What are realistic expectations for the program?

[aleutianhoya]

Mar 22, 2015 22:13:07 GMT -5 CTHoya08 said:

Oh, I know that the realistic number of wins isn't quite what they're "supposed" to be based on the seed. All I'm saying is that, while 1 for 6 into the Sweet Sixteen might not look terrible now, it might by the end of next weekend's games, unless Xavier surprises us.

I don't want to be misunderstood. It "looks" terrible now. Absent an Xavier trip to the FF, it will assuredly look just as terrible after next weekend.

If you're in the camp, as I am, that the NCAAs are largely a game of shooting craps, then the way it looks is really all that matters (because there's no deeper meaning to glean).

My only point, really, was that in terms of having a reasonable chance to make it look good on the national stage, we need more than one team earning a 1-3 seed.

[richfame]

All programs have expectations. Some programs are happy to just make the NCAA Tournament, some are happy to get the the sweet 16 while others its the final four or bust.

What upsets me is I see so many fans posting that they just want to have regular season success and to make the tournment yearly, and see what happens. I hate that, I expect and hope for more.

I clearly dont view this season as a failure but I thought we were capable of so much more. You dont have to be Kentucky or Duke to get to the final four or elite 8 any more, mid majors consistently get into the sweet 16 and beyond on a consistent basis. I feel we should strive for better, be a team thats going to make noise in the Tourney year in and year out. Yes, I get it all teams flame out from time to time. I guess I just hate the well lets be top three in our conference, get in the tournament and the rest is gravy mentality. Its a loser mentality.

[ColumbiaHeightsHoya]

Tourney comes down to match-ups. UCLA & Xavier got pillsbury soft roads to the sweet 16. In '06, we crushed #2 Ohio State and had a good shot against Nat'l champ Florida. You just can't have the Ohio's and FGCU games. I expect next years team to be a FF contender with what we have coming back and what we have coming in.

[Filo]

Putting aside the integrity expectations, which are paramount but assumed (at least by me, with JTIII at the helm):

I expect the team to compete for the BE regular season and tournament titles, and make the NCAAs, every year. There will glitches, where we might not make the tourney becuase of a bad year, but I would hope that there would be specific reason that contributed to it, and it is not a complete failure by the coaching staff or the players (e.g. injuries to key players; a couple of acclaimed recruits just don't pan out as expected).  Beyond that, I agree with others that tournament performance is simply a crapshoot, and I am not going to get too worked up over it

Having said that, I expect to see a smattering of a few deep(er) runs over the course of the next several years.  If not, I will be disappointed.  I want to, and expect to, see the deep runs not only because of the talent we have been recruiting, but because it would simply put to rest all of the negativity regarding the early flame-outs.  This is obvious, but it is absolutely crucial -- all you need are a few sporadic deep runs to completely set aside the choke reputation. There are myriad examples of this -- heck, Duke lost in the opener to Mercer last year, and they have had other flame-outs, but they make deep runs that more than counter the early exits.  (And, no, I am not saying that I expect the program to be as successful as Duke in terms of their Final Fours and National Championships.)
 
I really don't yet know what to expect of the team next year.  It depends on how Agau and the incoming frosh look -- assuming they are what we are expecting, anything less than a Sweet 16 will be a disappointment.  Of course, it is early, and I may need to adjust my expectations up or down.

[aleutianhoya]

Mar 23, 2015 7:34:12 GMT -5 richfame said:

All programs have expectations. Some programs are happy to just make the NCAA Tournament, some are happy to get the the sweet 16 while others its the final four or bust.

What upsets me is I see so many fans posting that they just want to have regular season success and to make the tournment yearly, and see what happens. I hate that, I expect and hope for more.

