Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,912
|
Post by Big Dog on Apr 5, 2017 13:51:54 GMT -5
The cupboard is clearly more bare to my eyes than in 2004. Antwan Walker is not Jeff, Roy and JWall. I like Mosely's upside (his toughness, physical maturity, especially on defense and I think his assist/turnover ratio had to be among the best on the team), and the potential of Govan, Agau and Derrickson (who was not at the presser by the way -- class?), but they aren't Cook, Bowman and Owens. I hope for the NCAAs next year, but realistically, I don't see it happening until year 3 or 4 and that's assuming Patrick signs some good classes for 2018 and 19. Keep in mind the benefit of hindsight. JT3 made Cook, Bowman, and Owens substantially better offensive players within the span of a year. 2004 (Esherick): Offensive efficiency ratings: Bowman: 93.4 Cook: 88.7 Owens: 109.0 2005 (JT3): Offensive efficiency ratings: Bowman: 112.4 Cook: 102.3 Owens: 124.8 Obviously, this is only one stat, but JT3 made an enormous difference with these three guys, making them substantially better year-over-year. Can Ewing do that with Derrickson, Govan, Johnson, etc.? I don't know, but obviously that would be a major step toward our improvement. Where can I find these statistics?
|
|
|
Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Apr 5, 2017 13:58:24 GMT -5
Where can I find these statistics? I pulled them from KenPom.com, but you need a subscription to get the more specific data (well worth it in my opinion). While their data doesn't go as far back, Sports Reference does keep similar stats (they're not always identical, likely just because the play-by-play data can sometimes be inaccurate and thus differ depending on what is used to generate the stats) for current teams and it is free: www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/georgetown/2017.html(It's in the "Per 100 Poss" table).
|
|
Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,912
|
Post by Big Dog on Apr 5, 2017 14:25:07 GMT -5
Where can I find these statistics? I pulled them from KenPom.com, but you need a subscription to get the more specific data (well worth it in my opinion). While their data doesn't go as far back, Sports Reference does keep similar stats (they're not always identical, likely just because the play-by-play data can sometimes be inaccurate and thus differ depending on what is used to generate the stats) for current teams and it is free: www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/georgetown/2017.html(It's in the "Per 100 Poss" table). Thanks. It kills me that KenPom began in 2002. I'm convinced that if he had the numbers and if KenPom had existed and been respected at the time as it is now, the 2001 Hoyas (RPI #47 and the weakest non-conference schedule you can imagine) would have missed the tournament altogether.
|
|
TC
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 9,459
|
Post by TC on Apr 5, 2017 14:40:59 GMT -5
Thanks. It kills me that KenPom began in 2002. I'm convinced that if he had the numbers and if KenPom had existed and been respected at the time as it is now, the 2001 Hoyas (RPI #47 and the weakest non-conference schedule you can imagine) would have missed the tournament altogether. I'm still convinced we scheduled ourselves out of the 2002 tournament : www.rotowatch.com/rpi.html
|
|
royski
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,296
|
Post by royski on Apr 5, 2017 14:59:32 GMT -5
I firmly believe that all college coaches are owed 4 years. That's how long it takes for them to get their own players in there, and show what they can do with them. Given that, I expect NCAA bids at the end of that process, or we need to find someone else that can do that. Ideally, I want to see a tournament bid in year 3 and have recruiting humming at that point. My line for termination is if we don't go to the tournament in any of the next 4 years, we need a new coach immediately. I believe that's fair.
