TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 11, 2007 17:10:12 GMT -5
c) I think GU will make the NCAAs. The weak OOC may affect its ability to get, say, a 1, 2, or 3 ranking. Someone wrote that GU could go 10-8 and make the NCAAs. Not without a win at Memphis they don't. No way, no how. What if they win the BET? Would they be able to get in then even though they went 10-8 and didn't beat Memphis? /sarcasm
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Dec 11, 2007 17:12:19 GMT -5
filo, we should count the number of top 20 teams the other top teams are playing because we are competing against them for seeding. our schedule doesn't exist in a vacuum. Let's do that... according to the schedules on ESPN.com, these are the games against (now, or at the time) top 25 teams, on the schedules of each of these teams. Because the schedule does not exist in a vacuum, conference games are included. Texas: 7 WSU: 7 Marquette: 7 GEORGETOWN: 6 Duke: 6 UCLA: 6 Pitt: 6 Michigan State: 5 UNC: 5 Kansas: 4
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theexorcist
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Post by theexorcist on Dec 11, 2007 17:13:54 GMT -5
I raised this issue in the games of interest thread over the weekend. A few points: (snip) c) I think GU will make the NCAAs. The weak OOC may affect its ability to get, say, a 1, 2, or 3 ranking. Someone wrote that GU could go 10-8 and make the NCAAs. Not without a win at Memphis they don't. No way, no how. GU loses to Memphis, they need 11, probably 12 wins to make the tourney. Will they get it? I think so. (snip) But the OOC conference schedule is weak, and the press references to the last time GU being undefeated being the last Esh year are unintentionally ironic, because the schedule is pretty lame just as it was back then. If Georgetown loses to Memphis, beats Radford, American and Fordham, goes 10-8, and loses in the first round of the Big East tournament, they will be 20-10. They will be in the NCAA. And the last year of the Esh era, this was GU's OOC schedule - Grambling St., Penn St., Coastal Carolina, Delaware St., Norfolk St., Davidson, Elon, Howard,The Citadel, Duke (EDIT), and Temple. Tell me with a straight face that this schedule even approaches that.
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vcjack
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Post by vcjack on Dec 11, 2007 17:20:43 GMT -5
"b) This isn't up for debate - it is one of the worst in the country and the worst in the league and I don't expect it to change much. This idea that Michigan or Alabama are going to become Oregon or Vanderbilt - don't hold your breath. GU's NCAA seed will suffer as a result. " Not to keep adding to the flames but.. - "the worst in the league" Mike Brey laughs at this comparison. Plus look at the other Big East teams so far, how many of them have had true road games? Louisville hasn't, UConn hasn't, Notre Dame hasn't at all, Marquette only because they have a preset rivalry game with Wisconsin, Syracuse only one and this is their first in years. Before conference starts we will have 3 true roadies and one "neutral" that in reality was a road - "This idea that Michigan or Alabama are going to become Oregon or Vanderbilt" If you remember we LOST to Oregon, The fact that Oregon turned out to be good didn't give us a better seed, it just kept that loss from hurting us more. And as for UM and Bama, the B10 and SEC are reallllllly weak, they will win games and be competative - "our seed will suffer as a result" not if we don't lose
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Dec 11, 2007 17:23:18 GMT -5
We play a top 5 team on the road, and we play 18 Big East Games... half on the road, then we play in the BET in NYC.
We have tons of quality games. We'll be fine.
I am more worried about our poor free throw shooting than I am about our schedule.
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Post by vamosalaplaya on Dec 11, 2007 17:30:48 GMT -5
I was all over how bad ND's schedule was - it was atrocious. But Baylor, Georgia Tech and Kansas State look to be better than any opponent GU plays but Memphis. Their SOS may fall below GU's with their last few games. And to be clear - ND goes 10-8 in the Big East, they do not make the tourney.
Unless you believe that GU's OOC opponents will improve, then, by definition, the verdict is in - the schedule is weak. It may improve vis a vis BE foes slightly with the two games against Lousville - maybe - but it should end up as being one of the bottom four overall SOSs in the Big East conference going into the BET.
And no way does GU make the tourney if they lose to Memphis, go 10-8, without, as TBird noted, a run in the BET. 10-8 would put them what, sixth, seventh in the conference?
Anyway, it is either a silly, or academic, conversation to have in many ways, and FLH makes great points about how the team is being prepared. But the schedule is weak from a numbers standpoint and GU, if they lose to Memphis, brings nothing to Big East play in terms of helping fellow conference members make the NCAAs. It is simple math, unless you believe teams like Fordham, Michigan, and Bama are going to surprise and finish in the top half of their conferences.
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theexorcist
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Post by theexorcist on Dec 11, 2007 17:38:16 GMT -5
Someone once described unrequited love as banging your head against a wall that doesn't exist.
For some reason, reading through this thread reminded me of that quote.
