lda05816
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 604
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Post by lda05816 on Jan 30, 2019 13:13:31 GMT -5
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hoyafan23
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 290
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Post by hoyafan23 on Jan 30, 2019 14:52:16 GMT -5
Can someone please PM the article?
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sleepy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,079
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Post by sleepy on Jan 30, 2019 14:56:49 GMT -5
Same, if possible.
We gonna win the BET, so the answer is yes, we will make the NCAA tournament. (If you say it enough, it will come true)
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hoya9797
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,201
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Post by hoya9797 on Jan 30, 2019 16:24:24 GMT -5
Can someone please PM the article? Why not pay for it?
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,596
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Post by guru on Jan 30, 2019 16:38:03 GMT -5
This article should be required reading for all Hoyas fans, but particularly the stat-happy naysayers who love to flood the board. This program has pulled itself out of the doldrums of 2 years ago and is headed in the right direction.
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jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,977
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Post by jwp91 on Jan 30, 2019 17:46:55 GMT -5
I used to love to foresee and forecast. Now I better appreciate the wisdom that it starts with beating Xavier tomorrow night. Nothing else really matters.
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lichoya68
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
Posts: 17,436
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Post by lichoya68 on Jan 31, 2019 10:26:14 GMT -5
win one by one by at least one and HAVE SOME FUN yup thats is MEANARYWAYUP for sure its FEBURARY EVE FOLKS and you know what that is wright ?
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hoyazeke
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,807
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Post by hoyazeke on Jan 31, 2019 12:03:20 GMT -5
Yeah for the 1st time in a while I feel like the tourney is possible without some magical BET run....the only thing that seems unlikely is beating Nova or beating Quette on the road. But winning any other game left on the schedule wouldn't surprise me....but man are the early loses gonna hurt if we have a bad night in DC the rest of the way....every loss except SMU and X you can find one play that if we played it correctly we win the game....smh
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 31, 2019 13:04:47 GMT -5
I can't read the Athletic article as I don't subscribe, but I think the NCAA tournament dreams are just that at the moment. Our OOC was so bad, that we could go 11-7 and beat no tournament teams given how weak the conference is. Let's say only Villanova and Marquette make it in (a distinct possibility). We could beat: Xavier, Providence, Butler, Seton Hall (twice), Creighton, and DePaul (twice), and end at 11-7 and theoretically end the year having beat 0 teams that make the tournament.
This is where the failure to defeat Syracuse and Marquette hurts us. We also have two sub-100 losses in Loyola Marymount and SMU.
This is really driven by the conference having a down year and failure to get any marquee OOC wins. If you don't believe me this could happen, look at Nebraska last season when the Big 10 had a down year. They were 22-11, 13-5 in conference, and they were a 4 seed in the NIT.
In all likelihood, even 11-7 wouldn't get us in (unless those wins included 2 wins against Villanova and one against Marquette, which is extremely unlikely). Without some good wins at the BET and/or winning the BET, the NCAA tournament is a big long shot at the moment.
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Elvado
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,473
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Post by Elvado on Jan 31, 2019 13:07:28 GMT -5
Let’s get to 11-7 and see what shakes out.
Lot of work to be done to get there. If we are left out at 11-7, it will hurt but we will clearly be on our way.
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Jan 31, 2019 13:08:19 GMT -5
I continue to think that 21 wins has us in. 20 is on the wrong side of the bubble, 21 is on the right side of the bubble, and 22 is in, IMO. I don't see them keeping out a 22 win Hoya team missing multiple starters for many of its really tight losses.
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,596
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Post by guru on Jan 31, 2019 13:09:43 GMT -5
I can't read the Athletic article as I don't subscribe, but I think the NCAA tournament dreams are just that at the moment. Our OOC was so bad, that we could go 11-7 and beat no tournament teams given how weak the conference is. Let's say only Villanova and Marquette make it in (a distinct possibility). We could beat: Xavier, Providence, Butler, Seton Hall (twice), Creighton, and DePaul (twice), and end at 11-7 and theoretically end the year having beat 0 teams that make the tournament. This is where the failure to defeat Syracuse and Marquette hurts us. We also have two sub-100 losses in Loyola Marymount and SMU. This is really driven by the conference having a down year and failure to get any marquee OOC wins. If you don't believe me this could happen, look at Nebraska last season when the Big 10 had a down year. They were 22-11, 13-5 in conference, and they were a 4 seed in the NIT. In all likelihood, even 11-7 wouldn't get us in (unless those wins included 2 wins against Villanova and one against Marquette, which is extremely unlikely). Without some good wins at the BET and/or winning the BET, the NCAA tournament is a big long shot at the moment. since you didn't read the article, you don't know that our actual ncaa tournament chances for this season weren't the author's main point. And he makes the exact point about the Syracuse buzzer beater loss being the one that keeps us out.
