seaweed
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,670
|
Post by seaweed on Dec 10, 2019 13:48:30 GMT -5
DC has enough problems with the Tangerine Tyrant - let's send the "new black" packing just like him
|
|
|
Post by HoyaRejuveNation85 on Dec 10, 2019 17:43:32 GMT -5
Hoping for a good student turnout to counter the orange infestation sure to appear at Cap One. I'm going to the game, but BOTH of my sons have exams DURING the game. The registrar (or whoever creates the exam schedule) should be suspended w/o pay. Bummer that they will miss the game. I'm looking for a reprise of the beating we threw them at the Booth in their last year as members of the conference (thanks, Otto)!
|
|
HoyaDr
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 616
|
Post by HoyaDr on Dec 10, 2019 18:05:00 GMT -5
Will be at the game with many classmates. I don't remember taking an exam on Saturday during a Hoya basketball game in undergrad but it's been 10 years. Still hopefully will be a good crowd. Last Syracuse game I went to was also the Otto game, that was very very memorable.
|
|
jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,040
|
Post by jwp91 on Dec 10, 2019 19:21:02 GMT -5
So here is a summary of my statistical research about Syracuse based on KenPom, Hoopslens and Synergy.
It many ways it looks like a typical Syracuse team.
Syracuse’s pace averages 68.3 possessions. This is less than our average pace of 73.3.
(Note that Leblanc was one of our most effective players in transition season to date along with Pickett and Yurtseven. The rest of the team rates as ‘below average’ or ‘poor’ based on Synergy. Without Leblanc, it might make sense to slow the pace a bit.)
SU gives up offensive rebounds, but they are superior at blocks and steals. Their 3 point defense is surprisingly good given their 2-3 zone (28.2%) Offensively, they live based on the 3 (34.1% success rate and 36.5% of shot attempted) and shoot free throws poorly (69.3%)
SU is exceptional in transition - 1.21 PPP in 20% of possesions and is only fair in overall half cour at .846 PPP. They are 92% percentile in out-of-bound from the end zone plays so we need to avoid giving up easy plays. There are 4 players who play at least 45% of minutes and have a usage rate over 20%
Elijah Hughes (6’6”) is by far the best player on the team from a statistical perspective. He plays 91% minutes, has a 118 ORtg, and makes 3s at a rate of .438. He excels at the 3 point line and the free-throw line. His weakness is 2 pt jump shots. Hughes is excellent as a spot up 3 point shooter and in transition.
Buddy Boeheim (6’6”) plays 80% of minutes at a 102 Ortg. He makes 3s at 36.5% and uses 22% of possessions. Buddy is very good in transition and off screens. He is average at spot-up shooting. If he hurts us, it will probably be from behind the line.
Joseph Girard (6’1”) is the freshman PG and is one of the few high school players who was a more prolific scorer than Mac in high school. For reference, Mac scored 2,801 in high school and Girard scored 4,763 starting when he was in 8th grade. He averaged 50 points a game as a high school junior. He is shooting 31% from deep. Synergy rates him the 89th percentile as a ball-handler for PNR. He is also good in transition and from hand-offs. Hooplens indicates that he does most of his damage (compared to a median PG )from the free-throw line in which he is 23-24.
Quincy Guerier (6’7”) plays 47% of possessions with an 82 Ortg. He is a high usage player with 23.3% of possessions. He won’t start but he will play with both of the bigs who do. He is best at the rim not in transition and does some damage from the free throw line. He is a horrible 3 point shooter so give him every shot that he wants from there (2-15).
Starting line-up is expected to be Hughes, Boeheim, Girard along with two bigs - 6’10” Dolezaj and Sidibe. Dolezaj and Sidibe will take less than 16% of possessions but play 60%+ minutes.
