vv83
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Post by vv83 on Feb 14, 2016 21:32:55 GMT -5
To me this team is different than the other III teams that didn't make the tourney. Can't put my finger on it. But, it really wouldn't surprise me if we won the next 3 games. to me the difference is clear. The III teams that went to the NIT lacked talent in critical areas, where this team doesn't lack for talent in many spots. For whatever reason this team has underachieved, and I feel like this is the first III team to do so. We've had III teams underachieve in tournament settings to be sure. But I don't think we've had one do so for an entire season This team has plenty of talent, but also a few glaring defects: -guards who struggle badly to keep their man out of the lane, and who are not quick enough with the ball to get into the lane themselves -bigs without the lateral foot quickness to defend the pick and roll, and who struggle to defend the rim without fouling -just terrible passing instincts outside of maybe DSR and Mourning These are the fundamental problems that lie at the root of most of our poor stretches of play this year. The way the game is officiated now has made these issues even more problematic than they may have been in the past Having DSR as your best player seems to be a significant part of the guard issue. Note that our ability to defend without fouling has been awful for the past three years - the three years that DSR played major minutes. This problem is of course not all on him - the coaching staff clearly has not been effective in teaching our guys how to defend without fouling under the new rules enforcement that have also been in place for the three years of incessant Hoya fouling. DSR usually works hard on D, and he makes some good plays due to having good basketball instincts. But when one of your guards is really bad at on-ball defense, that can set up a chin reaction that too often breaks down the entire defensive scheme, which leads to a lot of the fouling. So - while this year's team may be more talented than the other JTIII NIT teams, I do think that these talent deficits have played a big role in our struggles this year. But there may be hope for the future. We are trying to recruit guards who are quick enough to defend on ball and get into the lane on offense - hopefully Mosely begins to bring some of this next year, and a guy like Lykes (or another guard somewhat similar to him) can add to our guard quickness the following year. Peak has the tools to play good D, and seems to be cutting down on the fouling a bit as the year progresses. Govan is young and learning, he is not a bad athlete. Hopefully he can defend the PnR/rim better as time goes on - he did some of his best PnR defensive work in the second half of the providence game, although he still fouled way, way too much. Maybe Agau can help with big man D next year. Maybe Mourning can continue to gain strength and contribute more - he is already a good PnR defender, but his lack of strength hurts his rebounding/post defense. Hopefully White is healthy next year and improves our front court passing dramatically. Mourning is already a good front court passer, and Agau looked like a very good passer in Kenner league play last summer. Mosely is a solid passer on the HS level - not flashy, but a good feel for making the right pass in transition and when he gets into the lane. Govan even has good passing instincts, but still makes bad passing decisions too often - something that can improve with experience. We have issues, but we also have some potential solutions moving forward. Unfortunately they are not solutions that can help in the short term. But that ship has pretty much sailed, so rather than being frustrated about this year's problems, I would rather look forward to next year's possibilities!