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lda05816
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 604
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Post by lda05816 on Jan 31, 2019 13:22:08 GMT -5
Tonight's game is a must-win to keep these chances alive as it would be our 3rd Quad 3 loss. And yes I do realize we aren't particularly close to the bubble right now but with the way the team is slowly improving, it's remotely possible to make a run. And I am going to enjoy discussing the possibilities while it lasts (and then I'll start thinking about the BET).
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 31, 2019 14:28:19 GMT -5
I continue to think that 21 wins has us in. 20 is on the wrong side of the bubble, 21 is on the right side of the bubble, and 22 is in, IMO. I don't see them keeping out a 22 win Hoya team missing multiple starters for many of its really tight losses. The tournament committee has had no problem keeping other 22 win high major teams outside the NCAA tournament, so there is no reason to think the Hoyas are special in that regard. 2018: - Nebraska had 22 wins, 13-5 in conference and did not make it. - Penn State had 21 wins, and was 9-9 in the Big Ten and they did not make it. - USC was 23-10, 12-6 in conference, and they did not make it. - Utah was 23-12, 11-7 in conference, and they did not make it. - Oregon was 22-12 and 10-8 in conference and did not make it. - Washington was 20-11 and 10-8 in conference and did not make it. - Mississippi State was 22-11, and 9-9 in conference and did not make it. 22 wins is a far cry from being automatic, and there's nothing special about the Hoyas that makes us in at 22, and these other teams out. This old school logic that 22 wins is some magic number is simply wrong-headed.
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,596
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Post by guru on Jan 31, 2019 14:38:51 GMT -5
I continue to think that 21 wins has us in. 20 is on the wrong side of the bubble, 21 is on the right side of the bubble, and 22 is in, IMO. I don't see them keeping out a 22 win Hoya team missing multiple starters for many of its really tight losses. The tournament committee has had no problem keeping other 22 win high major teams outside the NCAA tournament, so there is no reason to think the Hoyas are special in that regard. 2018: - Nebraska had 22 wins, 13-5 in conference and did not make it. - Penn State had 21 wins, and was 9-9 in the Big Ten and they did not make it. - USC was 23-10, 12-6 in conference, and they did not make it. - Utah was 23-12, 11-7 in conference, and they did not make it. - Oregon was 22-12 and 10-8 in conference and did not make it. - Washington was 20-11 and 10-8 in conference and did not make it. - Mississippi State was 22-11, and 9-9 in conference and did not make it. 22 wins is a far cry from being automatic, and there's nothing special about the Hoyas that makes us in at 22, and these other teams out. This old school logic that 22 wins is some magic number is simply wrong-headed. Man, you really don't want anyone thinking the Hoyas have a shot at making the tournament, do you?
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 31, 2019 14:43:44 GMT -5
The tournament committee has had no problem keeping other 22 win high major teams outside the NCAA tournament, so there is no reason to think the Hoyas are special in that regard. 2018: - Nebraska had 22 wins, 13-5 in conference and did not make it. - Penn State had 21 wins, and was 9-9 in the Big Ten and they did not make it. - USC was 23-10, 12-6 in conference, and they did not make it. - Utah was 23-12, 11-7 in conference, and they did not make it. - Oregon was 22-12 and 10-8 in conference and did not make it. - Washington was 20-11 and 10-8 in conference and did not make it. - Mississippi State was 22-11, and 9-9 in conference and did not make it. 22 wins is a far cry from being automatic, and there's nothing special about the Hoyas that makes us in at 22, and these other teams out. This old school logic that 22 wins is some magic number is simply wrong-headed. Man, you really don't want anyone thinking the Hoyas have a shot at making the tournament, do you? I would love for us to go 11-7, win some games in the BET, and make the tournament. Better yet, I would love to see us finish 14-4 and then there's no doubt. Or win the BET (I know sleepy likes that option). All of this comes from realism. I don't see any reason to say things like "if we get 22 wins we are in," when that's simply not necessarily true (and to clarify: there are scenarios where we could get 22 wins, including those against Villanova and Marquette, and be in - it's just very unlikely). That's the realistic part of me. The fan part of me is desperate for us to make the NCAA tournament. It's been so long since we've had anything to be excited about past the first weekend of the tournament, and my more intense fandom essentially started in 2008, when the NCAA failures began. So I've gone over a decade as an intense Georgetown fan, with basically nothing to show for it in March except disappointing failures. That's pretty irritating, and I am eager to get back onto the right side of things in the tournament. I would be absolutely thrilled to be wrong. If we get 22 wins and make it without beating Villanova or Marquette, I will be happy to eat crow and admit I was wrong, and then hope we can win as many games in the tournament as possible. (For what it's worth, I think simply making the tournament this season would be a major accomplishment.)
