SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,736
|
Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 24, 2015 13:52:10 GMT -5
The big issue that comes with that is who is going to be a similar offensive option? Copeland showed flashes, but was far from a freshman star in the vein of Freeman, Monroe or Porter. I'm an enormous Copeland homer but I think it's Copeland or bust and his development is the key to this team next season. He's not that far behind freshman Otto. In BE games, Porter played 529 minutes, and Copeland 479 (Copeland in 3 extra games). On overall offensive rating, Copeland isn't stellar: 106.0 to 112.5. But Copeland scored more points (173 to 171) on a better eFG (53.6 to 52.6). The A/TO gap isn't huge (18/28 for Copeland and 25/24 for Otto). The big gap in ORating I think is actually created by Otto's advantage on the offensive glass (42 to 22). But if you're just comparing freshman Otto to freshman Copeland in terms of ability to be a lead scorer, the edge goes to Copeland. Copeland also wins on DR% (21.0 to 19.3). The two big issues of course are that sophomore Porter's development was way beyond any reasonable extrapolation from freshman Porter's play; and Copeland's behind in several other areas, first and foremost that Otto had a gift for being in passing lanes and Copeland, to put it lightly, doesn't. But Copeland doesn't have to be sophomore Otto Porter. The supporting cast will be vastly better next year than it was in 2013 at pretty much every position. That last point is true. While we're still waiting for the next great Hoya star to emerge (for when DSR leaves), the 2014 and 2015 classes have a very good chance to be the best two class run in JTIII's history. The 2007-2008 classes will be hard to beat, in terms of Freeman, Wright, Sims, Monroe, and Clark. (Ewing was also cleared to play with the 2007 class) But we've already got 4 contributors and from the articles, the next class feels pretty bust-free. We've never gotten 7 contributors (or 8, if Agau pans out and you count him with this class) out of two classes -- the best we've done is this five or the kinda six out of the 2010/2011 classes (Nate, Markel, Hopkins, Otto, Greg, Trawick).
|
|
|
Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 24, 2015 13:58:02 GMT -5
I'm with NC. I think the assumption that we are going to be significantly better next year is a difficult one. People here like to crap on Josh, and I understand that his inability to not foul was frustrating. But he was our second best offensive player and he was the only player who brought a new offensive dimension to the team. We had no post offense without him, and no one on our team drew the doubles and created open shots for others like him. His defensive deficiencies were overstated as well. I like Govan's game, but I find it highly unlikely that he can equal Josh's offensive production on a minute by minute basis. The best hope is that the center "monster" of Agau, Govan and Hayes (and I suppose Derrickson?) can somehow equal or better the Hopkins/Smith combination. I know people here had unnatural love for Hopkins, but if the center position is better next year, it'll be because it can convert the easy baskets and not foul. Not because Govan is a better offensive player than Smith. The big issue that comes with that is who is going to be a similar offensive option? Copeland showed flashes, but was far from a freshman star in the vein of Freeman, Monroe or Porter. White is a facilitator and glue guy, not a creator. Tre's value was mostly in his shot this year, not driving and dishing. Peak's ability to create will be largely dependent on a step change in shooting. Someone could emerge from there, but there's a real chance that this team will need to win through strong defense and opportunistic team play. That can be a good team, but that's not much of a difference recipe from this year. Of course, the freshman class could all step up; Govan could be an overachiever and Marcus and Kaleb could replace our depth and this team could be really good. But the freshmen weren't as good as Trawick and Smith this year; people will need to improve. I couldn't disagree more. One month into next season and Josh Smith will be a Lubick-like memory. You can't write off his defensive liabilities with his occasional offensive contributions. Do you realize that while we were blowing out EWU Josh was on the bench the entire time? No, I share the opinion that Josh is what Josh was, a big, unathletic guy who was never a natural bball player. His size made him useful at times but had Tyler Adams been healthy he would never have been offered a GU scholarship. He had defensive deficiencies, sure, but his offensive contributions were far more than occasional. He absolutely never got credit for the fact that he created opportunities for others in terms of open shots due to the attention defenses paid to him. And that's because he didn't always get credited with direct assists. You mention EWU. Not Josh's best game to be sure, but he was actually still a net positive on the +/-. And what about Utah? We were up six at the under 16 time out when he went out of the game with one foul. We were up eight when he got his second and then we went into the half tied with him on the bench. He got his third almost immediately. He then came back in and almost singlehandedly kept us in the game for five minutes until he missed the front end of what should have been a two shot foul, DSR got called for the bogus travel, and they pulled away. If we had won that game (and if you don't call the DSR travel and have DSR hit, say, just one three pointer, we may well have won), it would have been in no small measure due to Josh. Now, I'll believe that it's perfectly possible that our 5s next year will be a wash offensively in that (1) at least one of them (Govan) may be able to draw a defender outside of five feet and, thus, allow us to actually run our true offense, which may in part make up for Josh's absence; and (2) whoever replaces Hopkins' minutes can't help but improve upon the overall offensive production. But I don't see how anyone can say that he wasn't an important cog to our offensive success this year.