I clearly dont view this season as a failure but I thought we were capable of so much more. You dont have to be Kentucky or Duke to get to the final four or elite 8 any more, mid majors consistently get into the sweet 16 and beyond on a consistent basis. I feel we should strive for better, be a team thats going to make noise in the Tourney year in and year out. Yes, I get it all teams flame out from time to time. I guess I just hate the well lets be top three in our conference, get in the tournament and the rest is gravy mentality. Its a loser mentality.

I have no problem with expecting to get to the second weekend once every ___ years and being disappointed when we don't. The key, for me, is that if we meet the regular season expectations, the postseason disappointment causes disappointment but without recourse. That's where I am now. I'm disappointed by the longish term failure to get to the second weekend. Call it "not hitting expectations" if you want. But there's nothing I'd want or hope to change because of it. I just wish we had won two or three more games at a specific time over the past decade!

I completely understand that every program has a narrative as, well, a program. It's not just one season. But, if we had made the Sweet Sixteen the FGCU year and the Ohio year (for example) and every other result was the same, I think this season wouldn't be viewed as a disappointment by anyone. And because I think the "program" narrative is mainly a myth, I have to judge this season on its merits. Were we capable of so much more? Well, sure, virtually any team seeded in the top 8-9 lines has some reason to think they're capable of winning any game the Tournament lines up for them. But I certainly didn't have a strong expectation of getting to the Sweet 16 going into the season or even going into the Tournament.

[This Just In]

Mar 23, 2015 7:34:12 GMT -5 richfame said:

All programs have expectations. Some programs are happy to just make the NCAA Tournament, some are happy to get the the sweet 16 while others its the final four or bust.

What upsets me is I see so many fans posting that they just want to have regular season success and to make the tournment yearly, and see what happens. I hate that, I expect and hope for more.

I clearly dont view this season as a failure but I thought we were capable of so much more. You dont have to be Kentucky or Duke to get to the final four or elite 8 any more, mid majors consistently get into the sweet 16 and beyond on a consistent basis. I feel we should strive for better, be a team thats going to make noise in the Tourney year in and year out. Yes, I get it all teams flame out from time to time. I guess I just hate the well lets be top three in our conference, get in the tournament and the rest is gravy mentality. Its a loser mentality.

I just want to put the state of the program's post-season wins in context.....

The last time the Georgetown Hoyas won back to back games in the NIT or NCAA, George Bush was President.  

I am surprised that this fact does not bring concern to more posters.  

I assume now that the realistic expectation is just to make the NCAA tournament, as this seems to be the main issue that the majority of posters appear to care about.

[ColumbiaHeightsHoya]

I think the other thing is we are being perceived along with Nova as the flag bearers for the entire conference. Fair or not, that is where we are at. The conference had a great year with Nova, Gtown, St. Johns, Provy, Butler all having moments in the top 25 and Xavier also making the tourney. I expect Creighton & Marquette to be much better next year and I expect Nova, Us, Butler & Xavier to be very good. Provy depends on Dunn and how their freshman develop and St. Johns is a mess. Once we have a few more teams that are in the 2-4 seed mix, the conference will be on firmer ground and that adds to the anxiety of us not making the second weekend.

[concord]

Only 16 teams can make the "third" round. Georgetown was clearly not one of the 16 best teams in the nation this season. On top of that, they lost to a team that clearly was one of those top 16 teams. There's really no shame in that. I don't know why the loss to Utah should prompt serious soul-searching. I'm bummed that we lost but that's the nature of the beast. Taking care of business against EWU was my baseline expectation for this tournament based on the results of the regular season.

The 2014-15 Hoyas were a tough and competitive team that was one of the best in a deep Big East. They performed well in non-conference games, as always, and entertained us all with a smackdown of Nova. The senior class was somewhat lacking in top-end talent, but they were players we could all be proud of, and the underclassmen are likely to become a formidable force next year and beyond. Thankfully, everyone passed their classes this year. Moreover, the players proved to be another group of resilient and mature Georgetown players. And I'm excited for the recruiting class (especially Govan) to arrive on campus this summer.