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FLHoya
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Post by FLHoya on Feb 14, 2016 21:43:09 GMT -5
Unbelievable. There's no sane way to project this team finishing 4-1 down the stretch. It's far more likely that we end this season with a losing record and our season is finished directly after a cameo appearance at the BET. If you want to put some fancy stats behind it, here's the RPIForecast chart as of today (Record/Expected RPI/Probability): 19-12 41.2 0.59% 18-13 53.0 7.32% 17-14 65.2 25.36% 16-15 75.9 36.96% 15-16 87.2 23.70% 14-17 100.4 6.06% (This is of course pre-BET) www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Georgetown.html
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Post by daytonahoya31 on Feb 15, 2016 0:34:59 GMT -5
to me the difference is clear. The III teams that went to the NIT lacked talent in critical areas, where this team doesn't lack for talent in many spots. For whatever reason this team has underachieved, and I feel like this is the first III team to do so. We've had III teams underachieve in tournament settings to be sure. But I don't think we've had one do so for an entire season This team has plenty of talent, but also a few glaring defects: -guards who struggle badly to keep their man out of the lane, and who are not quick enough with the ball to get into the lane themselves -bigs without the lateral foot quickness to defend the pick and roll, and who struggle to defend the rim without fouling -just terrible passing instincts outside of maybe DSR and Mourning These are the fundamental problems that lie at the root of most of our poor stretches of play this year. The way the game is officiated now has made these issues even more problematic than they may have been in the past Having DSR as your best player seems to be a significant part of the guard issue. Note that our ability to defend without fouling has been awful for the past three years - the three years that DSR played major minutes. This problem is of course not all on him - the coaching staff clearly has not been effective in teaching our guys how to defend without fouling under the new rules enforcement that have also been in place for the three years of incessant Hoya fouling. DSR usually works hard on D, and he makes some good plays due to having good basketball instincts. But when one of your guards is really bad at on-ball defense, that can set up a chin reaction that too often breaks down the entire defensive scheme, which leads to a lot of the fouling. So - while this year's team may be more talented than the other JTIII NIT teams, I do think that these talent deficits have played a big role in our struggles this year. But there may be hope for the future. We are trying to recruit guards who are quick enough to defend on ball and get into the lane on offense - hopefully Mosely begins to bring some of this next year, and a guy like Lykes (or another guard somewhat similar to him) can add to our guard quickness the following year. Peak has the tools to play good D, and seems to be cutting down on the fouling a bit as the year progresses. Govan is young and learning, he is not a bad athlete. Hopefully he can defend the PnR/rim better as time goes on - he did some of his best PnR defensive work in the second half of the providence game, although he still fouled way, way too much. Maybe Agau can help with big man D next year. Maybe Mourning can continue to gain strength and contribute more - he is already a good PnR defender, but his lack of strength hurts his rebounding/post defense. Hopefully White is healthy next year and improves our front court passing dramatically. Mourning is already a good front court passer, and Agau looked like a very good passer in Kenner league play last summer. Mosely is a solid passer on the HS level - not flashy, but a good feel for making the right pass in transition and when he gets into the lane. Govan even has good passing instincts, but still makes bad passing decisions too often - something that can improve with experience. We have issues, but we also have some potential solutions moving forward. Unfortunately they are not solutions that can help in the short term. But that ship has pretty much sailed, so rather than being frustrated about this year's problems, I would rather look forward to next year's possibilities! Agreed 100 percent with everything you said. To put it more specifically, this team misses Jabril more than anyone thought. And I thought we'd miss Jabril plenty. But our inability to contain on the perimeter has been an absolute killer for us this season
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Feb 15, 2016 8:37:00 GMT -5
to me the difference is clear. The III teams that went to the NIT lacked talent in critical areas, where this team doesn't lack for talent in many spots. For whatever reason this team has underachieved, and I feel like this is the first III team to do so. We've had III teams underachieve in tournament settings to be sure. But I don't think we've had one do so for an entire season This team has plenty of talent, but also a few glaring defects: -guards who struggle badly to keep their man out of the lane, and who are not quick enough with the ball to get into the lane themselves -bigs without the lateral foot quickness to defend the pick and roll, and who struggle to defend the rim without fouling - terrible passing instincts outside of maybe DSR and MourningThese are the fundamental problems that lie at the root of most of our poor stretches of play this year. The way the game is officiated now has made these issues even more problematic than they may have been in the past Having DSR as your best player seems to be a significant part of the