eagle54
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Post by eagle54 on Jan 21, 2016 23:16:10 GMT -5
After the big win over Xavier which hopefully propels this team's confidence to put together a stretch of consistent play translating to wins, what would need to happen from this point out in terms of record to have a shot at the tournament (aside from winning BE tournament)?
I know many on this board study the RPI and the other indicators religiously but think we need a scorecard for our regular season record to make the tournament and what might be needed in BE tournament to seal it.
It still feels like we'd have a lot to overcome but think we could catch some great momentum from the last win to string something together.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 21, 2016 23:29:22 GMT -5
Right now Pomeroy, based on the combination of the team that lost some terrible games, hung with some really good teams, and beat Xavier -- so not the best of the Hoyas and not the worst -- has us at 11-7 in the Big East and losing to Connecticut. That's a team that's on the wrong side of the bubble unless it gets a real quality win in the BET. But it's still a team on the bubble.
If the Xavier game -- and to some extent the Nova game -- was more of a turning point than an up in a season of ups and downs ... a 12-6 season with a win over UConn doesn't seem out of the question. And I think that's on the right side of the bubble.
I know that seems like a thin line, but all but two of our remaining games are going to be considered quality opponents. And so two extra wins is huge, I think. 8-4 is great; 6-6 is bubble.
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McBricks
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What Rocks.
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Post by McBricks on Jan 21, 2016 23:34:23 GMT -5
In my opinion, we have to win the games we "should" win and beat a couple of teams that we shouldn't. Then we need to win at least 2-3 game in the BE Tourney. Sure there's RPI and SOS, but we aren't passing anyone's eye test right now. It's time to bear down and get some wins. And that starts Saturday.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Jan 21, 2016 23:46:05 GMT -5
Right now Pomeroy, based on the combination of the team that lost some terrible games, hung with some really good teams, and beat Xavier -- so not the best of the Hoyas and not the worst -- has us at 11-7 in the Big East and losing to Connecticut. That's a team that's on the wrong side of the bubble unless it gets a real quality win in the BET. But it's still a team on the bubble. If the Xavier game -- and to some extent the Nova game -- was more of a turning point than an up in a season of ups and downs ... a 12-6 season with a win over UConn doesn't seem out of the question. And I think that's on the right side of the bubble. I know that seems like a thin line, but all but two of our remaining games are going to be considered quality opponents. And so two extra wins is huge, I think. 8-4 is great; 6-6 is bubble. 6-6 would almost surely require a BET tourney win of some kind. 7-5 we are probably in without it. I'm not speaking to SF here, but people always overestimate what it will take. You don't have to be a good team to get in! You really only need a couple decent wins and a couple good wins. If we get seven more wins, we would have them. We actually are helped by an "eye" test, as silly as it seems. We have proven we can compete with very good teams, and beat an excellent onenon the road.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 22, 2016 0:22:30 GMT -5
Right now Pomeroy, based on the combination of the team that lost some terrible games, hung with some really good teams, and beat Xavier -- so not the best of the Hoyas and not the worst -- has us at 11-7 in the Big East and losing to Connecticut. That's a team that's on the wrong side of the bubble unless it gets a real quality win in the BET. But it's still a team on the bubble. If the Xavier game -- and to some extent the Nova game -- was more of a turning point than an up in a season of ups and downs ... a 12-6 season with a win over UConn doesn't seem out of the question. And I think that's on the right side of the bubble. I know that seems like a thin line, but all but two of our remaining games are going to be considered quality opponents. And so two extra wins is huge, I think. 8-4 is great; 6-6 is bubble. 6-6 would almost surely require a BET tourney win of some kind. 7-5 we are probably in without it. I'm not speaking to SF here, but people always overestimate what it will take. You don't have to be a good team to get in! You really only need a couple decent wins and a couple good wins. If we get seven more wins, we would have them. We actually are helped by an "eye" test, as silly as it seems. We have proven we can compete with very good teams, and beat an excellent onenon the road. Perhaps 7-5 gets us in; I don't disagree. I just don't think it is certain. Winning against UConn is a big step. Road win. Makes the non-conference look better. And it's either a quality win or a head to head win against another bubble team.
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Post by daytonahoya31 on Jan 22, 2016 1:05:39 GMT -5
In my opinion, we have to win the games we "should" win and beat a couple of teams that we shouldn't. Then we need to win at least 2-3 game in the BE Tourney. Sure there's RPI and SOS, but we aren't passing anyone's eye test right now. It's time to bear down and get some wins. And that starts Saturday. Beating Xavier on the road passes the eye test....
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eagle54
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Post by eagle54 on Jan 22, 2016 1:11:39 GMT -5
In my opinion, we have to win the games we "should" win and beat a couple of teams that we shouldn't. Then we need to win at least 2-3 game in the BE Tourney. Sure there's RPI and SOS, but we aren't passing anyone's eye test right now. It's time to bear down and get some wins. And that starts Saturday. Beating Xavier on the road passes the eye test.... Losing to Radford, Monmouth and UNC Asheville doesn't. We need way more than that to swing this back to passing an eye test.