|
|
Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,912
|
Post by Big Dog on Apr 5, 2017 15:01:36 GMT -5
Thanks. It kills me that KenPom began in 2002. I'm convinced that if he had the numbers and if KenPom had existed and been respected at the time as it is now, the 2001 Hoyas (RPI #47 and the weakest non-conference schedule you can imagine) would have missed the tournament altogether. I'm still convinced we scheduled ourselves out of the 2002 tournament : www.rotowatch.com/rpi.htmlEsh also coached us out. The 2002 team was Esh's best team by a mile because Michael Sweetney was a superstar. In our 7 regular season conference losses, we were outscored in regulation time by a TOTAL of 11 points, 6 of which came in the first conference game against Miami. In the other six we lost in OT three times (including the 4OT Notre Dame game) and by 1 point 3 times. The HoyaTalk board meltdowns that year were epic (and deserved--Esh was totally inept as a game tactician). My "favorite" (which I attended and is seared into the "disgust" section of my memory bank) was the Connecticut loss, which DFW described as follows: The Hoyas closed to one on a pair of Kevin Braswell free throws, and UConn regains possession with 39.7 seconds to play, up one.
Then, in a decision already receiving snickers around the league, Esherick opts not to foul the Huskies and defend for a last possession. The Huskies dutifully oblige, and the Hoyas actually get what they want--a UConn miss and the ball...only that there were now less than four seconds to play. Kevin Braswell races down the floor, not calling timeout, and has one furtive look at the basket, only to pass to Gerald Riley whose shot is well after the buzzer.
|
|
Elvado
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,080
|
Post by Elvado on Apr 5, 2017 18:38:42 GMT -5
Esh also coached us out. The 2002 team was Esh's best team by a mile because Michael Sweetney was a superstar. In our 7 regular season conference losses, we were outscored in regulation time by a TOTAL of 11 points, 6 of which came in the first conference game against Miami. In the other six we lost in OT three times (including the 4OT Notre Dame game) and by 1 point 3 times. The HoyaTalk board meltdowns that year were epic (and deserved--Esh was totally inept as a game tactician). My "favorite" (which I attended and is seared into the "disgust" section of my memory bank) was the Connecticut loss, which DFW described as follows: The Hoyas closed to one on a pair of Kevin Braswell free throws, and UConn regains possession with 39.7 seconds to play, up one.
Then, in a decision already receiving snickers around the league, Esherick opts not to foul the Huskies and defend for a last possession. The Huskies dutifully oblige, and the Hoyas actually get what they want--a UConn miss and the ball...only that there were now less than four seconds to play. Kevin Braswell races down the floor, not calling timeout, and has one furtive look at the basket, only to pass to Gerald Riley whose shot is well after the buzzer.Go easy on the Esh there; at least they were playing 5 on 5...
|
|
HoyaSC
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 514
|
Post by HoyaSC on Apr 5, 2017 19:09:14 GMT -5
It's amazing to me after listening to six years of people setting in-tournament failure as a reason for firing JT3 that absolutely no one is willing to step up and set it as a benchmark for Patrick Ewing's success. My benchmark for tournament success would be consistently playing up to seed. If you're a 2, you should lose in the Elite Eight. Is a 2 going to lose to a 3 in the Sweet Sixteen? Yes, and that is not hotseat material. A 2 losing to a 15 is a problem and questions should be asked, but the team obviously did something right to get that 2 in the first place. But not consistently playing up to seed--which was JTIII's problem--means something is wrong. The reasons for that have been debated extensively and don't need to be repeated. So I want consistent regular season success followed by NCAA tournaments that, in most years, mirror the level of success had during the season. And the tournament being a "crapshoot" should work both ways. Some seasons you're going to lose as a 2 to a 7. But other seasons, when you're a 5, 6, 7 you should sneak into the second weekend. Under JTIII, the crapshoot was mostly just crap.
|
|
Eurostar
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,094
|
Post by Eurostar on Apr 5, 2017 19:09:31 GMT -5
My "favorite" (which I attended and is seared into the "disgust" section of my memory bank) was the Connecticut loss, which DFW described as follows: The Hoyas closed to one on a pair of Kevin Braswell free throws, and UConn regains possession with 39.7 seconds to play, up one.
