Nevada Hoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by Nevada Hoya on Mar 12, 2012 19:48:24 GMT -5
To hammer home the point, I had a text within minutes of the reveal from a Marquette fan analyzing their draw exclusively in terms of who was in the 6/11 game opposite them in the pod (Murray State and whoever). I, on the other hand, was completely ignorant of the other game--I recalled seeing something about SDSU but I had no idea NC State was there--until more than an hour later when I looked again. From the minute the draw came out, all I could think about was Belmont. In past years, including last year, I would not have been so short-sighted. Interesting, because Marquette/Iona has the potential to be a pretty entertaining game (assuming Iona gets past BYU). Ever been two Gaels' (sic?) in the tourney before? I don't know if there have ever been two Gaels in the tourney before, but before Tim Cluess, coach of the Iona Gaels, he was coach of the St. Mary High School Gaels (my alma mater). He coached them to several NY HS championships. I think SMHS was #1 or #2 in the nation one year. Watch out for the Iona Gaels. |
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kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by kchoya on Mar 12, 2012 20:29:19 GMT -5
A point re: the vegas spread that I haven't seen discussed is that the job of Vegas oddsmakers isn't to predict winners, it's to try to entice roughly equal amounts of money on both sides of the betting ledger. The fact that our margin has been shrinking simply means that lots of people were picking Belmont (as it became a de rigeur selection). Now if you believe in the wisdom of crowds, this could be a troubling sign that people know something we don't. But it can just as easily mean that people are making a popular upset wager (that likely isn't costing that much to make) because they keep hearing about it in the sports media. Your premise is correct, and you are right to look deeper into the line movements, but, having done extensive academic research on the subject, the closing line is actually a better approximation of the final outcome of games than the opening line. For what it's worth, my model has the Hoyas by less than a full point. Your "model?" |
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SaxaCD
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by SaxaCD on Mar 12, 2012 20:34:13 GMT -5
Your premise is correct, and you are right to look deeper into the line movements, but, having done extensive academic research on the subject, the closing line is actually a better approximation of the final outcome of games than the opening line. For what it's worth, my model has the Hoyas by less than a full point. Your "model?" If it's Giselle Bundchen, bet the house on the Hoyas. |
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Mar 12, 2012 20:49:05 GMT -5
Wait so you have to pay $4 to watch the games online now?
I know that's not a lot, but after it being free for years that's kind of annoying. I also had no idea until reading this thread and trying to check out. You think they would have brought that up. I can get charging for the app to watch games on your ipad or iphone, but watching just on you computer should still be free. That sucks.
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Post by Problem of Dog on Mar 12, 2012 20:54:27 GMT -5
Your premise is correct, and you are right to look deeper into the line movements, but, having done extensive academic research on the subject, the closing line is actually a better approximation of the final outcome of games than the opening line. For what it's worth, my model has the Hoyas by less than a full point. Your "model?" Did I stutter? |
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Mar 12, 2012 21:11:12 GMT -5
Analysis I'm reading says that georgetown's "system" is difficult to prepare for... My question: do we really play a "system" anymore? I haven't seen too many backdoor cuts, and we have shown some willingness to score in transition as well. Sure, our big men may pass slightly more than normal, but is it fair to say we're running something very formulaic? I'd argue our system has never been formulaic and that's what makes it so difficult to prepare for. The system boils down to: read what the defense is giving up and exploit that. You can't prepare to stop everything. You have decide what you're going to give up. This is all in theory of course. Back cuts are just a way to exploit an over aggressive man to man defense. It's not a requirement of the Princeton system. |
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TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 12, 2012 21:12:15 GMT -5
Wait so you have to pay $4 to watch the games online now? I know that's not a lot, but after it being free for years that's kind of annoying. I also had no idea until reading this thread and trying to check out. You think they would have brought that up. I can get charging for the app to watch games on your ipad or iphone, but watching just on you computer should still be free. That sucks. Why should it be free? CBS is paying to put it online. That's not free for them--equipment, servers, possibly extra to the NCAA for putting it online. Don't forget the huge amount of money they're paying for the broadcast rights. And if ads aren't covering it, or the market is willing to pay for it, why not make some money on it? TV ad revenue isn't exactly bringing in all time high revenues (and people online mean some people who would be watching it on TV aren't, possibly hurting their ad revenue) Maybe they need to get more out of the tournament to help make up for shortfall elsewhere. The revenue model for media is changing. Someone has to pay for it and I doubt it will be entirely by advertisers like in the past |
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dense
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,068
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Post by dense on Mar 12, 2012 21:24:55 GMT -5
Few Observations.
