VP Selection Speculation

[jerseyhoya34]

Gallup daily tracking now indicates that Obama has extended his lead, likely due to his Senate fact-finding trip to Afghanistan and Iraq and his subsequent address and meetings in Europe. The lead is starting to move enough, and McCain has not been able to generate enough buzz around his campaign, that McCain will likely want to take Obama out of the news this week ahead of the Olympics with his pick. If it becomes clear that he won't, Obama could make his pick and run a power play for the next month.

So, the question becomes -- who is still left on the table? With all of the discussion of "niche" picks or "unprecedented" picks like a Joe Lieberman or Chuck Hagel, I think the candidates are basically down to a list that looks like one you could have put together 5 months ago.

On the Republican side, I think McCain is basically down to Pawlenty and Romney. Pawlenty helps with the map and has a good buzz around his name. He'd help with the campaign's image. Beyond that, his contributions to the campaign are a bit unclear as far as issues are concerned. Romney, on the other hand, might help in Michigan, but he won't give you his home state. He'd be great on certain issues, like the economy, and he'd make a good attack dog. Portman and Thune might still be in the mix, but I think they are dark horses. Crist seems to be out too, and he should be because he tried too hard.

Obama's list is still opaque to me in the sense that I think there could be a name or two that is missing from those who are being discussed publicly. The WSJ has the list at Clinton, Bayh, Biden, Dodd, Reed, Kaine, and Sebelius. I don't think Clinton thinks she is being considered, and I would be surprised if this is much more than a courtesy. I don't see Obama picking Sebelius because it would alienate some of the more high maintenance Clinton voters who would resent that another woman had the opportunity. Reed has basically pulled his name out, which probably means that he has been told that he is no longer being considered. Although Biden can be charming and engaging, he'd be a train wreck for "message discipline," so I see him as being eliminated in the next round of list trimming. Off of this list, I think it would be down to Dodd, Kaine, and Bayh. I think there are problems with Dodd and Bayh in terms of voting for the IWR and how that undermines Obama's core position. Kaine does not have foreign policy experience, which is not in his favor. Bayh and Kaine could at least give you a chance to pluck off a red state. Bayh would probably focus on IN and OH, and Kaine would focus more on VA and NC, where he would be more well-known. That being said, I see it as being a true toss-up as to who Obama picks.

[EasyEd]

Tim Kaine didn't do himself any good by pushing a transportation plan in the regular Virginia legislative session and failing to get it passed. Then he called a special session for the express purpose of addressing transportation and again failed to get a bill passed. Of course he blames it on the Republicans but, had he been willing to compromise, he might have gotten something.

[rosslynhoya]

Robert Rubin looks increasingly interesting as a potential Obama pick. He's got the mandatory "safe white guy" credentials without the handicaps of being a Senator or a failed candidate. Even as a right-leaning guy, I'd be a lot happier if there were someone intelligent and competent on the Dem ticket.

[Bando]

Jul 27, 2008 18:15:02 GMT -5 EasyEd said:

Tim Kaine didn't do himself any good by pushing a transportation plan in the regular Virginia legislative session and failing to get it passed. Then he called a special session for the express purpose of addressing transportation and again failed to get a bill passed. Of course he blames it on the Republicans but, had he been willing to compromise, he might have gotten something.

I really think that hurt the legislature's Republicans more than it hurt Kaine. He can go directly to the voters and say "See, this is why I need a Democratic legislature." It's pretty hard to compromise when your opponent's position is "we won't spend any money on transportation."

[hifigator]

We're nearing August and neither candidate has a clear cut favorite for the nomination. Is that normal? It seems like we normally have a better idea by now. Obviously, if there is an incumbant, that tends to give us one ticket. But that aside, it seems like we normally have a good idea for atleast on ticket by now.

[EasyEd]

Jul 28, 2008 11:41:03 GMT -5 Bando said:

Jul 27, 2008 18:15:02 GMT -5 EasyEd said:

Tim Kaine didn't do himself any good by pushing a transportation plan in the regular Virginia legislative session and failing to get it passed. Then he called a special session for the express purpose of addressing transportation and again failed to get a bill passed. Of course he blames it on the Republicans but, had he been willing to compromise, he might have gotten something.

I really think that hurt the legislature's Republicans more than it hurt Kaine. He can go directly to the voters and say "See, this is why I need a Democratic legislature." It's pretty hard to compromise when your opponent's position is "we won't spend any money on transportation."

