hoyaboy1
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,346
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Post by hoyaboy1 on Dec 6, 2010 17:35:07 GMT -5
Another board I post on occasionally allows "Survivor" contests between two users where the guy with fewer votes over a day or two gets banned. I wish we could do that here.
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Locker
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,265
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Post by Locker on Dec 6, 2010 18:12:52 GMT -5
Pomeroy absolutely nailed how good the 2007 team was during a several-week stretch when they were out of the Top 25 of the polls. I think that's how a lot of Hoya fans became fans of his.
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swhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,137
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Post by swhoya on Dec 6, 2010 18:25:40 GMT -5
Anyone from the Charolottesville/Virginia area know anything about Whitelaw? (Gosh, that sounds wrong). Just curious what the deal is with him.
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superan
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,900
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Post by superan on Dec 6, 2010 18:36:16 GMT -5
Pomeroy absolutely nailed how good the 2007 team was during a several-week stretch when they were out of the Top 25 of the polls. I think that's how a lot of Hoya fans became fans of his. Yeah, that's pretty much when he decided to incorporate tempo-free statistics, if I recall correctly.
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MCIGuy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Posts: 9,522
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Post by MCIGuy on Dec 6, 2010 18:39:30 GMT -5
KenPom does not count. He's some dude sitting in a basement with a calculator and line graphs. Couldn't agree more. And according to that website last week the Hoyas were supposed to lose against Missouri.
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kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Posts: 9,934
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Post by kchoya on Dec 6, 2010 18:43:44 GMT -5
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MCIGuy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by MCIGuy on Dec 6, 2010 18:44:41 GMT -5
Four Big East Teams in the top ten. Only one ACC in the top 25 - Duke at #1. Didn't we beat them last year? But of course if Duke wins the championship folks will claim that the ACC was the better conference.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,899
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 6, 2010 18:45:05 GMT -5
KenPom does not count. He's some dude sitting in a basement with a calculator and line graphs. Couldn't agree more. And according to that website last week the Hoyas were supposed to lose against Missouri. Oh, good lord. He posts a prediction and probabilities - nowhere does he claim anything like 100% accuracy -- in fact he clearly posts the likelihood of one team winning. It's not Ken Pomeroy's fault when misuse stats. He had a whole post evaluating his %s -- pointing out where's he's off and that he's going to improve his system: kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/prediction_tracker/
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superan
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,900
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Post by superan on Dec 6, 2010 18:48:12 GMT -5
KenPom does not count. He's some dude sitting in a basement with a calculator and line graphs. Couldn't agree more. And according to that website last week the Hoyas were supposed to lose against Missouri. We did almost lose to Missouri. Besides, not sure what you mean by "supposed" to lose. The odds were something like 55-45 in favor of Missouri. It's just probabilities. For all intents and purposes, that's pretty much what happened except for a few lucky bounces our way. And guess what, he also tracks how lucky teams are. Look, I don't think kenpom.com is some paragon of college basketball genius but I think it can be used as a purely objective statistical based view of which teams have performed well and which haven't and then use that data to forecast future performance. Anyone who uses the site as gospel knows nothing about college basketball.
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MCIGuy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Anyone here? What am I supposed to update?
Posts: 9,522
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Post by MCIGuy on Dec 6, 2010 18:52:15 GMT -5
Couldn't agree more. And according to that website last week the Hoyas were supposed to lose against Missouri. Most the lines I saw had Georgetown at -1 or-1.5. I guess all the handicappers in Vegas are a bunch of dudes "sitting in a basement with a calculator and line graphs" as well? My issue is comparing it to AP, ESPN, etc. Don't care for sites that actual predict scores. Just do a ranking and leave it at that. The only true reason to predict scores is to appease the gambling addicts. And when you get the outcome wrong you look even more ridiculous. Good grief the stupid site already has the Hoyas' eight Big East losses picked out and the score for each game. That's nonsense.
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Jack
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,411
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Post by Jack on Dec 6, 2010 19:13:25 GMT -5
I had no idea so many troglodytes know how to use a computer to post on Hoyatalk. Billy Beane never should have written Moneyball.
