions go by and I am convinced half the players on the floor don't know what defense we are in. All of the defense will probably have an increased focus on taking away 3 attempts and making them pass over our length. Does anyone know the type of athleticism we will have to deal with on Friday? I mean are these the super fast blow by you type of guards that will burn you if you over play the 3? Or can we afford to over play a bit and make it up with some athleticism and length? Luckily we have solid switch and rotations this year so it's not the end of the world if we can't but I'd feel a lot better if I knew we weren't going up against VCU part 2. Even Ohio's guards were extremely quick and athletic. No. Belmont has one guard who can drive and score their own PG Karron Johnson. He is a lefty who can get in the lane but when he does its mostly to score himself. The other two guards Hanlen and Clark who start are shooters mostly. Clark can score off the dribble and pull-ups but he isn't a 2 bounce get to the rim draw contact type. Hanlen is really slow and small, but he hits every open unchallenged 3. He is the leading 3 point shooter in the NCAA and the owner of a ugly push shot. |
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dense
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Post by dense on Mar 14, 2012 3:16:20 GMT -5
Also most of the games I watched this week of them, they didn't press and the commentators said Coach Byrd thinks this team cant press like his old teams. So they just play man-to-man and some match-up zone. I think they will attempt to try to press us because of the line-up we are gonna put out there.
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Post by bigelephant on Mar 14, 2012 8:13:42 GMT -5
Is the game going to be TV'ed in the DC area?
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