bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Apr 1, 2015 8:37:45 GMT -5
Scout 2012 Shooting Guard Rankings1. Rasheed Sulaimon- dismissed from team for rape allegations 2. Marcus Smart-NBA (2 years) 3. Archie Goodwin-NBA (1 year) 4. Gary Harris-NBA (2 years) 5. Ricardo Ledo-NBA (1 year) 6. Rodney Purvis-transfer 7. Danuel House-transfer 8. Katin Reinhardt-transfer 9. D’vauntes Smith-rivera (3 years-averaged 9,17 and 16, then declared for draft) 10. Omar Calhoun (averaged 5.5 ppg for UCONN this year) 11. Aaron Thomas (declared ineligible) 12. Jordan Price- transfer 13. Melvin Johnson (averaged 12.4 ppg for VCU this year) 14. Gabe York (averaged 9.2 ppg for Arizona) 15. Alex Caruso (averaged 9.1 ppg for Texas A&M this year) 16. Kellen Dunham (averaged 16.5 ppg for Butler this year) 17. Rapheal Davis (averaged 10.7 ppg for Purdue this year) 18. Marqueze Coleman (averaged 9.4 ppg for Nevada this year) 19. Michael Frazier II (averaged 12 ppg this year, declared for draft) 20. Carlos Morris (JUCO, one year player for MINN this year) Looking at this list and where these players ended up, I’m pretty satisfied with getting three really good years out of DSR. I guess the only one I would even consider trading would be a 4 years from Kellen Dunham or Smart/Harris for 2 years. One interesting thing about that list is that on Pomeroy's site, the most similar player to L.J. Peak's freshman season was Rodney Purvis' freshman year at NC State.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Apr 1, 2015 8:26:13 GMT -5
Kansas City columnist Sam Mellinger in response to an Izzo vs. Self question: www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/dont-kill-the-mellinger/article17006498.html"...Izzo has a much better NCAA Tournament record than Self, though even with this year’s Final Four, their records over the last decade are very similar:
Six Sweet 16s, three Final Fours, no titles, 23 total wins for Izzo.
Six Sweet 16s, two Final Fours, one title, 23 total wins for Self.
The big difference, of course, is in regular-season performance and NCAA Tournament seeding. Nobody regularly outplays their seeding like Michigan State. This really is pretty crazy. In the last decade, the Spartans’ average seeding is 5.7. Over that same time, Kansas has been seeded first five times, second three times, third twice, fourth once, and never worse.
It’s obviously very close, and I guess what it comes down to in large part is expectation. Self’s teams have been regularly terrific in the regular season, which builds up expectation. Izzo’s teams have often muddied their way through the regular season, which means tournament wins are celebrated a little more."There also is a ranking of Self's NCAA losses at Kansas. Most notable to me is that he ranks losing to VCU in the Elite 8 as the 2nd worse loss, worse than one loss in the round of 64 and three losses in the round of 32.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 31, 2015 9:03:13 GMT -5
I agree that the long-term tournament success of both Izzo and Pitino is their focus on defense and rebounding. That keeps them in games, so when they make shots they can go on a tournament run.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 31, 2015 7:05:02 GMT -5
Want an Izzo secret for avoiding off nights in the tourney? Rank JTIII's seasons by offensive rebound percentage and then write down the postseason (NIT and NCAA) wins next to those respective years. See what you get. Best post of this discussion. Izzo does so well because when the tourney comes around they rebound both ends so well. That was my first thought but UVA actually killed them on the boards and both Oklahoma and Louisville slightly out rebounded MSU as well. The big stat in their favor in those three games is three point shooting, which goes against the conventional wisdom about Izzo teams. MSU made 24 threes in that run and gave up only 10.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 30, 2015 20:59:48 GMT -5
You do not understand my point. I am agreeing they have good players and a good team and that their NCAA record is worthy of all the praise it receives. But they shouldn't get extra praise for winning as a 7-seed when if they had played up to their ability during the regular season they would have been a 4-seed. Michigan State has talent at least equal to UVA, Oklahoma, and Louisville they just didn't play like it during the regular season. It is still a great run to beat them all. I am only objecting to the 538 chart that rates coaches for playing above their seeds without considering that in many cases they were lower seeds because their teams did not live up to expectations during the regular season.
I was more annoyed by Calipari being 3rd on the list behind Izzo and Pitino. Calipari should not get extra credit for taking Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, Patterson, Orton, et al to the Final Four as a 4-seed when they should not have lost 6 SEC games and should not have been a 4-seed. Unless you think that not showing up for half a dozen conference games somehow helped them play better in March.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 30, 2015 19:04:06 GMT -5
They lost to Texas Southern, Illinois and Minnesota at home. So his teams peak at the right moment. Yea, but you don't have to play below your talent in December, January, and February in order to play your best in March. Losing to Texas Southern in December does not make you more likely to beat UVA in March. If they are so good at fundamentals why did they have four bad losses?