Then, in a decision already receiving snickers around the league, Esherick opts not to foul the Huskies and defend for a last possession. The Huskies dutifully oblige, and the Hoyas actually get what they want--a UConn miss and the ball...only that there were now less than four seconds to play. Kevin Braswell races down the floor, not calling timeout, and has one furtive look at the basket, only to pass to Gerald Riley whose shot is well after the buzzer.I remember Caron Butler dribbling the ball at the top of the key, wondering why we were not fouling. I remember the 4OT game versus ND where Ryan Humphrey played about the last 30 minutes straight with 4 fouls, and we barely went after him to attempt to foul him out.
|
|
bamahoya11
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,831
|
Post by bamahoya11 on Apr 5, 2017 19:26:34 GMT -5
My long term expectation for the program is to consistently make the tournament, which I would say means 8 out of 10 years, with a second weekend appearance 2-4 times in that span. I think those are basic benchmarks for a top 15-20 program, and that's what I see us as capable of.
It'll take us a while to get there. In terms of benchmarks, I would give Ewing 6 years to show he can get us to that level. That doesn't mean that I expect us to be on that level immediately, but I think 6 years is plenty of time to show he can build us to that level, whether it's through a couple deep runs in his first six years or showing he can make the field consistently. At that time, we can really assess where we are. I would condense that period only if we had three terrible seasons in a row (fewer than 10 wins) or had some sort of scandal.
Breaking it down more, I think this year and next are really a wash. Ewing has made clear that he's not planning to offer folks just to offer them in year one, and I actually think that's smart. All the folks wanting us to win in year one are being really optimistic. We are a bad team that lost our two best players. Marcus and Govan might grow into capable starters, but their liabilities right now would relegate them to the bench on most good teams. 2018 recruiting is also going strong, so I think you have to more or less write off next year too. After that, I would like to see some improvement (of course, earlier improvement would also be great).
One final point, though, I find the perspective of some who want a quick improvement or hot seat intriguing, especially among those who were pro Ewing. I've tried to remain positive, but I certainly am not happy with how this search went. If Ewing struggles, I will be very reluctant to support a change unless it's clear to me that a critical mass of the fan base and administration are willing to go in a completely new direction. The last thing I would support is a search for the next Georgetown alum to take over the program. Now, none of this is Ewing's fault. So as I see it, we have who we have. We should support him and hope he can do this. And if he can't get it done, I think that's more or less the program we have.
|
|
vv83
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,329
Member is Online
|
Post by vv83 on Apr 5, 2017 20:47:52 GMT -5
My "favorite" (which I attended and is seared into the "disgust" section of my memory bank) was the Connecticut loss, which DFW described as follows: The Hoyas closed to one on a pair of Kevin Braswell free throws, and UConn regains possession with 39.7 seconds to play, up one.
Then, in a decision already receiving snickers around the league, Esherick opts not to foul the Huskies and defend for a last possession. The Huskies dutifully oblige, and the Hoyas actually get what they want--a UConn miss and the ball...only that there were now less than four seconds to play. Kevin Braswell races down the floor, not calling timeout, and has one furtive look at the basket, only to pass to Gerald Riley whose shot is well after the buzzer.I remember Caron Butler dribbling the ball at the top of the key, wondering why we were not fouling. I remember the 4OT game versus ND where Ryan Humphrey played about the last 30 minutes straight with 4 fouls, and we barely went after him to attempt to foul him out. When I realized we were not going to foul in the Uconn game, I got up and started leaving the arena while Uconn was dribbling away the clock. That was the moment I gave up on Esherick.
|
|
Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,912
|
Post by Big Dog on Apr 5, 2017 23:24:02 GMT -5
My "favorite" (which I attended and is seared into the "disgust" section of my memory bank) was the Connecticut loss, which DFW described as follows: The Hoyas closed to one on a pair of Kevin Braswell free throws, and UConn regains possession with 39.7 seconds to play, up one.
