calhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,351
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Post by calhoya on Nov 9, 2015 10:37:31 GMT -5
I really believe that our size, skill level and versatility will lead us to smashing Villanova this season. I don't think they matchup well with us. I think Jay Wright knows it and has addressed it in his current recruiting class by getting big skilled kids in Spellman and Painter. The whole conference is recruiting kids with size and skill. Villanova has only one player with any real size. We will have a size advantage at all 5 positions. It's not just size, it's size with skill. Even our second unit will have more size and skill. I think Villanova is overrated. I expect Villanova to do well in the OOC portion of their schedule and depending on match ups could make a little noise in March but I believe they are the 3rd or 4th best team in the conference (barring injuries/suspensions). I am more concerned with Xavier and Marquette then Villanova. Nova will compete at the foul line. Never underestimate their ability to get to the line, especially when they are undersized. Size without athleticism is not an asset. The Hoyas have to show that they can guard the perimeter and if the guards get into the lane that the interior defense is improved over last season--meaning can the bigs stay on the floor. Hope that the coach continues to utilize a full court trapping defense with size up top pressuring the ball, but not certain who will replace Bowen and Trawick in that role. Most likely going to be Peak who looked to be vastly improved as a defender this summer. So much of the defense depends upon the development of Hayes, Govan and Mourning as backstops.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,737
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Post by SFHoya99 on Nov 9, 2015 15:50:44 GMT -5
They've rebounded well with some smaller line ups in the past; we'll see if their current crew gets after it. We don't seem to be able to take advantage of our size. I can see us letting up a couple of threes and then rolling out a DSR, Peak, Campbell line up to counter and negate our advantage. I hate Nova, but if they are the 3rd or 4th best team in the BE, then the BE is completely loaded. hm I agree they have in the past rebounded and played well in the past with small line ups. That's part of the reason why I thought they could do well in the OOC and possibly make some noise in March based on bracket match ups. The difference I see with us vs Villanova small ball line ups in the past has been a lack versatile skilled offensive players in our positions of size. Not everyone on the floor was an offensive threat. Our offense more then most is predicated on skill and spacing the floor. We haven't really had the ability to put a line up on the floor of skill at all 5 positions since Simms and Clark senior year and even then we were not as skilled potentially as we are now. I actually think the BE will be better then it was last year. I think the conference will get at least 6 teams in the NCAA Tournament and at least 3 will be playing past the first weekend. I think Georgetown, Xavier, Villanova, Marquette, Butler, Providence, and Creighton will all be in the NCAA tournament. I think Creighton will be a bubble team that gets in and I think DePaul will be improved and a bubble team that could go either way. So yes I'm saying the BE will be the best Conference in the country and will have 8 teams fighting for tournament spots with 7 getting in. I also think ESPN will try to flex their national muscle and down play the BE success this upcoming season. THE DEMISE OF THE BIG EAST WAS VERY PREMATURE We're not getting seven in, and eight won't be fighting. GU, Butler and Nova seem like no brainers from what I know. I assume Xavier as well -- I haven't paid attention, but they are usually in it. The word out of Providence seems to have Reggie Bullock playing well, so maybe he can replace Henton. And I'm a big fan of Henry Ellenson at Marquette -- their schedule does them no favors, but I can see them contending. After that, who has even a shot in hell? St John's is awful. Seton Hall may have some upside, but they are going to lose too many to bad teams -- that's been Willard's MO. Creighton was terrible last year and won't have much more talent. DePaul. The Big East's best hope is actually that those four play okay in non-conference and then roll over for the bubble teams, and go for six. I think we get five.
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Hoyas4Ever
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
A Wise Man Once Told Me Don't Argue With Fools....
