kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Mar 12, 2012 16:44:10 GMT -5
A point re: the vegas spread that I haven't seen discussed is that the job of Vegas oddsmakers isn't to predict winners, it's to try to entice roughly equal amounts of money on both sides of the betting ledger. The fact that our margin has been shrinking simply means that lots of people were picking Belmont (as it became a de rigeur selection). Now if you believe in the wisdom of crowds, this could be a troubling sign that people know something we don't. But it can just as easily mean that people are making a popular upset wager (that likely isn't costing that much to make) because they keep hearing about it in the sports media. All it means is that all those folks going out to Hoya Madness 2012 will make easy money with a 3 point line. |
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 12, 2012 16:54:15 GMT -5
If there's one thing that's certainly changed about recent years, and that strongly suggests that nobody is looking past Belmont, its that for the first time I can recall as a Board Member, there is basically unanimity in the complete disinterest in talking about games beyond Georgetown's first one. I can assure you that message boards of other 3 seeds are more than happy to speculate about Saturday's/Sunday's likely opponent, and potentially beyond. Everyone around these parts has learned the hard way that there's no sense in spending more than a second talking about any potential future game other than the game in front you.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 12, 2012 16:54:47 GMT -5
Please keep talking, Drew Hanlen, keep talking.... www.tennessean.com/article/20120312/SPORTS06/303120028/Belmont-gets-familiar-higher-seeds“Obviously momentum is big in basketball, but I don’t think Georgetown really cares how many games we’ve won in a row,” Hanlen said. “They’re going to look at our schedule and they’re going to see Atlantic Sun opponents and they’re not going to respect our win streak because they’re in the Big East.”
That smacks of Georgetown possibly overlooking Belmont and that would be fine with Hanlen, who said simply getting in the NCAA Tournament is no longer enough to satisfy the Bruins. “Every year you feel like that’s going to be the team that wins an NCAA Tournament game, but I think that we’ve really focused this year, not only on making the NCAA Tournament, but actually winning games,” Hanlen said. “We had a great couple of days of practice after the A-Sun tournament, and we’ve gotten better in things we need to get better at to give ourselves a chance.” Given Georgetown's own history, I don't think they will underestimate Belmont, especially considering Belmont is the hot pick for an upset in the media. For historical perspective: 2011: Belmont had a 12 game winning streak going into the NCAA tournament and got crushed by Wisconsin. They also had won 21 of their 22 games before that year's NCAA tournament. 2008: Belmont had a 13 game winning streak going into the NCAA tournament and lost to 8th seed Duke by 1 point. 2007: Belmont won 9 of their last 10 before getting crushed by Georgetown in the NCAA tournament. |
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 12, 2012 16:57:31 GMT -5
To hammer home the point, I had a text within minutes of the reveal from a Marquette fan analyzing their draw exclusively in terms of who was in the 6/11 game opposite them in the pod (Murray State and whoever). I, on the other hand, was completely ignorant of the other game--I recalled seeing something about SDSU but I had no idea NC State was there--until more than an hour later when I looked again. From the minute the draw came out, all I could think about was Belmont.
In past years, including last year, I would not have been so short-sighted.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 12, 2012 17:04:31 GMT -5
Any journalistic suggestion (or indulgence in the suggestion of others) that the Hoyas might overlook Belmont reflects an incredible amount of ignorance and a basic laziness in doing research. Clark and Sims literally have not won a tournament game in their careers on the Hilltop--indeed no one on this roster has won a tourney game. The whole "program is due to win a tournament game" applies to us just as equally as it does to Belmont!
