Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 3, 2015 16:41:27 GMT -5
Agreed. Although I think it's a small exaggeration to say we don't "have much hope of winning any tournament games." Hope spring eternal on this board (along with trolls). Given the per possession arguments made by others, I'd think we have a 25-40% shot at winnning the first game regardless of opponent (assuming a 4-8 seed line). And maybe a 20-30% shot at winning the second (assuming we're a 4-6 seed--less if we're a 7 or 8). So maybe 5-12% shot at Sweet Sixteen. Be ironic if this flawed team got a deservedly mediocre seed and then overperformed 2 games in a row and dispelled our poor NCAA reputation. I suppose we're due for some karma. Now this is spoken like a Hoya fan of the last 7 years. We would be favored in almost any first round game we play (so more than 50% chance of winning). The only way we're not is versus an under-seeded 9 seed as an 8. The bar for "over-achievement" on this board is now below under-achievement. There is almost no scenario we shouldn't expect at least a first round win and several still in play where we'd be favored in the 2nd round game. Lunardi's current projection is Tulsa and then the winner of Iowa St.- UC Davis. That's like a 5-point favorite and a 2-point dog worst case scenario: only doomsday if you assume we do in fact suck in the tourney. We were favored at home against Xavier and Providence too, and lost against the spread at home vs. DePaul and away vs. St. Johns. When, in fact, is the last time we beat the spread against a team that wasn't in the midst of a complete roster meltdown? I'm actually curious.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 3, 2015 16:44:28 GMT -5
When I put us at 25-40% to win this matchup, it's because I worry that our game-to-game ceiling isn't as high as some of our peers. I wonder if that's because you've got fewer examples from this year's team of a high "game-to-game ceiling". It's pretty basic message board psychology when one is projecting if, say, their team could beat a 3-seed in the Round of 32, to say "Well, we beat Team X in January, and they're basically in the 3 seed range..." Heck, you're doing it with 11 seeds in your post. We really only beat one team all season projected to be a Top-4 seed (Villanova), so it's harder to make that leap. Of course, we also haven't lost to anyone yet that's projected below a 9 seed on BracketMatrix (Xavier) either*, so how does one handle that? Do you make the leap to say, "Well ya know, maybe we're less likely to lose to that 11 seed...". In truth, this year's team causes a bit of cognitive dissonance because their profile is atypical of a recent Georgetown team, as I think SFHoya99 alluded to earlier today/yesterday. We tend to have the resume** with several marquee wins, but also a few bad losses or just ugly games, so it provides vivid examples of "We could beat anybody!" or "We could lose to anybody!" Think of 2010 (wins over Duke, #2 Nova, Cuse in the BET, losses to USF and Rutgers) and 2013 (6 W's over ranked teams, but losses to USF and Pitt by 28 and ugly games against Tennessee and Towson). I said it somewhere else the other day: this team isn't really overachieving or underachieving, it just kind of exists. And a 6-seed would seem fitting, because that to me is the seed line that says "Eh, we don't know." (*I looked it up yesterday, and at the time, nobody in the RPI 20-27 had a winning record against the RPI Top 50. Our 4-9 was the worst record by percentage, but we'd played the most games, and I don't think anyone else had more than 5 Top 50 wins. So our profile is EVEN MORE KINDA JUST THERE than we thought!) (**What is a "typical" resume anyway? The one with several marquee wins and a few bad losses? Or the one where you've basically beat everyone below you, lost to everyone above you, and split the ones around you?) If form holds, however, (meaning we lose tonight, beat SHU, and then lose on BET Thursday to either St. Johns or Xavier against whom we will be slight underdogs if Vegas knows what they are doing), don't you think we're looking at a 7/8 seed instead?
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 3, 2015 16:46:51 GMT -5
By the way, at the risk of having 70 posts in a row, the thing I love about this Board is being able to feel pessimistic in the morning, write a post saying as much, and then get measured, analytical reactions from other posters I respect that make me realize both 1) I'm not totally crazy in my perspective, and yet 2) there are other things I've overlooked that provide reason for optimism.