Posts: 5,448
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Post by Hoyas4Ever on Nov 9, 2015 16:44:46 GMT -5
I don't understand why everybody is screaming bloody hockey sticks about Marquette's upcoming season schedule. You all realize that teams RPI and SOS numbers don't carry over from season to season. No knows for sure that Marquette's schedule is going to be an absolute dumpster fire because no one knows what the teams on their schedule are going to accomplish this season. Yes Marquette could have added one or two more marquee teams on their schedule but even then your not guaranteed a better RPI or SOS because those marquee names could have a bad season and bring down the RPI and SOS. On paper their schedule is not sexy, but the season isn't played on paper. Our RPI and SOS could take a huge hit and not be as strong as it looks on paper if Syracuse and UCONN aren't tournament teams and Maryland is a middle of the BIG 10 team instead of winning the conference as they are favored to do on paper. I see people posting about Radford being 22-12 last year and they are solid competition. Radford could go 8-24 this season and have a RPI of 320 at the end of this season. Much like the teams on Marquette's schedule could have significant improvements from last season and improve their RPI's and Marquette's SOS.
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hoyainspirit
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
When life puts that voodoo on me, music is my gris-gris.
Posts: 8,392
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Post by hoyainspirit on Nov 9, 2015 16:57:01 GMT -5
I don't understand why everybody is screaming bloody hockey sticks about Marquette's upcoming season schedule. You all realize that teams RPI and SOS numbers don't carry over from season to season. No knows for sure that Marquette's schedule is going to be an absolute dumpster fire because no one knows what the teams on their schedule are going to accomplish this season. Yes Marquette could have added one or two more marquee teams on their schedule but even then your not guaranteed a better RPI or SOS because those marquee names could have a bad season and bring down the RPI and SOS. On paper their schedule is not sexy, but the season isn't played on paper. Our RPI and SOS could take a huge hit and not be as strong as it looks on paper if Syracuse and UCONN aren't tournament teams and Maryland is a middle of the BIG 10 team instead of winning the conference as they are favored to do on paper. I see people posting about Radford being 22-12 last year and they are solid competition. Radford could go 8-24 this season and have a RPI of 320 at the end of this season. Much like the teams on Marquette's schedule could have significant improvements from last season and improve their RPI's and Marquette's SOS. You're correct, in that none of us are clairvoyant. But, based on the available information, are you willing to bet that their schedule won't be a dumpster fire? If so, PM me.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Nov 9, 2015 17:07:58 GMT -5
I don't understand why everybody is screaming bloody hockey sticks about Marquette's upcoming season schedule. You all realize that teams RPI and SOS numbers don't carry over from season to season. No knows for sure that Marquette's schedule is going to be an absolute dumpster fire because no one knows what the teams on their schedule are going to accomplish this season. Yes Marquette could have added one or two more marquee teams on their schedule but even then your not guaranteed a better RPI or SOS because those marquee names could have a bad season and bring down the RPI and SOS. On paper their schedule is not sexy, but the season isn't played on paper. Our RPI and SOS could take a huge hit and not be as strong as it looks on paper if Syracuse and UCONN aren't tournament teams and Maryland is a middle of the BIG 10 team instead of winning the conference as they are favored to do on paper. I see people posting about Radford being 22-12 last year and they are solid competition. Radford could go 8-24 this season and have a RPI of 320 at the end of this season. Much like the teams on Marquette's schedule could have significant improvements from last season and improve their RPI's and Marquette's SOS. 1) The most likely predictor of this years performance is prior performances. 2) all the staisticall models like Kenpom and Dan Hanner suggest that most of the teams on marquette's schedule are going to be just as bad as they were last year. 3) The other main problem for the young marquette team is the majority of their challenging OOC games are early so instead of getting to feast on cupcakes to build up confidence in hopes of winning a few tough ones, they'll likely be thrown into the fire have nothing to show for it and then rack up wins against cupcakes.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Nov 9, 2015 17:10:18 GMT -5
