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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Mar 2, 2019 22:20:15 GMT -5
I haven't gone through all the tiebreaker scenarios, but I'm fairly confident that we now can't finish any lower than 7th. - We hold the tiebreaker v. Providence, based on head-to-head, and they already have 10 losses. - We hold the tiebreaker v. Butler, due to our win vs. Nova. - We also hold the tiebreaker v. DePaul, due to our win vs. Nova (unless a weird 3-4 way tiebreaker comes into place).
So with 2 games left to play, we have anywhere between the #3 and #7 seeds in the realm of possibility.
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 2, 2019 22:47:40 GMT -5
I haven't gone through all the tiebreaker scenarios, but I'm fairly confident that we now can't finish any lower than 7th. - We hold the tiebreaker v. Providence, based on head-to-head, and they already have 10 losses. - We hold the tiebreaker v. Butler, due to our win vs. Nova. - We also hold the tiebreaker v. DePaul, due to our win vs. Nova (unless a weird 3-4 way tiebreaker comes into place). So with 2 games left to play, we have anywhere between the #3 and #7 seeds in the realm of possibility. 1 win OR 2 Creighton losses clinches no worse than 6th
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,358
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 3, 2019 17:15:57 GMT -5
Creighton win is a killer. Have to like their chances at going 9-9 now.
Even if we beat DePaul there’s a scenario where at 9-9 we could play Wednesday, which is unfathomable.
If we lose at DePaul then we have to hope Seton Hall loses both its remaining games against Nova and Marquette.
What sickens me the most is Nova will at least get another share of the conference title.
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
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Post by mdtd on Mar 3, 2019 17:19:41 GMT -5
Is there any way the Georgetown beats DePaul and still plays on Wednesday? Assuming Marquette beats us: If Seton Hall wins out, they get 9-9 and would have the Marquette tiebreaker over us. Creighton holds the tiebreaker if they win out as they beat us twice. If Xavier beats Butler, they are 9-8 in conference and may have a tiebreaker over us depending on how the rest works out. Now, St. John's vs Xavier is what I don't get. If all goes against us, ST. John's would hold the tiebreaker with their record over Marquette, assuming they win. If Xavier wins, then St. Johns takes 6th with an 8-10 record. But if Xavier is to lose, they may have the tiebreaker.
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
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Post by mdtd on Mar 3, 2019 17:22:17 GMT -5
Creighton win is a killer. Have to like their chances at going 9-9 now. Even if we beat DePaul there’s a scenario where at 9-9 we could play Wednesday, which is unfathomable. If we lose at DePaul then we have to hope Seton Hall loses both its remaining games against Nova and Marquette. What sickens me the most is Nova will at least get another share of the conference title. Well, that answers my question. Is there only one scenario which this happens?
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 3, 2019 18:10:37 GMT -5
Creighton win is a killer. Have to like their chances at going 9-9 now. Even if we beat DePaul there’s a scenario where at 9-9 we could play Wednesday, which is unfathomable. If we lose at DePaul then we have to hope Seton Hall loses both its remaining games against Nova and Marquette. What sickens me the most is Nova will at least get another share of the conference title. Well, that answers my question. Is there only one scenario which this happens? See DFWs post in the other thread. There is one scenario at 9-9 where we’d be 7th.
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lda05816
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Post by lda05816 on Mar 3, 2019 18:18:51 GMT -5
Win on Wednesday and we should be in solid position for top 6. Outside of finishing top 6, my hope for the BET is staying away from a 1st round matchup against Creighton.
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smokeyjack
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Post by smokeyjack on Mar 3, 2019 19:48:43 GMT -5
Win on Wednesday and we should be in solid position for top 6. Outside of finishing top 6, my hope for the BET is staying away from a 1st round matchup against Creighton. F Creighton. Don’t come at the Hoyas 3x. Love to see that band of trash again.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 3, 2019 20:30:53 GMT -5
Is there any way the Georgetown beats DePaul and still plays on Wednesday? Yes, but only if Seton Hall wins two games, which is unlikely, but not impossible. If Georgetown wins Wednesday and Seton Hall loses to Villanova, we have 6th locked up. If we win, we can't have more than 9 losses. If Seton Hall loses any of their remaining games, they'll have 10.
