Georgetown - Xavier 3/2/21 Discussion

[DanMcQ]

More ball movement again please.

[RockawayHoya]

Xavier always seems to be the physical bellwether for this team, and while they're probably not as imposing as the Tyrique Jones / Naji Marshall teams of the past few seasons, we need to match their intensity and sustain it from the opening tip. Turning the ball over 4-5 times and not coming out of the gate ready to play the first 5 minutes of the game isn't going to cut it against this team. This will also be another game where we are really going to need a sizable rebounding advantage to neutralize what we're likely to give up in turnovers. Xavier is excellent at protecting the ball (25th nationally) and keeping opponents off the FT line (8th nationally), so we are going to have to keep it reasonably close in FGA to win this.

Expecting Xavier to challenge Q defensively early and often in this one. With an opposing mobile 5 that has range who also doesn't mind to bang down low, Q's discipline, concentration and willingness to be physical are going to go a long way in determining if we can get enough stops. With Johnson out, they're not a good 3 point shooting team overall, so the focus should be on protecting the paint. Bigs need to stay on the floor and contest without fouling.

Tandy, much like Cale for SHU, has been a guy that has killed us in the past because we've not paid attention to what should be on our scouting report. We've done a better job of locking down perimeter shooters as of late, but can't lose focus and help off of Tandy here.

[wponds]

Wouldn't be surprised if Q started on Jason Carter, who's a little taller than Freemantle and can't shoot. Then have either Pickett or Bile on Freemantle and the other on Colby Jones.

They lost Nate Johnson for the year and he's one of the best 3 pt shooters in the nation. But they still have Kunkle, Wilcher (freshman), and Tandy (who's played less this year, but still a threat if he gets hot), so can't let them get loose either

[hoyaguy]

I think we have a decent shot especially with Johnson out, as long as one of their players does not have a career high night lol so just hope we keep up intensity all 40 min

[Nevada Hoya]

Both Xavier and Creighton each had only 3 TOs in the first half of their game yesterday, so please protect the ball.

[blueandgray]

According to a few people on other threads...we have no chance at winning this game. Why show up?

[bigelephant]

Feb 28, 2021 15:08:28 GMT -5 blueandgray said:

According to a few people on other threads...we have no chance at winning this game. Why show up?

Because we can win if we play smart, hustle and keep T/O to a minimum.

[michaelgrahmstylie]

We can play with any team in the country! Our best days are ahead of us. Mark my word.

[daveg023]

Over the last 4-5 years, if I’m not mistaken we have fewer wins against Xavier than any other BE team (even Villanova). I think we only have 1 win over them in the last 8 or so.

Of the two games left this one feels more winnable, but certainly far from easy. It feels like we should be able to score on them much easier than Uconn but like most of our games it will come down to which team is better from 3.

[rhw485]

I've been looking forward to seeing this Xavier team, mainly because Travis Steele made a decision in the offseason to completely change their approach and embrace the 5 out type offense and add shooting wherever he could on the court.  He looked at an offense built on Tyrique Jones and Naji Marshall and was like this simply won't work.  They're almost like an experiment and a referendum on the changing nature of college hoops.  That's certainly dramatic but if you look at their numbers year over year it's kinda fascinating.

• Last year they attempted a below avg amount of 3s (34.7% of shots) and made a below average amount ( 31.2%).  This year those numbers are 38% of total shots and they're making 33.5%.  
• What did they trade to do that?  Their offensive rebounding has cratered.  This is not the Xavier team that bullies you on the boards anymore, 224th in O- rebounding percentage.  But they also don't turn the ball over at all now, with more perimeter type skill players on the court they've given away freebies  
• Net result: their offensive efficiency has jumped from 99th to 45th
• To steal RockawayHoya point from different thread, it's basically trading inefficient Naji Marshall usage for more efficient Zach Freemantle usage.  I agree with wponds that we should hide Q on Carter and put Pickett on Freemantle.  Although Carter only played 22 min vs. Creighton, not sure if it was foul trouble or a sign his 15% 3 point % can't play anymore.  He was 31% last year, hasn't hit a 3 in 2021, which we all know what that means for his performance vs. us tomorrow
• In exchange for these offensive improvements, their defense is much worse year over year.  They're 58th in country vs. being a top 20 defense nationally last year.  
• And the net result of all that fun is basically a team that is exactly where last years squad was, squarely on the bubble with a mid 40s computer profile per Bart Torvik
• Individual scouting assignments will be crucial here.  Creighton basically refused to guard Odom on the perimeter, Ballock stood in the paint and dared him to shoot (he's 1-9 on year from deep but very explosive athlete).  But if you get confused and leave Tandy open we'll get abused.
• And while the schedule gods haven't done us any favors with the games cancelled, it's a plus that our one Xavier game is at home given they have fans in the stands at their games

