GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 13, 2012 6:48:44 GMT -5
Larry David mode activated True indeed. It kinda helps because Curb is not in season right now and KC does a fine impersonation. You just have to take him with a grain of salt and if you engage, well, you know what you will get. I thought this was a pretty fair question...I am still wondering about this model that has us 1 point favorite. Not trying to be snarky. I saw that Nate Silver's model has us 55/45 favorites. I still think that undersells us, but if you are going on pure numbers, you are going to see that Belmont won a lot of games by a lot and lost most of their games by a few points. |
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hoyatables
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,605
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Post by hoyatables on Mar 13, 2012 7:28:33 GMT -5
There are apparently promo codes out there that you can put in to watch the games for free. Here is one of them that I have seen (though haven't tried yet). "Text 0Mizzou (that is zero Mizzou) to 2653 and you'll get a code from Coke Zero to watch the games for free." So who is going to try it first? There is no reason it SHOULD be free, and $4 isnt alot, but its an odd time to start charging. Usually it goes the other way: pay first then it becomes free. I think they chose this year because every game is on TV so they want to push people to watch that. I dont have work those days (well technically I work from home and make my own hours) so I can jump around to watch all I want. But I was looking forward to setting up a second screen to watch more game than once. Cant do that now because I dont have a second cable box. Will probably go for an "illegal" feed (really all charging will do is push people back to illegal means). Not to derail but what Internet model are you familiar with that starts with a pay service and then moves to "free"? The Internet pattern I'm familiar with tends to start with something that is free (to get it out there and get you hooked) and then transition to either ad-supported or pay, or both. The major newspapers all followed this model. Places like Hulu (upgrade to HuluPlus) and Netflix streaming (which was originally a "free" add on to those who were getting the DVDs) have moved to a charge. And this is particularly true with apps -- you can only view Hulu on your Ipad if you upgrade to HuluPlus, as one example. |
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biggmanu
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 672
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Post by biggmanu on Mar 13, 2012 8:13:25 GMT -5
Kenpom has us ranked #1 in 3FG% Defense at 26.6%
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Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
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Post by Boz on Mar 13, 2012 8:33:44 GMT -5
Just tried it and it sent me the promo code and where to go to enter it (ncaa.com/cokezero). I've also downloaded the CBS March Madness App for my phone so I should also be able to watch games on it as well. Won't know for sure until the games tomorrow. Awesome. I did some research too. And found the article below. Basically, text 0 then your favorite team to 2653 and they will give you a code. So text 0Georgetown like i didnt and get your self a code! www.businesswire.com/news/home/20120222006354/en/Coke-Jump-Starts-NCAA%C2%AE-March-Madness%C2%AEHow much is the charge for that text message on your phone bill? Is it, maybe....$3.99? ;D Just kidding. Good for those of you who got it for free. I am more of an impulse consumer, so didn't wait around for that. Hope it works for all of us! |
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Mar 13, 2012 8:48:54 GMT -5
yup got it for free with that code. And since I have unlimited texts didn't cost me anything at all. Yeah cheating the system.
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NCHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,927
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 13, 2012 9:01:46 GMT -5
Few Observations. 1. Their style is to have 4 guys surround one post guy so that he can operate 1-on-1 similar to what the princeton offense is about. The difference is the are looking to get into the paint if they cant enter the post and kick out for 3's. they also have a play where if the ball is on the wing the 2 guys on the opposite side screen to get one of them a 3 and they skip the ball clear across court. Watching this i was like yeah that pass works in the Atlantic Sun can't see it working on a team with length. 2. They turn the ball over a fair bit in the games I watched them. Also Johnson their PG will drive looking to create contact. 3. they are not very athletic at all. The guy Jenkins who starts at PF is the only plus guy in terms of leaping ability they have. 4. When their 3's are not falling they can go thru some droughts. And they take A LOT of 3's. its either post or 3's. Clark and Hanlen can shoot. Clark can do it off the dribble well. Hanlen has a ugly release even though he is the leading 3 point shooter in the country. He hits that push shot if he is open but he shoots it from his chest. I cant see this guy hitting over size and there has been games where he doesn't even get shots and I'm figuring that is why. 5. Watching their Conference final, Florida Gulf Coast got everything they wanted in both halves. they just didn't make crap in that 2nd half. They were up by 13 on Belmont with 6mins left. 6. the 3 point shooting is important but we have to limit the post guys points WITH ONE ON ONE COVERAGE. 7. Guards need to drive, they don't seem very interested in guarding for a long time. You can get to the basket easily..... No shot blocking at all. 8. Finally I can see why their coach wants to work with them on rebounding. They are very small and can't jump quickly. Lastly everyone says they lost to Duke by 1. Duke was up 16 points in the 2nd half in that game and decided to have a turn over fest. Thanks for the research and write-up. This makes me feel even better. I really think we should win this game - BIG. I mean Florida Gulf Coast was winning in the second half by double digits against Belmont. Are we slightly better than Gulf Coast? I hope so. I see the gameplan will be contest everything outside, and limit Hanlen's attempts which sounds feasible given his shooting motion. I wish we had guards that could conistently get to the rim, but perhaps we can do it enough to hurt them. |
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kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Enter your message here...
