SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Nov 1, 2012 16:39:31 GMT -5
So, we have (another) young team, lots of inexperienced players who haven't found PT before, and again we see depth charts with 10 people playing?
Some coaches play a lot of players when they have no good options. They experiment with a bunch of players who haven't proven themselves in games or practice, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. They may tinker with match-ups knowing none of the options are good enough to justify consistent PT over another play, so why not play match-ups?
JTIII is not one of those coaches.
JTIII will adjust his lineup, going big or small, to only accomodate the players he feels deserves PT. When he has weak links, he shortens his rotation. When he can't shorten the rotation anymore, he plays the best player a lot, until someone proves themselves. He'll play three guards if there are only two passable bigs.
So who has proven themselves for minutes before this year? Otto & Greg, clearly. Nate, Markel and Jabril have proven backup minutes. Hopkins is probably in that group, as well.
That's six guys.
Then you have two players who haven't broken in before: Moses & Bowen.
And then four freshmen. One is almost certain to get time (DSR), one seems like he's got a decent shot (Hayes), one is a project (Bolden) and one is like 12 years old (Domingo).
Personally, I think we're on an eight man rotation in BE Play: the first six, DSR and the winner of Hayes/Moses. (Thought I retain the right to revise on Domingo.)
C: Hopkins 30/Hayes (or Moses) 10 PF: Nate 20/Otto 20 SF: Otto 15/Whitt 25 SG: Whit 10/Trawick & DSR 30 PG: Starks 25/Trawick & DSR 15
I combined Trawick and DSR because I'm not sure who will be the PG backup.
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Post by hoyas big supporter on Nov 1, 2012 17:04:39 GMT -5
Well JT3 is quoted saying this may be his deepest team he's had at GU and can expect a near 10 man rotation.
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Post by hoyas big supporter on Nov 1, 2012 17:06:34 GMT -5
Whitt with 10 mins at the 2, Otto with 20 mins at the 4, and Hopkins with 30 mins? Ill believe it when I see it.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Nov 1, 2012 17:25:56 GMT -5
Well JT3 is quoted saying this may be his deepest team he's had at GU and can expect a near 10 man rotation. Source? There won't be a ten man rotation. Not in BE play, and not unless you are counting 30 seconds here and there.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Nov 1, 2012 17:32:27 GMT -5
Whitt with 10 mins at the 2, Otto with 20 mins at the 4, and Hopkins with 30 mins? Ill believe it when I see it. I can't tell what your objection is. Is it too much time for Hopkins or too little?
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Post by hoyas big supporter on Nov 1, 2012 17:32:31 GMT -5
Well JT3 is quoted saying this may be his deepest team he's had at GU and can expect a near 10 man rotation. Source? There won't be a ten man rotation. Not in BE play, and not unless you are counting 30 seconds here and there. Yeah maybe not, but I'm gonna listen to coach on this one until he indicates otherwise.
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Post by hoyas big supporter on Nov 1, 2012 17:38:40 GMT -5
Whitt with 10 mins at the 2, Otto with 20 mins at the 4, and Hopkins with 30 mins? Ill believe it when I see it. I can't tell what your objection is. Is it too much time for Hopkins or too little? Just like you said, not many people have proven themselves yet. Though Mikael play well and is slated to start, I see him playing 30 mins a game (more than you have for Markel) unlikely, but he should average around 25 (so not that much of a difference). I dont think that Otto will play 20 minutes at the 4 because we'll have other options there by time BE play rolls around, and because I think he will be most effective on the wing this year. Additionally, it would not surprise me to see Hopkins play a few minutes at the 4 as well (that is his natural position, after all). Nate should also see an increase in minutes (20-25). And I think Whitt will play a few more minutes at the 2 simply because mostly Otto and some Domingo will be there to eat up minutes at the 3. Of course im no psychic, but I think that that makes little more sense for where our players will fit. We shall see though.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Nov 1, 2012 17:46:02 GMT -5
