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Post by TokyoHoya on Feb 14, 2005 22:50:05 GMT -5
Our RPI has dropped to 37 from 35 in response to Pitt's victory over Syracuse. Pitt has skyrocketed to 33. Since road victories are emphasized in the new RPI calculation (I think), I would have that the Pitt victory and its now higher RPI would help GU's RPI based on GU's victory at Pitt. I'm not familiar with the actual calculation to understand why there was a drop (beyond falling behind Pitt).
Can anyone explain?
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Feb 14, 2005 23:50:22 GMT -5
Citadel lost tonight and Norfolk won (but played a lousy team).
Pitt/'Cuse had no RPI effect on us. We played both once on the road. So in effect our 'Cuse loss got worse while our Pitt win got better.
Small movements happen all the time. No reason to worry. Pitt got the boost of a road win, and a boost just by playing the 22-2 (against everyone that's not Pitt) of Syracuse.
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Post by Fan Of The Game on Feb 14, 2005 23:54:55 GMT -5
But then again, Davidson won...on the road...
I would think based on what little I know about the new RPI, that our win at Pitt counts as 1.4 wins whereas our loss at Syracuse counts .6 losses. Therefore our game against Pitt counts twice as much toward our RPI as our Syracuse game. Just taking that game into account I would figure our RPI to improve.
But GIGA is right, we're going to have minor fluctuations all the time.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Feb 15, 2005 0:03:05 GMT -5
You're right. It did improve our RPI. Had we lost to 'Cuse at home, it wouldn't have I believe.
Oh man, the RPI again manages to make my head spin. It's all the same 35 or 37.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Feb 15, 2005 11:23:13 GMT -5
For GU's SOS it doesn't matter which one you beat and which beat you. GU played them both away and went 1-1, which new RPI translates into 1.4-.6.
For Georgetown's RPI, the adjustment is made only to GU's record, not to SOS. For SOS, Pitt is now 18-3, not counting GU game. Cuse is 21-4. No home/away adjustments.
Georgetown's SOS got slightly worse because Syracuse's winning percentage dropped by more than Pitt's winning percentage increased. That is because they both had winning records, so the .500 effect of the game brought down their average.
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dTRAIN
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Post by dTRAIN on Feb 15, 2005 11:26:41 GMT -5
For GU's SOS it doesn't matter which one you beat and which beat you. GU played them both away and went 1-1, which new RPI translates into 1.4-.6. For Georgetown's RPI, the adjustment is made only to GU's record, not to SOS. For SOS, Pitt is now 18-3, not counting GU game. Cuse is 21-4. No home/away adjustments. Georgetown's SOS got slightly worse because Syracuse's winning percentage dropped by more than Pitt's winning percentage increased. That is because they both had winning records, so the .500 effect of the game brought down their average. Thanks for the update. That is probably the best RPI effect summary I've seen. Thanks. d
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FOTP
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Post by FOTP on Feb 15, 2005 11:28:31 GMT -5
What kills us is the schedule of the teams we played. Every time Howard and Norfolk St. and San Jose St. step on the floor they hurt us.
At the end of the day if we end up at 11-5 in the BE our RPI is going to be in the mid-40's.
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Post by ArlingtonHoya on Feb 15, 2005 11:59:13 GMT -5
I've developed a spreadsheet (add me to the "too much time on his hands" list) that projects our final (post-BET) RPI using a series of scenarios for our remaining games. Unfortunately, the results are pretty frightening.
By my calculations, our RPI ranking would be about 51 if we beat SJU, VU and PC but lose to ND, UConn and in the first round of the BET. (Our record would be 19-9 in that case). Meanwhile, our ranking would be about 42 with one BET win before losing in the second round. (How huge is that first-round game?)
If our only remaining wins (inc the BET) are against SJU and PC, I project our ranking to be 57 (and that's with the 10-6 conference record that some have said will be enough to make us a lock). Even with one BET win added to that scenario, our ranking would improve only to 52.
I'd be happy to discuss in more detail if anyone cares, but I just wanted to offer my two cents as to our current prognosis. By my calculations, we really need at least 4 more wins, if not 5. As I said, frightening.
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YB
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Post by YB on Feb 15, 2005 12:07:42 GMT -5
Like I always said, Alrington, every game is huge. We can't let up. Need some more road wins. Every next game is the most important of the season.
Let's hope our guys aren't tired and don't suffer a letdown or overlook anyone.
Let's go Hoyas!
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hoyadrummer
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Post by hoyadrummer on Feb 15, 2005 12:38:23 GMT -5
10-6 does not make us a lock. 11-5 does not make us a lock, not if we lose in the first round of the BET and there are enough upsets in mid major tournaments.
