mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 9, 2019 17:51:07 GMT -5
Need 5 of 7 it seems. Need to take one of Marquette/Nova and one of at Hall/Creighton. Winning 4 and making it is possible but unlikely. Depends on how the bubble will shake up but 5 should do. 9-9 could do so if no bubble team gets those wins but with ample opportunities left that's unlikely, accounting for bid stealers. 9-9 isn’t remotely close. 10-8 might not even be close. 11 wins minimum to be even in the mix. We aren’t even considered on the bubble as is and we have only two more quality win chances left. Need to be realistic here with our resume. The bubble is absolutely terrible this year with some teams like Florida having 0 q1 wins and being in some places. Saying 9-9 isn't remotely close is wrong. With ample q1 opportunities, 9-9 is unlikely but possible nowhere near not even close. How is the committee supposed to hit 68 with 1 and at absolute max 2 from the Pac-12 and a-10, 3 big ten teams falling off, Oklahoma not looking good enough for the tournament and 2 from the American. The more you look, the more you realize how poor the bubble is. 9-9 in a major conference with good road wins and a potential 4 q1 wins would be hard to ignore. I mean saying 10-8 isn't close means you haven't seen the bubble this year. Also, while I'm at it, people who say the big east will get 2 bids are just incorrect. No facts to back up that take. No reason this conference would get 2 in a reasonable year, let alone a bad year on the bubble. St. John's is in the tournament barring a major collapse which could be started after their performance today. Lastly, I'm not saying this team is a surefire tournament team by any means but it's not impossible. There are a minimum of 4q1 games left and 4 road games left, opportunities are there just have to take advantage. I personally think we take 3 in Depaul here, Seton Hall here and one of the remaining 5, which wouldn't put us in the tournament by any means. Just think it's possible, don't see a game where this team is blown out and has no chance of winning.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Feb 9, 2019 18:45:01 GMT -5
9-9 isn’t remotely close. 10-8 might not even be close. 11 wins minimum to be even in the mix. We aren’t even considered on the bubble as is and we have only two more quality win chances left. Need to be realistic here with our resume. The bubble is absolutely terrible this year with some teams like Florida having 0 q1 wins and being in some places. Saying 9-9 isn't remotely close is wrong. With ample q1 opportunities, 9-9 is unlikely but possible nowhere near not even close. How is the committee supposed to hit 68 with 1 and at absolute max 2 from the Pac-12 and a-10, 3 big ten teams falling off, Oklahoma not looking good enough for the tournament and 2 from the American. The more you look, the more you realize how poor the bubble is. 9-9 in a major conference with good road wins and a potential 4 q1 wins would be hard to ignore. I mean saying 10-8 isn't close means you haven't seen the bubble this year. Also, while I'm at it, people who say the big east will get 2 bids are just incorrect. No facts to back up that take. No reason this conference would get 2 in a reasonable year, let alone a bad year on the bubble. St. John's is in the tournament barring a major collapse which could be started after their performance today. Lastly, I'm not saying this team is a surefire tournament team by any means but it's not impossible. There are a minimum of 4q1 games left and 4 road games left, opportunities are there just have to take advantage. I personally think we take 3 in Depaul here, Seton Hall here and one of the remaining 5, which wouldn't put us in the tournament by any means. Just think it's possible, don't see a game where this team is blown out and has no chance of winning. Not looking to get into a debate, but I respectfully disagree. We were 5-5 and 3rd in the BE going into today and most people who do this for a living didnt even consider us on the bubble (see ESPN today). Going 9-9 means 4-3 down the stretch and unless three of those four wins are Nova, Marquette, and Creighton, then I contend we have < 5 pct shot at an at large bid if 9-9 means beating DePaul and Seton Hall twice. The BE is the 5th best conference in the country this year and for a team with no marquee OOC wins, and among the sofest schedules of any major conference team, there is no scenario I see 9-9 and 19-12 overall even registering on the committee’s radar. It will take 11-7 at a minimum to be in the conversation, and even that would depend on the other bubble teams. We have a much better shot winning 3 games at MSG then going 6-1 down the stretch in a conference where all but two teams have failed to separate themselves. Also we shouldn’t be disappointed with 9-9 and a NIT bid - that’s progress for a team picked to finish 9th preseason in the league. Next year I think we can realistically talk resume, as we’ll have a much better OOC schedule, and we should expect to finish above .500 in conference. If at this point next year we're debating the bubble, then I’ll be disappointed and feel we’ve underachieved. But for this year let’s not look at this through blue and gray colored glasses and try to will our thinking into a possible bid, as when it doesn’t happen it will then seem like we under performed.
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kettlehill
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Post by kettlehill on Feb 10, 2019 11:37:41 GMT -5
I think 10-8 would do it- if it included a win over either V or MU. It certainly just got harder after yesterday’s loss. Need to beat SH Wednesday end of story. Problem is I suspect part of the teams “flatness” early yesterday was tiredness. SH will be 3rd game in a week. Gut check big time. No Angel Jesse, go for 30.