guard issue. Note that our ability to defend without fouling has been awful for the past three years - the three years that DSR played major minutes. This problem is of course not all on him - the coaching staff clearly has not been effective in teaching our guys how to defend without fouling under the new rules enforcement that have also been in place for the three years of incessant Hoya fouling. DSR usually works hard on D, and he makes some good plays due to having good basketball instincts. But when one of your guards is really bad at on-ball defense, that can set up a chin reaction that too often breaks down the entire defensive scheme, which leads to a lot of the fouling. So - while this year's team may be more talented than the other JTIII NIT teams, I do think that these talent deficits have played a big role in our struggles this year. But there may be hope for the future. We are trying to recruit guards who are quick enough to defend on ball and get into the lane on offense - hopefully Mosely begins to bring some of this next year, and a guy like Lykes (or another guard somewhat similar to him) can add to our guard quickness the following year. Peak has the tools to play good D, and seems to be cutting down on the fouling a bit as the year progresses. Govan is young and learning, he is not a bad athlete. Hopefully he can defend the PnR/rim better as time goes on - he did some of his best PnR defensive work in the second half of the providence game, although he still fouled way, way too much. Maybe Agau can help with big man D next year. Maybe Mourning can continue to gain strength and contribute more - he is already a good PnR defender, but his lack of strength hurts his rebounding/post defense. Hopefully White is healthy next year and improves our front court passing dramatically. Mourning is already a good front court passer, and Agau looked like a very good passer in Kenner league play last summer. Mosely is a solid passer on the HS level - not flashy, but a good feel for making the right pass in transition and when he gets into the lane. Govan even has good passing instincts, but still makes bad passing decisions too often - something that can improve with experience. We have issues, but we also have some potential solutions moving forward. Unfortunately they are not solutions that can help in the short term. But that ship has pretty much sailed, so rather than being frustrated about this year's problems, I would rather look forward to next year's possibilities! DSR is a good passer in PnR/Screen situations but I disagree on how instinctive his passing is especially in the open court.. Late in Saturdays game he made a great defensive play by taking the ball away from Bentil in the lane, as he turns to start up court LJ is clearly ahead of the defense by a step or so. All he has to do is lay the ball out front & let LJ go get it but instead he dribbles 2 more times(the 3rd dribble went AWAY from the Basket) & was fouled by Dunn.. In fairness G'town made out on the possession because Marcus was fouled on a 3 attempt & hit all 3 FT's but it was a terrible basketball play.. DSR seems to always want to dribble in transition situations as opposed to kicking the ball ahead, I think that next years team will improve a lot in this area..
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Feb 15, 2016 8:58:21 GMT -5
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Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 15, 2016 9:15:04 GMT -5
Unbelievable. There's no sane way to project this team finishing 4-1 down the stretch. It's far more likely that we end this season with a losing record and our season is finished directly after a cameo appearance at the BET. If you want to put some fancy stats behind it, here's the RPIForecast chart as of today (Record/Expected RPI/Probability): 19-12 41.2 0.59% 18-13 53.0 7.32% 17-14 65.2 25.36% 16-15 75.9 36.96% 15-16 87.2 23.70% 14-17 100.4 6.06% (This is of course pre-BET) www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Georgetown.htmlFor sure, all that is true statistically. The odds are slim. But, what I hang my hat on in terms of slim hope, is this: Three of our games are against the 49, 64, and 116 teams in the RPI (SH, Butler, Marquette). Against teams in that range (40-125), we are 5-4 with an average margin of victory/defeat of 0. That is, without really any improvement at all -- based entirely on the drek we've seen this year -- those three games are dead even. Can we win all three? I don't know. The odds of winning all three 50/50 games is obviously not terrific. But it's not crazy either. Particularly if you think that the team might function better overall with Mourning, or if LJ continues to play at a very high level, or if Ike (who has improved the last couple games) turns it on just a bit further, or if DSR goes off for a game or two. That's a lot of "ifs." I get it. And even with those three, we've still got to steal one from a very good team (either at Nova, home to X, or against either of those teams in a BET semi after winning a BET quarter). It's the need to win that one that makes the odds above as low as they are. But if you put that final tough win in a vacuum, it's not totally crazy. I don't think our chances are mush if you said "you need to find one win in three tries against X or Nova."
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joey0403p
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Post by joey0403p on Feb 15, 2016 9:56:39 GMT -5
We aren't making the ncaas this year. And I'd suggest we are more likely to miss the nit than to make it.
It's truly a dark year. Gotta assume there will be some transfers right? I mean I hope not. But don't teams normally get transfers in situations like this?