1. Their style is to have 4 guys surround one post guy so that he can operate 1-on-1 similar to what the princeton offense is about. The difference is the are looking to get into the paint if they cant enter the post and kick out for 3's. they also have a play where if the ball is on the wing the 2 guys on the opposite side screen to get one of them a 3 and they skip the ball clear across court. Watching this i was like yeah that pass works in the Atlantic Sun can't see it working on a team with length.
2. They turn the ball over a fair bit in the games I watched them. Also Johnson their PG will drive looking to create contact.
3. they are not very athletic at all. The guy Jenkins who starts at PF is the only plus guy in terms of leaping ability they have.
4. When their 3's are not falling they can go thru some droughts. And they take A LOT of 3's. its either post or 3's. Clark and Hanlen can shoot. Clark can do it off the dribble well. Hanlen has a ugly release even though he is the leading 3 point shooter in the country. He hits that push shot if he is open but he shoots it from his chest. I cant see this guy hitting over size and there has been games where he doesn't even get shots and I'm figuring that is why.
5. Watching their Conference final, Florida Gulf Coast got everything they wanted in both halves. they just didn't make crap in that 2nd half. They were up by 13 on Belmont with 6mins left.
6. the 3 point shooting is important but we have to limit the post guys points WITH ONE ON ONE COVERAGE.
7. Guards need to drive, they don't seem very interested in guarding for a long time. You can get to the basket easily..... No shot blocking at all.
8. Finally I can see why their coach wants to work with them on rebounding. They are very small and can't jump quickly.
Lastly everyone says they lost to Duke by 1. Duke was up 16 points in the 2nd half in that game and decided to have a turn over fest.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Mar 12, 2012 21:32:59 GMT -5
Wait so you have to pay $4 to watch the games online now? I know that's not a lot, but after it being free for years that's kind of annoying. I also had no idea until reading this thread and trying to check out. You think they would have brought that up. I can get charging for the app to watch games on your ipad or iphone, but watching just on you computer should still be free. That sucks. Why should it be free? CBS is paying to put it online. That's not free for them--equipment, servers, possibly extra to the NCAA for putting it online. Don't forget the huge amount of money they're paying for the broadcast rights. And if ads aren't covering it, or the market is willing to pay for it, why not make some money on it? TV ad revenue isn't exactly bringing in all time high revenues (and people online mean some people who would be watching it on TV aren't, possibly hurting their ad revenue) Maybe they need to get more out of the tournament to help make up for shortfall elsewhere. The revenue model for media is changing. Someone has to pay for it and I doubt it will be entirely by advertisers like in the past Because it's been free for years. I also don't like how it wasn't advertised. If no one had mentioned it here I would've logged on on Thursday to watch games and be met with a nasty surprise. Again I know it's not a big deal. Of course they have every right to charge for it, but when something is offered for free for years and then suddenly you have to start paying for it, I don't see how it's not understandable that that is annoying. |
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Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 12, 2012 21:32:59 GMT -5
Lastly everyone says they lost to Duke by 1. Duke was up 16 points in the 2nd half in that game and decided to have a turn over fest. Hmmmm. Who does that sound like? |
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dense
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by dense on Mar 12, 2012 21:37:07 GMT -5
Lastly everyone says they lost to Duke by 1. Duke was up 16 points in the 2nd half in that game and decided to have a turn over fest. Hmmmm. Who does that sound like? Yeah but it wasn't from full court pressure. It was mostly Austin Rivers, Mason Plumee and Curry throwing it all over the place |
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kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by kchoya on Mar 12, 2012 22:07:12 GMT -5
Are you kenpom? What do you mean you have a model? |
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Post by crashdavis on Mar 12, 2012 22:21:44 GMT -5
There are apparently promo codes out there that you can put in to watch the games for free. Here is one of them that I have seen (though haven't tried yet).