Honestly I was kinda amazed they were on the bubble going into the weekend.  That Oklahoma win in December, before Oklahoma really got going, was doing a LOT of heavy lifting on their resume.  The win over Creighton certainly gives them breathing room and a better argument.

If you want a preview of what type of offense we'll see Xavier run, they're prominently featured in this video.  Lets see if we can make them pay for going small.

[professorhoya]

Are they still Pack Line defense

[guru]

Mar 1, 2021 9:11:53 GMT -5 rhw485 said:

I've been looking forward to seeing this Xavier team, mainly because Travis Steele made a decision in the offseason to completely change their approach and embrace the 5 out type offense and add shooting wherever he could on the court.  He looked at an offense built on Tyrique Jones and Naji Marshall and was like this simply won't work.  They're almost like an experiment and a referendum on the changing nature of college hoops.  That's certainly dramatic but if you look at their numbers year over year it's kinda fascinating.

• Last year they attempted a below avg amount of 3s (34.7% of shots) and made a below average amount ( 31.2%).  This year those numbers are 38% of total shots and they're making 33.5%.  
• What did they trade to do that?  Their offensive rebounding has cratered.  This is not the Xavier team that bullies you on the boards anymore, 224th in O- rebounding percentage.  But they also don't turn the ball over at all now, with more perimeter type skill players on the court they've given away freebies  
• Net result: their offensive efficiency has jumped from 99th to 45th
• To steal RockawayHoya point from different thread, it's basically trading inefficient Naji Marshall usage for more efficient Zach Freemantle usage.  I agree with wponds that we should hide Q on Carter and put Pickett on Freemantle.  Although Carter only played 22 min vs. Creighton, not sure if it was foul trouble or a sign his 15% 3 point % can't play anymore.  He was 31% last year, hasn't hit a 3 in 2021, which we all know what that means for his performance vs. us tomorrow
• In exchange for these offensive improvements, their defense is much worse year over year.  They're 58th in country vs. being a top 20 defense nationally last year.  
• And the net result of all that fun is basically a team that is exactly where last years squad was, squarely on the bubble with a mid 40s computer profile per Bart Torvik
• Individual scouting assignments will be crucial here.  Creighton basically refused to guard Odom on the perimeter, Ballock stood in the paint and dared him to shoot (he's 1-9 on year from deep but very explosive athlete).  But if you get confused and leave Tandy open we'll get abused.
• And while the schedule gods haven't done us any favors with the games cancelled, it's a plus that our one Xavier game is at home given they have fans in the stands at their games

Honestly I was kinda amazed they were on the bubble going into the weekend.  That Oklahoma win in December, before Oklahoma really got going, was doing a LOT of heavy lifting on their resume.  The win over Creighton certainly gives them breathing room and a better argument.

If you want a preview of what type of offense we'll see Xavier run, they're prominently featured in this video.  Lets see if we can make them pay for going small.

This is a very informative post, the likes of which seem to be few and far between on the board these days. Keep 'em coming - thanks!

[hoyalove4ever]

We can win this one, and that would be a nice accomplishment at this point. GO HOYAS!

[ColumbiaHeightsHoya]

We've gotta beat these guys. Mainly because we haven't recently and they are kind of punks. Last year they threw two bigs at us an thrashed us with good hi/low passing. A good step would be no more than 10 turnovers and any turnovers we do get be due to aggressive/attacking versus throwing it to the wrong team or to the refs (I am looking at you Donald Carey). Shoot it well and we have a good shot.

[rhw485]

Mar 1, 2021 9:18:02 GMT -5 professorhoya said:

Are they still Pack Line defense

Good question, I'm not 100% sure haven't watched the defense that closely was more interested in the offense.  Part of the benefit of being smaller is you can switch screens more, which isn't really a part of the pack line principles but could be incorporated.  Will be watching on Tuesday to see whether they've stuck with it.

