EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,272
|
Post by EasyEd on Jul 28, 2008 18:18:30 GMT -5
McCain had mole-like tissue removed from his right cheek today. With his history of melanoma, if this turns out to be a recurrence, and God forbid if it is, he'd better select someone who is ready to step in as President if something goes wrong. I have personal family experience with melanoma and it's really bad stuff. www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/28/AR2008072801402.html |
|
HealyHoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Victory!!!
Posts: 1,059
|
Post by HealyHoya on Jul 28, 2008 18:50:21 GMT -5
Re the post about Romney locking up Utah: Utah is going GOP no matter the VP candidate. Romney's presence in Utah, if at all, will be strictly to raise non-alcoholic, non-caffeinated money. Hence the use of the  . Maybe [smartass][/smartass] tags would make things clearer. About the only person McCain could pick to cause him to lose Utah would probably be Harry Reid. right, my bad. evidently i need the message board equivalent of a pipe to the head to catch the sarcasm. that's, like, really impressive by me |
|
HealyHoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Victory!!!
Posts: 1,059
|
Post by HealyHoya on Jul 28, 2008 19:06:10 GMT -5
Gallup daily tracking now indicates that Obama has extended his lead, likely due to his Senate fact-finding trip to Afghanistan and Iraq and his subsequent address and meetings in Europe. The lead is starting to move enough, and McCain has not been able to generate enough buzz around his campaign, that McCain will likely want to take Obama out of the news this week ahead of the Olympics with his pick. If it becomes clear that he won't, Obama could make his pick and run a power play for the next month. So, the question becomes -- who is still left on the table? With all of the discussion of "niche" picks or "unprecedented" picks like a Joe Lieberman or Chuck Hagel, I think the candidates are basically down to a list that looks like one you could have put together 5 months ago. On the Republican side, I think McCain is basically down to Pawlenty and Romney. Pawlenty helps with the map and has a good buzz around his name. He'd help with the campaign's image. Beyond that, his contributions to the campaign are a bit unclear as far as issues are concerned. Romney, on the other hand, might help in Michigan, but he won't give you his home state. He'd be great on certain issues, like the economy, and he'd make a good attack dog. Portman and Thune might still be in the mix, but I think they are dark horses. Crist seems to be out too, and he should be because he tried too hard. Obama's list is still opaque to me in the sense that I think there could be a name or two that is missing from those who are being discussed publicly. The WSJ has the list at Clinton, Bayh, Biden, Dodd, Reed, Kaine, and Sebelius. I don't think Clinton thinks she is being considered, and I would be surprised if this is much more than a courtesy. I don't see Obama picking Sebelius because it would alienate some of the more high maintenance Clinton voters who would resent that another woman had the opportunity. Reed has basically pulled his name out, which probably means that he has been told that he is no longer being considered. Although Biden can be charming and engaging, he'd be a train wreck for "message discipline," so I see him as being eliminated in the next round of list trimming. Off of this list, I think it would be down to Dodd, Kaine, and Bayh. I think there are problems with Dodd and Bayh in terms of voting for the IWR and how that undermines Obama's core position. Kaine does not have foreign policy experience, which is not in his favor. Bayh and Kaine could at least give you a chance to pluck off a red state. Bayh would probably focus on IN and OH, and Kaine would focus more on VA and NC, where he would be more well-known. That being said, I see it as being a true toss-up as to who Obama picks. FWIW Ambassador and others. USA Today/Gallup updated: Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight. The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%. Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June. blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/07/gains-for-mccai.html |
|
|
|
Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jul 28, 2008 19:24:24 GMT -5
Tim Kaine didn't do himself any good by pushing a transportation plan in the regular Virginia legislative session and failing to get it passed. Then he called a special session for the express purpose of addressing transportation and again failed to get a bill passed. Of course he blames it on the Republicans but, had he been willing to compromise, he might have gotten something. Looks like you were doing some early opo-research, Ed.  www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/12115.html |
|
Filo
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,928
|
Post by Filo on Jul 28, 2008 20:29:18 GMT -5
Anyone know why Edwards is apparently not even in the running for Obama's runnig mate?