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Feb 10, 2019 13:09:20 GMT -5
I hate to introduce a serious, academic references into this discussion but a phrase keeps popping up in my head, "The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born". Thanks to Google I was able to identify it as a statement made by Antonio Gramsci, an Italian communist in the 1930's. Hey Lic, who knew that a mid 20th century paisano would be the one to identify what ails the 21st century Hoyas.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 10, 2019 14:29:31 GMT -5
Winning and improving our metrics will be how this team makes the tournament. It's that simple. Need 2 of the next 3. If we lose 2/3 of 3 the only way to make the tournament will be the BET. These next 3 are crucial. If we take Seton Hall, the conversation will be back on. If not, there isn't one to have really. Providence beating St. John's gave us our 3rd q1 win (as of now). Having 5 q1 wins on Selection Sunday and being above .500 would be hard to ignore with the weak bubble. However, Wednesday is a must win.
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thedragon
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Post by thedragon on Feb 11, 2019 10:45:31 GMT -5
Seems crazy.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 11, 2019 11:11:42 GMT -5
I think the Georgetown NCAA odds are pretty slim at this point, but I do think that a more realistic 9-9 type finish (or 8-10 with a BET win or two) would probably get us into the NIT, and I think that would be progress and a good result.
Right now, the program needs to be able to sell a narrative of "this team is improving and getting better." I think that's crucial for recruiting, and an NIT bid would tell that story well, plus give us a chance to play some extra games and get the freshman some post season experience. Playing in the NIT would also be a good morale boost for everybody on the team, and who knows, we might even get a game in McDonough out of it.
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bostonfan
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Post by bostonfan on Feb 11, 2019 11:21:18 GMT -5
I think the Georgetown NCAA odds are pretty slim at this point, but I do think that a more realistic 9-9 type finish (or 8-10 with a BET win or two) would probably get us into the NIT, and I think that would be progress and a good result. Right now, the program needs to be able to sell a narrative of "this team is improving and getting better." I think that's crucial for recruiting, and an NIT bid would tell that story well, plus give us a chance to play some extra games and get the freshman some post season experience. Playing in the NIT would also be a good morale boost for everybody on the team, and who knows, we might even get a game in McDonough out of it. The fact that the Hoyas are still in the conversation for the Big Dance at this point I think is a step in the right direction. I think they should get to around 9-9 in conference and then they take their chances in the Big East tourney. Even if they don't get a bid tom the NCAA tourney, if they can be 9-9 or even 8-10, I think they will be in the NIT.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Feb 11, 2019 11:27:10 GMT -5
From the beginning, my hope has been the NIT, 8 or 9 wins in the BE and 20 wins; however, going into the Butler game, my thinking was getting bigger simply because of the way the BE is lining up right now. I was very disappointed against Butler and that pretty much ended my NCAA thinking unless we can avoid 2 out of 3 possible sweeps by CU, Nova and MU. The NET number is just so hard to overcome right now to give it much more thought for a while.
However, for the first time in a long time, I actually feel the team we put on the floor has the capability to win the BET. To me, that is a great sign of progress.
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seaweed
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Post by seaweed on Feb 11, 2019 11:43:11 GMT -5
Please put this thread on a 10 day hiatus. Whatever we say today is meaningless unless the guys nut out a couple of Ws.
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guru
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Post by guru on Feb 11, 2019 12:21:14 GMT -5
I think the Georgetown NCAA odds are pretty slim at this point, but I do think that a more realistic 9-9 type finish (or 8-10 with a BET win or two) would probably get us into the NIT, and I think that would be progress and a good result. Right now, the program needs to be able to sell a narrative of "this team is improving and getting better." I think that's crucial for recruiting, and an NIT bid would tell that story well, plus give us a chance to play some extra games and get the freshman some post season experience. Playing in the NIT would also be a good morale boost for everybody on the team, and who knows, we might even get a game in McDonough out of it. So the play and results to this point in the season don’t represent any progress or good results? You’re still holding out for more proof? Really? I get your dogged allegiance to propping up JT3 but it’s getting really tiresome.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 11, 2019 13:05:25 GMT -5
From the beginning, my hope has been the NIT, 8 or 9 wins in the BE and 20 wins; however, going into the Butler game, my thinking was getting bigger simply because of the way the BE is lining up right now. I was very disappointed against Butler and that pretty much ended my NCAA thinking unless we can avoid 2 out of 3 possible sweeps by CU, Nova and MU. The NET number is just so hard to overcome right now to give it much more thought for a while. However, for the first time in a long time, I actually feel the team we put on the floor has the capability to win the BET. To me, that is a great sign of progress. NET will actually improve by a bunch with a road win at SHU, and I think it will end up being a Q1 win as well unless SHU tanks down the stretch. I think the second game at Creighton may be the biggest game we have left outside of the return SHU game. You are absolutely right that we can't afford a sweep against them. FWIW, the bubble did weaken significantly over the weekend as Dauster points out (Davidson, Bowling Green, Indiana). We got several results that have kept us in the conversation for now if we can take care of business on Wed.