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Dec 11, 2007 17:51:51 GMT -5
I was all over how bad ND's schedule was - it was atrocious. But Baylor, Georgia Tech and Kansas State look to be better than any opponent GU plays but Memphis. Their SOS may fall below GU's with their last few games. And to be clear - ND goes 10-8 in the Big East, they do not make the tourney. Unless you believe that GU's OOC opponents will improve, then, by definition, the verdict is in - the schedule is weak. It may improve vis a vis BE foes slightly with the two games against Lousville - maybe - but it should end up as being one of the bottom four overall SOSs in the Big East conference going into the BET. Not quite -- Georgetown currently has the ninth toughest SOS in the conference according to Jeff Sagarin, in a ranking that will only become better once the remaining games--including Memphis--are added in. (SOS rank is the number in parentheses) 7 Pittsburgh = 89.72 8 0 69.56( 286) 8 Georgetown = 89.67 7 0 71.36( 233) 9 West Virginia = 88.88 6 1 71.67( 225) 14 Marquette = 87.80 5 1 78.64( 25) 24 Louisville = 85.68 5 2 74.88( 105) 26 Villanova = 84.96 7 1 73.15( 173) 29 Notre Dame = 84.70 7 2 70.63( 259) 39 Providence = 83.66 6 3 77.15( 43) 42 Connecticut = 83.07 6 2 71.27( 236) 50 Syracuse = 81.92 6 3 76.59( 53) 100 DePaul = 77.82 2 3 76.39( 55) 105 Seton Hall = 77.62 7 2 71.26( 237) 110 South Florida = 76.72 7 3 71.95( 215) 111 St. John's = 76.69 4 1 67.88( 316) 169 Rutgers = 72.19 6 3 68.33( 308) 180 Cincinnati = 71.68 4 4 67.56( 321)
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hoyaboy1
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Post by hoyaboy1 on Dec 11, 2007 17:55:09 GMT -5
I am really confused about what people are arguing in this thread, particularly those defending the schedule.
Are you saying:
A - This type of schedule is ideal B - Whatever schedule JTIII picks is ideal C - This schedule isn't great, but it isn't crippling either D - The schedule sucks but so does that of many other teams
Personally, I'm in camp C - I don't think we'll be hurt by it per se, but I do think we'd be helped by 1 or 2 more tough games.
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Post by afalcon10 on Dec 11, 2007 18:02:46 GMT -5
Though we are quibbling over allllll types of stuff - I haven't heard anybody argue that one or two tougher OOC games would do us harm in anyway - which is all I was suggesting. No, the worlds not over, jt3 will have dem boys well prepared and we will kick butt regardless but it seems that nobody disagrees with my proposal that we include a couple tougher games early in the season to help expose weaknesses and better prepare us for big east play. If you do think this will ultimately do harm to the Georgetown Basketball program: speak now. Go Hoyas Beat Memphis.
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Post by Hoya TMF on Dec 11, 2007 18:29:04 GMT -5
afalcon, i totally agree. as a self-interested fan i'm disappointed we aren't playing better teams. as a more practical fan, i just wonder how we'll stack up on paper at the end of the year if the Big East continues to lose all of it's marquee ooc games. but if we beat memphis on the road, i doubt i'll care very much.
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Post by vamosalaplaya on Dec 11, 2007 19:46:08 GMT -5
Realtimerpi.com has GU dead last in SOS rating.
Pomeroy has GU 11th out of 16. Pitt, which is currently behind GU in Pomeroy, finishes OOC with Okla St, Duke, and Dayton and will no doubt pass GU. Cincy, also just behind GU in Pomeroy, finishes with Xavier, NC State, Memphis and Miami OH and will pass GU as well.
American, Fordham, and Radford (!) are going to wipe out any benefit from the Memphis game. Enough already, the schedule is crap from a numbers standpoint.
Anyway, I agree with Afalcon and 0206 overall.
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Post by redskins12820 on Dec 11, 2007 20:17:48 GMT -5
filo, we should count the number of top 20 teams the other top teams are playing because we are competing against them for seeding. our schedule doesn't exist in a vacuum. Let's do that... according to the schedules on ESPN.com, these are the games against (now, or at the time) top 25 teams, on the schedules of each of these teams. Because the schedule does not exist in a vacuum, conference games are included. Texas: 7 WSU: 7 Marquette: 7 GEORGETOWN: 6 Duke: 6 UCLA: 6 Pitt: 6 Michigan State: 5 UNC: 5 Kansas: 4 Well your info is just wrong. UCLA plays Arizona, Oregon and Wash State in conference and they are all top 25 (not to mention USC or Stanford which have been there this season and are just outside). Home and home series so that is 6 already. Add in Texas and Michigan state and that's 8. Might be more, but those are the ones I can think of.
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PopeJohn2
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Post by PopeJohn2 on Dec 11, 2007 21:03:34 GMT -5
i think the weak schedule was by design as iii knew this team needs time to figure out l.a.g. (life after green). until we play memphis we cant really get a good gauge of how competitive this team will be. but if we cant improve our ft%, it wont matter.
