Updated RPI - huh?

[FOTP]

It has very little to do with money actually. The advertising slots are already pre-sold and the rights are already done with CBS. The teams playing each other does nothing to whether the NCAA makes more money. All of the sites are sold out already so it doesn't really matter who plays who.

I totally agree the RPI doesn't mean everything. However, the history of it shows that it's a pretty good prognosticator of who gets in and where they are seeded.

[the_way]

FOTP said:

It has very little to do with money actually. The advertising slots are already pre-sold and the rights are already done with CBS. The teams playing each other does nothing to whether the NCAA makes more money. All of the sites are sold out already so it doesn't really matter who plays who.

I totally agree the RPI doesn't mean everything. However, the history of it shows that it's a pretty good prognosticator of who gets in and where they are seeded.

Who gets in, yes. Where they are seeded, I'll beg to differ. And yes, it DOES matter, who is playing. Ratings mean something when it comes to money.

[FOTP]

I hate to do this because at the end of the day I believe you're probably right, but SHU had two wins against top 14 RPI teams that year (ND- #14 and Pitt-#8). Combine that with not a single bad loss all year and a SOS of 13.

The reality is that SHU had a better resume than BC that year. Without a doubt.

[SFHoya99]

FOTP said:

I hate to do this because at the end of the day I believe you're probably right, but SHU had two wins against top 14 RPI teams that year (ND- #14 and Pitt-#8). Combine that with not a single bad loss all year and a SOS of 13.

The reality is that SHU had a better resume than BC that year. Without a doubt.

The committee, from what I've heard, tremendously discounts home wins. It doesn't want the Rutgers and Florida States of the world. It considers all tournament games to be road games. Seton Hall almost no road wins, let alone ones of significance.

Hall and BC both had two Top 50 wins. Except BC's were on the road. And they didn't have the Rutgers loss. And had a better record v Top 100.

BC had the better portfolio, but the overal point is made.

If our RPI slips into the 40s, 10 wins is very borderline, especially if they are versus PC and SJU.

[FOTP]

Maybe 10 years from now when the CBS contract comes up, but the ratings have been very good no matter what year it is and who is playing. The NCAA tournament has great ratings no matter what.

Oh and actually the RPI is a pretty strong indicator of where people are seeded historically. It's a very good indicator from a statistics perspetive either way with accuracy in seeding within 1 spot either way of 75%.

[Fan Of The Game]

ShimmyJr said:

fotp and fan of the game,

i understand both of your points and i take them into consideration - but while you are right about the 10-6 records of SHU and BC two years ago, we are really only looking at BC as an applicable precedent since SHU didn't have jack q. squat on their resume...

I am NOT saying it would be a lock at 10-6...I am just saying that I view a 10-6 record with our resume coming out of this year's conference more optimistically than you guys do - i.e. at least 50-50 that we get it....

I will riot in the streets if some scrubby team like Minnesota or Memphis or Iowa State get into the dance and we don't - it will be chaos

The funny thing is, if we end up going 10-6 and don't win a Big East game, I'll be more disappointed that we went 10-6 and didn't win a Big East game than I'd be mad at the selection committee for not taking us. JTIII has really raised the bar. Anything less than 3 more wins this year and I'll be mad.

(Sure, I'll look back a month later and appreciate how much better we did then our expectations, but initially I'll be mad).

[ArlingtonHoya]

Though I think we can all agree to the whole “we need to take one game at a time” philosophy, I do think it’s interesting to continue exploring our tournament chances. With that in mind, a few responses to posts above and other general notes:

• Whom should we be rooting for/against these days? Well, we certainly need to root for Davidson, Oral Roberts, Temple and the rest of our non-conference opponents more than anyone (since our Big East opponents are mostly facing each other). The list of those we should root against is much longer but still worth bearing in mind. Notre Dame and Villanova are probably at the top of this list, since the committee may deny it but they clearly consider (if only subconsciously) how many teams they’re taking from each conference. Also, we have to root for all the highly-ranked mid-major teams (Gonzaga, Miami-OH, Pacific, Southern Illinois, Old Dominion, St Mary’s, etc) to win their conference tournaments instead of stealing at-large bids. Then there’s a long list of major conference bubble teams that are projected to surpass us in some of the RPI scenarios I outlined above. These include Texas, DePaul, UVA (?), Miami-FL, Ga Tech, Stanford, Marquette, Iowa, Minnesota, LSU, Florida, etc.
  