[Deleted]

If they use that five out, we should just play zone d. Playing man will get you picked a lot leaving guys open. If they play different zones, you don't have to worry about people getting picked or back cuts. Also, Blair and Harris should force the ball out of the point guard's hands before they reach half court. Make someone else make decisions in the offense. We need Pickett and Bile crashing the boards both on offense and defense. We have to shut Freemantle out of getting many rebounds.

[DanMcQ]

Mar 1, 2021 9:59:21 GMT -5 ColumbiaHeightsHoya said:

We've gotta beat these guys. Mainly because we haven't recently and they are kind of punks. Last year they threw two bigs at us an thrashed us with good hi/low passing. A good step would be no more than 10 turnovers and any turnovers we do get be due to aggressive/attacking versus throwing it to the wrong team or to the refs (I am looking at you Donald Carey). Shoot it well and we have a good shot.

I didn't watch closely enough to count for sure but there were at least a handful of TOs with passes to nowhere where the guy the pass was going to either cut when the passer didn't expect him to or the reverse. Bile, Pickett and I think Sibley all did this although I remember at least 2 from Bile.

[Deleted]

Anybody has any idea what we must do to defeat this team cause I sho' in the hell don't know? All I know is that we have to keep Freemantle off the boards. What else must we do to beat this team y'all?

[mdtd]

The post from rhw485 explains all of my thoughts much better than I could. That post says a lot about this game. It's really well done.

Really the only thing I have to add is that is I think Scruggs is our worst matchup. He's the engine to their team and I don't know how well we match up with him. I think we'll start with Bile on him and go from there. It wouldn't shock me to see Dante on him also, to give him someone faster on the perimeter, but I think he can consistently beat either Carey or Berger. I think if we limit his ability to get inside, their offense will struggle to generate shots. Especially because if Tandy is on the floor, he's not great defensively and he will shoot it every time he touches it, at least from the couple Xavier games I've seen. This could give us more fastbreak opportunities and make their life on offense much more difficult. If Scruggs gets it going though, I think it's going to be tough to keep up with them.

I think Blair on Colby Jones works (really just tell him don't leave your man whether it's Kunkel, Jones, Tandy, etc.), throw Dante on Odom, and let him torment their slashers. I also think the Q on Carter approach is the best. He hasn't shot it well, he looks really tentative and I think Q could beat up their guys inside if Carter doesn't force him outside. This leaves Pickett on Freemantle which is probably our best option. If Q or whoever is on Odom can help inside, I think that helps us a ton too.

I think we can take this game. It's a very good spot for us to end our season strong. Xavier is coming off of a big win and has not been great on the road. I think we can take them.

[RockawayHoya]

Mar 1, 2021 13:23:28 GMT -5 mdtd said:

The post from rhw485 explains all of my thoughts much better than I could. That post says a lot about this game. It's really well done.

Really the only thing I have to add is that is I think Scruggs is our worst matchup. He's the engine to their team and I don't know how well we match up with him. I think we'll start with Bile on him and go from there. It wouldn't shock me to see Dante on him also, to give him someone faster on the perimeter, but I think he can consistently beat either Carey or Berger. I think if we limit his ability to get inside, their offense will struggle to generate shots. Especially because if Tandy is on the floor, he's not great defensively and he will shoot it every time he touches it, at least from the couple Xavier games I've seen. This could give us more fastbreak opportunities and make their life on offense much more difficult. If Scruggs gets it going though, I think it's going to be tough to keep up with them.

I think Blair on Colby Jones works (really just tell him don't leave your man whether it's Kunkel, Jones, Tandy, etc.), throw Dante on Odom, and let him torment their slashers. I also think the Q on Carter approach is the best. He hasn't shot it well, he looks really tentative and I think Q could beat up their guys inside if Carter doesn't force him outside. This leaves Pickett on Freemantle which is probably our best option. If Q or whoever is on Odom can help inside, I think that helps us a ton too.

I think we can take this game. It's a very good spot for us to end our season strong. Xavier is coming off of a big win and has not been great on the road. I think we can take them.

This is easily the freshest Blair will be for a March game since 2019, so hoping for a big outing out of him. If he shoots a decently high percentage and makes Scruggs work hard on the defensive end, I like our chances.