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Feb 15, 2016 10:00:17 GMT -5
If you want to put some fancy stats behind it, here's the RPIForecast chart as of today (Record/Expected RPI/Probability): 19-12 41.2 0.59% 18-13 53.0 7.32% 17-14 65.2 25.36% 16-15 75.9 36.96% 15-16 87.2 23.70% 14-17 100.4 6.06% (This is of course pre-BET) www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Georgetown.htmlFor sure, all that is true statistically. The odds are slim. But, what I hang my hat on in terms of slim hope, is this: Three of our games are against the 49, 64, and 116 teams in the RPI (SH, Butler, Marquette). Against teams in that range (40-125), we are 5-4 with an average margin of victory/defeat of 0. That is, without really any improvement at all -- based entirely on the drek we've seen this year -- those three games are dead even. Can we win all three? I don't know. The odds of winning all three 50/50 games is obviously not terrific. But it's not crazy either. Particularly if you think that the team might function better overall with Mourning, or if LJ continues to play at a very high level, or if Ike (who has improved the last couple games) turns it on just a bit further, or if DSR goes off for a game or two. That's a lot of "ifs." I get it. And even with those three, we've still got to steal one from a very good team (either at Nova, home to X, or against either of those teams in a BET semi after winning a BET quarter). It's the need to win that one that makes the odds above as low as they are. But if you put that final tough win in a vacuum, it's not totally crazy. I don't think our chances are mush if you said "you need to find one win in three tries against X or Nova." I agree. We are not operating in a vacuum. Our BE opponents, especially Creighton and Seton Hall can very easily lose 2 or 3 of their next 5-6 games. I posted earlier that if they do and if we go 4-1 we could finish 3rd in the BE this year. That and 2 wins in the BET get us in. Sure, a lot to hope for but if we can come back from 12 points down in the last 3 minutes to beat Creighton and nearly come back from 26 points down against Providence I think it fair to say that nothing this team does would surprise me.
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Post by professorhoya on Feb 15, 2016 11:11:00 GMT -5
We aren't making the ncaas this year. And I'd suggest we are more likely to miss the nit than to make it. It's truly a dark year. Gotta assume there will be some transfers right? I mean I hope not. But don't teams normally get transfers in situations like this? You do know that you are not allowed to talk about transfers under the board rules.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 15, 2016 11:34:58 GMT -5
Transfers happen when guys think they deserve minutes and don't get them. Rarely do transfers happen when guys play. Our past transfers, Domingo, Sanford, Bennimon, Mischerakov, Wattad, Thornton, Rivers, Spann, Guibunda, Egerson, Bolden all had hints of playing time being the issue. I don't see anyone this year where playing time is the issue. The Grandstaff transfer from Ohio state is puzzling because he was playing but I think those are the exception.
With a one person recruiting class and three seniors leaving, the minutes that Hayes & DSR give up will be filled by the Govan/Mourning pairing (maybe some Agau & Derrickson) and DSR minutes will be taken by a combination of Campbell, Peak (if he doesn't foul), White, Johnson & Mosely. The main issue I see next year is way too many guys that can play the 3/4 slot and not enough at the 1 and true 2 spot.
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joey0403p
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Post by joey0403p on Feb 15, 2016 13:05:46 GMT -5
We aren't making the ncaas this year. And I'd suggest we are more likely to miss the nit than to make it. It's truly a dark year. Gotta assume there will be some transfers right? I mean I hope not. But don't teams normally get transfers in situations like this? You do know that you are not allowed to talk about transfers under the board rules. We can't talk about the risk of transfers in a season that has been bad? I'm not speculating on any one person or people. Nor do I hope anything but the best for our guys. I understand board rules but thanks for being super condescending.
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hoyazeke
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Post by hoyazeke on Feb 15, 2016 20:53:38 GMT -5
The crazy thing is that we still have two Top 10 teams left on our schedule (Xavier in DC and Nova in Philly). If we beat X and are respectable against Nova I think we make the tourney as long as we don't lose any other games. Maybe we need one win in the BE tourney...........Man I really believe that this team would do well in the NCAA tourney...............I know...."Crazy Talk"..........