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Post by kchoya on Mar 13, 2012 9:03:20 GMT -5
Are you kenpom? What do you mean you have a model? Larry David mode activated Jeez, all I said was "Your 'model?'" Some of you act like I slept with the guy's crazy sister. He said his model predicts a one point GU win. I just wanted to know what model he was talking about. Does he have a website? Is it his 8th grade science project? Just curious. |
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skyhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,496
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Post by skyhoya on Mar 13, 2012 9:21:55 GMT -5
roll call for Columbus?
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TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 13, 2012 9:43:34 GMT -5
yup got it for free with that code. And since I have unlimited texts didn't cost me anything at all. Yeah cheating the system. Sorry to continue derailing this thread, but you paid by giving them your phone number and agreeing to whatever the terms and conditions are on the promotion. TANSTAAFL |
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Jack
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,411
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Post by Jack on Mar 13, 2012 9:46:10 GMT -5
yup got it for free with that code. And since I have unlimited texts didn't cost me anything at all. Yeah cheating the system. Sorry to continue derailing this thread, but you paid by giving them your phone number and agreeing to whatever the terms and conditions are on the promotion. Almost all of which information you have to provide when you sign up for the (paid) service anyway, I would think. |
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Post by hoyadestroya on Mar 13, 2012 10:22:28 GMT -5
Thanks for the heads up on the MMOD. I wouldn't be able to get through the MM workday without it  Just FYI, part of the response from Coke Zero asks if you want to opt in to offers from Coke Zero. Feeling good about the Hoyas this tourney time around. It all depends on if the seniors/Hollis/coach have some revenge on their mind for past few years. The Frosh have already shown they aren't phased in big games. These out of conferences teams won't know how to handle our O and if we defend like we can, should be a fun run. |
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 13, 2012 10:33:00 GMT -5
Our emphasis on defense makes us a different bunch than the last 2 tourneys. I fully expect that to be quickly evident, and to deflate the confidence of the Bruins. Time for a little Hoya Saxa mi amigos.
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RDF
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 8,835
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Post by RDF on Mar 13, 2012 10:48:02 GMT -5
One thing I laugh at with the analysis/breakdowns of all the games by the media outlets is how they contradict themselves. For instance it's "good that Kentucky lost because they had a long winning streak and that's a lot of added pressure to take into NCAA's......." but it's good for Belmont "They are on a long winning streak.....it's going to make them very confident and feel they are ready to take next step......". Which is it? Good or bad to have a long winning streak entering NCAA play? Or you have "The Belmont Bruins have been there before......they are ready to take next step and win a game or 2......." well Georgetown has been there and might be even more hungry/desperate to do away with some recent disappointments.
One thing that often matters in Cinderfella games--does the big conference team defend? If answer is yes--then they'll win. It might be a tough game, but they'll win. Might be a tough game for 30 minutes and they pull away but they'll win. Or it might be a blowout--but they'll win. If you defend against low-mid major teams, you will win the game. Georgetown didn't lose to Ohio because of offensive inefficiency. They didn't lose to VCU because of offense (I still believe VCU was just more athletic and better then Hoyas last year) they lost because they couldnt' stop anyone. If that happens again, they'll lose. You have to get stops and make it hard for the "underdog" team because eventually they'll have to hit shots. You have to expect homer calls for the "gritty underdog" so that means 50-50 calls go their way--deflections out of bounds, charge/block calls (often with a dramatic flair from official), BS calls (3 seconds, carrying the ball, over the backs when it's just size dominating). If you understand that entering game--it'll workout. Also wouldn't hurt to get out to a good start and hit them in the mouth. Yes--they've been in NCAA's consistently lately--and haven't done a damn thing. That matters to me more then being there. If you havent had success, then what makes this year any different? Georgetown can say same thing. It's about getting out and taking the game to your opponent and not being on your heels before game starts or letting the scumball officials (they all suck in opening 2 rounds of NCAA as they play to underdog to keep them in game or prevent game from getting too far out of hand) get to your psyche.
