dchoya72
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Post by dchoya72 on Mar 1, 2021 18:27:02 GMT -5
I've been looking forward to seeing this Xavier team, mainly because Travis Steele made a decision in the offseason to completely change their approach and embrace the 5 out type offense and add shooting wherever he could on the court. He looked at an offense built on Tyrique Jones and Naji Marshall and was like this simply won't work. They're almost like an experiment and a referendum on the changing nature of college hoops. That's certainly dramatic but if you look at their numbers year over year it's kinda fascinating. - Last year they attempted a below avg amount of 3s (34.7% of shots) and made a below average amount ( 31.2%). This year those numbers are 38% of total shots and they're making 33.5%.
- What did they trade to do that? Their offensive rebounding has cratered. This is not the Xavier team that bullies you on the boards anymore, 224th in O- rebounding percentage. But they also don't turn the ball over at all now, with more perimeter type skill players on the court they've given away freebies
- Net result: their offensive efficiency has jumped from 99th to 45th
- To steal RockawayHoya point from different thread, it's basically trading inefficient Naji Marshall usage for more efficient Zach Freemantle usage. I agree with wponds that we should hide Q on Carter and put Pickett on Freemantle. Although Carter only played 22 min vs. Creighton, not sure if it was foul trouble or a sign his 15% 3 point % can't play anymore. He was 31% last year, hasn't hit a 3 in 2021, which we all know what that means for his performance vs. us tomorrow
- In exchange for these offensive improvements, their defense is much worse year over year. They're 58th in country vs. being a top 20 defense nationally last year.
- And the net result of all that fun is basically a team that is exactly where last years squad was, squarely on the bubble with a mid 40s computer profile per Bart Torvik
- Individual scouting assignments will be crucial here. Creighton basically refused to guard Odom on the perimeter, Ballock stood in the paint and dared him to shoot (he's 1-9 on year from deep but very explosive athlete). But if you get confused and leave Tandy open we'll get abused.
- And while the schedule gods haven't done us any favors with the games cancelled, it's a plus that our one Xavier game is at home given they have fans in the stands at their games
Honestly I was kinda amazed they were on the bubble going into the weekend. That Oklahoma win in December, before Oklahoma really got going, was doing a LOT of heavy lifting on their resume. The win over Creighton certainly gives them breathing room and a better argument.
If you want a preview of what type of offense we'll see Xavier run, they're prominently featured in this video. Lets see if we can make them pay for going small.
This is a very informative post, the likes of which seem to be few and far between on the board these days. Keep 'em coming - thanks! Nice tutorial!! Thanks. Maybe JTIII warms ahead of the curve, but didn't have the horses. That's just my opinion. This was informative.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 1, 2021 19:50:59 GMT -5
ESPN is showing the line as EVEN. I’d be surprised if that holds up.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 1, 2021 20:39:22 GMT -5
This is a very informative post, the likes of which seem to be few and far between on the board these days. Keep 'em coming - thanks! Nice tutorial!! Thanks. Maybe JTIII warms ahead of the curve, but didn't have the horses. That's just my opinion. This was informative. JTIII went to a Final Four. He made some key recruiting mistakes as he went, and when the defensive changes came in, he couldn't adapt. But the offensive side was insanely good for much of his early days. Honestly, Ewing's offense is not exactly radical, but 1 in, 4 out does also create a lot of space for us. We get a lot of open looks despite not being that talented.
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dense
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Post by dense on Mar 2, 2021 5:47:58 GMT -5
Nice tutorial!! Thanks. Maybe JTIII warms ahead of the curve, but didn't have the horses. That's just my opinion. This was informative. JTIII went to a Final Four. He made some key recruiting mistakes as he went, and when the defensive changes came in, he couldn't adapt. But the offensive side was insanely good for much of his early days. Honestly, Ewing's offense is not exactly radical, but 1 in, 4 out does also create a lot of space for us. We get a lot of open looks despite not being that talented. Yeah most the sets we run are to get the ball to a shooter and if he doesn't take the shot to look in the post. We run that staggered double at the top for Blair often then have a wing to pass to while the other screener screens across for Wahab. We run that alot
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Mar 2, 2021 7:25:42 GMT -5
When you have a team with ~3 NBA or McDAA players, your offense typically runs well.