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Post by Problem of Dog on Mar 12, 2012 17:16:32 GMT -5
A point re: the vegas spread that I haven't seen discussed is that the job of Vegas oddsmakers isn't to predict winners, it's to try to entice roughly equal amounts of money on both sides of the betting ledger. The fact that our margin has been shrinking simply means that lots of people were picking Belmont (as it became a de rigeur selection). Now if you believe in the wisdom of crowds, this could be a troubling sign that people know something we don't. But it can just as easily mean that people are making a popular upset wager (that likely isn't costing that much to make) because they keep hearing about it in the sports media. Your premise is correct, and you are right to look deeper into the line movements, but, having done extensive academic research on the subject, the closing line is actually a better approximation of the final outcome of games than the opening line. For what it's worth, my model has the Hoyas by less than a full point. |
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DudeSlade
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Post by DudeSlade on Mar 12, 2012 17:19:18 GMT -5
To hammer home the point, I had a text within minutes of the reveal from a Marquette fan analyzing their draw exclusively in terms of who was in the 6/11 game opposite them in the pod (Murray State and whoever). I, on the other hand, was completely ignorant of the other game--I recalled seeing something about SDSU but I had no idea NC State was there--until more than an hour later when I looked again. From the minute the draw came out, all I could think about was Belmont. In past years, including last year, I would not have been so short-sighted. Very true, Big Dog. I would also say, without having actually looked into either team, that I am not nearly as worried about SDSU or NC St. as I am about Belmont. Probably a large part of that is a feeling that if we can get out of the first round, we will have gotten that monkey off our back and can just play -- in which case, I feel we have the better team than whatever a 6/11 would have. For the most part also, this team has done a very good job of playing one game at a time this year -- something we didn't seem to do as well in the past couple years. |
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tjm62
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Post by tjm62 on Mar 12, 2012 17:25:21 GMT -5
Analysis I'm reading says that georgetown's "system" is difficult to prepare for...
My question: do we really play a "system" anymore? I haven't seen too many backdoor cuts, and we have shown some willingness to score in transition as well. Sure, our big men may pass slightly more than normal, but is it fair to say we're running something very formulaic?
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Post by flyoverhoya on Mar 12, 2012 17:27:22 GMT -5
To hammer home the point, I had a text within minutes of the reveal from a Marquette fan analyzing their draw exclusively in terms of who was in the 6/11 game opposite them in the pod (Murray State and whoever). I, on the other hand, was completely ignorant of the other game--I recalled seeing something about SDSU but I had no idea NC State was there--until more than an hour later when I looked again. From the minute the draw came out, all I could think about was Belmont. In past years, including last year, I would not have been so short-sighted. Interesting, because Marquette/Iona has the potential to be a pretty entertaining game (assuming Iona gets past BYU). Ever been two Gaels' (sic?) in the tourney before? |
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dense
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Post by dense on Mar 12, 2012 17:43:50 GMT -5
Analysis I'm reading says that georgetown's "system" is difficult to prepare for... My question: do we really play a "system" anymore? I haven't seen too many backdoor cuts, and we have shown some willingness to score in transition as well. Sure, our big men may pass slightly more than normal, but is it fair to say we're running something very formulaic? we run the same stuff, teams focus so much on taking that away they sag towards the paint. Most teams when defending a "princeton" team want to do is take away easy lay-ups. What it has done is give Henry all the room he needs in the post and at the elbow to drive. And when the wings dribble at someone it opens up 3 point attempts |
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superan
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Post by superan on Mar 12, 2012 17:47:28 GMT -5
Analysis I'm reading says that georgetown's "system" is difficult to prepare for... My question: do we really play a "system" anymore? I haven't seen too many backdoor cuts, and we have shown some willingness to score in transition as well. Sure, our big men may pass slightly more than normal, but is it fair to say we're running something very formulaic? The system is based on what the defense gives. Backdoor cuts are not the system, they are a consequence as a result of the system responding to what the defense is showing. We've seen teams (in the Big East especially) that are playing man-to-man defense do their best to clamp down on preventing the backdoor cuts because those are the highest percentage buckets in our offense. But if those defenses start overplaying our cuts, that allows for our guards to step back from behind picks for open 3's or jump shots. Opposing defenses focusing on backdoor cuts also prevents them from double-teaming/helping effectively. In this situation we might send the ball into the post and have Henry try taking someone 1 on 1. Zone defenses involve a different set of strategies which JTIII initially had trouble with adapting to but he has done a much better job over the last few years in those situations. Ultimately, it's up to the players to recognize what the defense is giving and capitalize on that. This is also why JTIII doesn't have an arsenal of plays coming out of timeouts. The system isn't based on designed plays, it's based on what the defense is doing. This year we've seen Big East opponents frequently change defensive styles mid-game to confuse our players (man-to-man, switch to zone, 3/4 court press, back to zone, back to press, man-to-man). It's an interesting strategy though I'm not sure how effective it has been. |
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on Mar 12, 2012 18:11:23 GMT -5
As has already been said to some extent, the "system" is "here is how you play basketball really well", more or less. JTIII appears to favor teaching everyone on the court what the correct decision is at any time against any defense. It happens that he is biased towards believing the "correct" decision is the one which most resembles the Princeton system because of where he played and coached.
