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Post by jerseyhoya34 on May 14, 2008 22:09:19 GMT -5
While some will probably disagree, I think we have 2 strong candidates this time around. If you asked me at the beginning of the year who I thought would be the strongest in their respective parties (out of those running), I would have said McCain and Obama. Heck, McCain may have been the best person to run in 2000. Now, Obama and McCain have their flaws and have sustained some knocks this year, but I suspect they'll run strong, competitive campaigns in the fall.
This leads me to believe that something at the margin, like VP selection, may be all the more important this year in what could be a tight race.
I don't know much about the supposed Republican short list, but Gov. Pawlenty (MN) and Condi Rice seem to be mentioned frequently.
Obama's task might be a bit tougher since he has to find some way of placating the traditional, blue collar base of HRC - a group that Obama will need to tap into significantly. While I generally don't think much of Dick Gephardt, I think his name is going to figure prominently. His credentials among blue collar Dems are second to none (maybe Edwards), and he has the added value of having some pull in MO, which I think Obama wants to make competitive. Unfortunately, he voted for the War Against Iraq.
Others obviously on the list will be Richardson and Edwards. There will probably also be some buzz around foreign policy niche options like Wes Clark, Sam Nunn, and Joe Biden, given Obama's relative inexperience in this area. There will be another grouping of Governors, including Sebelius of KS and Bredesen of TN. The former probably did not do herself any favors with the SOTU response. The latter has good credentials on healthcare policy.
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Post by AustinHoya03 on May 14, 2008 22:16:35 GMT -5
Unfortunately, he voted for the War Against Iraq. Is there anyone who voted AGAINST the AUMF who is a serious candidate? Just curious. |
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The Stig
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Post by The Stig on May 14, 2008 22:23:55 GMT -5
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on May 14, 2008 22:55:02 GMT -5
Unfortunately, he voted for the War Against Iraq. Is there anyone who voted AGAINST the AUMF who is a serious candidate? Just curious. No, but there are distinguished members of both chambers who voted against it. Graham of Florida might get some press, but probably not much more. I think it might be hard for Obama to find a VP because he will need to find someone who wasn't so strongly in favor as someone like Gephardt. He can't afford to have the same old debate that Kerry/Edwards faced engaged again given his strong and clear "against it from the start" message and his bigger message of change. Maybe this is an argument in favor of an elder statesman option like a Bill Bradley or Sam Nunn. |
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Bando
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Post by Bando on May 15, 2008 9:58:08 GMT -5
Jim Webb has been talked about, as he directly helps with the Appalachian whites Obama has had trouble with in the Dem primaries. He's got negatives though, especially with women. As there are a lot of women who support Hillary (check out the comments to NARAL's endorsement on their website yesterday, it's very angry), Webb is probably a bad idea to appeal to them. Sebelius makes a lot of sense, in those respects.
Huckabee still looks like a good bet for McCain. It won't do him any favors with independents, but it might lock down evangelical voters who might have stayed home otherwise. Someone under 55 is probably necessary, although that might highlight McCain's age rather than downplay it.
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Post by AustinHoya03 on May 21, 2008 21:24:37 GMT -5
McCain will be meeting with 3 candidates for VP in Arizona this Memorial Day weekend: Crist, Jindal and Romney. www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/21/america/21cndmccain.phpNot a ton of experience in office between those three. It's unclear if these guys are the three top candidates. FWIW, Pawlenty's people say he's got a wedding to attend on Saturday. Huckabee still looks like a good bet for McCain. It won't do him any favors with independents, but it might lock down evangelical voters who might have stayed home otherwise. Someone under 55 is probably necessary, although that might highlight McCain's age rather than downplay it. Based on the above info, it appears the McCain camp may indeed want someone who will play well with the "values" crowd, but who hasn't already scared the hell out of independents like Huck has. |
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on May 21, 2008 21:37:27 GMT -5
I think Webb would make a solid choice, particularly on military matters and the working class vote.
On the GOP side, Pawlenty has to be the favorite.
Either way, one former gubernatorial candidate won't make the short list...
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on May 21, 2008 22:20:01 GMT -5
I am somewhat surprised that Republican aides released this information, which will now lead to a media circus at the McCain residence in Phoenix this weekend. The only thing I can think of is that maybe they see an image problem and see something to be gained on that front from having the vetting process out in the public.
I don't think Romney is a serious contender given how he and McCain got along on the trail. This is likely a courtesy to him more than anything, and that is probably all he is due.
I wonder when Hillary will start vetting people on her list.
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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on May 21, 2008 23:54:13 GMT -5
I believe that speculation is not permitted on this board ...
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Boz
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Post by Boz on May 22, 2008 7:20:35 GMT -5
I believe that speculation is not permitted on this board ... ;D ;D |
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Post by mplshoya on May 22, 2008 19:33:28 GMT -5
Was in Tombs a few weeks ago....Gov. Charlie Crist was there in a tux (White House Correspondent's Dinner I think). We offered him a mug of Busch lite and he drank it down without batting an eye. Schmoozed with us a bit, nice guy. He's my choice for VP on that alone.