|
|
Jack
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,411
|
Post by Jack on Jul 28, 2008 20:54:38 GMT -5
Anyone know why Edwards is apparently not even in the running for Obama's runnig mate? I heard it is because he is Muslim. |
|
Filo
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,928
|
Post by Filo on Jul 28, 2008 21:02:52 GMT -5
Anyone know why Edwards is apparently not even in the running for Obama's runnig mate? I heard it is because he is Muslim. He's got a pretty angry wife, also? |
|
|
|
Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jul 28, 2008 22:23:12 GMT -5
I heard it is because he is Muslim. He's got a pretty angry wife, also? No, he just has one wife in each America ... |
|
The Stig
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,844
|
Post by The Stig on Jul 29, 2008 6:45:31 GMT -5
He's got a pretty angry wife, also? No, he just has one wife in each America ... Wait, wasn't that Romney? |
|
theexorcist
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,506 
|
Post by theexorcist on Jul 29, 2008 7:20:43 GMT -5
Really, why Kaine? He ran an average campaign against an average Republican challenger. He's not remarkably popular. And while the transportation mess can be blamed on a variety of people all over the state, Kaine wasn't able to fix it.
Really, if you want Virginia, grab Warner. The Democrats still have an edge in the Senate and they might be able to run a much lower stature candidate and still win against Mister I Didn't Repeal The Car Tax.
|
|
EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,272
|
Post by EasyEd on Jul 29, 2008 9:22:35 GMT -5
In Virginia, governors are not very powerful. The state is run by the legislature no matter whether a Democrat or a Republican is governor. And the legislature is usually led by legislators from non-urban areas. An example is the much-revered Mark Warner who is "credited" with putting the state finances on a sounder footing via tax increases. In fact, as detailed by the Washington Post yesterday in an editorial, Warner presented his tax package to the legislature and they completely rejected it, substituting its own version which Warner signed and, thereby, got "credit" for it. Tim Kaine did not learn from that lesson and he came away with nothing in his special session for transportation.
|
|
hifigator
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,387
|
Post by hifigator on Jul 29, 2008 10:58:14 GMT -5
Anyone know why Edwards is apparently not even in the running for Obama's runnig mate? Maybe it's because he is a shallow, artificial stiff. His strength was his likability. Now that he has lost much of that, he is another rich lawyer trying to act like he's a common man. |
|
Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Jul 29, 2008 11:48:27 GMT -5
Edwards doesn't really match Obama's theme, does he?
If you're the candidate of "change," I don't think you can pick the same VP who failed to win in the previous election, can you?
Plus, what hifi said. ;D
JK - While I don't agree with Edwards on anything, I actually don't think he's a stiff & is still pretty likable, but I'm not sure what he brings to the ticket - he's not experienced (not any more than he was 4 years ago), he's not a great fund-raiser, he's got little foreign policy cred (though he apologized for his war vote, which I'm sure Obama people like), I don't even think he helps with NC that much.
|
|
Bando
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
I've got some regrets!
Posts: 2,431
|
Post by Bando on Jul 29, 2008 11:50:58 GMT -5
I don' t think it's as clear cut as that. Public perception doesn't have to be fair, and I think the dominant frame is that of GOP intransigence. In fact, I believe Kaine called the special session because he knew he was in a win-win situation. I'm not really seeing that as the dominant theme here. Granted my source is mostly just the WP and the Examiner, but both seem to be pointing the finger equally at both sides and Kaine doesn't really come out looking all that great. Remember that Democrats helped to defeat Kaine's proposal (in favor of their own tax increase), so that's not good for him. I am seeing the coverage as pretty evenly critical of both sides, no one coming out looking better than anyone else. That usually does not favor the party with the greater share of power. Either way, Kaine's prospects for veep don't look great IMO. That's fair. I didn't think his prospects looked that great, anyway, but for different reasons (the lackluster response to the SOTU, his heterodoxy on some important liberal issues, his lack of an extensive record). |
|
Bando
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
I've got some regrets!