Some times it works and sometimes it doesnt. I think that it explains why we see some guys benched for games when it appears they could be effective. They are probably not making the right decisions in practice.
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Post by omahahoya on Mar 12, 2012 18:14:28 GMT -5
Belmont lost to Lipscomb and Miami (OH). They are no juggernaut. If we handle the ball and call timeouts when they go on a run of threes, we will be fine. We cannot take them for granted but we should play with confidence. Gtown 82 - Belmont 70
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Post by jamaicahoya on Mar 12, 2012 18:50:38 GMT -5
I like this early challenge. If anything, this team has been more resourceful and resilience this year when facing opponents that were favored to give them trouble--Kansas, Louiville at home, Alabama at home, and even Memphis. So, its good for them to hear that they are vulnerable to a 2011 VCU wannabe like Belmont. What worries me the most is the latter part of this observation by Ben Standig of csnwashington.com:
"Senior center Henry Sims enters the tournament on a roll after averaging 21 points and 14 rebounds in two games at the Big East Tournament. However, the Hoyas' outside shooters faded down the stretch, sinking only 26.9 percent of their 3-point attempts over the last three games."
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Mar 12, 2012 19:01:35 GMT -5
Analysis I'm reading says that georgetown's "system" is difficult to prepare for... My question: do we really play a "system" anymore? I haven't seen too many backdoor cuts, and we have shown some willingness to score in transition as well. Sure, our big men may pass slightly more than normal, but is it fair to say we're running something very formulaic? Um....yeah. The Hoyas may not get as many backdoor cuts but that isn't because of a lack of trying. The Hoyas often hold on to the ball while looking for cutters. The Hoyas still rely on multiple screens to get players free for three pointers. The Hoyas' big men still spend a lot of time away from the basket playing the role of facilitator on offense. The Hoyas rarely get points off of one-on-one moves; the vast majority of the baskets come as a result of the offensive scheme, including the open three-pointers. Scheme and system are emphasized far more than individual play. There is some good about that method but there can be some bad as well when things break down. |
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Mar 12, 2012 19:04:54 GMT -5
To hammer home the point, I had a text within minutes of the reveal from a Marquette fan analyzing their draw exclusively in terms of who was in the 6/11 game opposite them in the pod (Murray State and whoever). I, on the other hand, was completely ignorant of the other game--I recalled seeing something about SDSU but I had no idea NC State was there--until more than an hour later when I looked again. From the minute the draw came out, all I could think about was Belmont. In past years, including last year, I would not have been so short-sighted. It's been the same with me. I think the Hoyas will win on Friday but I'm no longer paying attention to the possible opponents they will face if they get past Belmont. |
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 12, 2012 19:07:59 GMT -5
Please keep talking, Drew Hanlen, keep talking.... www.tennessean.com/article/20120312/SPORTS06/303120028/Belmont-gets-familiar-higher-seeds“Obviously momentum is big in basketball, but I don’t think Georgetown really cares how many games we’ve won in a row,” Hanlen said. “They’re going to look at our schedule and they’re going to see Atlantic Sun opponents and they’re not going to respect our win streak because they’re in the Big East.”