The "easiest" (fewest difficult wins) way to lock status is beating SJU and Prov, taking one of three from ND, Nova and UConn, and winning our first game at MSG. Then we are a lock.
I'd like to see us take two of three from Nova, ND and UConn, win two in NY, and move up to 4/5 seed terrirtory.
As for our RPI, look for it to jump if we win two this week, both are road games, its the RPI equivilent of winning 3.2 games.
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dTRAIN
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Post by dTRAIN on Feb 15, 2005 12:50:33 GMT -5
10-6 does not make us a lock. 11-5 does not make us a lock, not if we lose in the first round of the BET and there are enough upsets in mid major tournaments. The "easiest" (fewest difficult wins) way to lock status is beating SJU and Prov, taking one of three from ND, Nova and UConn, and winning our first game at MSG. Then we are a lock. I'd like to see us take two of three from Nova, ND and UConn, win two in NY, and move up to 4/5 seed terrirtory. As for our RPI, look for it to jump if we win two this week, both are road games, its the RPI equivilent of winning 3.2 games. If we go 11-5 (which is what I think we will go) I believe we will end up as eaither the 4 or 5. That gets us a bye to Thursday, playing the 4 or the 5 (an odd quirk this year with only 11 teams in the tourney). If we lose that game, I still think we are in. 53 of 55 10-6 BET have gotten in. I can't see an 11-5 not getting in. d
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Post by Fan Of The Game on Feb 15, 2005 13:19:36 GMT -5
I've developed a spreadsheet (add me to the "too much time on his hands" list) that projects our final (post-BET) RPI using a series of scenarios for our remaining games. Unfortunately, the results are pretty frightening. By my calculations, our RPI ranking would be about 51 if we beat SJU, VU and PC but lose to ND, UConn and in the first round of the BET. (Our record would be 19-9 in that case). Meanwhile, our ranking would be about 42 with one BET win before losing in the second round. (How huge is that first-round game?) If our only remaining wins (inc the BET) are against SJU and PC, I project our ranking to be 57 (and that's with the 10-6 conference record that some have said will be enough to make us a lock). Even with one BET win added to that scenario, our ranking would improve only to 52. I'd be happy to discuss in more detail if anyone cares, but I just wanted to offer my two cents as to our current prognosis. By my calculations, we really need at least 4 more wins, if not 5. As I said, frightening. Good work. Off the cuff I would have said we NEEDED three more wins...I guess this gives extra incentive to beat ND and try to shoot for 3-4 more wins after that. Question: under your spreadsheet for the final RPI of 51 scenario, who are the teams that are behind us now that you have projected to finish in front of us at season's end? Just curious as to who to root for. Obviously we want to win our games, and have teams that affect our RPI significantly win their games, but at the end of the day the RPI is a ranking system so we also need to root against those schools that surround us in the rankings.
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FOTP
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Post by FOTP on Feb 15, 2005 13:22:24 GMT -5
I've been doing some thinking and I believe that the St. John's game and the Nova game are our two most important at this point.
Winning at St. John's gives us a silly 1.4 wins, but that can be negated by a loss at home to a tough Nova team.
Losing on the road is not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things, but losing at home to anyone just kills you.
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Joe Hoya
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Post by Joe Hoya on Feb 15, 2005 13:23:24 GMT -5
Keep in mind, the RPI number (35, 37) is a ranking. Just because we dropped two spots doesn't mean our actual RPI (the number, which generally looks like 0.6382 or something) dropped at all. It's possible that two teams jumped over us and we fell that way, for instance like Pitt did.