Then, in a decision already receiving snickers around the league, Esherick opts not to foul the Huskies and defend for a last possession. The Huskies dutifully oblige, and the Hoyas actually get what they want--a UConn miss and the ball...only that there were now less than four seconds to play. Kevin Braswell races down the floor, not calling timeout, and has one furtive look at the basket, only to pass to Gerald Riley whose shot is well after the buzzer.I remember Caron Butler dribbling the ball at the top of the key, wondering why we were not fouling. I remember the 4OT game versus ND where Ryan Humphrey played about the last 30 minutes straight with 4 fouls, and we barely went after him to attempt to foul him out. Don't forget that we had the ball for the final shot in a tie game at the end of each of the first 3 OTs and came away with nothing. I'm not sure Sweets touched the ball on any of those possessions.
|
|
Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,912
|
Post by Big Dog on Apr 5, 2017 23:30:24 GMT -5
I remember Caron Butler dribbling the ball at the top of the key, wondering why we were not fouling. I remember the 4OT game versus ND where Ryan Humphrey played about the last 30 minutes straight with 4 fouls, and we barely went after him to attempt to foul him out. When I realized we were not going to foul in the Uconn game, I got up and started leaving the arena while Uconn was dribbling away the clock. That was the moment I gave up on Esherick. You can actually get a flavor of the HoyaTalk fury and debate here because for some reason the internet has chosen to preserve for posterity the top page of HoyaTalk from February 21, 2002--2 days after the UConn debacle: web.archive.org/web/20020221210318/http://www.sportsonly.com/boards/gtown/Oh what I would give to be able to read the actual posts underneath those links in each thread. I'll always remember that GIGAFAN (and his buddy MEGAFAN--what happened to that guy?) was Esherick's last and most dedicated defender.
|
|
|
Post by cosmopolitanhoya on Apr 5, 2017 23:33:21 GMT -5
Simple expectations:
If you are willing to spend like top 10 programs, then get top 10 results.
No more excuses about how we are the only program running a clean program; no more excuses about how some 5 star players will not qualify academically, while they qualify at Duke and Stanford. No more excuses about how Georgetown is not relevant.
Get S done.
Simple.
|
|
MEGAFAN
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 649
|
Post by MEGAFAN on Apr 6, 2017 8:59:45 GMT -5
When I realized we were not going to foul in the Uconn game, I got up and started leaving the arena while Uconn was dribbling away the clock. That was the moment I gave up on Esherick. You can actually get a flavor of the HoyaTalk fury and debate here because for some reason the internet has chosen to preserve for posterity the top page of HoyaTalk from February 21, 2002--2 days after the UConn debacle: web.archive.org/web/20020221210318/http://www.sportsonly.com/boards/gtown/Oh what I would give to be able to read the actual posts underneath those links in each thread. I'll always remember that GIGAFAN (and his buddy MEGAFAN--what happened to that guy?) was Esherick's last and most dedicated defender. I'm here and never left. Just been relegated to mostly a lurker these days... I gave Esh many chances, but when he made that comment about being untouchable at Georgetown, I realized that he had to go. And no one was a bigger proponent of hiring JT III than me. I went on the record before he was hired stating that I thought he was the single best coach we could get for this program. It looked to be quite prescient, but alas, what started with so much promise (and results), fizzled into a painful last few years. But that's the past, and it's time to focus on the VERY BRIGHT future ahead of us. I became a Georgetown fan because of my all-time favorite Knick Patrick Ewing. And that was years before I realized I would become a Hoya. Allen Iverson closed the deal in 1995 when I graduated from high school and decided on Georgetown,, but Ewing was responsible for me falling in love with the game of basketball, and in turn becoming a lifelong Knicks and Hoyas fan. It will not be easy, but it's time for all of you naysayers to bite your collective tongues, and to book your tickets (early), because the non-stop express train to MEGAFANLAND is warming up its engines, and seats are selling out fast, so ALL ABOARD!!! #WeAreGeorgetown #HoyaSaxa
|
|
Cambridge
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Canes Pugnaces
Posts: 5,304
|
Post by Cambridge on Apr 6, 2017 11:06:03 GMT -5
Esh also coached us out. The 2002 team was Esh's best team by a mile because Michael Sweetney was a superstar. In our 7 regular season conference losses, we were outscored in regulation time by a TOTAL of 11 points, 6 of which came in the first conference game against Miami. In the other six we lost in OT three times (including the 4OT Notre Dame game) and by 1 point 3 times. The HoyaTalk board meltdowns that year were epic (and deserved--Esh was totally inept as a game tactician). My "favorite" (which I attended and is seared into the "disgust" section of my memory bank) was the Connecticut loss, which DFW described as follows: The Hoyas closed to one on a pair of Kevin Braswell free throws, and UConn regains possession with 39.7 seconds to play, up one.