Source? There won't be a ten man rotation. Not in BE play, and not unless you are counting 30 seconds here and there. Yeah maybe not, but I'm gonna listen to coach on this one until he indicates otherwise. Again, source? Rotation sizes: 2012: 8 over 20% of minutes (8 mpg) 2011: 9 2010: 7 2009: 8 at any one time. 2008: 8 2007: 8 2006: 6 2005: 6-7 I don't think we're headed back to the days of 6 man rotations, but for this team to hit a real ten man rotation (not "give Vee 2 minutes at the end of the first half"), two more players than I have above need to step up. So Moses and Bolden and Hayes all demand PT? Bowen? Domingo? Who's the guy getting shortchanged in this analysis? Or rather the two guys of Bolden, Moses, Domingo and Bowen? Which of these players are going to grab PT from the rest? I guess I could see it -- it's not impossible. It's just a lot of things going right. We have seven plays I am pretty sure are ready to earn PT. Then there's five left who are medically cleared to play. Do we really think we hit on 3 of 5? Eh.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Nov 1, 2012 17:59:14 GMT -5
I can't tell what your objection is. Is it too much time for Hopkins or too little? Just like you said, not many people have proven themselves yet. Though Mikael play well and is slated to start, I see him playing 30 mins a game (more than you have for Markel) unlikely, but he should average around 25 (so not that much of a difference). I dont think that Otto will play 20 minutes at the 4 because we'll have other options there by time BE play rolls around, and because I think he will be most effective on the wing this year. Additionally, it would not surprise me to see Hopkins play a few minutes at the 4 as well (that is his natural position, after all). Nate should also see an increase in minutes (20-25). And I think Whitt will play a few more minutes at the 2 simply because mostly Otto and some Domingo will be there to eat up minutes at the 3. Of course im no psychic, but I think that that makes little more sense for where our players will fit. We shall see though. *I could see Mikael dropping and actually expect him to be lower than 30, but was pretty committed to five minute increments. Twenty five is not unlikely. *I don't expect much out of Moses, tbh, and I am not ready to commit to huge minutes from Hayes, though he's definitely a monster X factor for the season. In other words, if Mikael plays 25 minutes, they are all coming at center because I don't think the rest of the guys give more than 15 good minutes. And I think it'll be one or the other. *Otto gets 20 minutes at the four, because I think Nate is what he is, and that DSR/Trawick/Starks are going to outperform him. I think he improves, but you can't fix everything that was broke in a summer. Between the shot (egads) and his inability to quite rebound and defend against good BE teams... *Whitt plays at the 3 as much as he does, because Otto plays at the four, and that's all because I believe in the young guards more than the young bigs. If Whitt plays 25 minutes at the 2 (or more), then you are looking at minimal time for DSR, Starks or Trawick. Could see it, I suppose, but the bigs seem bigger question marks. *I don't know how Domingo gets a ton of time. Our best two players play the 3 -- Otto and Whitt. They are likely to play 70 minutes across the 120 minutes at the 2, 3 and 4. Of the remaining 50 minutes, he's at minimum competing with Nate, DSR and Trawick (though the latter two will get 10-20 total at PG). Still of those four, two will get strong PT -- is Domingo one of the Top 2? *In your world, the bigs are stepping up so much that Otto plays almost all his minutes at the three. Whittington plays almost all at the 2. Domingo backs them up, so basically, someone out of DSR/Trawick/Starks has to not be getting PT, right?
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Post by professorhoya on Nov 1, 2012 18:06:19 GMT -5
Yeah maybe not, but I'm gonna listen to coach on this one until he indicates otherwise. Again, source? Rotation sizes: 2012: 8 over 20% of minutes (8 mpg) 2011: 9 2010: 7 2009: 8 at any one time. 2008: 8 2007: 8 2006: 6 2005: 6-7 I don't think we're headed back to the days of 6 man rotations, but for this team to hit a real ten man rotation (not "give Vee 2 minutes at the end of the first half"), two more players than I have above need to step up. So Moses and Bolden and Hayes all demand PT? Bowen? Domingo? Who's the guy getting shortchanged in this analysis? Or rather the two guys of Bolden, Moses, Domingo and Bowen? Which of these players are going to grab PT from the rest? I guess I could see it -- it's not impossible. It's just a lot of things going right. We have seven plays I am pretty sure are ready to earn PT. Then there's five left who are medically cleared to play. Do we really think we hit on 3 of 5? Eh. I think you've got it wrong. Bolden won't play this year and isn't in the equation. But we still have 10. 1. Hopkins 2. Moses 3. Lubick 4. Otto 5. Whit 6. Trawick 7. Domingo 8. DSR 9. Starks 10. ? 10 may go to BJ Hayes. But then again he may be a Hibbert like project who isn't ready this year. Or it may go to Bowen. Domingo should see alot of time. I don't think he would've come out of high school a year early if he wasn't going to get PT here. He's someone that could've stayed in high school and improved his ranking (it already would've jumped based on his USA team play) instead of sitting on the bench at Georgetown.