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,596
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Post by guru on Jan 31, 2019 14:46:51 GMT -5
I continue to think that 21 wins has us in. 20 is on the wrong side of the bubble, 21 is on the right side of the bubble, and 22 is in, IMO. I don't see them keeping out a 22 win Hoya team missing multiple starters for many of its really tight losses. The tournament committee has had no problem keeping other 22 win high major teams outside the NCAA tournament, so there is no reason to think the Hoyas are special in that regard. 2018: - Nebraska had 22 wins, 13-5 in conference and did not make it. - Penn State had 21 wins, and was 9-9 in the Big Ten and they did not make it. - USC was 23-10, 12-6 in conference, and they did not make it. - Utah was 23-12, 11-7 in conference, and they did not make it. - Oregon was 22-12 and 10-8 in conference and did not make it. - Washington was 20-11 and 10-8 in conference and did not make it. - Mississippi State was 22-11, and 9-9 in conference and did not make it. 22 wins is a far cry from being automatic, and there's nothing special about the Hoyas that makes us in at 22, and these other teams out. This old school logic that 22 wins is some magic number is simply wrong-headed. One other note: In 2018, the Big Ten and Pac 12 were markedly worse in conference RPI ranking than the Big East is right now. Interestingly, though the Big East is currenly 5th in RPI this season as opposed to #2 last season, the BE actual conference RPI number is a tiny bit higher this season (.5753 to .5746) The only truly comparably team on this list is Miss State, but they were .500 in conference where in the Hoyas hypothetical for this season they are 11-7. A 22 win, 11 conference win Hoyas team gets in. Getting to that mark remains a very long shot.
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Jan 31, 2019 15:12:03 GMT -5
I continue to think that 21 wins has us in. 20 is on the wrong side of the bubble, 21 is on the right side of the bubble, and 22 is in, IMO. I don't see them keeping out a 22 win Hoya team missing multiple starters for many of its really tight losses. The tournament committee has had no problem keeping other 22 win high major teams outside the NCAA tournament, so there is no reason to think the Hoyas are special in that regard. 2018: - Nebraska had 22 wins, 13-5 in conference and did not make it. - Penn State had 21 wins, and was 9-9 in the Big Ten and they did not make it. - USC was 23-10, 12-6 in conference, and they did not make it. - Utah was 23-12, 11-7 in conference, and they did not make it. - Oregon was 22-12 and 10-8 in conference and did not make it. - Washington was 20-11 and 10-8 in conference and did not make it. - Mississippi State was 22-11, and 9-9 in conference and did not make it. 22 wins is a far cry from being automatic, and there's nothing special about the Hoyas that makes us in at 22, and these other teams out. This old school logic that 22 wins is some magic number is simply wrong-headed. -Nebraska played a weak SOS and went 0-8 against Group I teams (for comparison, we're projected to have an SOS of 85 and have already won 2 Group I teams). -Penn State had an SOS north of 100, had 21 wins, and only beat OSU in the top-50 (x3). They also lost 3 in a row to end the regular season. -USC came out of the terrible PAC-?? and had one win over a top-50 team (Middle Tennessee). Again, we've already got that and would need more to get to 22 wins. -Utah had the same PAC-?? problem, two total wins over the top-50 (Arizona State and Mizzou, both at home). -Oregon came out of the historically bad PAC-??, had an SOS north of 100, beat two teams in the top-50 (Arizona and ASUx2) while losing to UConn (100+), Washington State (183 at home late in the season), and Oregon State (168) (worse than us, who have two 100+ losses to 105 LMU and 169 SMU). -Washington went 3-6 in their last 9 and came out of the weak PAC-?? (and didn't get to the 22 we're talking about). -Mississippi State had a SOS north of 100 and likewise struggled down the stretch going 4-5 in their last 9 games. So yes - not only did the PAC-??'s reputation destroy a lot of hopes, failure to actually win anything (which we've matched and would surpass if we got to 22 wins), weaker schedules overall, and weak finishes down the stretch mean that they can be differentiated from where Georgetown would be at the end of the day. Not to mention our issues with injuries, etc., would be taken into account. ETA: I think it highly unlikely we get there, but if we make the tournament, I think we're a year ahead of even the most optimistic fan's schedule.