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 30, 2015 15:43:37 GMT -5
Yep. Izzo and Pitino overperform in the tourney (or do they underperform in the regular season?). K is simply a great coach, but he's not been immune to upsets. He's done a good job getting his team to come together defensively, but it's not a shock that he's peaking now when several of his best players are elite freshmen. (And before anyone says it... our freshmen were very good at the very end of the season -- but they aren't Winslow and Okafor). Don't mean to give the JTIII haters fuel, but for what its worth: fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/tom-izzo-michigan-state-coaching-final-four/Some interesting names to see alongside JTIII: Barnes, Knight (skewed by the 1985 starting point), Olson, Huggins, Montgomery; with the obvious ones: Dixon, Wright, Brey, and Keady Stats on outperforming the seed in the tournament raise questions about teams that underperform during the regular season. Calipari is up there 3rd behind Izzo and Pitino, but when UK went to the Final Four in 2011 with 5 NBA draft picks did they overachieve as the 4-seed beating Ohio State and UNC in the regionals or did they underachieve by losing 6 games in the SEC and getting the 4 seed? Michigan State has put together a great run this year, but they are a 7-seed because they underachieved. They lost to Texas Southern, Nebraska, Illinois, and Minnesota, and were swept by Maryland in the regular season. Their best regular season win was at Iowa. Izzo's genius seems to work much better against teams that rarely play MSU than it does against the B1G teams that play them every year.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 30, 2015 11:57:58 GMT -5
The thing about Izzo and Pitino also to some extent is that I don't see any amazing tactical or strategic moves that are the magic ingredients in their tournament success. It seems to me to be more about their roster construction and defense-first orientation. Both always have quality starters and depth but do not have teams that are built around one-and-done stars or are overly reliant on one scorer being on fire every game. They always have several athletic bigs who are active defenders and rebounders but not lottery picks so they generally stay around for 3 or 4 years, and they have guards and wings who play solid defense and generally do not turn the ball over much. MSU and Louisville play different styles but both are defense-first teams who are always in every game so they are likely to win when they make their shots.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 27, 2015 9:53:58 GMT -5
Hayes camped out under the basket and got offensive rebounds against a small team and didn't get his put-backs blocked by smaller players. Great contribution in that game, but let's not pretend that he made any low post moves or did anything that would have been as successful against Big East competition. He played a total of 27 minutes during Big East play and scored 2 points, grabbed 5 rebounds, and committed 6 fouls and 1 turnover. Hayes career numbers in Big East play: 53 minutes, 6 points, 9 rebounds, 12 fouls.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 27, 2015 9:48:24 GMT -5
Hayes camped out under the basket and got offensive rebounds against a small team and didn't get his put-backs blocked by smaller players. Great contribution in that game, but let's not pretend that he made any low post moves or did anything that would have been as successful against Big East competition. He played a total of 27 minutes during Big East play and scored 2 points, grabbed 5 rebounds, and committed 6 fouls and 1 turnover.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 24, 2015 10:42:30 GMT -5
Georgetown's spend on basketball is now more than UNC, Texas, Michigan State, UConn, or Maryland but can it continue to spend in this manner? Is that really true, or is that a function of our Verizon Center rent being in the basketball budget and their campus arena costs being off the basketball budget?
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 23, 2015 21:05:36 GMT -5
I'm not arguing that every recruiting class is great. I just objected to the stupid statement that the 2011 class had no All Big East players when it had the BE Player of the Year who left early to be the #3 pick in the NBA draft.
Almost every program has the same issue. You have a great class and then the next two are weaker because potential recruits don't see playing time available immediately so they go somewhere else.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 23, 2015 21:00:25 GMT -5
Markel Starks: 1246 points, 300 assists, 100 steals, 201 rebounds and he really didn't play much as a freshman behind Wright, Clark, and Freeman
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 23, 2015 20:40:11 GMT -5
Porter, Whittington, Adams, Hopkins, Trawick was a great recruiting class.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 23, 2015 20:13:08 GMT -5
But it's not 1 All Big East player in 3 classes. You can't just throw Otto out of his class.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 23, 2015 19:53:38 GMT -5
Okay. If you discount the lottery pick Big East POY for leaving early then yes this class had no All Big East players.
And Kentucky had no All SEC players in the 2015 class either.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 23, 2015 16:23:27 GMT -5
Same inane palaver over and over again. JTIII has always been consistent in his philosophy: when you earn minutes, you will get them. You first earn them by working hard in practice and on your own and showing improvement; you earn more by producing in games. It is that way in most successful D-1 programs; if the staff does not see it in practice you will get garbage time minutes in games. For all of his good moments, AB has had the same holes in his game for 4 years - poor shooter, suspect handle. He has improved his finishing and his defense so he has earned dome time. No big mystery. B has holes also, especially his movement and his limited offensive abilities. The EWU game and the first half Saturday showed some hope. If he continues to work hard and improve he will get his shot next year. We all hope that happens because it would mean he has earned it. There are two reasons Bowen did not play more his first two years - Hollis Thompson Otto Porter
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 23, 2015 16:06:48 GMT -5
Agree with Yaboy. Unfortunately I kind of agree with Balla in that our "shooter" recruits haven't panned out and the rising senior and junior classes are weak. DSR is the one main exceptions as he has been very good, has improved his D, has had a steady handle when needed, and can put points on the board. I think those two classes are the ones that forced JTIII to reassess his approach to talent and the past two classes seem to be on track. Jabril is a good example of a guy who was not a "shooter" but had the athleticism and work ethic to become a very reliable shooter by his late junior and senior years. I am very excited about the future and feel like we are in a really good spot with the facilities coming online. Bypass the Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Arizona recruits and find the mix of three and four year players that can perform in March. It is what it is. Dsr is the only all BE performer in those 3 classes. That means 1 top 20 BE player in 3 years basically. Otto Porter.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 23, 2015 16:04:56 GMT -5
Last year the ACC had 6 teams in the tournament and only UVA made the Sweet 16 where they lost to Michigan State. Duke lost to Mercer. Syracuse lost to Dayton. Louisville is in now and Maryland is not. Notre Dame is up but Pitt is down and Syracuse is busted. The league as a whole wasn't really better this year but the NCAA tournament results are much better.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 22, 2015 22:13:10 GMT -5
If he wants a shot at the NBA, it will have to be as a guard so he needs to work on guard skills - ball handling, jump shooting, and passing off the dribble.
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