adlai
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 158
|
Post by adlai on Dec 7, 2010 8:17:39 GMT -5
Couldn't agree more. And according to that website last week the Hoyas were supposed to lose against Missouri. Oh, good lord. He posts a prediction and probabilities - nowhere does he claim anything like 100% accuracy -- in fact he clearly posts the likelihood of one team winning. It's not Ken Pomeroy's fault when misuse stats. He had a whole post evaluating his %s -- pointing out where's he's off and that he's going to improve his system: kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/prediction_tracker/This is the heart of it. KenPom gives a likelihood for each game. It doesn't mean who's going to win so every time he "misses" a game does not imply the "failure" of his system. Moreover, the basic set up of the site fully incorporates that the team favored to win does not always win, which allows for the "unpredictable" aspects of college basketball to affect the outcome. This can easily be seen by his use of cumulative probabilities in predicting the final record for teams. Thus, while Duke is currently predicted by KenPom to win each of it's remaining games individually, his current prediction is that they will most likely lose two games over the course of the season. In other words, he fully realizes that he is not going to call every game perfectly because what his system does is present the chance of winning based on previous results of the season, not a definitive prediction of who the actual winner will be. While some are complaining he had us losing to Missouri, the actual point is that he pretty much had it a toss up which, since it went to overtime, is actually what it was in statistical terms. Thus, he was dead on.
|
|
bmartin
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,459
|
Post by bmartin on Dec 7, 2010 8:44:17 GMT -5
If you want to complain about a rating complain about RPI. RPI is the stupidest rating ever invented.
Don't get wrapped up in the overall Kenpom ratings. The most useful things on that site are the adjusted stats. It says Georgetown has one of the best offenses in the country but not one of the best defenses. It says Temple has one of the best defenses but not a good offense. The further breakdowns show we rebound well especially on the defensive end, we are not creating many turnovers, we don't get to the foul line as much as other teams, and other things that those of us who watch every game know to be true. The point of Kenpom is to figure out teams' tendencies for all the teams we don't watch all the time.
|
|
GUMBA
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 737
|
Post by GUMBA on Dec 7, 2010 11:02:12 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 7, 2010 11:05:56 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure the power rankings are just luke winn not anyone else.
|
|
richfame
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,266
|
Post by richfame on Dec 7, 2010 12:30:36 GMT -5
Don't forget the emphasis on finishing strong. We haven't played one conference game yet. Being ranked top ten is awesome but let's not forget how important being regular season and tournament champs is.
|
|
kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Enter your message here...
Posts: 9,934
|
Post by kchoya on Dec 7, 2010 13:32:42 GMT -5
|
|
kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Enter your message here...
Posts: 9,934
|
Post by kchoya on Dec 7, 2010 13:33:29 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure the power rankings are just luke winn not anyone else. Plus, those rankings were posted 12/2/10.
|
|