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sleepy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,079
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Post by sleepy on Jan 31, 2019 15:25:59 GMT -5
1997 Fairfield 9 wins 18 losses, 2-12 conference record: Made it
2005 Oakland won 13 games, lost 19 7-9 conference record: Made it
2012 Western Kentucky won 11 games, lost 18, 188th on Kenpom: Made it
2013 Liberty 12 wins, 20 losses, 257 KenPom rating: Made It
2016 Holy Cross 13 wins, 19 losses, 0-9 on the road in league play, 5-13 overall: Made it
What's the one thing these resumes have in common with our Georgetown Hoyas? They all won their conference tournaments (or will win in our case). And that, my friends, is the only resume bullet point that matters.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 31, 2019 15:32:03 GMT -5
Nebraska played a weak SOS and went 0-8 against Group I teams (for comparison, we're projected to have an SOS of 85 and have already won 2 Group I teams). -Penn State had an SOS north of 100, had 21 wins, and only beat OSU in the top-50 (x3). They also lost 3 in a row to end the regular season. -USC came out of the terrible PAC-?? and had one win over a top-50 team (Middle Tennessee). Again, we've already got that and would need more to get to 22 wins. -Utah had the same PAC-?? problem, two total wins over the top-50 (Arizona State and Mizzou, both at home). -Oregon came out of the historically bad PAC-??, had an SOS north of 100, beat two teams in the top-50 (Arizona and ASUx2) while losing to UConn (100+), Washington State (183 at home late in the season), and Oregon State (168) (worse than us, who have two 100+ losses to 105 LMU and 169 SMU). -Washington went 3-6 in their last 9 and came out of the weak PAC-?? (and didn't get to the 22 we're talking about). -Mississippi State had a SOS north of 100 and likewise struggled down the stretch going 4-5 in their last 9 games. So yes - not only did the PAC-??'s reputation destroy a lot of hopes, failure to actually win anything (which we've matched and would surpass if we got to 22 wins), weaker schedules overall, and weak finishes down the stretch mean that they can be differentiated from where Georgetown would be at the end of the day. Not to mention our issues with injuries, etc., would be taken into account. ETA: I think it highly unlikely we get there, but if we make the tournament, I think we're a year ahead of even the most optimistic fan's schedule. - Nebraska also had only 2 losses against Q2-Q4 teams, whereas we have 5 already and could get more. Nebraska's SoS was 96 last year, and even if we are projected at 85, that's awfully close. - USC had only 1 Q2 loss, and 1 Q3 loss. We have 3 Q2 losses, 1 Q3, and 1 Q4. - Utah may have only had one top 50 win, but if you use KenPom, we also have only 1. Even using RPI, we have 2 so far. Definitely an area where we can improve if we win some good games, though. - On Oregon, their SoS was 90, so you're wrong there. They had 4 Q1 wins and 6 Q2 wins. We will not get to those numbers. On the flip side, they also had a bunch of losses in Q2 and Q3. - Washington's SoS was 41, and they had 7 Q1/Q2 wins. So despite the PAC 12 being bad, they still played a strong schedule, that's not what kept them out. - Mississippi State did have a SoS of 101, but again, they had 4 Q1 and 6 Q2 wins, and no Q3-Q4 losses. The bigger overall point is that once you get to the bubble and beyond you can make lots of arguments, but ultimately, our resume wouldn't be materially different from many of these teams above (and in some cases worse), even if we go 11-7. If we did that, would there be arguments for our inclusion? Sure, but so would a lot of other similar teams that played stronger schedules, and that have "good wins" on their resume that we may not have.
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