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Post by Fan Of The Game on Feb 15, 2005 13:49:28 GMT -5
Here's how I see the scenarios for the rest of the season: 4 wins or more, however we get them (reg. season or reg. season + BET) = dancing with good seed 3-3, down the stretch, plus at least a win in BET: dancing, with at worst 8/9 seed 3-3, loss in BET: on the bubble, but probably in with a double digit seed 2-4, plus one win and a loss in BET: on the bubble, and heavily dependant on how other teams fare 2-4, plus a loss in BET: bubble bursts; we're in NIT-Land. Keep in mind, we only have five games left before the BET.
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Feb 15, 2005 13:50:19 GMT -5
Here's how I see the scenarios for the rest of the season: 4 wins or more, however we get them (reg. season or reg. season + BET) = dancing with good seed 3-3, down the stretch, plus at least a win in BET: dancing, with at worst 8/9 seed 3-3, loss in BET: on the bubble, but probably in with a double digit seed 2-4, plus one win and a loss in BET: on the bubble, and heavily dependant on how other teams fare 2-4, plus a loss in BET: bubble bursts; we're in NIT-Land. Guru, is it safe to assume that you're including Saturday's win over WVU in those calculations? Because otherwise, we only have five games, plus the BET.
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FOTP
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Post by FOTP on Feb 15, 2005 13:56:48 GMT -5
Not sure if anyone noticed this, but the Big East just dropped down to the #4 rated conference behind the Big 12.
NOT a good sign in terms of teams invited to the Big Dance. Our Non-Conference schedule is now tied for number 23 out of 31 conferences listed.
That is just AWFUL.
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Hoyaholic
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Post by Hoyaholic on Feb 15, 2005 14:06:57 GMT -5
I'd be curious to see what our RPI would look like if we took out the Illinois game (that we lucked into at the last second) and replaced it with one of our usual SW MEAC State games.
My guess is that without that game our RPI would be pretty low, and we'd be hearing the usual cupcake comments.
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guru
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Post by guru on Feb 15, 2005 14:30:40 GMT -5
for some reason I still had it in my head that we had six games left.
Still say the only way we're a lock is if we get four more wins. If we have 19 wins and double digit losses, I'll be nervous come Selection Sunday!
But I'm confident that the team is good enough to make all this stuff moot. They're well coached and disciplined, so the goal should be to win out the regular season and make serious noise in NYC, as preposterous as that notion would have seemed six weeks ago
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hoyadrummer
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Post by hoyadrummer on Feb 15, 2005 14:41:31 GMT -5
I think the one thing people overrate is the position in a conference. My impression is the committee doesn't look at it and say "The Hoyas were 5th in the conference so they get in". They need to compare folks from different conferences and just lay out the resumes against each other. The keys are: Who you beat? Where you beat them? and When you beat them (ie. last 10 games). I seem to remember Jerry Palm of collegerpi.com had a write-up a couple years ago that said that the committee had never skipped in the standings when giving at large bids, e.g. they never take the sixth place team as an at large team unless they also take the fifth place team. Anyone know if that is still true?
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 15, 2005 14:50:00 GMT -5
They did it in the Big East a couple of years ago, although that was a case of two divisions. Whether they've ever reached over a team to pick another team in the same division, I don't know.
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FOTP
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Post by FOTP on Feb 15, 2005 14:54:25 GMT -5
It's not true. Granted it doesn't happen very often, but usually it seems to work out that the better records have a better RPI.
The thing that really messes up the Big East this year is the unbalanced schedule. The fact we don't play every teams twice like in other years really has a strange affect on RPIs etc.
My gut is that old ways of looking at things are out the door this year.
Once again...just two years ago two teams in the Big East missed the tournament with 10-6 records and RPIs of 42 and 49 respectively.
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FOTP
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Post by FOTP on Feb 15, 2005 14:58:11 GMT -5
This is from Jerry Palm re: Bracketology. Interesting read.
Important Conference standings. Only seven times has the selection committee skipped over one team in the conference (or division, if the conference is split) standings to give an at-large bid to another, and 2004 was the first time it had happened since 1998.
High RPI rating. Highest rated, eligible team left out: #33 Oklahoma in 1994. Lowest rated team to receive at-large bid: #74 New Mexico in 1999. Next lowest: #66 Minnesota in 1995. The RPI gets teams considered, but no team gets in on RPI alone.