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FLHoya
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Post by FLHoya on Dec 11, 2007 21:13:34 GMT -5
I am really confused about what people are arguing in this thread, particularly those defending the schedule. Are you saying: A - This type of schedule is ideal B - Whatever schedule JTIII picks is ideal C - This schedule isn't great, but it isn't crippling either D - The schedule sucks but so does that of many other teams Personally, I'm in camp C - I don't think we'll be hurt by it per se, but I do think we'd be helped by 1 or 2 more tough games. I guess sort of C. Not disputing that the SOS is weaker than other years. Just saying that SOS alone doesn't give the full picture of whether a team is prepared for conference season/NCAA tournament play. Has more to do with which teams you play, where you play them, and what you intend to get from the games.
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Post by hoyalawyer on Dec 11, 2007 21:23:12 GMT -5
People have to keep in mind that NCAA Seeding is important, but having a high(er) is not a guarantee that you will win a national championship. Some very other important considerations is player development, for this year, as well as down the road. The trade off of a higher seed by adding 1-2 stronger OOC opponents is that the younger players (FRESHMAN Wright and Freeman, SOPHOMORES Rivers, Macklin) will not have as much of an opportunity to contribute significantly (see Alabama on the Road, where it was our starters who lead the charge). This opportunity for early playing time that the younger players have by virtue of our schedule will help 1. Have them ready THIS YEAR for when it Really counts -By the time Conference play comes around, the FR-SO bench will have avg. btwn 15-20 minutes per game each. 2. Have them ready for NEXT YEAR when they will be STARTERS - We lose AT LEAST 3 of our starters (possibly DaJuan if he keeps improving) so you have to realize that 2 of the 3 guards (Wright, Rivers, Freeman), and definitely MACKLIN will be starters by next year. This EARLY SEASON PLAYING TIME NOW, will help them learn how to handle a LONG SEASON, NEXT YEAR AS WELL
3. The STARTERS (mostly seniors) are BATTLE PROVEN... they will be ready when the time comes... the freshman (and Vern, more so than Jeremiah) NEED THE COURT TIME TO BE READY for the post season.
So before we get lost in all the SOS talk... keep in mind the BIG PICTURE.. 1. Conference Play 2. NCAA TOURNAMENT PLAY 3. Player Development 4. TEAM COHESIVENESS 5. the FUTURE
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Filo
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Post by Filo on Dec 11, 2007 21:42:54 GMT -5
Well, I think we've beaten this horse pretty well, but I'll just address a couple more points and call it a day. I am really confused about what people are arguing in this thread, particularly those defending the schedule. Are you saying: A - This type of schedule is ideal B - Whatever schedule JTIII picks is ideal C - This schedule isn't great, but it isn't crippling either D - The schedule sucks but so does that of many other teams Personally, I'm in camp C - I don't think we'll be hurt by it per se, but I do think we'd be helped by 1 or 2 more tough games. Well, I am going to cheat and add a 5th response, which is my answer and a slight variation to C: E = This schedule isn't great, but it is more than adequate to prepare the team for conference play, and I don't think it will wind up hurting the team at all in terms of NCAA tourney seeding and play. Though we are quibbling over allllll types of stuff - I haven't heard anybody argue that one or two tougher OOC games would do us harm in anyway - which is all I was suggesting. No, the worlds not over, jt3 will have dem boys well prepared and we will kick butt regardless but it seems that nobody disagrees with my proposal that we include a couple tougher games early in the season to help expose weaknesses and better prepare us for big east play. If you do think this will ultimately do harm to the Georgetown Basketball program: speak now. Go Hoyas Beat Memphis. I won't disagree that another tough OOC opponent or two would be a nice addition to the schedule. However, I think the points raised by Hoyalawya and FLHoya make a pretty good case why they were not really necessary, or could even have been detrimental if they came too early, at least this year. Anyway, it is great time to be a Hoyas fan if these are the contentious issues right now. The program sure has come a long way.
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Post by afalcon10 on Dec 11, 2007 21:46:31 GMT -5
amen brotha i love you all now lets beat memphis so i dont have to hear everybodys **** until uconn pitt nd cuse etc.
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lichoya68
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Post by lichoya68 on Dec 11, 2007 22:27:44 GMT -5
coach knows what he is doing COACH KNOWS WHAT HES DOING now beat radford then the games begin go hoyas ;D ;D ;D
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Dec 12, 2007 10:56:03 GMT -5
Realtimerpi.com has GU dead last in SOS rating. Pomeroy has GU 11th out of 16. Pitt, which is currently behind GU in Pomeroy, finishes OOC with Okla St, Duke, and Dayton and will no doubt pass GU. Cincy, also just behind GU in Pomeroy, finishes with Xavier, NC State, Memphis and Miami OH and will pass GU as well. American, Fordham, and Radford (!) are going to wipe out any benefit from the Memphis game. Enough already, the schedule is crap from a numbers standpoint. Anyway, I agree with Afalcon and 0206 overall. Where are you getting that from? Are you talking about the Big East? By all accounts that I have seen, we are 296 overall or so. That's not last. More to the point, you guys keep pointing to this, but it means nothing right now. St Mary's was ranked #1 in the RPI until yesterday when they lost... to Southern Illinois. Stop talking about RPI SOS ! Everyone here will admit that we dont have that strong of an OOC but it has nothing to do the with RPI.
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