lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 7, 2019 13:09:33 GMT -5
Regardless of our computer numbers at this point (which are improving by the game lately), we know 2 things for sure the committee has valued in the past. One is non-conference strength of schedule. This is obviously where we will be knocked as ours is currently 239th (according to Warren Nolan). Illinois, USF and Liberty have all turned out to actually be solid opponents so it's certainly not looking as bad as it could have. The 2nd thing is the ability to win on the road or neutral court. Winning @ Illinois, Butler, Providence, St. Johns and a neutral court win over USF will certainly be a positive should we make our way onto the bubble in 5-1/2 weeks time. A ton of work to do yet but with recent progress shown, it's certainly possible.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Feb 7, 2019 13:10:52 GMT -5
I'm not sure what your point is? I don't think they will only use NET, but as far metrics they use NET will be the only official one. That is my issue. The article talks about all the metrics that go into the NET, even if they were to use the RPI, it would be incorporated into the NET... That's my understanding of how it works... Yes, but my understanding is RPI and other metrics go into the NET score, but aren't considered separately anymore. Or at least that's my understanding of those metrics now being "sorted by the NET system". Who knows. Also, separate point, how are ESPN's Power rankings included in tournament selection? It seems like having financial stake in which teams make it would automatically rule any ranking system they put together irrelevant. |
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 7, 2019 13:52:14 GMT -5
The way I have understood it, is that NET is replacing RPI this year. But then we need to look at how RPI was used in the past.
1. RPI was used to rank teams, but not as a sole way of selecting teams for the NCAA tournament. hoyasaxa.com has a nice graphic on the right side that shows the Big East teams' NET rankings color coded to the RPI ranges that historically generally were considered NCAA tournament teams or bubble teams.
2. RPI was used to classify team records into quadrants. This allows the selection committee to easily compare the records and performance of various team profiles, especially with respect to a team's record against Quadrant 1 teams. As a reminder, here are the definitions of the quadrants using the NET rankings:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
There are obviously other factors that the NCAA committee considers (recent play, injuries, etc.), but the above uses of the NET rankings will help to quantify what can be characterized as a typical NCAA tournament profile.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 7, 2019 16:13:09 GMT -5
NET is up from 79 to 73 after the Providence win. A win on Saturday should definitely get us somewhere in the 60s and squarely on the bubble. According to Bracket Matrix, here are the bubble teams ahead of us and how they fared last night: 10. Nebraska (L 60-45 vs. Maryland) 11. Alabama (W 89-74 vs. Georgia) 12. Davidson (W 68-53 vs. URI) 1st 4 out. Clemson (W 65-42 @ GT) Next 4 out. Creighton (L 66-59 @ Nova) 13th team out. Georgetown (W 76-67 @ Prov.) I think that Nebraska, Ohio st and Indiana will fall out. Tonight will determine if San Francisco has at-large potential against Gonzaga. I don't feel like Davidson is a tournament team for an at large, although I really like their team they just don't have those key wins. I also think that UCF isn't a tournament team by any means, they haven't done anything to deserve it with their best win being over Northern Kentucky or Alabama. I also don't think Arizona st. makes it with how awful the Pac-12 is excluding Washington. Utah st. and Fresno st. could just fall down with losses and St. Mary's hasn't beaten anyone. Just to list a few teams on the bubble in some places just to show how weak the bubble is and how possible the at-large is. |
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 7, 2019 16:17:06 GMT -5
We are closer than we were 24 hours ago. Day by day, game by game.
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Feb 7, 2019 16:23:23 GMT -5
Finishing 3rd in the Big East with a winning conference record would go a long way.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 7, 2019 16:56:44 GMT -5
NET is up from 79 to 73 after the Providence win. A win on Saturday should definitely get us somewhere in the 60s and squarely on the bubble. According to Bracket Matrix, here are the bubble teams ahead of us and how they fared last night: 10. Nebraska (L 60-45 vs. Maryland) 11. Alabama (W 89-74 vs. Georgia) 12. Davidson (W 68-53 vs. URI) 1st 4 out. Clemson (W 65-42 @ GT) Next 4 out. Creighton (L 66-59 @ Nova) 13th team out. Georgetown (W 76-67 @ Prov.) I think that Nebraska, Ohio st and Indiana will fall out. Tonight will determine if San Francisco has at-large potential against Gonzaga. I don't feel like Davidson is a tournament team for an at large, although I really like their team they just don't have those key wins. I also think that UCF isn't a tournament team by any means, they haven't done anything to deserve it with their best win being over Northern Kentucky or Alabama. I also don't think Arizona st. makes it with how awful the Pac-12 is excluding Washington. Utah st. and Fresno st. could just fall down with losses and St. Mary's hasn't beaten anyone. Just to list a few teams on the bubble in some places just to show how weak the bubble is and how possible the at-large is. As you cited in your examples, tonight's a fairly big night for the bubble as well. 9. Ohio St. vs. Penn St. (a loss knocks them down to the cut line) 11. Indiana vs. Iowa (chance at a quality win here) 11. UCF at Houston (NET 7, RPI 4 --> huge chance for a marquee win) Next 4 out. San Francisco at Gonzaga (the marquee win their resume needs) 9th team out. Arizona vs. Washington (current P-12 leaders) 10th team out. UNC Greensboro vs. Sanford Think our win at Providence probably vaulted us up to somewhere around the Next 4 out range; it will be interesting to see where we fall before the Butler game. |
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 7, 2019 23:45:07 GMT -5