I would say that I've resigned myself to just enjoying the remainder of the season on a one-game-at-a-time basis because I know that anything can happen with this team and shouldn't have particularly high expectations or be surprised at defeat to quality teams. But that wouldn't be true, only because I can't resign myself. I don't have control of my Hoyas-related emotions that way.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 3, 2015 17:13:01 GMT -5
Now this is spoken like a Hoya fan of the last 7 years. We would be favored in almost any first round game we play (so more than 50% chance of winning). The only way we're not is versus an under-seeded 9 seed as an 8. The bar for "over-achievement" on this board is now below under-achievement. There is almost no scenario we shouldn't expect at least a first round win and several still in play where we'd be favored in the 2nd round game. Lunardi's current projection is Tulsa and then the winner of Iowa St.- UC Davis. That's like a 5-point favorite and a 2-point dog worst case scenario: only doomsday if you assume we do in fact suck in the tourney. We were favored at home against Xavier and Providence too, and lost against the spread at home vs. DePaul and away vs. St. Johns. When, in fact, is the last time we beat the spread against a team that wasn't in the midst of a complete roster meltdown? I'm actually curious. St Johns way back on February 17th. Ah mid-February, it seems so close, like two weeks ago. We've beaten the spread in 5 of our last 6 wins by the way. Yeah we've lost a few games versus good teams we shouldn't have. But no, we're not blowing every game. It's just the ones where we don't show up, we look awful. Also we beat St. Johns and Nova by roughly a billion points and now the theory is "Daggumit our ceiling just ain't that high. Sure not as high as Boise St." It's trying to pre-empt disappointment which I get. But it's not logical. If we get a #6 seed, we're about a 25% shot at the 16. If you think it's way less, you should go to Vegas and bet it. Great value right? Canis ran the eeyore model and it spit out 10%.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 3, 2015 17:39:25 GMT -5
We were favored at home against Xavier and Providence too, and lost against the spread at home vs. DePaul and away vs. St. Johns. When, in fact, is the last time we beat the spread against a team that wasn't in the midst of a complete roster meltdown? I'm actually curious. St Johns way back on February 17th. Ah mid-February, it seems so close, like two weeks ago. We've beaten the spread in 5 of our last 6 wins by the way. Yeah we've lost a few games versus good teams we shouldn't have. But no, we're not blowing every game. It's just the ones where we don't show up, we look awful. Also we beat St. Johns and Nova by roughly a billion points and now the theory is "Daggumit our ceiling just ain't that high. Sure not as high as Boise St." It's trying to pre-empt disappointment which I get. But it's not logical. If we get a #6 seed, we're about a 25% shot at the 16. If you think it's way less, you should go to Vegas and bet it. Great value right? Canis ran the eeyore model and it spit out 10%. We also lost to St. Johns and Nova when we played them outside of Verizon Center (which will not be the venue for our NCAA games) by about a billion points. That's an equally compelling data point, obviously. I'm not saying I'm pessimistic, I am just trying to think about what a realistic expectation is for this team. And I don't agree with the premise that a) we're certain to be a 6 seed (because if we lose tonight and then again to SJU or Xavier next week as Vegas will expect us to I don't think we will be), or b) that as a 7 seed, we will necessarily be an oddsmakers favorite to beat the 10 seed in our first game.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 3, 2015 17:51:19 GMT -5
Tell me honestly, 25-40% is what Canis said For our first round game. If you got 2-1 odds for us winning our first round game knowing we're at worst catastrophically a 9 seed, you'd bet that in the dark right now. No matchups, no seeding, you'd have to take it. That's why I think this is silly. Not that we can't lose, but that we're acting like it's so improbable that we'd beat some other likely more-flawed team.
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njhoya78
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Post by njhoya78 on Mar 3, 2015 17:54:10 GMT -5
We are all suffering from a form of post-traumatic stress syndrome with respect to post-season tournament play. Until the Hoyas prove otherwise, you can't blame us for expecting the worst.
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hoyainspirit
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When life puts that voodoo on me, music is my gris-gris.
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Post by hoyainspirit on Mar 3, 2015 19:00:22 GMT -5
Alright, it's game time. Let's go out and win this.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Mar 3, 2015 19:08:11 GMT -5
I am getting darts on Fox Sports 1 in LA. Is anyone else having this problem?
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This Just In
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Bold Prediction: The Hoyas will win at least 1 BE game in 2023.
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Post by This Just In on Mar 3, 2015 19:08:26 GMT -5
Key players to keep an eye on; Mikael Hopkins and Josh Smith.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Mar 3, 2015 19:09:16 GMT -5
I am getting darts on Fox Sports 1 in LA. Is anyone else having this problem? Thankfully, not here.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 3, 2015 19:09:30 GMT -5
Ike with 2 defensive mistakes already.
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hoyajinx
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Post by hoyajinx on Mar 3, 2015 19:10:13 GMT -5
I am getting darts on Fox Sports 1 in LA. Is anyone else having this problem? Do you have U-Verse?
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This Just In
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Bold Prediction: The Hoyas will win at least 1 BE game in 2023.
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Post by This Just In on Mar 3, 2015 19:10:36 GMT -5
Leading Scorers Jabril Trawick 2/2 FG's 1/1 3pt FG's
Trawick has scored all 5pts for Gtown is on fire from the field.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Mar 3, 2015 19:11:38 GMT -5
Can someone verify that the game is on Fox Sports 1 on Direct TV. I can make it to a bar if it is
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mfk24
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Post by mfk24 on Mar 3, 2015 19:11:35 GMT -5
Ike with 2 defensive mistakes already. He is just not good at all defensively. I thought he'd made some strides but it's like the season just started.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Mar 3, 2015 19:12:06 GMT -5
I am getting darts on Fox Sports 1 in LA. Is anyone else having this problem? Do you have U-Verse? Yes I do.
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This Just In
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Bold Prediction: The Hoyas will win at least 1 BE game in 2023.
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Post by This Just In on Mar 3, 2015 19:12:32 GMT -5
Can someone verify that the game is on Fox Sports 1 on Direct TV. I can make it to a bar if it is It is, go to the sports bar.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 3, 2015 19:12:45 GMT -5
Josh lumbers his way into a quick foul.
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This Just In
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Bold Prediction: The Hoyas will win at least 1 BE game in 2023.
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Post by This Just In on Mar 3, 2015 19:13:39 GMT -5
The Hoyas needed someone else besides DSR to score from the perimeter and Jabril has picked up the slack tonight.
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