Coaches ratings. One coach from each conference, selected by the NABC, votes for the top 15 teams in his region (East, Midwest, South and West). Those aggregate votes are provided to the committee for consideration. This information is not made available to the public.
Rated in polls. I don't know if polls are specifically considered, but Utah St in 2004 became the first ranked team left out since UNLV in 1993. Note that the voters in the coaches poll are also one per conference, as selected by the NABC. It is not known if those are the same voters who provide regional ratings to the committee.
Good conference record. Nine teams have gotten in with a conference record under .500. In fact, two each in 1994 and 1998. That means 32-33 of the at-large teams are .500 or better in conference.
Good finish to season. This is measured by the committee as record in last 10 games.
Good road record. No one plays home games in the tournament. The committee considers this important enough that they changed the RPI formula in 2004 to give more weight to road wins.
Tough non-conference schedule. The committee has left teams out before primarily because of weak non-conference schedules.
Wins over teams in the top 50. Only five teams since 1994 have received bids without one.
Injuries and suspensions to players. If a key player misses a few games because of an injury or suspension, that is taken into consideration by the committee, as long as that player is expected to play in the tournament. However, if a player is lost for the year, a team may have to re-prove itself to some degree.
Conference RPI Ratings. They are calculated and in the room, so they must matter somehow, but I don't know how they're used. Conferences don't get bids, teams do, so they're not used for determining any concept of how many teams a conference "deserves."
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FOTP
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Post by FOTP on Feb 15, 2005 14:59:44 GMT -5
Oh and here is the other side of the equation...more interesting reading.
Irrelevant Past tournament performance. Each season stands on its own, as it should.
Number of wins. There's no magic number of wins (ie 20) that automatically gets teams in. That said, only two eligible teams from the big six has ever been left out with 20 or more against Division I teams (Alabama - 2001, Syracuse - 2002). Still, nothing is guaranteed.
Marquee player/coach.
Perceived TV marketability. All the ads are sold. CBS doesn't need the help.
Friends on the committee. Although my faith in this is shaken with New Mexico's inclusion in 1999. Their AD and the commissioner of their new conference were both on the committee.
Fan support. This isn't the bowls. For the most part, venues sell out or nearly do. Geography plays a role in site placement, but having great fans won't get a team in that doesn't deserve it.
Number of teams from a conference. There's no decision process involving how many teams a conference "deserves." Like I said: conferences don't get bids, teams do.
My opinion. I get better at reading the committee's collective mind almost every year, but like every good mutual fund, past performance does not guarantee future results!
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Feb 15, 2005 15:08:40 GMT -5
One interesting note. Our win at Davidson could actually wind up as a big road win, as they are currently sitting at #55 in the RPI, and could sneak into the top 50 with an unblemished last two games, and winning their conference tournament. If we win one of the Nova-ND-UConn games, we'll have 5 top 50 wins (including at least three on the road) which should definitely help in the selection process.
Go Hoyas -- Beat ND!
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FOTP
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Post by FOTP on Feb 15, 2005 15:21:08 GMT -5
I've been doing some additional research into teams that didn't make it into the tournament with seemingly good RPI's (40s) and good confernece records.
The key is winning games on the road and not losing dumb games. Even BC and SHU two years ago basically won at home and didn't really have any "good" wins.
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ShimmyJr
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Post by ShimmyJr on Feb 15, 2005 15:25:13 GMT -5
i think you guys are teetering on the ledge here - if we go 10-6 in conference and lose in the first round of the BET, I think that we are better than 50-50 in the tournament - all the pundits say that 10 wins in the Big East will get us in AND our RPI would probably only drop into the 40s or early 50s at worst, so I don't see that as condemning us, especially considering some of the crap-ass teams being included in brackets at the moment...
if this is the case, it would definitely come down to the championship week and the conference tournaments, but as long as we get most of the top teams winning their conferences in the mid-majors, i think we would be in at 18-10, albeit one of the last at-larges probably.
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FOTP
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Post by FOTP on Feb 15, 2005 15:28:31 GMT -5
Shimmy- Only reason we worry is the scenario you paint as us being 50/50 was the exact scenario that got BC and SHU left out of the dance with RPIs of 49 and 42 respectively just two years ago.
The worst thing to do is assume a certain record will get us into the tournament for sure.