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 11, 2019 13:25:13 GMT -5
Need to make a run to have a chance in 5 weeks. I think the "bubble is weak" argument just isn't valid. Of course the teams on the bubble don't have great resumes right now, there are still 5 weeks to play. The teams who are able to string a few nice wins together will hear their name called. 3 Quad wins for the Hoyas is good right now with 4 more chances to come. Lose on Wednesday night and making a run becomes much more difficult.
EDIT: I should say the argument that the bubble is weaker than previous years. The bubble typically looks poor at the time of year. Let's wait to see what it looks like a few weeks from now.
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thedragon
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Post by thedragon on Feb 11, 2019 13:43:31 GMT -5
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 11, 2019 15:08:18 GMT -5
I think the Georgetown NCAA odds are pretty slim at this point, but I do think that a more realistic 9-9 type finish (or 8-10 with a BET win or two) would probably get us into the NIT, and I think that would be progress and a good result. Right now, the program needs to be able to sell a narrative of "this team is improving and getting better." I think that's crucial for recruiting, and an NIT bid would tell that story well, plus give us a chance to play some extra games and get the freshman some post season experience. Playing in the NIT would also be a good morale boost for everybody on the team, and who knows, we might even get a game in McDonough out of it. So the play and results to this point in the season don’t represent any progress or good results? You’re still holding out for more proof? Really? I get your dogged allegiance to propping up JT3 but it’s getting really tiresome. Considering the Hoyas lost 9 of their last 11 games last season under Ewing, I think with at least 8 games left this season means that the jury is still out. As someone else wrote this morning, coming into the season they felt that progress would be shown by "NIT, 8 or 9 wins in the BE and 20 wins". All three of those goals are definitely attainable, but certainly not guaranteed at this very moment. If you're just talking about how the team has looked, I agree that the talent and quality of play has been better this season, but that only goes so far with convincing people that don't watch every game that the team is making progress.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Feb 11, 2019 15:09:11 GMT -5
All this tells me is that these media sites have looked at their analytics and realized our fan based is clamoring for a tourney bid so much that just mentioning us drives clicks
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Feb 11, 2019 15:11:54 GMT -5
So the play and results to this point in the season don’t represent any progress or good results? You’re still holding out for more proof? Really? I get your dogged allegiance to propping up JT3 but it’s getting really tiresome. Considering the Hoyas lost 9 of their last 11 games last season under Ewing, I think with at least 8 games left this season means that the jury is still out. As someone else wrote this morning, coming into the season they felt that progress would be shown by "NIT, 8 or 9 wins in the BE and 20 wins". All three of those goals are definitely attainable, but certainly not guaranteed at this very moment. If you're just talking about how the team has looked, I agree that the talent and quality of play has been better this season, but that only goes so far with convincing people that don't watch every game that the team is making progress. Of course we have gotten better. Last year we ended up 94 in KenPom. This year we are 83. Another few years at this rate and we will be in the tourney!
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 11, 2019 15:15:24 GMT -5
So the play and results to this point in the season don’t represent any progress or good results? You’re still holding out for more proof? Really? I get your dogged allegiance to propping up JT3 but it’s getting really tiresome. I realize that you nitpick everything I write, but even for you this is a stretch. To aid your comprehension, let me be about as clear as possible: I think an NIT bid would be a fantastic result for this group, and certainly show improvement, and I and never said otherwise.
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guru
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Post by guru on Feb 11, 2019 15:49:24 GMT -5
So the play and results to this point in the season don’t represent any progress or good results? You’re still holding out for more proof? Really? I get your dogged allegiance to propping up JT3 but it’s getting really tiresome. Considering the Hoyas lost 9 of their last 11 games last season under Ewing, I think with at least 8 games left this season means that the jury is still out. As someone else wrote this morning, coming into the season they felt that progress would be shown by "NIT, 8 or 9 wins in the BE and 20 wins". All three of those goals are definitely attainable, but certainly not guaranteed at this very moment. If you're just talking about how the team has looked, I agree that the talent and quality of play has been better this season, but that only goes so far with convincing people that don't watch every game that the team is making progress. all we can go on at this point is how the team has looked this season. I'm just not sure how helpful it is to look toward a potential late-season collapse to hold out "hope" that one's definitive statement that this is clearly the worst team since 2004 (it's not, by the way, and neither was last year's team) will be proven accurate.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 11, 2019 15:52:32 GMT -5
all we can go on at this point is how the team has looked this season. I 'm just not sure how helpful it is to look toward a potential late-season collapse to hold out "hope" that one's definitive statement that this is clearly the worst team since 2004 (it's not, by the way, and neither was last year's team) will be proven accurate. Other than in your mind, nobody is holding out hope toward a late-season collapse to prove a statement right. As I already said, I already think the team isn't the worst team since 2004 (and I never used the word "clearly" either), so there's nothing to even prove. You're just off-base on this one. I realize you're having trouble letting it go, but you're not getting anywhere with this.
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