If the legislature had passed the transportation bill, who do you think would get "credit" for it? Tim Kaine, of course. But the legislature did not pass the bill, so who gets "credit" for that? I think it's Kaine.

[DFW HOYA]

Jul 28, 2008 11:53:19 GMT -5 hifigator said:

We're nearing August and neither candidate has a clear cut favorite for the nomination. Is that normal?

Vice Presidents Cheney and Gore were each officially named one week prior to their respective conventions. Cheney, as many will recall, led the committee to vet Bush's VP candidates.

Some selections were even more sudden--Geraldine Ferraro wasn't named until four days before the 1984 Democratic convention, while the elder George Bush (1980) and Dan Quayle (1988) were not actually named until the conventions were underway.

[HealyHoya]

Jul 28, 2008 11:53:19 GMT -5 hifigator said:

We're nearing August and neither candidate has a clear cut favorite for the nomination. Is that normal? It seems like we normally have a better idea by now. Obviously, if there is an incumbant, that tends to give us one ticket. But that aside, it seems like we normally have a good idea for atleast on ticket by now.

Romney is the favorite. Definitions of "clear cut" may vary but he's clearly in the top spot right now. Look for him to be announced as the VP in a couple of weeks.

[Boz]

I agree Romney's the favorite.
I'm not sure about the couple weeks part.
I don't really agree with the whole "McCain needs a buzz generator" concept. Does that really carry through any extended period of time? I think Romney delivers help in some areas where McCain needs it most. He wouldn't just help in Michigan, but also in the Mountain West.

I'd be really shocked if Obama picked Kaine. Governor Sling Blade is not exactly wowing them here in Virginia. I think Obama would have LOVED to have been able to pick Mark Warner, but they want (and will probably get) that Senate seat. I don't think Dodd and Biden do that much for him; if he's going that route, he's more likely to pick Reed. Bayh is a nice, safe pick, even though I don't think they take Indiana even with him. If he picks a woman (Sebelius or McCaskill) that is NOT Hillary, that could be very risky. I think I'd put Reed and Bayh at the top of the list.

[Bando]

Jul 28, 2008 12:11:27 GMT -5 EasyEd said:

Jul 28, 2008 11:41:03 GMT -5 Bando said:

I really think that hurt the legislature's Republicans more than it hurt Kaine. He can go directly to the voters and say "See, this is why I need a Democratic legislature." It's pretty hard to compromise when your opponent's position is "we won't spend any money on transportation."

If the legislature had passed the transportation bill, who do you think would get "credit" for it? Tim Kaine, of course. But the legislature did not pass the bill, so who gets "credit" for that? I think it's Kaine.

I don' t think it's as clear cut as that. Public perception doesn't have to be fair, and I think the dominant frame is that of GOP intransigence. In fact, I believe Kaine called the special session because he knew he was in a win-win situation.

[hifigator]

Ferraro was somewhat of a late surprise, but the others you mentioned were the "favorites." I just don't see a consensus favorite at all. Obviously the 3 guys who visited McCain's ranch were presumed to be the finalists. But everyday now, we keep hearing another name. And on Obama's side it is basically all speculation -- nothing even remotely from the horse's mouth.

[Boz]

Jul 28, 2008 14:18:09 GMT -5 Bando said:

I don' t think it's as clear cut as that. Public perception doesn't have to be fair, and I think the dominant frame is that of GOP intransigence. In fact, I believe Kaine called the special session because he knew he was in a win-win situation.

I'm not really seeing that as the dominant theme here. Granted my source is mostly just the WP and the Examiner, but both seem to be pointing the finger equally at both sides and Kaine doesn't really come out looking all that great. Remember that Democrats helped to defeat Kaine's proposal (in favor of their own tax increase), so that's not good for him.

I am seeing the coverage as pretty evenly critical of both sides, no one coming out looking better than anyone else. That usually does not favor the party with the greater share of power.

Either way, Kaine's prospects for veep don't look great IMO.

[kchoya]

Well, if McCain picks Romney, you can definitely put Utah in the McCain column.

[EasyEd]

Jul 28, 2008 15:00:49 GMT -5 kchoya said:

Well, if McCain picks Romney, you can definitely put Utah in the McCain column.

If McCain picks Romney, he loses the election. As unfair as it sounds, it's the Mormon issue.

[HealyHoya]

Jul 28, 2008 14:08:35 GMT -5 Boz said:

I agree Romney's the favorite.
I'm not sure about the couple weeks part.
I don't really agree with the whole "McCain needs a buzz generator" concept. Does that really carry through any extended period of time? I think Romney delivers help in some areas where McCain needs it most. He wouldn't just help in Michigan, but also in the Mountain West.