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moe09
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Post by moe09 on May 23, 2008 2:05:06 GMT -5
It's possible that they announced it publicly to keep McCain's name in the headlines. It seems the belief that the Dems' ongoing battle is at least doing one thing for them, which is keeping them in the spotlight.
As for Dems' VP I'm surprised no one has mentioned Hilldog. Sure, Hilldog voted for the war in Iraq, and obviously would go against Obama's "change" theme, but the fact is that I think these are minimal negatives. It's not going to be easy to find a fairly prominent candidate that didn't vote for the war in Iraq, and as for the "change" theme, it's easy to say something like, "to change we're going to need to have the old to bring in the new," or something like that. Quite frankly, Hilldog brings too much that Obama needs to the table to not strongly consider her. The blue collar and women's vote, and the fact that many who said they voted for Hilldog in the primaries would vote for McCain in the general election, are two very strong reasons to bring her along. Obama could really strengthen his reach in those two areas, and perhaps save many of the votes that would have otherwise fled to McCain.
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The Stig
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Post by The Stig on May 23, 2008 10:03:13 GMT -5
I think the assumption is that Hillary wouldn't accept the offer.
I wouldn't be surprised if Obama has already quietly offered her the VP spot in return for her quitting the race.
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Elvado
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Post by Elvado on May 23, 2008 10:18:26 GMT -5
Ifshe's his VP, he achieves the life expectancy of a fruit fly. People in the way of Clintons tend to disappear.
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Jack
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Post by Jack on May 23, 2008 10:27:08 GMT -5
I think the assumption is that Hillary wouldn't accept the offer. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama has already quietly offered her the VP spot in return for her quitting the race. This report suggests she is open to the possibility and Obama is at least uncomfortable with the prospect: abcnews.go.com/GMA/Politics/story?id=4917397&page=1Call me skeptical that she actually brings anything irreplaceable to the ticket. You can look elsewhere for experience (Biden, e.g.), blue collar cred (Edwards), and even appeal to women (Sebelius) without bringing along the Clinton circus. |
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on May 23, 2008 12:20:22 GMT -5
Why would Obama want Bill continually in the background taking all the oxygen?
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moe09
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Post by moe09 on May 23, 2008 15:24:43 GMT -5
But you just had to name 3 names to get all three of the traits that Hilldog has. I'm not saying it's likely, I just think it shouldn't be overlooked as an option. If I was Obama, I'd at least proffer something (during their inevitable talks), but the fact is it would all have to be under my control. I'd make sure that the Clintons understood very clearly things would be done the way I wanted them to be done, I'm running the show. If Hilldog didn't accept, I'd take my business elsewhere.
I really don't think Obama would by any means disappear behind the Clintons. She could bide her time as VP for 2 terms and try to ride the wave into a 2016 candidature. Plus I think the image of them together provides a very strong front for the Democratic Party (and for Obama), which at this point could use a little bit of caulk to fill in the cracks. Let's not forget on this board that whether Obama would "want Bill continually in the background taking all the oxygen" which I don't think would happen, since he's mainly just a face and speech giver at this point, that elections are about winning and I think Hilldog on Obama's ticket would give him a better chance than the other candidates out there at solidifying the Hilldog Dems who would otherwise end up voting for McCain.
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on May 23, 2008 15:45:47 GMT -5
Was in Tombs a few weeks ago....Gov. Charlie Crist was there in a tux (White House Correspondent's Dinner I think). We offered him a mug of Busch lite and he drank it down without batting an eye. Schmoozed with us a bit, nice guy. He's my choice for VP on that alone. He's getting a lot of play down here. He is a moderate, of similar style to McCain. In that sense, there would at least appear to be some degree of unity of thinking. Is that better or not is another question. Huckabee, who appears to be out of the mix now, and Romney would appeal to the true conservatives a bit more. The question is to what degree. Persoanally I want a strong moderate candidate. I would have voted for Lieberman for example if he were running as a Dem or Pub. In that regard, a McCain-Crist ticket would be hard to beat. For what it is worth, McCain leads Obama in key states, Florida and Ohio. With Crist on the ticket, that would seemingly ice Florida for him and could do no harm with in Ohio. |
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Jack
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Post by Jack on May 23, 2008 16:43:42 GMT -5
But you just had to name 3 names Well, except that Biden (and Nunn, and Webb, and others) have far more credibility than her on national security issues and Edwards certainly has more credibility than her with the working class. I will grant that she is a stronger addition to the ticket than any other woman I can think of, though I do have a soft spot for Georgetown mom Sebelius. Just because she can campaign against Obama on those characeteristics does not make her the right addition to the ticket. |
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moe09
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Post by moe09 on May 23, 2008 17:37:22 GMT -5
Never said it did, just figured she should at least be added to the discussion. Plus, I feel like Hilldog has a good amount of credibility amongst the public in these fields, if not at least competing with all of the other possible candidates, that warrants giving her serious thought.
Not to mention how big her name is, and the symbolic gesture for the party. I think this election is going to play out on the Hilldog to McCain train, and it's obvious to me that those people thought more of Hilldog than Edwards or Biden.
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