1 area that does concern me about this Hoyas team--their inability to make FT's. That is a momentum changer in every game--but magnified in NCAA play. A lead going from 7 to 9 is huge, and if you miss front end its just like a turnover-and love to know how many times opponent then comes down to not only score-but often get a 3pt play--be it outside arc or traditional manner. They have to make FT's and quit acting like it's going to correct itself and FT's are about mental toughness and focus on technique/rhythm. It's not about "we'll hit them eventually". Guys on this team I trust at FT line in key moments are almost all FR (Otto, Jabril, Mikael--yes I'd put him in late just to shoot FT's) and Jason Clark is lone exception. Nobody else on this team has my confidence they can knock them down--Henry is streaky but if you are in situation where other team is fouling-I'd replace him with Hopkins--who I think knocks them down and go offense/defense.
Just fired up for this group and like the effort/intensity they've brought to every game. Only counted 1 game where I thought Hoyas were not ready to match intensity (Seton Hall) and they bounced back with strong effort to end year.
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MassHoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,786
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Post by MassHoya on Mar 13, 2012 11:02:39 GMT -5
RDF has got it. Gotta start out quick and take the refs, the crowd and Belmont out of the "gritty underdog" mode.
I am not as worried about free throws as getting into a 3 point shooting contest. We MUST run our stuff, let the plays develop and make the passes to cutters when open, not just jack up the first 3 after we cross the time line.
Bash the Bruins!!!
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Mar 13, 2012 11:16:33 GMT -5
FWIW, I thought "The Experts" show on ESPNU last night actually offered some sound and reasoned analysis, not just of our opening game, but of the brackets overall.
Funny how that seems to happen when you get a bunch of players and coaches (who aren't slobbering media hounds) together to discuss the games.
As for GU-Belmont, most of them were pretty high on Georgetown (most were pretty high on Georgetown throughout, but I don't want to bring up anything other than Friday's game...because I'm me).
Wanna' guess which panelist sounded most like an idiot and couldn't back up any of his predictions with solid game or statistical analysis?
Yup....Joe Lunardi.
Everone else was very good, for the most part.
In conclusion, it occurs to me that someone may have already posted this earlier in the thread, but I don't care all that much.
;D
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Post by mjc on Mar 13, 2012 11:26:04 GMT -5
lets hope the hoyas got the big choke out of the way last week!
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 13, 2012 12:30:00 GMT -5
By the way, arent we the only local team in the tourney? I wonder when the last time that happened?
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757hoyafan
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,002
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Post by 757hoyafan on Mar 13, 2012 12:33:55 GMT -5
Larry David mode activated Jeez, all I said was "Your 'model?'" Some of you act like I slept with the guy's crazy sister. He said his model predicts a one point GU win. I just wanted to know what model he was talking about. Does he have a website? Is it his 8th grade science project? Just curious. hahahahahahaha |
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Mar 13, 2012 12:39:53 GMT -5
By the way, arent we the only local team in the tourney? I wonder when the last time that happened? Depends on your definition of "local," I think. |
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Post by crashdavis on Mar 13, 2012 13:12:40 GMT -5
FWIW, I thought "The Experts" show on ESPNU last night actually offered some sound and reasoned analysis, not just of our opening game, but of the brackets overall. Funny how that seems to happen when you get a bunch of players and coaches (who aren't slobbering media hounds) together to discuss the games. As for GU-Belmont, most of them were pretty high on Georgetown (most were pretty high on Georgetown throughout, but I don't want to bring up anything other than Friday's game...because I'm me). Wanna' guess which panelist sounded most like an idiot and couldn't back up any of his predictions with solid game or statistical analysis? Yup....Joe Lunardi. Everone else was very good, for the most part. In conclusion, it occurs to me that someone may have already posted this earlier in the thread, but I don't care all that much. ;D Lunardi should already be on vacation. He is not a basketball guy....he job is solely based on projecting what the Selection Committee with do. There's nothing wrong with that at all....guy found his niche and has made a good living at doing it....but he's not the kind of guy that understands the intricacies of the game and how teams matchup with each other on the floor, only how the Selection Committee values wins/losses/rpi etc. |
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