Georgetown's basketball program is great fun to watch and a credit to the university. They perennially assemble strong teams that perform well in the Big East and make the tournament. "Expecting" more than that, in practice, means being willing to sacrifice the consistency and ethically-sound foundation of our program for a shot at more Final Fours, i.e. by trading JTIII for a stronger in-game coach with weaker ties to GU and/or more ethically dubious approaches, like our old friend Magoo. While I thrill and collapse with every Hoya win and loss like everyone else, I would not trade places with Syracuse today for all the vacated wins in the world.

[guru]

Mar 23, 2015 8:37:18 GMT -5 ColumbiaHeightsHoya said:

I think the other thing is we are being perceived along with Nova as the flag bearers for the entire conference. Fair or not, that is where we are at. The conference had a great year with Nova, Gtown, St. Johns, Provy, Butler all having moments in the top 25 and Xavier also making the tourney. I expect Creighton & Marquette to be much better next year and I expect Nova, Us, Butler & Xavier to be very good. Provy depends on Dunn and how their freshman develop and St. Johns is a mess. Once we have a few more teams that are in the 2-4 seed mix, the conference will be on firmer ground and that adds to the anxiety of us not making the second weekend.

Marquette in particular could be an absolute monster over the next few seasons. A double-edged sword for us, obviously.

[Deleted]

Personally I don’t get the constant wine.. What’s done is done, posters crying over the past is pointless everybody knows the record. The program can’t reverse history all it can do is take the steps to improve in the future.

It comes down to talent. Facts are there’s about 4-5 elite teams in that they can collect multiple players at the same positions with undeniable NBA talent. Besides them there’s simply elite “teams”. You can amass the correct amount of talent at the right times or have good chemistry and go on a run for a couple of years. This is the reality for mostly everyone else.

Beyond that Even amongst those Elite teams they can still lose early and they have a clear talent advantage. Kansas has failed to make the sweet 16 3 out of the last 6 and they have been a 1 or 2 seed every year. Duke 2 out of the last 4 including 2 first round exits. Parity in college basketball can bite even the most talented teams in the arse it’s not like Duke lost to powerhouse teams in Lehigh and Mercer. They both lost their very next games. to double digit seeds by double digits..

3 is a better coach than most give him credit for because of tourney results and because Georgetown fans are spoiled. We don’t have sweet 16 facilities, we don’t have sweet 16 fan support and that means it makes it really hard to have sweet 16 talent. We’ve still managed to compete for championships and been very competitive in a very tough conference. It’s a lazy narrative to focus on simply tournament results when evaluating the state of the program. and or expectations of the program.

We were terrible last year. Our talent level was at it’s lowest point in the Jt3 era. This year we upgraded our talent and even though we were a little too inexperienced and inconsistent due to our youth to close out more big games, this year we restored some of our mojo in the tournament and got a small bit of respect back. We didn’t lose our tournament game, we got beat. It is what it is, you tip your hat to the opponent and move on. If we can continue to recruit at a high level and find guys that match our identity we look poised to make some runs in the future if the ball bounces our way.. This is true for most teams

[ColumbiaHeightsHoya]

Agree with Yaboy. Unfortunately I kind of agree with Balla in that our "shooter" recruits haven't panned out and the rising senior and junior classes are weak. DSR is the one main exceptions as he has been very good, has improved his D, has had a steady handle when needed, and can put points on the board. I think those two classes are the ones that forced JTIII to reassess his approach to talent and the past two classes seem to be on track. Jabril is a good example of a guy who was not a "shooter" but had the athleticism and work ethic to become a very reliable shooter by his late junior and senior years.

I am very excited about the future and feel like we are in a really good spot with the facilities coming online. Bypass the Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Arizona recruits and find the mix of three and four year players that can perform in March.