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Feb 15, 2005 15:34:46 GMT -5
BC and SHU were not 10-6...they were 9-7 and the Big East was considered to be in a DOWN YEAR. The Big East is considered to be in an UP YEAR and if we finish 10-6, there will be a lot of hoopla in the media and the sports world if we or any other team who finishes 10-6 gets snubbed. I don't think the selection committee wants to do that in favor of letting an undeserved ACC bid in...or Pac 10 or SEC or BigX. Just saying, the Big East won't be stealing a spot from a mid major, but from one of the DOWN big boys.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Feb 15, 2005 15:42:55 GMT -5
Shimmy- Only reason we worry is the scenario you paint as us being 50/50 was the exact scenario that got BC and SHU left out of the dance with RPIs of 49 and 42 respectively just two years ago. The worst thing to do is assume a certain record will get us into the tournament for sure. Seton Hall's highest rated Road Win: at GU, in OT, when GU had an RPI of 100. Seton Hall was 3-8 on the road, and 1-1 in the BE tourney. Seton Hall was 5-11 versus RPI Top 100. They had only two RPI Top 50 wins, both at home. BC is different. I'm not sure what kept them out. There was quite a howl about it, though. Won at UConn (Top 50) and at NC State, St John's, Providence, Iowa State (top 100). 9-4 on the Road, 8-8 versus Top 100, 1-4 versus Top 50. Our resume is different, I think, right now. But, if we win SJU and Prov and lose the other three, going into the BE, and lose in the BE round 1: Last 10: 5-5 Road: 5-4 plus 2-1 neutral. Significant Road Wins: 22 Nova, 34 Pitt Top 100: 5-8 Top 50: 2-6 Top 25: 1-6 Yeah, that's pretty borderline. Of course, I feel like that is pretty worst-case.
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Post by Fan Of The Game on Feb 15, 2005 15:44:12 GMT -5
BC and SHU were not 10-6...they were 9-7 and the Big East was considered to be in a DOWN YEAR. The Big East is considered to be in an UP YEAR and if we finish 10-6, there will be a lot of hoopla in the media and the sports world if we or any other team who finishes 10-6 gets snubbed. I don't think the selection committee wants to do that in favor of letting an undeserved ACC bid in...or Pac 10 or SEC or BigX. Just saying, the Big East won't be stealing a spot from a mid major, but from one of the DOWN big boys. No really...they were 10-6. It was 2002-2003. BC actually tied for the Big East east lead and was left out. www.bigeast.org/reference/records/mbball/
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FOTP
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Post by FOTP on Feb 15, 2005 15:44:28 GMT -5
Not true. I just looked it up. Two years ago BC and SHU were 10-6 in the Big East regular season and the conference was ranked #4 overall (same as this year).
Only 4 teams made the dance including a 10-6 UCONN and a 10-6 ND (although both had very high RPIs).
The two teams in the 40's in the RPI missed out with a 10-6 record in conference.
Heck SHU and BC actually won 1 BE tournament game each that year and then lost to UCONN and Pitt respectively and didn't get in.
All I'm saying is not to be naive about the chances of getting in. It's not a lock at 10-6 no matter what the buzz was on ESPN etc.
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the_way
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Post by the_way on Feb 15, 2005 15:49:15 GMT -5
RPI is not the end all for the selection committee. The name of the game is Money. They will put who they want,and match up teams who they want. Even if we get in, we won't get the proper seeding like an ACC team will. Duke gets favorable seeding in favorable regional brackets every year, because they bring ratings when they play. The only thing we can control is what we can do on the basketball court, and that is by winning ball games. wE can't get caught up in this win here, win there, hope this team loses, etc. its a waste of time if we don't win ball games. That is what we should be focusing on.
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ShimmyJr
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Post by ShimmyJr on Feb 15, 2005 15:53:32 GMT -5
fotp and fan of the game,
i understand both of your points and i take them into consideration - but while you are right about the 10-6 records of SHU and BC two years ago, we are really only looking at BC as an applicable precedent since SHU didn't have jack q. squat on their resume...
I am NOT saying it would be a lock at 10-6...I am just saying that I view a 10-6 record with our resume coming out of this year's conference more optimistically than you guys do - i.e. at least 50-50 that we get it....
I will riot in the streets if some scrubby team like Minnesota or Memphis or Iowa State get into the dance and we don't - it will be chaos
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