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biggmanu
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Post by biggmanu on Nov 1, 2012 18:20:37 GMT -5
If somethings got to give i'm afraid it's going to be trawick or starks. the problem is that we're going to have to go through some painful starks minutes before jt3 decides to re-allocate to a heavier DSR weighting. Ideally it would be Lubick who loses minutes to the likes of DSR/Domingo, but we're going to need him more than starks/trawick in my opinion.
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Post by hoyas big supporter on Nov 1, 2012 18:34:04 GMT -5
How many of you actually noted Markel's improvement from the end of last season? His problem has always been mental, not physical. Pound for pound he is the best returning offensive player we have. I think people are really selling him short. I think the whole "rift" with JT3 was way overblown, it was more of a reflection about how JT3 felt about the players around him (Clark, Otto) rather than Markel's shortcomings. When markel plays with confidence there is almost no one that can guard him. He's quicker than Chris (which makes him the quickest guard GU has had in a while). his first step may not be as good but thats it. He has excellent handle, and excellent form on his jumper. He can finish pretty well also. This fanbase gets a little impatient with players that dont step up right away because we usually count on players developing quickly to reload. Last year he got his first meaningful minutes and didnt play horribly, he just ended up conceding some of his role to an all-league senior that was our best player last year. He's no worse than Tyler Thorton or Eric Atkins, both of whom get a lot of respect from their fanbases. He's gonna be great for us next season. If he ever gets replaced as the starter please impose a lifetime ban on me.
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biggmanu
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Post by biggmanu on Nov 1, 2012 18:40:10 GMT -5
The mental aspect is of vital importance running the gtown style offense. Markel is very fast i'll give him that but that's not what's going to make the offense sing. If we get behind and we need to make up ground fast I'm all for putting in Markel with Jabril and Nate for defensive purposes. If we are ahead i'd prefer DSR run the offense at a more controlled pace with our sharp shooters in the game.
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Post by hoyas big supporter on Nov 1, 2012 18:49:35 GMT -5
Yeah I'm just saying after 2 years the mental seems to have come around. It's better than having to improve both mental and physical, and I'd sure as hell bet on any player's mental coming around quicker than their physical.
It's sort of like Jabril's game. He has to improve the physical (midrange game, handle, jumper) because the mental is already there. But if I had to bet who'd make more of an impact this season I'd say Markel. They may not play the exact same position, but the mental is an easier/quicker fix than the physical in most cases. Especially when you're the oldest guard on the roster and you know it's your time to lead.
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Post by hoyas big supporter on Nov 1, 2012 18:52:07 GMT -5
Yeah I'm just saying after 2 years the mental seems to have come around (yet to be seen on the college basketball court, but everything else suggests its true). It's better than having to improve both mental and physical, and I'd sure as hell bet on any player's mental coming around quicker than their physical. It's sort of like Jabril's game. He has to improve the physical (midrange game, handle, jumper) because the mental is already there. But if I had to bet who'd make more of an impact this season I'd say Markel. They may not play the exact same position, but the mental is an easier/quicker fix than the physical in most cases. Especially when you're the oldest guard on the roster and you know it's your time to lead. But that's just one man's opinion.
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Nov 1, 2012 19:31:18 GMT -5
I'm not sure I can limit my choice to just one. I am high on the potential of guys like Markel, Greg, Jabril, Mikael (I won't include any frosh because I don't think they can be considered potential breakout players since they haven't had stats from previous years to break out from).
I think Markel will be very good. I only hope he runs the team more like a true pg would rather than a JT III point guard. Greg may have more ability than anyone else on the squad. And I'm pretty excited to see an offensively aggressive big like Mikael play the 5. Jabril I'm more concerned about and that is only because I don't think III has much love or overall use for guards that don't make a living taking shots behind the three-point line (although III did say in his Sports 980 interview that Greg, Mikael AND Jabril were capable of having Henry Simms-like breakouts).