[Deleted]

Mar 23, 2015 9:57:18 GMT -5 ColumbiaHeightsHoya said:

Agree with Yaboy. Unfortunately I kind of agree with Balla in that our "shooter" recruits haven't panned out and the rising senior and junior classes are weak. DSR is the one main exceptions as he has been very good, has improved his D, has had a steady handle when needed, and can put points on the board. I think those two classes are the ones that forced JTIII to reassess his approach to talent and the past two classes seem to be on track. Jabril is a good example of a guy who was not a "shooter" but had the athleticism and work ethic to become a very reliable shooter by his late junior and senior years.

I am very excited about the future and feel like we are in a really good spot with the facilities coming online. Bypass the Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Arizona recruits and find the mix of three and four year players that can perform in March.

It is what it is. Dsr is the only all BE performer in those 3 classes. That means 1 top 20 BE player in 3 years basically.

[kchoya]

Mar 23, 2015 8:22:46 GMT -5 This Just In said:

Mar 23, 2015 7:34:12 GMT -5 richfame said:

All programs have expectations. Some programs are happy to just make the NCAA Tournament, some are happy to get the the sweet 16 while others its the final four or bust.

What upsets me is I see so many fans posting that they just want to have regular season success and to make the tournment yearly, and see what happens. I hate that, I expect and hope for more.

I clearly dont view this season as a failure but I thought we were capable of so much more. You dont have to be Kentucky or Duke to get to the final four or elite 8 any more, mid majors consistently get into the sweet 16 and beyond on a consistent basis. I feel we should strive for better, be a team thats going to make noise in the Tourney year in and year out. Yes, I get it all teams flame out from time to time. I guess I just hate the well lets be top three in our conference, get in the tournament and the rest is gravy mentality. Its a loser mentality.

I just want to put the state of the program's post-season wins in context.....

The last time the Georgetown Hoyas won back to back games in the NIT or NCAA, George Bush was President.  

I am surprised that this fact does not bring concern to more posters.  

I assume now that the realistic expectation is just to make the NCAA tournament, as this seems to be the main issue that the majority of posters appear to care about.

That's not accurate at all, but keep telling yourself if it makes you happy.

[KHoyaNYC]

Realistic expectations: Big East contender every year, NCAAs every year, Sweet 16 or deeper on average every 3 years.

[vamosalaplaya]

Hoyas have the 13th most win all time in NCAA history. Tied with Villanova and together the highest ranking Catholic schools. Duke and Syracuse are the only two private schools above Georgetown. Two wins ahead of Marquette and Michigan, three ahead of Cincy, four ahead of Florida, 6 ahead of Arkansas and Illinois, 9 ahead of Maryland. Given the closest schools above us are Ohio State, Arizona and UConn, I don't think we catch anyone any time soon.

That translates to a Sweet 16 appearance every couple of years.

FWIW, Hoyas are 22nd in all time losses- appearances, basically. Which says the all time win percentage is above average for top schools.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men%27s_Division_I_Basketball_Tournament_all-time_team_records

[chep3]

This whole thread seems a little strange to me. I think over the past 8 years, we'd all be pretty happy with the regular season results. Since the FF run, we've won the Big East twice if I recall correctly, we've played in 2 Big East Tourney finals, and we've been seeded as a 2 (twice), a 3 (twice), and a 4. We've had some uneven recruiting, but our senior class was great (even though we only got 2(ish) years each out of our two most talented recruits), our freshman class was great, and next year's class looks great. In that sense, I think it's realistic to expect to keep doing the same thing in the regular season (though I take SF's point about goals vs. expectations). I think we'd all be happy with that.

The only reason we're having this conversation is that we haven't been good in the tourney. If 2008 had an Elite 8 trip, and 2010/2013 were sweet 16 trips, we'd all be pretty happy with the state of the program. So it seems strange to me to even talk about this team in terms of "realistic expectations" unless we're solely talking about the tournament. I'm still hopeful that the bad performances in the tourney (in which I would not include this year's) are not a systemic issue. I think our goal should be to perform on par with our seeding--if we're a top 4 seed 2 out of every 3 years, our goal should be the sweet 16 in those years. I think a realistic expectation is 1 out of every 3 years. If we're just a victim of small sample size, then that shouldn't be out of the question.