I think that Nebraska, Ohio st and Indiana will fall out. Tonight will determine if San Francisco has at-large potential against Gonzaga. I don't feel like Davidson is a tournament team for an at large, although I really like their team they just don't have those key wins. I also think that UCF isn't a tournament team by any means, they haven't done anything to deserve it with their best win being over Northern Kentucky or Alabama. I also don't think Arizona st. makes it with how awful the Pac-12 is excluding Washington. Utah st. and Fresno st. could just fall down with losses and St. Mary's hasn't beaten anyone. Just to list a few teams on the bubble in some places just to show how weak the bubble is and how possible the at-large is. As you cited in your examples, tonight's a fairly big night for the bubble as well. 9. Ohio St. vs. Penn St. (a loss knocks them down to the cut line) 11. Indiana vs. Iowa (chance at a quality win here) 11. UCF at Houston (NET 7, RPI 4 --> huge chance for a marquee win) Next 4 out. San Francisco at Gonzaga (the marquee win their resume needs) 9th team out. Arizona vs. Washington (current P-12 leaders) 10th team out. UNC Greensboro vs. Sanford Think our win at Providence probably vaulted us up to somewhere around the Next 4 out range; it will be interesting to see where we fall before the Butler game. The results of these games are as follows: 9. Ohio St. over Penn St. in a very close game 74-70 after Penn St. missed a wide open layup to tie the game 11. Indiana lost to Iowa 72-77, also was very close 11. UCF got beaten by Houston 68-77 but wasn't really that close Gonzaga absolutely destroyed San Fransisco 92-62 and eliminated them from at-large contention IMO, it's a shame because there PG is very fun to watch, he makes the right decisions even though he doesn't score or assist a lot Washington beat Arizona 67-60 UNCG beat Samford 75-67 Wofford now looks like an at large if they are unable to win their conference tournament Also, Arizona St. lost to Washington St. at home which probably pushes them out of the tournament for now and maybe even at-large contentionbarringg a victory over Washington. |
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Post by bigelephant on Feb 8, 2019 6:40:40 GMT -5
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 8, 2019 12:49:52 GMT -5
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hoyainla
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Suspended
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Post by hoyainla on Feb 9, 2019 14:33:48 GMT -5
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Feb 9, 2019 14:43:04 GMT -5
Pretty much think our only path is 3 wins at MSG. Given our depth and the parity in the conference, I have more confidence in that then us going 6-1 down the stretch.
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guru
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Post by guru on Feb 9, 2019 14:44:16 GMT -5
Definitely not a bubble team at the moment. We have tons of work to do to even be part of the conversation. Let’s not lose sight of the factthat any postseason bid is a good step for the program given its state two years ago at this time.
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hoopsmccan
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Post by hoopsmccan on Feb 9, 2019 14:55:32 GMT -5
Definitely not a bubble team at the moment. We have tons of work to do to even be part of the conversation. Let’s not lose sight of the factthat any postseason bid is a good step for the program given its state two years ago at this time. Flipping between UK/Miss St and VU/Marq and we are a two bid league and not a particularly good one. Of course, Nova will shoot over 50% from 3 in the tournament and go far. I’m convinced that the horseshoe lodged in their ass for the last past half decade or so remains. hm |
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Feb 9, 2019 15:33:47 GMT -5
Just win the next game and what will happen will happen. No need to wring hands.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 9, 2019 16:46:52 GMT -5
Need 5 of 7 it seems. Need to take one of Marquette/Nova and one of at Hall/Creighton. Winning 4 and making it is possible but unlikely. Depends on how the bubble will shake up but 5 should do. 9-9 could do so if no bubble team gets those wins but with ample opportunities left that's unlikely, accounting for bid stealers.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 9, 2019 17:06:05 GMT -5
Need 5 of 7 it seems. Need to take one of Marquette/Nova and one of at Hall/Creighton. Winning 4 and making it is possible but unlikely. Depends on how the bubble will shake up but 5 should do. 9-9 could do so if no bubble team gets those wins but with ample opportunities left that's unlikely, accounting for bid stealers. The one thing that's going for us is that the committee seems to really like teams with good road records and as of now Georgetown has one against some very good teams. So that could help our case so long as we can take 2/4 of those games. |
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Feb 9, 2019 17:12:29 GMT -5
Need 5 of 7 it seems. Need to take one of Marquette/Nova and one of at Hall/Creighton. Winning 4 and making it is possible but unlikely. Depends on how the bubble will shake up but 5 should do. 9-9 could do so if no bubble team gets those wins but with ample opportunities left that's unlikely, accounting for bid stealers. 9-9 isn’t remotely close. 10-8 might not even be close. 11 wins minimum to be even in the mix. We aren’t even considered on the bubble as is and we have only two more quality win chances left. Need to be realistic here with our resume. |
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Filo
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Post by Filo on Feb 9, 2019 17:14:19 GMT -5
This team has some decent wins and can play with anyone when all the key pieces are playing well. But, there is very little to suggest that this team will even be sniffing the bubble come March since they are unable to put together several strong games in a row.
Beating Butler at Butler and SJU at SJU was awesome, but with their performance at home, I don't think it is likely that we see more than 3 wins the rest of the way. My guesses are a split with SHU and DePaul and then maybe pick up an unexpected win somewhere.
2 games with SHU - Probable Split
NOVA - Pretty much a certain loss
@creighton - Probable loss
2 games with DePaul - Probable Split
@marquette - Definite Loss (last game was close but remember, Howard was out)
All in all, while it is frustrating given the positive glimpses we have seen, and I am so tired of seeing this program struggle mightily, I am somewhat encouraged and think things are moving in the right direction.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 9, 2019 17:47:05 GMT -5
Yeah even dreaming about 5 or 6 out of seven for a team that is under .500 more than halfway through the conference schedule is pie-in-the-sky kind of stuff. Gotta have the mindset that 9 or even 8 conference wins is a step in the right direction. And if we are going to dream, make it that we will improve enough to somehow string together 3 straight solid games in NYC and sneak in that way.
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