"Text 0Mizzou (that is zero Mizzou) to 2653 and you'll get a code from Coke Zero to watch the games for free."
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jgalt
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,380
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Post by jgalt on Mar 12, 2012 22:55:54 GMT -5
There are apparently promo codes out there that you can put in to watch the games for free. Here is one of them that I have seen (though haven't tried yet). "Text 0Mizzou (that is zero Mizzou) to 2653 and you'll get a code from Coke Zero to watch the games for free." So who is going to try it first? There is no reason it SHOULD be free, and $4 isnt alot, but its an odd time to start charging. Usually it goes the other way: pay first then it becomes free. I think they chose this year because every game is on TV so they want to push people to watch that. I dont have work those days (well technically I work from home and make my own hours) so I can jump around to watch all I want. But I was looking forward to setting up a second screen to watch more game than once. Cant do that now because I dont have a second cable box. Will probably go for an "illegal" feed (really all charging will do is push people back to illegal means). |
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,659
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Post by guru on Mar 12, 2012 22:58:47 GMT -5
Are you kenpom? What do you mean you have a model? Larry David mode activated |
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 12, 2012 23:07:38 GMT -5
And Vegas has now made Drew Hanlen the favorite to win the "Ben Jacobson Memorial Award" for crying in the bathroom of an Ohio bar after never winning an NCAA tournament game. I have no words to describe how awesome this reference is. |
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Post by gtowndynasty on Mar 12, 2012 23:08:01 GMT -5
Are you kenpom? What do you mean you have a model? Larry David mode activated True indeed. It kinda helps because Curb is not in season right now and KC does a fine impersonation. You just have to take him with a grain of salt and if you engage, well, you know what you will get. |
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Post by crashdavis on Mar 12, 2012 23:12:10 GMT -5
There are apparently promo codes out there that you can put in to watch the games for free. Here is one of them that I have seen (though haven't tried yet). "Text 0Mizzou (that is zero Mizzou) to 2653 and you'll get a code from Coke Zero to watch the games for free." So who is going to try it first? There is no reason it SHOULD be free, and $4 isnt alot, but its an odd time to start charging. Usually it goes the other way: pay first then it becomes free. I think they chose this year because every game is on TV so they want to push people to watch that. I dont have work those days (well technically I work from home and make my own hours) so I can jump around to watch all I want. But I was looking forward to setting up a second screen to watch more game than once. Cant do that now because I dont have a second cable box. Will probably go for an "illegal" feed (really all charging will do is push people back to illegal means). Just tried it and it sent me the promo code and where to go to enter it (ncaa.com/cokezero). I've also downloaded the CBS March Madness App for my phone so I should also be able to watch games on it as well. Won't know for sure until the games tomorrow. |
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jgalt
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,380
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Post by jgalt on Mar 13, 2012 0:46:33 GMT -5
Just tried it and it sent me the promo code and where to go to enter it (ncaa.com/cokezero). I've also downloaded the CBS March Madness App for my phone so I should also be able to watch games on it as well. Won't know for sure until the games tomorrow. Awesome. I did some research too. And found the article below. Basically, text 0 then your favorite team to 2653 and they will give you a code. So text 0Georgetown like i didnt and get your self a code! www.businesswire.com/news/home/20120222006354/en/Coke-Jump-Starts-NCAA%C2%AE-March-Madness%C2%AE |
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McBricks
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
What Rocks.
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Post by McBricks on Mar 13, 2012 1:26:45 GMT -5
Thanks for the codes. It seems like I am set up!
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