|
|
|
Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 24, 2015 14:09:32 GMT -5
I'm with NC. I think the assumption that we are going to be significantly better next year is a difficult one. People here like to crap on Josh, and I understand that his inability to not foul was frustrating. But he was our second best offensive player and he was the only player who brought a new offensive dimension to the team. We had no post offense without him, and no one on our team drew the doubles and created open shots for others like him. His defensive deficiencies were overstated as well. I like Govan's game, but I find it highly unlikely that he can equal Josh's offensive production on a minute by minute basis. The best hope is that the center "monster" of Agau, Govan and Hayes (and I suppose Derrickson?) can somehow equal or better the Hopkins/Smith combination. I know people here had unnatural love for Hopkins, but if the center position is better next year, it'll be because it can convert the easy baskets and not foul. Not because Govan is a better offensive player than Smith. The big issue that comes with that is who is going to be a similar offensive option? Copeland showed flashes, but was far from a freshman star in the vein of Freeman, Monroe or Porter. White is a facilitator and glue guy, not a creator. Tre's value was mostly in his shot this year, not driving and dishing. Peak's ability to create will be largely dependent on a step change in shooting. Someone could emerge from there, but there's a real chance that this team will need to win through strong defense and opportunistic team play. That can be a good team, but that's not much of a difference recipe from this year. Of course, the freshman class could all step up; Govan could be an overachiever and Marcus and Kaleb could replace our depth and this team could be really good. But the freshmen weren't as good as Trawick and Smith this year; people will need to improve. I'm not suggesting it will be easy, but I think the "opportunistic team play" part is the driver next year. If Govan can, indeed, knock down a fifteen jump shot with some regularity, I can't overstate how much it will open up options for everyone else. Think about all of those hand-off plays where DSR pops behind the big for the possible three. The big won't be able to cheat on DSR anymore like he could this year. How many times did you see DSR lay the ball off to the big after taking an aggressive dribble? If you said "zero," you're the big winner! And for good reason, of course. It also will mean that the big won't be as able to help against a Peak drive (to use just one other example). All that said, I don't disagree that Ike is a huge key. I'd really like to see him (1) develop one post move; (2) work on going strong to the hoop and finishing through contact.
|
|
This Just In
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Bold Prediction: The Hoyas will win at least 1 BE game in 2023.
Posts: 10,592
|
Post by This Just In on Mar 24, 2015 14:24:39 GMT -5
Lots of thoughts on the matter, but I'll defer to a prior voice on the expectations: " The first commitment - that our students will receive our education and they will graduate; When I say our education, it means more than that they will graduate. It also means that they are prepared to live lives in which they will be leaders in their communities and businesses, lives in which they will be husbands and fathers, friends, and citizens. You accept this set of responsibilities that is grounded in our...tradition of Catholic and Jesuit education here on the Hilltop. (2) Secondly, that we do it honestly, that we be above reproach - that we must set the standard for integrity in intercollegiate athletics. And we do; (3) And finally, that we win. We keep score for a reason. Everyone has a better experience when we are winning." -John J. DeGioia Another more pertinent question is what are the expectations for athletics in general. Excepting Villanova, there is not a single athletic program like Georgetown's in Division I: a broad based national program with significant investments in men's basketball and I-AA football, only without the kind of football money that could fund the rest of the department. GU has over 700 students participating across a range of sports from fully funded to those with little institutional support at all. This board tends to ignore anything outside men's basketball (such as the downturns in women's basketball, football, and lacrosse) and that's understandable given that Georgetown seems uncomfortable promoting sports beyond basketball. But the answer is not, nor has it been, giving all the money to basketball. In some ways, basketball is probably overfunded but no one likes to say that. Of the top 10 basketball budgets in Division I, Georgetown ranks 8th of 10 in wins over the past 20 years and is one of just two of that top 10 without multiple Final Four appearances in the past 20 years.
Georgetown's spend on basketball is now more than UNC, Texas, Michigan State, UConn, or Maryland but can it continue to spend in this manner? Georgetown can't be Duke in one sport and Dartmouth in all the rest. What is the other school?
|
|
Locker
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,265
|
Post by Locker on Mar 24, 2015 14:41:51 GMT -5
I'm with NC. I think the assumption that we are going to be significantly better next year is a difficult one. People here like to crap on Josh, and I understand that his inability to not foul was frustrating. But he was our second best offensive player and he was the only player who brought a new offensive dimension to the team. We had no post offense without him, and no one on our team drew the doubles and created open shots for others like him. His defensive deficiencies were overstated as well. I like Govan's game, but I find it highly unlikely that he can equal Josh's offensive production on a minute by minute basis. The best hope is that the center "monster" of Agau, Govan and Hayes (and I suppose Derrickson?) can somehow equal or better the Hopkins/Smith combination. I know people here had unnatural love for Hopkins, but if the center position is better next year, it'll be because it can convert the easy baskets and not foul. Not because Govan is a better offensive player than Smith. I don't know. I tend to think we only need to have a league average center to improve upon this year. I do not agree Josh's defensive deficiencies were overstated. I'm having a hard time thinking of a less effective defender during JT3's time at Georgetown. It's not clear to me that our center play this year was more productive than, say, junior or senior year Julian Vaughn.
|
|
concord
Century (over 100 posts)
The foe long since in silence slept; Alike the conqueror silent sleeps.
Posts: 231
|
Post by concord on Mar 24, 2015 14:46:30 GMT -5
Of the top 10 basketball budgets in Division I, Georgetown ranks 8th of 10 in wins over the past 20 years and is one of just two of that top 10 without multiple Final Four appearances in the past 20 years. What is the other school? Indiana, I think.
|
|