I'd be really shocked if Obama picked Kaine. Governor Sling Blade is not exactly wowing them here in Virginia. I think Obama would have LOVED to have been able to pick Mark Warner, but they want (and will probably get) that Senate seat. I don't think Dodd and Biden do that much for him; if he's going that route, he's more likely to pick Reed. Bayh is a nice, safe pick, even though I don't think they take Indiana even with him. If he picks a woman (Sebelius or McCaskill) that is NOT Hillary, that could be very risky. I think I'd put Reed and Bayh at the top of the list.

My (educated) guess regarding the timing of the announcement has less to do with the anticipated bump in buzz and more to do with the advantages the announcement provides the campaign.

First and foremost, it will provide a rash of print, radio and tv hits. We can debate the length and depth of the coverage but it will happen. That's a plus for McCain.

Second, the McCain campaign can essentially bifurcate and double their exposure. This is very helpful, especially when your candidate is older. Romney brings his coalitions, his precinct captains, his state organizations, call lists -- his entire grassroots campaign infrastructure.

Next, Romney can fundraise in addition to McCain. That's extra time to fundraise, extra time to cull through Romney's fundraising lists, tap the Mormon money (don't underestimate that).

The sooner Romney is announced, the sooner he hits Michigan, the sooner Obama needs to spend more time and money there than he wants to. Re the post about Romney locking up Utah: Utah is going GOP no matter the VP candidate. Romney's presence in Utah, if at all, will be strictly to raise non-alcoholic, non-caffeinated money.

I'm not sold that Romney is the best pick but those would be the reasons it happens in the next couple of weeks.

[strummer8526]

Jul 28, 2008 12:11:27 GMT -5 EasyEd said:

Jul 28, 2008 11:41:03 GMT -5 Bando said:

I really think that hurt the legislature's Republicans more than it hurt Kaine. He can go directly to the voters and say "See, this is why I need a Democratic legislature." It's pretty hard to compromise when your opponent's position is "we won't spend any money on transportation."

If the legislature had passed the transportation bill, who do you think would get "credit" for it? Tim Kaine, of course. But the legislature did not pass the bill, so who gets "credit" for that? I think it's Kaine.

You're talking about who the public would give credit to if it passed and who YOU give blame to for it not passing. It's two very different things. Your own position on Kaine and his transportation bill can't be analogized to the vague "credit" that would be given by a whole population had the bill passed.

As for Obama, I would really like to see Dodd or Biden. They strike me as the kind of politicians and experienced figures that everyone claims they want to run for president but then don't vote for when they do.

[HealyHoya]

Jul 28, 2008 15:18:33 GMT -5 EasyEd said:

Jul 28, 2008 15:00:49 GMT -5 kchoya said:

Well, if McCain picks Romney, you can definitely put Utah in the McCain column.

If McCain picks Romney, he loses the election. As unfair as it sounds, it's the Mormon issue.

If that happens (and if it can actually be proven) then Republicans have absolutely no one to blame for four years of Obama in the WH, and at least two years of Dem control of both houses of Congress, than themselves.

Much of the buzz now posits that the Dems would be hard pressed to make Romney's religion a top-shelf, nationwide campaign issue given Obama's background (Reverend Wright, presence of Islam, etc.).

[NB: Don't shoot the messenger. That's the buzz.]

[hifigator]

While I wouldn't mind Romney personally, I think ed is right and too many moderates might go for Barack. For that reason alone, I am hoping McCain picks someone else. I would really like to see him pick Lieberman, but I think he has about as much chance as I do of getting selected.

[HealyHoya]

Jul 28, 2008 15:45:22 GMT -5 hifigator said:

While I wouldn't mind Romney personally, I think ed is right and too many moderates might go for Barack. For that reason alone, I am hoping McCain picks someone else. I would really like to see him pick Lieberman, but I think he has about as much chance as I do of getting selected.

Lieberman would alienate more conservatives than Romney would alienate moderates.

[kchoya]

Jul 28, 2008 15:22:39 GMT -5 HealyHoya said:

Re the post about Romney locking up Utah: Utah is going GOP no matter the VP candidate. Romney's presence in Utah, if at all, will be strictly to raise non-alcoholic, non-caffeinated money.

Hence the use of the . Maybe [smartass][/smartass] tags would make things clearer.

About the only person McCain could pick to cause him to lose Utah would probably be Harry Reid.