Things that will help the Hoyas win: Contain Hughes from deep Avoid allowing Syracuse to play in transition Don’t get distracted with a scoring contest between Mac and Girard.
|
|
hoyaduck
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Hoya Saxa
Posts: 1,447
|
Post by hoyaduck on Dec 10, 2019 19:36:37 GMT -5
Really hoping the students show up for this game
|
|
|
Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 10, 2019 19:48:09 GMT -5
Hoping for a good student turnout to counter the orange infestation sure to appear at Cap One. I'm going to the game, but BOTH of my sons have exams DURING the game. The registrar (or whoever creates the exam schedule) should be suspended w/o pay. Bummer that they will miss the game. I'm looking for a reprise of the beating we threw them at the Booth in their last year as members of the conference (thanks, Otto)! I always thought it was criminal that they had exams on a weekend period let alone during a basketball game let alone against cuse!
|
|
|
Post by RockawayHoya on Dec 10, 2019 21:19:03 GMT -5
The next test for this team will he playing a close game in the final minutes of the 2nd half. For better or worse, James ball handling and FT shooting were big assets that will be tough to replace. Given the last two Syracuse endings, I expect we’ll be in a similar position late. Allen at least showed last Wednesday that he was capable in that role to close out the game. Mac is also shooting 94% FT this year. The ball-handling vs. pressure might be suspect, but he's another guy I'd feel comfortable having at the line in crunch time.
|
|
blueandgray
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,762
|
Post by blueandgray on Dec 11, 2019 0:52:41 GMT -5
So here is a summary of my statistical research about Syracuse based on KenPom, Hoopslens and Synergy. It many ways it looks like a typical Syracuse team. Syracuse’s pace averages 68.3 possessions. This is less than our average pace of 73.3. (Note that Leblanc was one of our most effective players in transition season to date along with Pickett and Yurtseven. The rest of the team rates as ‘below average’ or ‘poor’ based on Synergy. Without Leblanc, it might make sense to slow the pace a bit.) SU gives up offensive rebounds, but they are superior at blocks and steals. Their 3 point defense is surprisingly good given their 2-3 zone (28.2%) Offensively, they live based on the 3 (34.1% success rate and 36.5% of shot attempted) and shoot free throws poorly (69.3%) SU is exceptional in transition - 1.21 PPP in 20% of possesions and is only fair in overall half cour at .846 PPP. They are 92% percentile in out-of-bound from the end zone plays so we need to avoid giving up easy plays. There are 4 players who play at least 45% of minutes and have a usage rate over 20% Elijah Hughes (6’6”) is by far the best player on the team from a statistical perspective. He plays 91% minutes, has a 118 ORtg, and makes 3s at a rate of .438. He excels at the 3 point line and the free-throw line. His weakness is 2 pt jump shots. Hughes is excellent as a spot up 3 point shooter and in transition. Buddy Boeheim (6’6”) plays 80% of minutes at a 102 Ortg. He makes 3s at 36.5% and uses 22% of possessions. Buddy is very good in transition and off screens. He is average at spot-up shooting. If he hurts us, it will probably be from behind the line. Joseph Girard (6’1”) is the freshman PG and is one of the few high school players who was a more prolific scorer than Mac in high school. For reference, Mac scored 2,801 in high school and Girard scored 4,763 starting when he was in 8th grade. He averaged 50 points a game as a high school junior. He is shooting 31% from deep. Synergy rates him the 89th percentile as a ball-handler for PNR. He is also good in transition and from hand-offs. Hooplens indicates that he does most of his damage (compared to a median PG )from the free-throw line in which he is 23-24. Quincy Guerier (6’7”) plays 47% of possessions with an 82 Ortg. He is a high usage player with 23.3% of possessions. He won’t start but he will play with both of the bigs who do. He is best at the rim not in transition and does some damage from the free throw line. He is a horrible 3 point shooter so give him every shot that he wants from there (2-15). Starting line-up is expected to be Hughes, Boeheim, Girard along with two bigs - 6’10” Dolezaj and Sidibe. Dolezaj and Sidibe will take less than 16% of possessions but play 60%+ minutes. Things that will help the Hoyas win: Contain Hughes from deep Avoid allowing Syracuse to play in transition Don’t get distracted with a scoring contest between Mac and Girard. Wonderful analysis. I get the sense that fans may be looking passed this game and counting it as a win already. I just hope the players aren’t thinking that way. We are going to have to play one of our better games in order to have a chance at winning this one.