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Post by trillesthoya on Jan 22, 2016 2:16:28 GMT -5
Remember that the selection committee always biases a team's performance at the end of the season over the beginning. If we close out like we should I see no reason why our very early losses should not be forgiven. I'm personally hopeful for the teams continued growth as I think things are finally starting to click a bit particularly for the younger guys. Fingers crossed the committee notices that too.
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Post by daytonahoya31 on Jan 22, 2016 2:24:42 GMT -5
Beating Xavier on the road passes the eye test.... Losing to Radford, Monmouth and UNC Asheville doesn't. We need way more than that to swing this back to passing an eye test. ok. we lost those games. You keep looking back...I'm looking at UConn... great win vs. Xavier, fellas
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SaxaCD
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Post by SaxaCD on Jan 22, 2016 6:02:15 GMT -5
Losing to Radford, Monmouth and UNC Asheville doesn't. We need way more than that to swing this back to passing an eye test. ok. we lost those games. You keep looking back...I'm looking at UConn... great win vs. Xavier, fellas And Monmouth might well be an NCAA team this year, with a bunch of quality wins -- that is not a scrub team. Radford and UNC-A, well... just keep playing well fellas. Forward always forward!
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Jan 22, 2016 6:58:50 GMT -5
Top 4 in the Big East is in. That's not because of that result directly but because whatever has to happen to get there would put us in.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Jan 22, 2016 7:06:37 GMT -5
Remember that the selection committee always biases a team's performance at the end of the season over the beginning. If we close out like we should I see no reason why our very early losses should not be forgiven. I'm personally hopeful for the teams continued growth as I think things are finally starting to click a bit particularly for the younger guys. Fingers crossed the committee notices that too. This is wrong. It's no longer a criteria considered. Sagarin, Pomeroy and other non-RPI ratings, however, are now considered. That should help us because I expect our Pomeroy rating to exceed our RPI. 8 wins puts us in safely. 7 and it will likely depend on who else is sitting on the bubble with us.
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SSHoya
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Post by SSHoya on Jan 22, 2016 7:35:40 GMT -5
Remember that the selection committee always biases a team's performance at the end of the season over the beginning. If we close out like we should I see no reason why our very early losses should not be forgiven. I'm personally hopeful for the teams continued growth as I think things are finally starting to click a bit particularly for the younger guys. Fingers crossed the committee notices that too. This is wrong. It's no longer a criteria considered. Sagarin, Pomeroy and other non-RPI ratings, however, are now considered. That should help us because I expect our Pomeroy rating to exceed our RPI. 8 wins puts us in safely. 7 and it will likely depend on who else is sitting on the bubble with us. Yeah, I think I read somewhere that the selection committee looks at the entire resume, not the last 10 anymore, which may have been used in the past. However, committee members may allow their subjective opinions in the selection process. See page 5, para. discussing "Ratings Percentage Index." www.ncaa.com/content/di-principles-and-procedures-selection
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Locker
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Post by Locker on Jan 22, 2016 8:30:27 GMT -5
The RPI Forecast site (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Georgetown.html) predicts that a 6-6 finish would put our RPI rank at #54 -- so probably requiring at least one BET win.
7-5 moves us up to #44.
8-4 to #34. An 8-4 finish is probably the only one that means we won't have to sweat it out going into the BET.
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AltoSaxa
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Post by AltoSaxa on Jan 22, 2016 8:38:06 GMT -5
Losing to Radford, Monmouth and UNC Asheville doesn't. We need way more than that to swing this back to passing an eye test. ok. we lost those games. You keep looking back...I'm looking at UConn... great win vs. Xavier, fellas Daytona, why is it acceptable to 'look back' to Xavier but not Radford, Monmouth and UNCAsh? As eagle has said they all matter. Need to win the games we are expected to win and win 2/3 of the games where we are underdogs.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Jan 22, 2016 8:39:15 GMT -5
This is a great website for answering this question: www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Georgetown.htmlJust having us win the games we're over 50% chance to win and losing the rest would put us at 17-14 before the BET with an RPI of 66 and an SOS of 17. Probably not quite good enough on it's own to get us in with out a solid win in the BET. Going 6-5 instead of 5-6 in league play still with out the win at Uconn puts us 18-13 with an RPI of 50 and an SOS of 16. If we go 6-5 in league play and win @ Uconn we'd be 19-12 with an RPI of 39 and an SOS of 15. Which would be enough to get in. Alternatively if we go 7-4 in league play and lose at Uconn we'd be 19-12 with an RPI of 40 and and SOS of 16 which again is enough to get us in. So I think that's what we need to do to get in securely and be off the bubble 6-5 + Uconn or 7-4 minus Uconn anything less and we're sweating it out. Obviously you can tinker with it and change who exactly we beat to get those BE conference results and it will change slightly, but it would still work out roughly the same.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Jan 22, 2016 9:50:59 GMT -5