Posts: 2,431
|
Post by Bando on Jul 29, 2008 11:56:18 GMT -5
Anyone know why Edwards is apparently not even in the running for Obama's runnig mate? There's a National Enquirer story out now about his affair with another woman. Granted, it's the NE, so you should take it with 15 metric tons of salt, but it might be enough for Obama to hesitate. |
|
hifigator
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,387
|
Post by hifigator on Jul 29, 2008 12:03:40 GMT -5
Bando, I agree that the recent story in the Enquirer pretty much eliminates him from contention, but in all fairness, he was pretty much off the map prior to that story breaking. I was speaking somewhat tongue in cheek earlier, but I really do think that much of his "appeal" was that he was likable and presented himself as an ordinary person from down the street. The Southern drawl obviously adds to that to a degree, but he is anything but a commoner. Personally, I have very little interest for superficial clowns like him. I'd rather his present himself as Ted Kennedy does. They are very much the same person more than they are different. Yet 4 years ago, he was presented differently.
|
|
EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,272
|
Post by EasyEd on Jul 30, 2008 12:45:40 GMT -5
In 1956 Adlai Stevenson, the Democratic nominee, did not choose his running mate but turned it over to an open convention to do so. Estes Kefauver won the nomination for VP in a close race with John Kennedy but, when Stevenson/Kefauver lost in a landslide to Eisenhower, Kennedy became the heir apparent to the Democratic leadership and went on to win the presidency at the next election. I think it might do either Obama or McCain a lot of good not to choose a running mate but to let the convention decide. But, to do it right, they should make their intentions known well ahead of the convention so candidates could organize for it. Of course, the chance of that happening are slim to none.
|
|
|
|
Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Jul 30, 2008 13:53:10 GMT -5
That's a cool idea, ed. Sure would make the conventions more exciting.
|
|
Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Boz on Jul 30, 2008 14:21:28 GMT -5
Agreed. I doubt it would ever happen, but it would be a lot of fun.
And what a publicity coup it would be for the weeks leading up to the conventions.
I don't think Obama could do it though, unless he's resolved to the fact that he's OK with Hillary as a running mate. I think she'd almost certainly win if she decided that she wanted it.
I do think McCain could do that. There's little chance of a Ron Paul uprising at the convention, but there could be a conservative movement, meaning he'd end up with Palin, maybe Romney, even Huckabee if the social conservatives hold sway. Ridge, Crist and other moderates wouldn't stand a chance.
|
|
TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
|
Post by TBird41 on Jul 30, 2008 14:44:38 GMT -5
Agreed. I doubt it would ever happen, but it would be a lot of fun. And what a publicity coup it would be for the weeks leading up to the conventions. I don't think Obama could do it though, unless he's resolved to the fact that he's OK with Hillary as a running mate. I think she'd almost certainly win if she decided that she wanted it. I do think McCain could do that. There's little chance of a Ron Paul uprising at the convention, but there could be a conservative movement, meaning he'd end up with Palin, maybe Romney, even Huckabee if the social conservatives hold sway. Ridge, Crist and other moderates wouldn't stand a chance. Palin's out, whether or not the national media has reported it. The AK State legislature is in the process of appointing a special investigator to look into whether or not she abused the power of her office to get her sister's ex-husband fired, stemming from her firing of the Director of Public Safety. She also showed her chops by replacing him with someone who'd been reprimanded for sexual harassment, and then asked that guy to step down when she claimed not to know about the letter of reprimand he'd gotten for the sexual harassment incident. It's kind of complicated, but the story was all over the AK press (until Sen. Stevens usurped her front page status). No way McCain picks her now www.adn.com/monegan/story/478090.html |
|
. Maybe [smartass][/smartass] tags would make things clearer. 