|
|
SaxaCD
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,401
|
Post by SaxaCD on Dec 11, 2019 2:49:30 GMT -5
I thought if that was going to happen, it would have been VS SMU.
|
|
jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,040
|
Post by jwp91 on Dec 11, 2019 7:59:39 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the more I think we are likely to see a scoring battle between Mac vs. Girard, two of the most prolific scorers in the history of high school basketball. They are both going to know about the other and his backstory and will be intent on demonstrating who is better. I am guessing that neither has the maturity to put this aside and simply try to win the game.
Girard averages 9.7 points per game and 4.7 assists. Girard's high game so far is 12 points. I'll take the over for this kid who grew up in upstate New York and likely has dreamed of playing the Hoyas if he chose to attend the correctional institute known as Syracuse.
According to MaxPreps, Girard was the #62 recruit in the country last year vs. #324 for Mac so Girard was more conventionally appreciated by the recruiting services.
With Boeheim (6'6") and Girard (6'1") at their respective heights, I wonder if Allen and Mac will switch up defensive responsibilities to get a little more height on Boeheim. It will make for an interesting storyline/side circus. Hopefully, Mac recent form will continue.
|
|
jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,040
|
Post by jwp91 on Dec 11, 2019 8:06:04 GMT -5
So here is a summary of my statistical research about Syracuse based on KenPom, Hoopslens and Synergy. It many ways it looks like a typical Syracuse team. Syracuse’s pace averages 68.3 possessions. This is less than our average pace of 73.3. (Note that Leblanc was one of our most effective players in transition season to date along with Pickett and Yurtseven. The rest of the team rates as ‘below average’ or ‘poor’ based on Synergy. Without Leblanc, it might make sense to slow the pace a bit.) SU gives up offensive rebounds, but they are superior at blocks and steals. Their 3 point defense is surprisingly good given their 2-3 zone (28.2%) Offensively, they live based on the 3 (34.1% success rate and 36.5% of shot attempted) and shoot free throws poorly (69.3%) SU is exceptional in transition - 1.21 PPP in 20% of possesions and is only fair in overall half cour at .846 PPP. They are 92% percentile in out-of-bound from the end zone plays so we need to avoid giving up easy plays. There are 4 players who play at least 45% of minutes and have a usage rate over 20% Elijah Hughes (6’6”) is by far the best player on the team from a statistical perspective. He plays 91% minutes, has a 118 ORtg, and makes 3s at a rate of .438. He excels at the 3 point line and the free-throw line. His weakness is 2 pt jump shots. Hughes is excellent as a spot up 3 point shooter and in transition. Buddy Boeheim (6’6”) plays 80% of minutes at a 102 Ortg. He makes 3s at 36.5% and uses 22% of possessions. Buddy is very good in transition and off screens. He is average at spot-up shooting. If he hurts us, it will probably be from behind the line. Joseph Girard (6’1”) is the freshman PG and is one of the few high school players who was a more prolific scorer than Mac in high school. For reference, Mac scored 2,801 in high school and Girard scored 4,763 starting when he was in 8th grade. He averaged 50 points a game as a high school junior. He is shooting 31% from deep. Synergy rates him the 89th percentile as a ball-handler for PNR. He is also good in transition and from hand-offs. Hooplens indicates that he does most of his damage (compared to a median PG )from the free-throw line in which he is 23-24. Quincy Guerier (6’7”) plays 47% of possessions with an 82 Ortg. He is a high usage player with 23.3% of possessions. He won’t start but he will play with both of the bigs who do. He is best at the rim not in transition and does some damage from the free throw line. He is a horrible 3 point shooter so give him every shot that he wants from there (2-15). Starting line-up is expected to be Hughes, Boeheim, Girard along with two bigs - 6’10” Dolezaj and Sidibe. Dolezaj and Sidibe will take less than 16% of possessions but play 60%+ minutes. Things that will help the Hoyas win: Contain Hughes from deep Avoid allowing Syracuse to play in transition Don’t get distracted with a scoring contest between Mac and Girard. An addendum... Synergy has defensive PPP statistics by offensive play type with national percentiles. SU is 'excellent' against spot ups (93% percentile) and cuts (96%), 'very good' against post-ups (79%)), 'average' against transition (50%) and offensive rebounds (42%), and 'poor' against PNR ball handler (10% on 10 possessions). Meanwhile, Mac is our best PRN ball handler with .938 PPP in 32 possessions (79th percentile)
|
|
calhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,362
|
Post by calhoya on Dec 11, 2019 8:26:30 GMT -5
Need more offensive diversity in this game. If it ends up a shootout between McClung and Girard, I do not like our chances against that zone, which will work to take Yurtseven out of the game on offense. Hoyas defense against the 3 still is nothing to get excited about and that is what the Orange shoot. SMU had many open looks and could not hit their shots. Need Mosley, Allen, Gardner, Alexander, Blair and Pickett taking and making their shots to make this offense more diverse and force the Orange to extend that zone and open up the lane.