I don't understand why everybody is screaming bloody hockey sticks about Marquette's upcoming season schedule. You all realize that teams RPI and SOS numbers don't carry over from season to season. No knows for sure that Marquette's schedule is going to be an absolute dumpster fire because no one knows what the teams on their schedule are going to accomplish this season. Yes Marquette could have added one or two more marquee teams on their schedule but even then your not guaranteed a better RPI or SOS because those marquee names could have a bad season and bring down the RPI and SOS. On paper their schedule is not sexy, but the season isn't played on paper. Our RPI and SOS could take a huge hit and not be as strong as it looks on paper if Syracuse and UCONN aren't tournament teams and Maryland is a middle of the BIG 10 team instead of winning the conference as they are favored to do on paper. I see people posting about Radford being 22-12 last year and they are solid competition. Radford could go 8-24 this season and have a RPI of 320 at the end of this season. Much like the teams on Marquette's schedule could have significant improvements from last season and improve their RPI's and Marquette's SOS. Obviously we realize that RPI is based on what actually happens. And strange things always happen in terms of teams doing better or worse than expected. All you can control are the things you can control. The point is that there's only so bad realistically Maryland, Syracuse, UConn, and Wisconsin are going to be. The odds of all of them being awful are slim to none. And, even aside from those, we haven't scheduled a bunch of teams expected to be truly terrible (plus 300 RPI teams). So, when we play our "cupcakes," for the most part, we have the perfect combination of "expect to win" but "don't kill your RPI by playing them." In other words, although there's a range our NCSOS will be based on how all these teams do, we can predict with some level of certainty that it'll be within that range. After all, look at how our NCSOS has finished the last decade or so. Maybe Marquette's schedule won't be a dumpster fire, but it's virtually guaranteed to at least be a small kitchen fire. I mean, there's only so good things can go when three of the teams on your schedule were among the seven worst RPI teams in the country last year! It's not that they don't play marquee teams (they have a few -- two B10 teams and a major conference tournament). It's that virtually every other game on their schedule stinks.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Nov 9, 2015 17:11:03 GMT -5
I don't understand why everybody is screaming bloody hockey sticks about Marquette's upcoming season schedule. You all realize that teams RPI and SOS numbers don't carry over from season to season. No knows for sure that Marquette's schedule is going to be an absolute dumpster fire because no one knows what the teams on their schedule are going to accomplish this season. Yes Marquette could have added one or two more marquee teams on their schedule but even then your not guaranteed a better RPI or SOS because those marquee names could have a bad season and bring down the RPI and SOS. On paper their schedule is not sexy, but the season isn't played on paper. Our RPI and SOS could take a huge hit and not be as strong as it looks on paper if Syracuse and UCONN aren't tournament teams and Maryland is a middle of the BIG 10 team instead of winning the conference as they are favored to do on paper. I see people posting about Radford being 22-12 last year and they are solid competition. Radford could go 8-24 this season and have a RPI of 320 at the end of this season. Much like the teams on Marquette's schedule could have significant improvements from last season and improve their RPI's and Marquette's SOS. Of course, RPI numbers and SoS numbers don't carry from season to season, but they are also pretty good indicators of where the team might land this coming season. Teams generally stay within a range. But, let's see. Based on KenPom's ratings, Marquette plays 7 sub 300 rated teams. Let's look at each of their KenPom ratings the last few seasons: These are their rankings for 2015/2014/2013/2012 IUPUI: 312/286/330/331 Grambling State: 351/350/347/345 Maine: 345/338/252/282 San Jose State: 349/302/315/267 Chicago State: 333/286/287/333 Presbyterian: 321/249/339/255 Stetson: 336/335/226/245 So, if you review these teams, most of them have been truly awful since at least the 2012 season. In the case of Stetson, they fell off the map when Casey Alexander left as coach after 2013. Based on historical experience, at best, we can hope some of these teams, rather than being sub-300 level, will be low 200s. This is a horrible schedule. There's really no way to spin it otherwise.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Nov 9, 2015 17:15:50 GMT -5
The point is that there's only so bad realistically Maryland, Syracuse, UConn, and Wisconsin are going to be. The odds of all of them being awful are slim to none. This is spot on. And, part of the reason those schools can only be so bad is because they play in good conferences with other good teams. It's like when we were in the old Big East - pretty much no matter what we did, our SoS was going to trend higher in conference because the other teams were generally quite good. The difference is that most of the horrible teams Marquette has scheduled play in really bad conferences, so aside from the fact that they aren't good, their conference opponents are not going to be helping their RPI either.
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SFOHoya
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 500
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Post by SFOHoya on Nov 11, 2015 18:28:01 GMT -5
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