  
• To the point bmartin made above, in those games in which other Big East teams are facing each other, we would generally want to root for the team with the better record to win (their W-L % would be hurt more by a loss than their opponent’s would be helped by the win). On a similar note, some have argued that home or away wins are more important for us down the stretch. From a mathematical perspective, if you look at a two-game stretch with one home and one away game, winning the road game and losing the home game would be more beneficial than winning the home game and losing the road game. Therefore, to the extent you care to root harder for us in some games than others, know that road wins benefit us more (if only slightly).
  
  
• Some have discussed what effect this week’s games will have on our RPI ranking. By my rough estimates, two wins would put us in the 33 range (from 38), one win would put us around 40, and two losses would put us at 53. Needless to say, all of that depends on how the teams around us fare, but this is certainly a pivotal week. Several have noted that the two road games would increase our RPI “win” total by 3.2; unfortunately, St John’s has a really harsh effect on our strength of schedule factor.
  
  
• I couldn’t agree more with those who have pointed out that the RPI is far from the only factor considered by the selection committee. My only point in calculating our “projected RPI rankings” in my earlier post was to show that our RPI with only three more wins will be a major flaw in our tournament resume. Previously, I’d expected that an 11-5 record in the Big East would be our ticket to a 7 seed; however, I don’t think the committee would be so generous to a team with an RPI ranking of 51, a 3-3 record in its last 6, and no marquee OOC wins. Just my guess.
  
  
• A win at ND tomorrow night would improve our RPI ranking to somewhere in the low 30s, put ND’s somewhere in the low 50s, and make it almost impossible for ND to get a bid without us getting one also. A loss would leave us around 40 or 41, and we’d have a lot of work remaining.

Best of luck to the Hoyas tomorrow night…

[bmartin]

For RPI, the best result would be for the BE teams that GU plays twice to beat the teams GU plays only once.

In games between teams that the Hoya's play the same number of games, the RPI effect either way would be too minor to worry about. In those cases, I would root for the result that improves Georgetown's conference standing.

Except:
UConn @ Providence - UConn is the RPI pick, but I would go for the standings here. Finishing ahead of or even with UConn is better than a little RPI bump.

[TrueHoyaBlue]

#


# To the point bmartin made above, in those games in which other Big East teams are facing each other, we would generally want to root for the team with the better record to win (their W-L % would be hurt more by a loss than their opponent’s would be helped by the win). On a similar note, some have argued that home or away wins are more important for us down the stretch. From a mathematical perspective, if you look at a two-game stretch with one home and one away game, winning the road game and losing the home game would be more beneficial than winning the home game and losing the road game. Therefore, to the extent you care to root harder for us in some games than others, know that road wins benefit us more (if only slightly).

Actually, it all depends on whether the team has a winning or losing record going into that game. If a team's winning percentage is above .500, it's better for them to win at home an lose on the road (and vice versa)...

Why? Because a home win and road loss adds .6 wins and .6 losses to the team's record. A road win and a home loss adds 1.4 wins and 1.4 losses.

In that regard, the road win/home loss combo gets the team closer to .500 than the


Here's an example, with a winning team.

Say Hoyatalk State University has a record of 4-2, for a win pct of .66667. Splitting two games would worsen the teams overall record (In a non-adjusted setting, the team would then have a record of 5-3, or .6250).

In an adjusted Win pct setting, a road win/home loss combo adds 1.4 to both the win and loss columns, giving the team a record of 5.4 and 3.4 for a WP of .6136

On the other hand, winning the home game and losing the road game only adds .6 to each column, leaving HSU with a record of 4.6-2.6 or a pct of .6389.


In other words, the more "split points" the closer a team gets to .500. Soooo, (while we want all of our prior opponents to win) we especially want our opponents with losing records to win on the road, while we really want our opponents with winning records to take care of business at home.

