hoyaboya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,389
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Post by hoyaboya on Jan 6, 2023 11:44:50 GMT -5
And a NEW "new record" in KenPom: down to 220 after Thursday night's games, just ahead of "all hat, but also undefeated 3-0/tied for first in its conference" Stetson. Saturday's foe, Marquette, is #17. The biggest nightmare for a team like Marquette is a loss to us is a disaster to their NET and other ranking services... Correct - a home loss to us would be devastating from an NCAA Tournament seeding standpoint. Marquette would probably still get in assuming they stay close to the track they're on, but you can't lose a Quad 4 home game to one of the 4 worst high major teams and expect to be much more than a 7 or 8 seed.
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hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,212
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Post by hoyarooter on Jan 6, 2023 20:27:10 GMT -5
The biggest nightmare for a team like Marquette is a loss to us is a disaster to their NET and other ranking services... Correct - a home loss to us would be devastating from an NCAA Tournament seeding standpoint. Marquette would probably still get in assuming they stay close to the track they're on, but you can't lose a Quad 4 home game to one of the 4 worst high major teams and expect to be much more than a 7 or 8 seed. I would never bet against the Hoyas, but laying the points in this game looks like a lock.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 7, 2023 17:23:37 GMT -5
So, after the Marquette loss, Georgetown is now ranked 223 on KenPom, and the defense falls to 284. We are getting close to the point where it is going to be hard to go much further down since we are so bad, but I thought that was true a few games ago, and yet, we still continue to decline.
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1427hoya
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 351
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Post by 1427hoya on Jan 7, 2023 18:12:04 GMT -5
So, after the Marquette loss, Georgetown is now ranked 223 on KenPom, and the defense falls to 284. We are getting close to the point where it is going to be hard to go much further down since we are so bad, but I thought that was true a few games ago, and yet, we still continue to decline. Never underestimate Pat
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hoyajmw
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,031
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Post by hoyajmw on Jan 8, 2023 9:06:20 GMT -5
So, after Saturday’s other games completed Hoyas fall to #225 in KenPom and 249 in NET (Seton Hall 60 and 88, respectively). And at 26 straight conference losses Hoyas have all alone record for consecutive losses in the Big East,, breaking what had been a tie at 25 with DePaul 09-11 if one includes BET games — the “regular season games” record got all the pub but I think the “including BET” even more meaningful in this context. Next up, near as I can find, is the record by any high level D1 team of consecutive conference losses, the 29 Northwestern had over the 90-92 three seasons. The home game against DePaul on Jan 24 could be the record breaker…And for some more record breaking stats, at an average in conference loss margin of now 19.6, Hoyas are currently besting (“worsting”?) by about a point the objectively worst team in Big East history, the 1994-95 0-18 Miami team, that averaged losing by about 18.5 PPG.
Some more recent context in case anyone was wondering, the godawful BC team that went 0-18 in ‘15-16 in the ACC ultimately lost only 19 straight even if one includes the loss in the ACC tournament the year before (to Carolina), as they won the last and first regular season games the surrounding seasons…
And last (promise — for now anyway) some more context as to why I rather obsess on the history: I think it is important to understand that, despite what any individual explanation for a loss or series of losses may be (the latest of course is injuries), in the long run of college hoops, where a lot of coaches have had to struggle through a lot of issues, this run is simply (at the very least close to) unprecedented. “You are what your record says you are” I think the football coach line was…
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 8, 2023 11:47:43 GMT -5
And last (promise — for now anyway) some more context as to why I rather obsess on the history: I think it is important to understand that, despite what any individual explanation for a loss or series of losses may be (the latest of course is injuries), in the long run of college hoops, where a lot of coaches have had to struggle through a lot of issues, this run is simply (at the very least close to) unprecedented. “You are what your record says you are” I think the football coach line was… Good points. I would add that part of the reason it is unprecedented is that because few coaches who run into this trouble survive a season like Ewing did last year, not to mention the statistical improbability of not winning games simply be chance. I truly feel awful for the players, especially the few who have suffered through both seasons. It has to be massively demoralizing, and I am sure not at all what they were sold on to come to Georgetown (though one could argue the guys who came in this year were on notice).
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CTHoya08
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Bring back Izzo!
Posts: 2,861
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Post by CTHoya08 on Jan 8, 2023 11:53:22 GMT -5
What percentage is KenPom placing on going winless? Is it up from 5.5% yet?
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hoya9797
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,205
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Post by hoya9797 on Jan 8, 2023 12:39:57 GMT -5
What percentage is KenPom placing on going winless? Is it up from 5.5% yet? 10.9% The cumulative probabilities suggest 2 wins but that seems optimistic given how much worse it gets day after day.
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hoyajmw
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,031
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Post by hoyajmw on Jan 8, 2023 17:39:58 GMT -5
Now up to 221 on KenPom following 20 of 24 Sunday games [insert comment here about how much better we do when not playing].
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hoya9797
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,205
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Post by hoya9797 on Jan 10, 2023 23:07:24 GMT -5
There are only a couple records left for Pat Ewing to set in his illustrious career and is lowest KenPom ranking ever by a Big East team. St John’s in 2016 touched twice touched #254 both times after losing to Villanova - first to go 0-10 in conference and again to go 0-13. They finished the year at #236 which is the lowest finishing point in Big East history, other record that Ewing seems likely to hold before he’s done.
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hoyajmw
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,031
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Post by hoyajmw on Jan 10, 2023 23:58:12 GMT -5
Down to KenPom 230 with some games left to play Tuesday…
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EtomicB
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 14,911
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Post by EtomicB on Jan 11, 2023 0:01:30 GMT -5
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hoyajmw
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,031
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Post by hoyajmw on Jan 11, 2023 9:50:28 GMT -5
I see that our expert moderator has set this link up so it automatically reflects where Hoyas are on KenPom, and indeed we dropped to 231 after last night’s games were completed, behind such teams as UMBC and Coastal Carolina. Also several spots below Austin Peay, which (geezer humor alert) had one of the great cheers of all time back when. They had a star gunner named Fly Williams and the cheer was “Fly is open. Let’s go Peay.” Thank you thank you…Here all week…
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hoyaboya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,389
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Post by hoyaboya on Jan 11, 2023 10:29:20 GMT -5
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 11, 2023 10:46:12 GMT -5
I see that our expert moderator has set this link up so it automatically reflects where Hoyas are on KenPom hoyaboya, who started the thread updates it; the moderators have nothing to do with it. Speaking of Louisville, I knew they were bad, but didn't realize HOW bad until I looked on KenPom. They have to have the worst major conference offense ever (over 300). For anybody following, what is going on? Were they truly left with nothing by Mack, or is Kenny Payne really that bad?
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Highsmith
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,490
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Post by Highsmith on Jan 11, 2023 17:52:55 GMT -5
They were a point away from beating Syracuse too....wonder if that had happened if we would have been below them? (Louisville, I mean)
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hoyajmw
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,031
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Post by hoyajmw on Jan 12, 2023 8:54:16 GMT -5
Up to #228 after Wednesday night games!
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Post by augustusfinknottle on Jan 12, 2023 8:57:32 GMT -5
Sweet!
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SSHoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
Posts: 18,315
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Post by SSHoya on Jan 12, 2023 9:01:02 GMT -5
Instead of "Onward and Upwards" we are "Backwards and Downwards!" Huzzah!!
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Highsmith
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,490
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Post by Highsmith on Jan 13, 2023 18:33:43 GMT -5
Up to #228 after Wednesday night games! Add another year to the extension!
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