I would love to include Nate on this list but he hasn't lived up to my expectations of him. Coming out of high school he sounded like he would be a beast in the paint. Still I haven't given up all hope....yet.
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rosslynhoya
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Post by rosslynhoya on Nov 1, 2012 19:33:15 GMT -5
How many of you actually noted Markel's improvement from the end of last season? His problem has always been mental, not physical. Pound for pound he is the best returning offensive player we have. I think people are really selling him short. I think the whole "rift" with JT3 was way overblown, it was more of a reflection about how JT3 felt about the players around him (Clark, Otto) rather than Markel's shortcomings. When markel plays with confidence there is almost no one that can guard him. He's quicker than Chris (which makes him the quickest guard GU has had in a while). his first step may not be as good but thats it. He has excellent handle, and excellent form on his jumper. He can finish pretty well also. This fanbase gets a little impatient with players that dont step up right away because we usually count on players developing quickly to reload. Last year he got his first meaningful minutes and didnt play horribly, he just ended up conceding some of his role to an all-league senior that was our best player last year. He's no worse than Tyler Thorton or Eric Atkins, both of whom get a lot of respect from their fanbases. He's gonna be great for us next season. If he ever gets replaced as the starter please impose a lifetime ban on me. This is pretty much my sentiment to a tee. Thanks hbs for putting it into words!
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Nov 1, 2012 19:39:14 GMT -5
Well JT3 is quoted saying this may be his deepest team he's had at GU and can expect a near 10 man rotation. Source? He mentioned that during the Sports 980 interview and perhaps somewhere else too. Will it happen? Who knows. It wouldn't be hard that do if he stretched out games by picking up the pace and perhaps sneaking in a few minutes for the a couple of more players. But that is indeed wishful thinking on my part. What I don't get is why waste time filling out the roster if you want to play only 7 or 8 players? Does he feel the reamining five or six are only there in case of injuries? I don't understand any coach that does that.
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Post by hoyas big supporter on Nov 1, 2012 19:51:51 GMT -5
And he is planning on pressing more, which often requires fresh legs to be available. An if III is actually committed to a press, that is one of the very few ways in which I see Aaron getting any run. Which is not out of the realm of possibility, though unlikely.
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Eurostar
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Post by Eurostar on Nov 1, 2012 20:27:34 GMT -5
*I could see Mikael dropping and actually expect him to be lower than 30, but was pretty committed to five minute increments. Twenty five is not unlikely. *I don't expect much out of Moses, tbh, and I am not ready to commit to huge minutes from Hayes, though he's definitely a monster X factor for the season. In other words, if Mikael plays 25 minutes, they are all coming at center because I don't think the rest of the guys give more than 15 good minutes. And I think it'll be one or the other. *Otto gets 20 minutes at the four, because I think Nate is what he is, and that DSR/Trawick/Starks are going to outperform him. I think he improves, but you can't fix everything that was broke in a summer. Between the shot (egads) and his inability to quite rebound and defend against good BE teams... *Whitt plays at the 3 as much as he does, because Otto plays at the four, and that's all because I believe in the young guards more than the young bigs. If Whitt plays 25 minutes at the 2 (or more), then you are looking at minimal time for DSR, Starks or Trawick. Could see it, I suppose, but the bigs seem bigger question marks. *I don't know how Domingo gets a ton of time. Our best two players play the 3 -- Otto and Whitt. They are likely to play 70 minutes across the 120 minutes at the 2, 3 and 4. Of the remaining 50 minutes, he's at minimum competing with Nate, DSR and Trawick (though the latter two will get 10-20 total at PG). Still of those four, two will get strong PT -- is Domingo one of the Top 2? *In your world, the bigs are stepping up so much that Otto plays almost all his minutes at the three. Whittington plays almost all at the 2. Domingo backs them up, so basically, someone out of DSR/Trawick/Starks has to not be getting PT, right? Agree on all points. Getting back to the topic of this thread, I see Hopkins being the breakout of this year for several reasons: we saw flashes of it last year, the center is typically the breakout player (Sims, Hibbert) and we have great big man coaches and assistants. He will break out offensively, I just hope he can guard on the defensive end. Greg doesnt count because we all know he's going to break out.
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