Then, in a decision already receiving snickers around the league, Esherick opts not to foul the Huskies and defend for a last possession. The Huskies dutifully oblige, and the Hoyas actually get what they want--a UConn miss and the ball...only that there were now less than four seconds to play. Kevin Braswell races down the floor, not calling timeout, and has one furtive look at the basket, only to pass to Gerald Riley whose shot is well after the buzzer.God...that game...so painful.
|
|
drquigley
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,386
|
Post by drquigley on Apr 6, 2017 18:41:13 GMT -5
I remember Caron Butler dribbling the ball at the top of the key, wondering why we were not fouling. I remember the 4OT game versus ND where Ryan Humphrey played about the last 30 minutes straight with 4 fouls, and we barely went after him to attempt to foul him out. When I realized we were not going to foul in the Uconn game, I got up and started leaving the arena while Uconn was dribbling away the clock. That was the moment I gave up on Esherick. I was watching at a bar in Philly. No Hoya fans, or haters, there just guys who like to drink and watch college basketball. As the last 39 seconds unfolded the men at the bar at first were quietly incredulous. Then they (and I) started to yell at the screen. And after the debacle ended people were laughing at Esherick and shaking their heads. One guy actually came up to me and offered condolences. Like most of you that was it for me and Esh. I think the most immediate expectation for PE would be for him to find 2-3 quality recruits. Getting Waters back would be an unbelievable coup. Of course getting him back would be a huge punch in the gut to JT3.
|
|
prhoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 23,358
|
Post by prhoya on Apr 6, 2017 20:09:05 GMT -5
When I realized we were not going to foul in the Uconn game, I got up and started leaving the arena while Uconn was dribbling away the clock. That was the moment I gave up on Esherick. I was watching at a bar in Philly. No Hoya fans, or haters, there just guys who like to drink and watch college basketball. As the last 39 seconds unfolded the men at the bar at first were quietly incredulous. Then they (and I) started to yell at the screen. And after the debacle ended people were laughing at Esherick and shaking their heads. One guy actually came up to me and offered condolences. Like most of you that was it for me and Esh. That's exactly what happened to me with this season's Maryland game.
|
|
This Just In
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Bold Prediction: The Hoyas will win at least 1 BE game in 2023.
Posts: 10,592
|
Post by This Just In on Apr 7, 2017 9:59:47 GMT -5
I was watching at a bar in Philly. No Hoya fans, or haters, there just guys who like to drink and watch college basketball. As the last 39 seconds unfolded the men at the bar at first were quietly incredulous. Then they (and I) started to yell at the screen. And after the debacle ended people were laughing at Esherick and shaking their heads. One guy actually came up to me and offered condolences. Like most of you that was it for me and Esh. That's exactly what happened to me with this season's Maryland game. Can you expand on what the issue was with the Maryland game that gave you a change of heart.
|
|
drquigley
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,386
|
Post by drquigley on Apr 7, 2017 14:01:32 GMT -5
That's exactly what happened to me with this season's Maryland game. Can you expand on what the issue was with the Maryland game that gave you a change of heart. I'm assuming you are being facetious. I think a good yardstick for when it's time for a coaching change is when strangers in bars come up to you and offer sympathy for how terrible your team is playing.
|
|