That smacks of Georgetown possibly overlooking Belmont and that would be fine with Hanlen, who said simply getting in the NCAA Tournament is no longer enough to satisfy the Bruins. “Every year you feel like that’s going to be the team that wins an NCAA Tournament game, but I think that we’ve really focused this year, not only on making the NCAA Tournament, but actually winning games,” Hanlen said. “We had a great couple of days of practice after the A-Sun tournament, and we’ve gotten better in things we need to get better at to give ourselves a chance.” And Vegas has now made Drew Hanlen the favorite to win the "Ben Jacobson Memorial Award" for crying in the bathroom of an Ohio bar after never winning an NCAA tournament game. |
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Mar 12, 2012 19:14:25 GMT -5
Please keep talking, Drew Hanlen, keep talking.... www.tennessean.com/article/20120312/SPORTS06/303120028/Belmont-gets-familiar-higher-seeds“Obviously momentum is big in basketball, but I don’t think Georgetown really cares how many games we’ve won in a row,” Hanlen said. “They’re going to look at our schedule and they’re going to see Atlantic Sun opponents and they’re not going to respect our win streak because they’re in the Big East.”
That smacks of Georgetown possibly overlooking Belmont and that would be fine with Hanlen, who said simply getting in the NCAA Tournament is no longer enough to satisfy the Bruins. “Every year you feel like that’s going to be the team that wins an NCAA Tournament game, but I think that we’ve really focused this year, not only on making the NCAA Tournament, but actually winning games,” Hanlen said. “We had a great couple of days of practice after the A-Sun tournament, and we’ve gotten better in things we need to get better at to give ourselves a chance.” Given Georgetown's own history, I don't think they will underestimate Belmont, especially considering Belmont is the hot pick for an upset in the media. I agree. I simply hope the Hoyas PLAY like they aren't overlooking their opponent this time. People here have been quoting Jason and Henry but I want to quote Hollis from the beginning of the season in which he spoke about being upset over the Hoyas losing the first game of the tourney in each of his two years. He vowed it would not happen again. Hope he lives up to that promise. I hope III is taking this game personally too. I wouldn't mind it if he rode his players hard all game. And, yes, pull ANY PLAYER who isn't out there giving it their all. Didn't like how III was limiting minutes again in the BET. What is doing? Saving guys for the rough grind next year? The more rest each player gets the more fresh they are and the more able they will be to play better defense throughout the entire game. |
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Post by williambraskyiii on Mar 12, 2012 19:16:24 GMT -5
Please keep talking, Drew Hanlen, keep talking.... www.tennessean.com/article/20120312/SPORTS06/303120028/Belmont-gets-familiar-higher-seeds“Obviously momentum is big in basketball, but I don’t think Georgetown really cares how many games we’ve won in a row,” Hanlen said. “They’re going to look at our schedule and they’re going to see Atlantic Sun opponents and they’re not going to respect our win streak because they’re in the Big East.”
That smacks of Georgetown possibly overlooking Belmont and that would be fine with Hanlen, who said simply getting in the NCAA Tournament is no longer enough to satisfy the Bruins. “Every year you feel like that’s going to be the team that wins an NCAA Tournament game, but I think that we’ve really focused this year, not only on making the NCAA Tournament, but actually winning games,” Hanlen said. “We had a great couple of days of practice after the A-Sun tournament, and we’ve gotten better in things we need to get better at to give ourselves a chance.” And Vegas has now made Drew Hanlen the favorite to win the "Ben Jacobson Memorial Award" for crying in the bathroom of an Ohio bar after never winning an NCAA tournament game. HA! |
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kettlehill
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Post by kettlehill on Mar 12, 2012 19:24:46 GMT -5
Any journalistic suggestion (or indulgence in the suggestion of others) that the Hoyas might overlook Belmont reflects an incredible amount of ignorance and a basic laziness in doing research. Clark and Sims literally have not won a tournament game in their careers on the Hilltop--indeed no one on this roster has won a tourney game. The whole "program is due to win a tournament game" applies to us just as equally as it does to Belmont! Great Point Big Dog! Why is it assumed in the media that Belmont is hungrier than this Hoya bunch. No way. |
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