|
|
jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,040
|
Post by jwp91 on Dec 11, 2019 8:29:19 GMT -5
Another thought...
Syracuse historically is exceptional with blocks at the rim on bigs. Meanwhile, this is a MAJOR weakness of Yurt. This might be the most important game for that fall-away jump shot for Yurt. Also, his being pure from 15' in the heart of that zone will go along way.
|
|
|
Post by hoyalove4ever on Dec 11, 2019 8:54:04 GMT -5
Agree, but I want Yurt to go hard to the hoop as well.
|
|
Bigs"R"Us
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,642
|
Post by Bigs"R"Us on Dec 11, 2019 9:26:47 GMT -5
Need to draw fouls and Yurtseven need to stay on the floor.
|
|
rhw485
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 742
|
Post by rhw485 on Dec 11, 2019 9:35:01 GMT -5
While it hasn't yielded a win in Ewing's first two games, I've been impressed with his overall offensive approach against the zone.
We've done a good job of screening the zone and opening up good post opportunities. This is really a great opportunity for our improved ball movement to shine. We have multiple options to put in middle of zone but intrigued by Yurt7 (despite turnover concerns) for 2 main reasons: (1) height which should allow for easier passes in and then give him a clean look over the top of zone and (2) his jumper. We cannot fall into the trap of just passing around the perimeter and chucking a 3.
Mosely was given the Lamar Stephens assignment on Penn St. and the Lindy Waters assignment on OK St, he'll almost certainly get the first crack at Hughes. Need to force Hughes to beat us any way other than just shooting 3s and Mosely can't help off him either.
|
|
jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,040
|
Post by jwp91 on Dec 11, 2019 10:07:45 GMT -5
Agree, but I want Yurt to go hard to the hoop as well. When he goes to the hoop, it should always be strong. There have been way too many blocks from less than 1’.
|
|
|
Post by gatormcclusky on Dec 11, 2019 10:32:09 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the more I think we are likely to see a scoring battle between Mac vs. Girard, two of the most prolific scorers in the history of high school basketball. They are both going to know about the other and his backstory and will be intent on demonstrating who is better. I am guessing that neither has the maturity to put this aside and simply try to win the game. Girard averages 9.7 points per game and 4.7 assists. Girard's high game so far is 12 points. I'll take the over for this kid who grew up in upstate New York and likely has dreamed of playing the Hoyas if he chose to attend the correctional institute known as Syracuse. According to MaxPreps, Girard was the #62 recruit in the country last year vs. #324 for Mac so Girard was more conventionally appreciated by the recruiting services. With Boeheim (6'6") and Girard (6'1") at their respective heights, I wonder if Allen and Mac will switch up defensive responsibilities to get a little more height on Boeheim. It will make for an interesting storyline/side circus. Hopefully, Mac recent form will continue. I love the Synergy stuff you're bringing to the board - that's awesome info. I hope you're wrong about this though, because like calhoya said it won't be good for the Hoyas as a team if Mac decides to derail the offense over some perceived contest with Girard. I'm fairly confident that won't happen though, because A) I think (hope) Mac is mature enough now not to get caught up in trying to prove anything to the point it would take away from our chances to win the game, and B) Girard hasn't shown that he's able to make much of an impact as a college player yet and certainly not to the level that McClung has shown, so any scoring contest between the two would probably end up pretty one-sided anyway. I know Terrell is listed at 6'3 and Mac is at 6'2, but seeing them standing together I don't see any actual height difference. McClung looks to be physically stronger and thicker, too - I think if he stays focused on defense he can do a solid job sticking with Boeheim. He's been playing a lot better the last few games on that end of the floor and I'm hoping that's a sign that he's turning a corner to become a more consistent defender. The physical tools are there, it's just on him to dial it in mentally each game and avoid lapses in effort or focus.