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bostonfan
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Post by bostonfan on Mar 2, 2021 8:18:09 GMT -5
Hope the team plays well and that Pickett and Blair both have great nights on senior night. It has not been the easiest path for either of them, but they both stuck it out and are going to have 4 year careers at Georgetown and then leave with a diploma from Georgetown. It really stinks that no fans can be there for tonight for those two guys, but hopefully the program does something special for them to make it memorable.
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Post by HometownHoya on Mar 2, 2021 11:24:00 GMT -5
GAMEDAY!!!
Playing with house money again. No one expects us to beat X but if we do, it will go a long way to making this a more successful season. I'm hoping that after X's win against Creighton, they will come into DC over confident. Need be ready to bang and get physical. Approach this like the UConn game, not the DePaul game. Fight for every loose ball, get every REBOUND, and box out. Pass the ball crisply and keep the turnovers low. If we can get Pickett going early, then I'm confident we can get the W. Hope Jahvon is rested up and ready to lead his team. The guys should be starting to feel the BET coming and need to be at the top of their game.
Go Hoyas!
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blueandgray
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Post by blueandgray on Mar 2, 2021 13:39:15 GMT -5
We win this and I believe we pretty much lock up our seeding in the BET.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 2, 2021 15:22:15 GMT -5
We win this and I believe we pretty much lock up our seeding in the BET. Win pretty much assures we get 7th.
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SSHoya
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"Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
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Post by SSHoya on Mar 2, 2021 16:03:04 GMT -5
Xavier -2.5
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hoyaboya
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Post by hoyaboya on Mar 2, 2021 16:26:49 GMT -5
GAMEDAY!!! Playing with house money again. No one expects us to beat X but if we do, it will go a long way to making this a more successful season. I'm hoping that after X's win against Creighton, they will come into DC over confident. Need be ready to bang and get physical. Approach this like the UConn game, not the DePaul game. Fight for every loose ball, get every REBOUND, and box out. Pass the ball crisply and keep the turnovers low. If we can get Pickett going early, then I'm confident we can get the W. Hope Jahvon is rested up and ready to lead his team. The guys should be starting to feel the BET coming and need to be at the top of their game. Go Hoyas! Big difference between this and the DePaul game is that DePaul had nothing to play for and was led by a lame duck coach. Xavier is fighting for an NCAA Tournament bid and will be very motivated tonight.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 2, 2021 16:37:56 GMT -5
GAMEDAY!!! Playing with house money again. No one expects us to beat X but if we do, it will go a long way to making this a more successful season. I'm hoping that after X's win against Creighton, they will come into DC over confident. Need be ready to bang and get physical. Approach this like the UConn game, not the DePaul game. Fight for every loose ball, get every REBOUND, and box out. Pass the ball crisply and keep the turnovers low. If we can get Pickett going early, then I'm confident we can get the W. Hope Jahvon is rested up and ready to lead his team. The guys should be starting to feel the BET coming and need to be at the top of their game. Go Hoyas! Big difference between this and the DePaul game is that DePaul had nothing to play for and was led by a lame duck coach. Xavier is fighting for an NCAA Tournament bid and will be very motivated tonight. The other difference is that Xavier is a significantly better basketball team. DePaul is 131 on KenPom. Xavier is 55. It's not even close.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 2, 2021 16:51:13 GMT -5
GAMEDAY!!! Playing with house money again. No one expects us to beat X but if we do, it will go a long way to making this a more successful season. I'm hoping that after X's win against Creighton, they will come into DC over confident. Need be ready to bang and get physical. Approach this like the UConn game, not the DePaul game. Fight for every loose ball, get every REBOUND, and box out. Pass the ball crisply and keep the turnovers low. If we can get Pickett going early, then I'm confident we can get the W. Hope Jahvon is rested up and ready to lead his team. The guys should be starting to feel the BET coming and need to be at the top of their game. Go Hoyas! Big difference between this and the DePaul game is that DePaul had nothing to play for and was led by a lame duck coach. Xavier is fighting for an NCAA Tournament bid and will be very motivated tonight. Agree, the level of intensity will probably look something like the UConn game, another opponent that was squarely on the bubble and fighting hard to avoid a bad loss.