[SFHoya99]

Mar 23, 2015 7:34:12 GMT -5 richfame said:

What upsets me is I see so many fans posting that they just want to have regular season success and to make the tournment yearly, and see what happens. I hate that, I expect and hope for more.

We all hope for more. I don't really get why you can't understand that some people simply think that the NCAA tournament has a large amount of randomness to it -- both in seeding and matchups as well as just being a one and done type. It's not all that dissimilar to picking a random two to three game stretch of BE games to evaluate the season on, and the team MUST go undefeated or the season is a failure.

It's not that we don't want tournament success; it's just that we don't think it is a good way to evaluate the program.

You dont have to be Kentucky or Duke to get to the final four or elite 8 any more, mid majors consistently get into the sweet 16 and beyond on a consistent basis. I feel we should strive for better, be a team thats going to make noise in the Tourney year in and year out. Yes, I get it all teams flame out from time to time. I guess I just hate the well lets be top three in our conference, get in the tournament and the rest is gravy mentality. Its a loser mentality.

It's not a loser mentality. It's understanding what is under control. It's not wanting to fire a quality staff for failing in one aspect of their job -- one that lots of coaches fail at because the tournament has a lot components out of the coach's control.

[Big Dog]

The problem here seems to be that people are wanting to put on this season the burden of failures past, such that because there wasn't overachievement to compensate for prior underachievement, people are angry. But that's silly. Be mad about the 2010 and 2013 teams. Go ahead! It will take a long time to get over those. But holding this year's team accountable for those failures isn't fair. This team met expectations period. Was there a single voter in either poll that had Gtown in the top 16 for even one week all year? Why would we expect such a team to reach Sweet Sixteen?

And at the deeper level there is the anxiety about being outside a Power 5 conference. That too is legitimate and raises its own problems but has nothing to do with this season. Basically the argument around here seems to be whether we should expect a) to always be the best non-Power 5 basketball program in the country, or b) to instead be competing among the best such programs if not be the best one every year. That's a pretty small area of disagreement actually.

[DFW HOYA]

Mar 23, 2015 10:43:58 GMT -5 vamosalaplaya said:

Hoyas have the 13th most win all time in NCAA history. Tied with Villanova and together the highest ranking Catholic schools.

Current issues aside, that's remarkable.

Back in the pre-Internet days, I compiled a list of the year by year records of the 32 Catholic schools playing major college basketball from the 1947-48 through 1971-72 seasons. Georgetown finished last in number of wins and 31st of 32 in winning percentage--one of just two Catholic schools under .500 during that period. The only Catholic school with a lower win percentage than Georgetown dropped the sport entirely (Loyola-New Orleans).

[OldHoyafan]

Despite a couple of lean years in recruiting, the HOYAS with the last two recruiting years are now back on track to become that national power again. Let's not make any mistake about it the New BE needs Georgetown to be the flagship of the conference. Perception is ninety percent reality. If you look at the Requim for the BE by ESPN, it was the games between Georgetown and St Johns, Georgetown and Syracuse, and Georgetown and UConn that defined the BE as for as ESPN was concerned. Only St Johns and the HOYAS remain. That is why the ESPN announcers have that perception that the New BE is a mid-major rather than a major conference. In the next few years GEORGETOWN has the best chance, between Georgetown and St John's of getting that national respect back via the incoming recruits. The inconference rivalries between the HOYAS and Nova, Xavier, Marquette, Butler, and Providence will eventually gain national notoriorty be of Fox Sports1, but in the next few years it will take Georgetown beating up on the perceived national powers Duke, Kansas, Florida or Kentucky for the perception of the BE to improve.