|
|
|
Post by hoyalove4ever on Dec 11, 2019 10:59:51 GMT -5
Agree, but I want Yurt to go hard to the hoop as well. When he goes to the hoop, it should always be strong. There have been way too many blocks from less than 1’. It is maddening. Just go for the dunk hard, and if you miss, get blocked, or get fouled, so be it.
|
|
jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,040
|
Post by jwp91 on Dec 11, 2019 12:07:29 GMT -5
The more I think about it, the more I think we are likely to see a scoring battle between Mac vs. Girard, two of the most prolific scorers in the history of high school basketball. They are both going to know about the other and his backstory and will be intent on demonstrating who is better. I am guessing that neither has the maturity to put this aside and simply try to win the game. Girard averages 9.7 points per game and 4.7 assists. Girard's high game so far is 12 points. I'll take the over for this kid who grew up in upstate New York and likely has dreamed of playing the Hoyas if he chose to attend the correctional institute known as Syracuse. According to MaxPreps, Girard was the #62 recruit in the country last year vs. #324 for Mac so Girard was more conventionally appreciated by the recruiting services. With Boeheim (6'6") and Girard (6'1") at their respective heights, I wonder if Allen and Mac will switch up defensive responsibilities to get a little more height on Boeheim. It will make for an interesting storyline/side circus. Hopefully, Mac recent form will continue. I love the Synergy stuff you're bringing to the board - that's awesome info. I hope you're wrong about this though, because like calhoya said it won't be good for the Hoyas as a team if Mac decides to derail the offense over some perceived contest with Girard. I'm fairly confident that won't happen though, because A) I think (hope) Mac is mature enough now not to get caught up in trying to prove anything to the point it would take away from our chances to win the game, and B) Girard hasn't shown that he's able to make much of an impact as a college player yet and certainly not to the level that McClung has shown, so any scoring contest between the two would probably end up pretty one-sided anyway. I know Terrell is listed at 6'3 and Mac is at 6'2, but seeing them standing together I don't see any actual height difference. McClung looks to be physically stronger and thicker, too - I think if he stays focused on defense he can do a solid job sticking with Boeheim. He's been playing a lot better the last few games on that end of the floor and I'm hoping that's a sign that he's turning a corner to become a more consistent defender. The physical tools are there, it's just on him to dial it in mentally each game and avoid lapses in effort or focus. Thanks. I can’t get to DC often enough to justify season tickets...so I am spending some of that savings on analytics. I think I agree about it not being good for the Hoyas, but after watching Mac for the last 2 games, I am not sure I could tell the difference. Mac is going to Mac. When it is going in, it is going to look great. I am overlooking the shots from 1/2 court and the out of control drives resulting in turnovers, but he is going to be aggressive regardless. I wonder how Girard will respond and if we will pass the ‘threshold’ where it starts to be an individual battle. Regarding Girard, we would have said the same about Mac at this point last year. I speculate this game will have a little extra significance for him with Mac as an opponent. I am hoping Girard will inspire Mac to put in the defensive effort he has shown on occasions without any silly fouls whether or not Mac is guarding him directly.
|
|