This is a great website for answering this question: www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Georgetown.htmlJust having us win the games we're over 50% chance to win and losing the rest would put us at 17-14 before the BET with an RPI of 66 and an SOS of 17. Probably not quite good enough on it's own to get us in with out a solid win in the BET. Going 6-5 instead of 5-6 in league play still with out the win at Uconn puts us 18-13 with an RPI of 50 and an SOS of 16. If we go 6-5 in league play and win @ Uconn we'd be 19-12 with an RPI of 39 and an SOS of 15. Which would be enough to get in. Alternatively if we go 7-4 in league play and lose at Uconn we'd be 19-12 with an RPI of 40 and and SOS of 16 which again is enough to get us in. So I think that's what we need to do to get in securely and be off the bubble 6-5 + Uconn or 7-4 minus Uconn anything less and we're sweating it out. Obviously you can tinker with it and change who exactly we beat to get those BE conference results and it will change slightly, but it would still work out roughly the same. If we're sweating things out, unfortunately some of it will come down to how UNC-A, Radford, and Monmouth perform the rest of the way. It's definitely something to keep an eye on. I still think Monmouth will be a Top-50 loss (and if not, there's no chance it could be much worse than that), but they had a bad loss last night. It'd be awfully helpful if they finish very strong and win their conference. Either way, it won't be a "bad" loss, but if they finish strong, it won't be a demerit of any kind. So, we'll "just" have two bad losses, and the question will be how bad are they relative to our competitions'? UNC-A may also win their conference and could easily stay in the top 150 even if they don't. That would be good, all things considered. It'd be great if Radford could win a few and get into the top 150, but that seems harder to achieve. My point simply is that although we rightly think UNC-A and Radford are bad losses, it'd be awfully nice if we don't have a single truly terrible loss. It's a big difference when you can say something like "the Hoyas haven't lost to any team outside the top 150" or "their only loss outside the top 150 was in double OT in their first game of the year." If we're nit-picking at the end, those are going to be important nits.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Jan 22, 2016 10:17:32 GMT -5
While I know "officially" the committee is supposed to take the season as a whole, recency bias is a real thing. The whole idea of an "eye test" gives the committee a free pass to use recency bias or whatever other biases they have to make a decision without actually having to admit or explain it.
Also, the first game of the season is a complete crapshoot. No one is going to put much negative weight on that. Meanwhile, I believe UNC-A and Monmouth both have realistic chances of making the NCAAs. Losing to fellow NCAA teams, not a big deal.
I think UConn is a huge game for us. If we win, we are nationally relevant again right now and being on the radar matters. You do not want to slowly climb the mountain and hope people notice, you want high quality wins that shine the spotlight on what the Hoyas are doing. Road wins do that.
I think a win against Uconn, a winning record in the Big East and 1 BET win gets us in at 19 wins. However, I really do not want to be in that play-in game, so beating Uconn, 11-7 and 1-2 BET wins is a much better outcome. Without a win against UConn, 11-7 is a must in my opinion.
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Jan 22, 2016 10:36:12 GMT -5
While I know "officially" the committee is supposed to take the season as a whole, recency bias is a real thing. The whole idea of an "eye test" gives the committee a free pass to use recency bias or whatever other biases they have to make a decision without actually having to admit or explain it. Also, the first game of the season is a complete crapshoot. No one is going to put much negative weight on that. Meanwhile, I believe UNC-A and Monmouth both have realistic chances of making the NCAAs. Losing to fellow NCAA teams, not a big deal. I think UConn is a huge game for us. If we win, we are nationally relevant again right now and being on the radar matters. You do not want to slowly climb the mountain and hope people notice, you want high quality wins that shine the spotlight on what the Hoyas are doing. Road wins do that. I think a win against Uconn, a winning record in the Big East and 1 BET win gets us in at 19 wins. However, I really do not want to be in that play-in game, so beating Uconn, 11-7 and 1-2 BET wins is a much better outcome. Without a win against UConn, 11-7 is a must in my opinion. Gotta disagree. UCONN win would be nice but a loss not in itself a disaster. Our NCAA hopes rest on how we do in the BE. Assuming we lose the games we will be favored to lose (Nova away, Providence away, Butler away and maybe Xavier at home) our truly big games are those against Seton Hall and Butler at home. Those are the two teams we will probably be trying to beat out for an NCAA bid. Of course that assumes we beat bottom feeders St John's and Marquette and Creighton next week. I look at tomorrow's game against UCONN as a warmup for the rest of our BE schedule. More than anything I will be watching to see whether the Xavier win was for real or just a fluke and whether Ike can come alive.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Jan 22, 2016 10:48:46 GMT -5
Remember that the selection committee always biases a team's performance at the end of the season over the beginning. If we close out like we should I see no reason why our very early losses should not be forgiven. I'm personally hopeful for the teams continued growth as I think things are finally starting to click a bit particularly for the younger guys. Fingers crossed the committee notices that too. This is wrong. It's no longer a criteria considered. Sagarin, Pomeroy and other non-RPI ratings, however, are now considered. That should help us because I expect our Pomeroy rating to exceed our RPI. 8 wins puts us in safely. 7 and it will likely depend on who else is sitting on the bubble with us. That's not true, actually. The only change was literally removing the Last 10 from the committee-provided cheat sheet. Performance at the end of the season is still considered as the committee is picking the best teams and if late season importance looks like improvement, it will be considered.
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