DoctorHoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by DoctorHoya on Dec 6, 2010 13:22:26 GMT -5
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kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by kchoya on Dec 6, 2010 13:25:13 GMT -5
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Dec 6, 2010 13:30:01 GMT -5
KenPom does not count. He's some dude sitting in a basement with a calculator and line graphs.
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Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Dec 6, 2010 13:32:42 GMT -5
Sagarin #5
Does he count, Ambassador?
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Dec 6, 2010 13:37:48 GMT -5
I am not as familiar with his stuff - I just think the KenPom stuff gets tiresome. I'm not sure his accuracy rate is much better than anyone who just knows something about the sport and makes a prediction.
I do read some of the statistical work out there - it can be interesting and confirmatory, but not sure it has any value to coaches/players.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 6, 2010 13:38:18 GMT -5
according to twitter Hoyas #9 in the AP!
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 6, 2010 14:12:49 GMT -5
I am not as familiar with his stuff - I just think the KenPom stuff gets tiresome. I'm not sure his accuracy rate is much better than anyone who just knows something about the sport and makes a prediction. I do read some of the statistical work out there - it can be interesting and confirmatory, but not sure it has any value to coaches/players. It is better. He's done some work on that. Fantastically better? No, not necessarily. His lines are usually very close to the Vegas lines -- and Vegas uses very similar systems. I don't know why you'd exclude a system like kenpom but include the AP or Coach's polls.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Dec 6, 2010 14:16:15 GMT -5
But isn't Vegas more market oriented - based on where people placing bets are with respect to margin? Of course, market distortion if there aren't a hell of a lot of bets.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 6, 2010 14:24:20 GMT -5
But isn't Vegas more market oriented - based on where people placing bets are with respect to margin? Of course, market distortion if there aren't a hell of a lot of bets. I couldn't tell for certain but I suspect there aren't a lot of initial lines in college basketball where Vegas is trying to anticipate the market. I could be wrong. I just don't know why anyone would think something like the RPI or the Coach's Poll is better than a Sagarin or Kenpom.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Dec 6, 2010 14:29:00 GMT -5
I don't think AP/USA are better - we've just reached a point where we hear less about those because the stats-based stuff is all over the place and preached as gospel (as if it predicts outcomes), which nobody does with the AP/USA rankings any more in the basketball world.
Often times, the first thing talked about on here is what Ken Pom says about a game - and that is just crazy IMO. See Ohio 2010.
I think there's some value in it, don't get me wrong, but I think it has gone overboard. (And this is not just hoops - some of the MIT-like stuff in baseball is also tiresome. Can we just enjoy the games without having to be wedded to our calculators? ;D)
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Dec 6, 2010 14:29:01 GMT -5
16th in the AP poll. The media apparently doesn't get ESPNU.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Dec 6, 2010 14:31:19 GMT -5
16th in the AP poll. The media apparently doesn't get ESPNU. Nevermind. CBSSports suggests that their poll dates from today, but ESPN disagrees. Seth Davis puts the Hoyas at 15 though.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Dec 6, 2010 14:33:26 GMT -5
Nice kudos from the ESPN weekly watch: Georgetown will contend for the Big East title: Give credit to the Hoyas: John Thompson III gave his team a brutal noconference schedule, a series of tests filled with road games and tough mid-major opponents, and thus far, his team has passed with flying colors. The Hoyas' most impressive victory came in what was essentially a road game against Missouri in Kansas City, when Georgetown fought back late to force overtime and win the most thrilling game of the season to date. And then, with a tough road matchup with Temple looming next week, Georgetown thoroughly handled Utah State, one of the nation's best mid-major offenses, in what could have turned into a sneaky trap game. Thompson's team could have been forgiven for having a loss or three by this point in the season. Instead, the Hoyas have taken that tough schedule and made the most of it. Georgetown-Mizzou game also listed under "Other teams that impressed us" (gee, really? thanks). And Austin Freeman listed under "Other performances that wowed us." EDIT: As lic would say, here's the linky-thingy: espn.go.com/ncb/notebook/_/page/notebookweeklywatch1002/week-2
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nathanhm
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by nathanhm on Dec 6, 2010 14:42:14 GMT -5
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 6, 2010 14:46:50 GMT -5
Last year when we were 8-0 we were #11/11, so we're clearly better than last year ;D
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 6, 2010 14:51:32 GMT -5
ESPN has chosen to steal the poll attacks idea, by attacking it's own poll the two good ones are:
" Which undefeated team is more impressive? The one with wins over Grambling, La Salle, Jackson State, Lipscomb, Prairie View A&M and Arizona State? Or the one with wins at Old Dominion, vs. Wofford, vs. NC State, vs. Missouri in Kansas City and vs. Utah State? I'd argue the latter (Georgetown, No 10). The coaches' poll apparently believes it's the former (Baylor, No. 9).
I'd like someone to explain this: Tennessee is undefeated with a win over Villanova on a neutral court. Villanova is a one-loss team, and that loss was to -- reading comprehension test here -- Tennessee. And yet Tennessee (No. 13) is still somehow ranked behind Villanova (No. 12) in this week's poll. Is anyone else confused? This can't just be me, right?"
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Dec 6, 2010 14:57:43 GMT -5
KenPom has Tennessee behind Nova too. Where's the outrage?
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Post by williambraskyiii on Dec 6, 2010 15:00:26 GMT -5
KenPom has Tennessee behind Nova too. Where's the outrage? Did KenPom edited?
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TBird41
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"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 6, 2010 15:10:30 GMT -5
I don't think AP/USA are better - we've just reached a point where we hear less about those because the stats-based stuff is all over the place and preached as gospel (as if it predicts outcomes), which nobody does with the AP/USA rankings any more in the basketball world. Often times, the first thing talked about on here is what Ken Pom says about a game - and that is just crazy IMO. See Ohio 2010. I think there's some value in it, don't get me wrong, but I think it has gone overboard. (And this is not just hoops - some of the MIT-like stuff in baseball is also tiresome. Can we just enjoy the games without having to be wedded to our calculators? ;D) Do I enjoy the irony of the biggest pseudo intellectual on the board attacking the use of advanced statistics? Yes, yes I do. And if the Ohio game is a good example of why KenPom shouldn't be taken as gospel / predictive, what does it say about other methods of evaluating teams? Did ANYONE have the Hoyas losing to Ohio after the Big East Tournament?
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 6, 2010 15:11:46 GMT -5
KenPom has Tennessee behind Nova too. Where's the outrage? I see the rankings and Ken pom as having different aims. In my mind the polls are supposed to say who are the best teams right now based on what has happend while ken pom is supposed to say based on what's happened who will be the best teams at the end of the year.
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