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Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
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Post by Boz on Dec 6, 2010 19:18:38 GMT -5
I had no idea so many troglodytes know how to use a computer to post on Hoyatalk. Billy Beane never should have written Moneyball. ;D Who is this Pomeroy guy anyway? I thought he lost his election
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Saxifrage
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 121
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Post by Saxifrage on Dec 6, 2010 19:44:27 GMT -5
Billy Beane never should have written Moneyball. Good thing that he didn't, then, and that it was Michael Lewis who wrote the book. Although about Beane. Anyway, maybe Lewis is a meaningful metaphor for the KenPom stuff. I go through moments of thinking that Lewis is the best journalist in America, but every time he writes something-- Liar's Poker, or The New New Thing, or Moneyball, or The Blind Side--his insight gets lifted up and employed far beyond its worth. So, too, perhaps the tempo-free stats that the KenPom site presents.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 6, 2010 19:44:35 GMT -5
Anyone from the Charolottesville/Virginia area know anything about Whitelaw? (Gosh, that sounds wrong). Just curious what the deal is with him. From the poll attacks: "Does anybody know Whitelaw Reid from the Daily Progress in Virginia? We have to sit this guy down, ASAP. I busted him up in last week's Poll Attacks, and I thought he might listen and adjust. Alas, he did not. My man still has Villanova ranked No. 8 and Tennessee unranked despite the fact that Tennessee is undefeated with a neutral court win over Villanova. He still has Connecticut behind Michigan State, Kentucky and Washington despite the fact that Connecticut is undefeated with wins over Michigan State and Kentucky, both of which beat Washington. And he still has Missouri ahead of Georgetown despite the fact that Georgetown is undefeated with a road win at -- you'll never guess -- Missouri. That last game, a thriller, happened last Tuesday. Do you think Whitelaw heard about it? Do you think Whitelaw even knows the season is underway?"
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TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 6, 2010 19:46:26 GMT -5
Billy Beane never should have written Moneyball. Good thing that he didn't, then, and that it was Michael Lewis who wrote the book. Although about Beane. Anyway, maybe Lewis is a meaningful metaphor for the KenPom stuff. I go through moments of thinking that Lewis is the best journalist in America, but every time he writes something-- Liar's Poker, or The New New Thing, or Moneyball, or The Blind Side--his insight gets lifted up and employed far beyond its worth. So, too, perhaps the tempo-free stats that the KenPom site presents. You missed the joke...
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Post by williambraskyiii on Dec 6, 2010 19:54:44 GMT -5
Anyone from the Charolottesville/Virginia area know anything about Whitelaw? (Gosh, that sounds wrong). Just curious what the deal is with him. From the poll attacks: "Does anybody know Whitelaw Reid from the Daily Progress in Virginia? We have to sit this guy down, ASAP. I busted him up in last week's Poll Attacks, and I thought he might listen and adjust. Alas, he did not. My man still has Villanova ranked No. 8 and Tennessee unranked despite the fact that Tennessee is undefeated with a neutral court win over Villanova. He still has Connecticut behind Michigan State, Kentucky and Washington despite the fact that Connecticut is undefeated with wins over Michigan State and Kentucky, both of which beat Washington. And he still has Missouri ahead of Georgetown despite the fact that Georgetown is undefeated with a road win at -- you'll never guess -- Missouri. That last game, a thriller, happened last Tuesday. Do you think Whitelaw heard about it? Do you think Whitelaw even knows the season is underway?" A quick internets search uncovers that Mr. Reid hails from a very distinguished American family which includes a former ambassador to GB and a congressman.
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kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Posts: 9,934
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Post by kchoya on Dec 6, 2010 20:42:06 GMT -5
From the poll attacks: "Does anybody know Whitelaw Reid from the Daily Progress in Virginia? We have to sit this guy down, ASAP. I busted him up in last week's Poll Attacks, and I thought he might listen and adjust. Alas, he did not. My man still has Villanova ranked No. 8 and Tennessee unranked despite the fact that Tennessee is undefeated with a neutral court win over Villanova. He still has Connecticut behind Michigan State, Kentucky and Washington despite the fact that Connecticut is undefeated with wins over Michigan State and Kentucky, both of which beat Washington. And he still has Missouri ahead of Georgetown despite the fact that Georgetown is undefeated with a road win at -- you'll never guess -- Missouri. That last game, a thriller, happened last Tuesday. Do you think Whitelaw heard about it? Do you think Whitelaw even knows the season is underway?" A quick internets search uncovers that Mr. Reid hails from a very distinguished American family which includes a former ambassador to GB and a congressman. Wikipedia says he died on April 18, 2009. No wonder he sucks at filling out a ballot.
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Post by HometownHoya on Dec 6, 2010 23:07:08 GMT -5
A quick internets search uncovers that Mr. Reid hails from a very distinguished American family which includes a former ambassador to GB and a congressman. Wikipedia says he died on April 18, 2009. No wonder he sucks at filling out a ballot. Now thats interesting...must be one of his grandchildren? The deceased Whitelaw Reid was the heir to the New York Herald, so that may explain how the current one got his job?
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nodak89
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Roy Roy Royyyyy!!!
Posts: 1,881
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Post by nodak89 on Dec 6, 2010 23:08:51 GMT -5
;D Who is this Pomeroy guy anyway? I thought he lost his election thanks for the reminder, Boz
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gujake
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 831
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Post by gujake on Dec 6, 2010 23:23:22 GMT -5
And if the Ohio game is a good example of why KenPom shouldn't be taken as gospel / predictive, what does it say about other methods of evaluating teams? Did ANYONE have the Hoyas losing to Ohio after the Big East Tournament? Yeah, totally agreed. In fact, Kenpom only predicted that we had an 80% chance to win the Ohio game: kenpom.com/winprob.php?g=5708&y=2010I think the vast majority of "experts" would have predicted higher than that. As others have pointed out, it's not solely a "this team will win" prediction.
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