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Post by professorhoya on Feb 15, 2016 21:30:54 GMT -5
You do know that you are not allowed to talk about transfers under the board rules. We can't talk about the risk of transfers in a season that has been bad? I'm not speculating on any one person or people. Nor do I hope anything but the best for our guys. I understand board rules but thanks for being super condescending. Then why even bring it up if you knew the rule.
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 16, 2016 13:21:34 GMT -5
The crazy thing is that we still have two Top 10 teams left on our schedule (Xavier in DC and Nova in Philly). If we beat X and are respectable against Nova I think we make the tourney as long as we don't lose any other games. Maybe we need one win in the BE tourney...........Man I really believe that this team would do well in the NCAA tourney...............I know...."Crazy Talk".......... In this scenario, do we beat Butler, Seton Hall and Marquette as well as Xavier? If so, I think we would still need a good showing at the BET. At the moment, we aren't even on the bubble.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 16, 2016 14:34:43 GMT -5
I think this thread is "on-hold" unless we win the next 3 home games.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 16, 2016 15:29:24 GMT -5
I think this thread is "on-hold" unless we win the next 3 home games. Yeah, I would admit that if we lose any of these next 3, it's over except for the BET. We are too far off of the bubble to drop a game in the next 2 weeks. But, the good news is that next 3 games are at home, and I also like that they are spread out. With a short bench and tired freshmen, we need it.
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joey0403p
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Post by joey0403p on Feb 16, 2016 18:32:20 GMT -5
We can't talk about the risk of transfers in a season that has been bad? I'm not speculating on any one person or people. Nor do I hope anything but the best for our guys. I understand board rules but thanks for being super condescending. Then why even bring it up if you knew the rule. Because it's a risk / concern after a year like this. Or rather I was asking others opinions of people thought we were at risk of losing people. The rule exists so we don't say "Devendorf should transfer because he is a terrible person" or "wouldn't it be great if we got Scottie Reynolds scholarship back if he transfers because he smells" or "fill in the blank isn't a criminal like melo, so can't we tell melo to transfer so we have a spot for fill in the blank" The rule doesn't preclude us from saying geez I hope we don't lose people because of losses. I thought the response saying minutes usually drive transfers (or have historically) rather than losses was useful. mods, if I'm wrong, sorry. Let me know.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Feb 16, 2016 19:07:24 GMT -5
Then why even bring it up if you knew the rule. Because it's a risk / concern after a year like this. Or rather I was asking others opinions of people thought we were at risk of losing people. The rule exists so we don't say "Devendorf should transfer because he is a terrible person" or "wouldn't it be great if we got Scottie Reynolds scholarship back if he transfers because he smells" or "fill in the blank isn't a criminal like melo, so can't we tell melo to transfer so we have a spot for fill in the blank" The rule doesn't preclude us from saying geez I hope we don't lose people because of losses. I thought the response saying minutes usually drive transfers (or have historically) rather than losses was useful. mods, if I'm wrong, sorry. Let me know. joey, IMO, all players should be happy with the pt they have received this year. Maybe Mourning was not, but that has changed out of need. With the loss of DSR and Hayes, pt next year is up for grabs. Add that to our foul troubles and everyone, including Mosley, will get to play out of need. Maybe a spring recruit is added and changes the numbers. If healhy, White will play his 25+ minutes. I'm not going to convince myself that Akoy is ready to go because we've gotten our hopes smashed too many times. Until then, I'm setting the Akoy bar at Level Moses.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 16, 2016 21:01:04 GMT -5
This isn't ncaa related directly but with butler about to beat Creighton tonight there is still a real shot the Hoyas could finish third in the conference. Crazy.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 16, 2016 21:17:51 GMT -5
Yeah, no one seems to want 3rd place. Although, i guess not too surprising that Butler would crush Creighton at home. I think it's better for the Big East teams if Creighton drops off. I'm sure the other teams feel the same about us.
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