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Grandpa
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Post by Grandpa on Feb 15, 2005 13:25:25 GMT -5
I've developed a spreadsheet (add me to the "too much time on his hands" list) that projects our final (post-BET) RPI using a series of scenarios for our remaining games. Unfortunately, the results are pretty frightening. By my calculations, our RPI ranking would be about 51 if we beat SJU, VU and PC but lose to ND, UConn and in the first round of the BET. (Our record would be 19-9 in that case). Meanwhile, our ranking would be about 42 with one BET win before losing in the second round. (How huge is that first-round game?) If our only remaining wins (inc the BET) are against SJU and PC, I project our ranking to be 57 (and that's with the 10-6 conference record that some have said will be enough to make us a lock). Even with one BET win added to that scenario, our ranking would improve only to 52. I'd be happy to discuss in more detail if anyone cares, but I just wanted to offer my two cents as to our current prognosis. By my calculations, we really need at least 4 more wins, if not 5. As I said, frightening. While the scenarios you projected may portend Georgetown as a bubble-level team, I think one needs to consider what the selection committee says every year regarding its selections (i.e., that its not just RPI). In particular, given that this year's RPI is being derived from a new formula, one has to think that the committee will be taking into consideration, perhaps more than usual, the factors other than just the RPI (whether new or old formula). Thus, if we end up at 11-5 (and potentially even 10-6), it would seem pretty likely that we would be no worse than tied for 5th or 6th place (record-wise, not factoring in the various tie-breakers etc.) heading into the Big East Tournament. At 10-6 (and presumeably no worse than 6th place), I think we'd need a win to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. I could see where a loss (particularly if it would be in the #6 vs. #11 game) would make things a lot less comfortable on Sunday and we would need to hope that conference leaders in the non-majors win their respective tournaments. At 11-5 (and presumably no worse than 5th place), I think we are a near-lock regardless of tournament outcome as that would mean we likely won the St. Johns and Providence game and either beat ND (season sweep) or UConn (season split) on the road or beaten Nova (season sweep) at home. Further, if you factor in the fact that we (as the #5 seed) would likely be playing the #4 seed, I think it makes a loss in the quarter-finals much less damaging. Thus, is it theoretically possible to be left out of the tourney with 11 regular season conf wins? Maybe, but I think the moons would have to align in such a way that would make such an outcome very remote. (And yes, I'm knocking on wood as I speak!) But, alas I think we should all take the advice of lic and several other posters and just take each game as it comes. A win at ND tomorrow night would go a long towards furthering the cause!
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FOTP
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Post by FOTP on Feb 15, 2005 13:33:12 GMT -5
I think the one thing people overrate is the position in a conference. My impression is the committee doesn't look at it and say "The Hoyas were 5th in the conference so they get in". They need to compare folks from different conferences and just lay out the resumes against each other.
The keys are: Who you beat? Where you beat them? and When you beat them (ie. last 10 games).
We have nice wins against Nova and Pitt on the road which should help us a lot. If we stay out of trouble and sqeeze a win against ND or Nova I think we dance regardless of RPI.
The terrifying scenario is we go 2-3 (win St. Johns/Prov) and the lose in the first round of the Big East.
This would scare me to death on selection Sunday...
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Post by Fan Of The Game on Feb 15, 2005 13:35:39 GMT -5
I don't think we'd have much of a shot at all with only 10 Big East wins overall. But that's not going to happen.
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FOTP
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Post by FOTP on Feb 15, 2005 13:38:19 GMT -5
I think we'd have a shot. I'd put it at 33%.
No bad wins and a couple of strong wins on the road against top teams in the RPI would look good.
The problem would be our last 10 games would be 6-4. It would come down to the right teams winning the conferences and the Hoyas getting the benefit of the doubt.
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guru
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Post by guru on Feb 15, 2005 13:46:08 GMT -5
Here's how I see the scenarios for the rest of the season:
4 wins or more, however we get them (reg. season or reg. season + BET) = dancing with good seed
3-3, down the stretch, plus at least a win in BET: dancing, with at worst 8/9 seed
3-3, loss in BET: on the bubble, but probably in with a double digit seed
2-4, plus one win and a loss in BET: on the bubble, and heavily dependant on how other teams fare
2-4, plus a loss in BET: bubble bursts; we're in NIT-Land.
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HOYAPLAYA
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IT'S TIME FOR A RUNNNNNNN!!!!!!
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Post by HOYAPLAYA on Feb 15, 2005 13:48:27 GMT -5
At this point, 11-5 is a lock no matter what the hell happens in the mid-majors. We are 8-3 and to get to 11 wins, we would have to at least beat either UConn, ND or Nova. If the victory is against ND or Nova, that gives them their 6th loss with a sweep of the regular season so they are out before us. Does anyone really think that the Big East is going to get screwed this year when it comes to Selection Sunday. All you have to do is look at some of the terrible losses/recent records by the bubble teams from the other major conferences (LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Miami, Ga Tech,Indiana, Ohio St and Minn) to understand that the Big East is sending at least 6 to the dance unless both stumble to 8-8. I think the Big East is sending a 9-7 team to the tourney this year. However, that team will definitely need to win the first BET game on Wednesday to get in. Don't discount the fact that everyone is talking about how deep the Big East is right now when it comes down to picking the 6th place Big East team vs. the 5th place ACC, SEC, Big Ten or Big 12 team. I think the fact that the last 2 national champs came from the Big East will also factor into some preferential treatment come Selection Sunday. Only time will tell, but I'm pretty certain about this one.
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