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DanMcQ
Moderator
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Post by DanMcQ on Mar 4, 2019 2:10:17 GMT -5
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HoyaDr
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 616
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Post by HoyaDr on Mar 4, 2019 7:54:36 GMT -5
Wow the bottom 8 teams have the potential to finish as high 3rd or 4th or low as last place. This is with 2 games to go! Why isn't there a BE game tonight? This is exciting stuff haha.
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DanMcQ
Moderator
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Post by DanMcQ on Mar 6, 2019 23:31:07 GMT -5
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Post by hobokenhoya on Mar 6, 2019 23:40:14 GMT -5
I guess I should post here the bball.nothing.net simulator is great and BL is as long as nova wins at SHU and Creighton beats DePaul, we are still the 6 seed with a loss at Marquette.
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Post by hobokenhoya on Mar 6, 2019 23:40:58 GMT -5
Hard to find less useful tools than brackets “if the season ended today” when the season isn’t over.
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by mdtd on Mar 7, 2019 0:03:51 GMT -5
bball.notnothing.net/bigeast.php?sport=mbbHere's what I've been using to see tournament pairings. I'm expecting a loss to Marquette, so my ideal results are: Creighton beats DePaul, Butler over Provy, Nova over Hall and Xavier over St. John's. Assuming GTWN loses to Marquette, the HOyyas play Xavier in a 3v6 (don't like the matchup but if St. John's wins, we'd get them in MSG which I like even less) then Marquette. Assuming the same and Georgetown wins, we'd still get X but this time followed by Nova in the 4/5. And If St. John's wins in that scenario we'd get Creighton, which I dislike a lot. But regardless, there could be a better example that I don't see. The link makes it a lot easier to visualize.
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Post by hobokenhoya on Mar 7, 2019 0:08:49 GMT -5
bball.notnothing.net/bigeast.php?sport=mbbHere's what I've been using to see tournament pairings. I'm expecting a loss to Marquette, so my ideal results are: Creighton beats DePaul, Butler over Provy, Nova over Hall and Xavier over St. John's. Assuming GTWN loses to Marquette, the HOyyas play Xavier in a 3v6 (don't like the matchup but if St. John's wins, we'd get them in MSG which I like even less) then Marquette. Assuming the same and Georgetown wins, we'd still get X but this time followed by Nova in the 4/5. And If St. John's wins in that scenario we'd get Creighton, which I dislike a lot. But regardless, there could be a better example that I don't see. The link makes it a lot easier to visualize. [/quote Beat you to it homie
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
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Post by mdtd on Mar 7, 2019 0:21:00 GMT -5
bball.notnothing.net/bigeast.php?sport=mbbHere's what I've been using to see tournament pairings. I'm expecting a loss to Marquette, so my ideal results are: Creighton beats DePaul, Butler over Provy, Nova over Hall and Xavier over St. John's. Assuming GTWN loses to Marquette, the HOyyas play Xavier in a 3v6 (don't like the matchup but if St. John's wins, we'd get them in MSG which I like even less) then Marquette. Assuming the same and Georgetown wins, we'd still get X but this time followed by Nova in the 4/5. And If St. John's wins in that scenario we'd get Creighton, which I dislike a lot. But regardless, there could be a better example that I don't see. The link makes it a lot easier to visualize. [/quote Beat you to it homie
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Post by hobokenhoya on Mar 7, 2019 0:23:49 GMT -5
I’m all I’m in your desired results let’s get it.
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Post by JohnnyJones on Mar 7, 2019 0:24:11 GMT -5
I just went through all of this manually and Hoboken is correct that as long as Nova and Creighton win, we get the 6 even if we lose. All of the potential 8-10 teams (us, Xavier/sju loser, SH and Butler) all split with each other. So it comes down to who beat Nova. We did and the Xavier/SJU loser did but the Hall and Butler did not).
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madgesiq92
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Post by madgesiq92 on Mar 7, 2019 5:36:56 GMT -5
I just went through all of this manually and Hoboken is correct that as long as Nova and Creighton win, we get the 6 even if we lose. All of the potential 8-10 teams (us, Xavier/sju loser, SH and Butler) all split with each other. So it comes down to who beat Nova. We did and the Xavier/SJU loser did but the Hall and Butler did not). Thanks for the explanation. I would put probabilities at slightly above 50% of getting those 2 results.
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