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seaweed
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Post by seaweed on Mar 2, 2021 17:15:29 GMT -5
Big difference between this and the DePaul game is that DePaul had nothing to play for and was led by a lame duck coach. Xavier is fighting for an NCAA Tournament bid and will be very motivated tonight. The other difference is that Xavier is a significantly better basketball team. DePaul is 131 on KenPom. Xavier is 55. It's not even close. Rankings based on playing with Nate Johnson. Big loss for X
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bostonfan
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Post by bostonfan on Mar 2, 2021 17:18:12 GMT -5
Big difference between this and the DePaul game is that DePaul had nothing to play for and was led by a lame duck coach. Xavier is fighting for an NCAA Tournament bid and will be very motivated tonight. Agree, the level of intensity will probably look something like the UConn game, another opponent that was squarely on the bubble and fighting hard to avoid a bad loss. I think that Xavier and UConn is a good comp in some ways. Both are aggressive, physical teams that try to outwork their opponents. I think UConn has more size in the front court which makes them a very good rebounding team. Xavier does not have the height/length up front, but does have bigger guards and does go to the offensive glass hard and pursues every loose ball. The Hoyas need to be much better on those 50/50 balls to win this game. Overall I think UConn is a more talented team than Xavier, but there is no doubt that Xavier is much better than DePaul. Freemantle is a tough matchup as he is too quick/mobile for Q on the perimeter and might be too good in the post for Jamorko. If the Hoyas can find a way to limit him, this should be a very close game. Scruggs is a tough matchup at the point, as he is much bigger and stronger than Dante and might be too quick for Blair. He is not a bad 3 point shooter but I think you need to force him to take contested 3's as opposed to letting him get into the lane where he can score and distribute very well. On offense Xavier will struggle to cover Q in the post without a double team, so this is going to be another test to see if Q is learning how to find the open shooter when he gets doubled. He should be expecting the double tonight and be ready to move the ball when it comes. The Hoyas have shown growth in the last month but will need to continue to show that improvement tonight against a good Xavier team. It won't be an easy game, but it is a game they should be very competitive, especially at home.
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Post by wponds on Mar 2, 2021 17:18:45 GMT -5
Big difference between this and the DePaul game is that DePaul had nothing to play for and was led by a lame duck coach. Xavier is fighting for an NCAA Tournament bid and will be very motivated tonight. Agree, the level of intensity will probably look something like the UConn game, another opponent that was squarely on the bubble and fighting hard to avoid a bad loss. Agree, Xavier came out very intense in their last game against Creighton (granted that was a home game for them and they have almost a thousand fans at games). If they come with that kind of chip on their shoulder, it'll be tough. But I guess we won't really know until game time. The few games they played before that, they didn't look nearly as sharp.
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Post by wponds on Mar 2, 2021 17:20:16 GMT -5
Also, FWIW: Xavier posted this statistical comparison of the teams. KenPom defensive ratings aren't too far off from one another (shown in the top right image)
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Post by professorhoya on Mar 2, 2021 17:42:40 GMT -5
Also, FWIW: Xavier posted this statistical comparison of the teams. KenPom defensive ratings aren't too far off from one another (shown in the top right image) The uniform win loss records is nice
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 2, 2021 18:34:12 GMT -5
One play at a time. One shot, one pass, one rebound, one stop.
We can do this Hoyas.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Mar 2, 2021 18:52:26 GMT -5
Listed starters don't always mean much for the Hoyas but have to think Jahvon is not playing.
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