[SaxaCD]

If an 11-5 Big East team, no matter who it is, isn't invited to the NCAA's, the selection process is a joke. Period.

[MEGAFAN]

Agreed.

I would even say this about a 10-6 BE team if they have not faltered down the stretch (and if the BE is not in a atypically down year).

Either way, let's just beat the Irish on their home court. Why? Because we are better than them!

LET'S GO HOYAS!!! NIX NOTRE DAME!

[Cambridge]

I agree. There is absolutely no integrity to the process if an 11-5 team is left out. I don't care what the circumstances. We would be 19-8 going into the BET.

If the selection committee thinks that a MD team that:

1) will probably finish 9-7 in the ACC
2) will probably finish 18-9 overall
3) whose currently 1-5 on the road
4) lost their ONLY OOC road game
5) split their two "neutral" games (they were at the MCI)
6) probably tie for fifth in the ACC with Miami


Well, if that happens...I'm speechless.
well, quite frankly let's close down shop.

[Bando]

I guess this might make me a little weird, but right now I'd much rather cheer for whatever pushes us farther up in the conference standings than whatever will make our RPI a few spots higher. Namely, this means rooting against Syracuse (not very hard to do, obviously), BC, Villanova, ND, and UConn. I mean, we're a freaking half game out of second right now!

Obviously capturing a bye in the Big East Tournament is of the upmost importance, but since the top/middle of the conference has so much parity, a top two seed can be a much easier game than a 4 seed. And even with the hype, can the committee take a 8-8 or 9-7 Villanova team over us if we're 2nd or 3rd in the conference by then? I doubt it.

But I guess the situation that makes everyone happy is if the Hoyas just keep winning. I mean, stranger things have happened this season already than us winning out the rest of the way. 13-3, baby!

[michiganhoya]

I just sat through a 3 hour finance seminar. This thread got me through the last 2 hours of it. Great work! This is an excellent discusssion. Keep it going.

[Locker]

A couple of thoughts:

1. The Committee's focus on road and neutral court performance will help us a lot. According to Joe Lunardi's latest rankings, if you rank the 326 teams based only on their road/neutral games, the Hoyas are #11 in the country, ahead of North Carolina among others.

2. I think Grandpa makes a great point about the effect of the new RPI formula. There's an underlying assumption to most of this debate that the new RPI will be at least as influential in Committee decisionmaking as the old RPI. We do not know that to be the case. Under the old RPI we would not be a bubble team at 10-6.

3. Does anyone know if the Dance Wishlist rankings at www.dwhoops.com reflect the new home/road adjustment to the RPI? Last I checked it had us at #22 overall. I don't know if the improvement over our RPI rating is due to the exclusion of the home/road adjustment or the fixing of the RPI glitch (i.e., that your rating may go up following a loss or down following a win). Hopefully it's the latter. Supposedly these ratings have been a better predictor of seeding than the RPI over the years.

4. My prediction: 12-4 and a Big East Tournament championship gets us in as a 3 seed.

HOYA SAXA

[Cambridge]

Here is the worst case scenario...all you chicken littles.

Projected Seeds for BET:

1. Boston College 9-1 (20-1) RPI #6 SOS #78
Will win: Rutgers, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, @rutgers
Will lose: Syracuse, @villanova
Final Predicted Record: 13-3 (24-3)

2. UConn 7-3 (15-6) RPI #24 SOS #21
Will win: @providence, @rutgers, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Syracuse
Will lose: @pittsburgh,
Final Predicted Record: 12-4 (20-7)

3. Syracuse 9-3 (22-4) RPI #17 SOS #76
Will win: @bc, St. John's, Providence
Will lose: @uconn
Final Predicted Record: 12-4 (26-4)*

4. Villanova 5-5 (14-6) RPI #20 SOS #17
Will win: Bucknell, Pittsburgh, BC, georgetown , Seton Hall, @st. John's
Will lose: @seton Hall,
Final Predicted Record: 10-6 (21-6)

5. Georgetown 8-3 (16-6) RPI #38 SOS #58
Will win: @st. John's, Providence
Will lose: @notre Dame, Nova, @uconn,
Final Predicted Record: 10-6 (18-9)*

6. Notre Dame 6-5 (14-7) RPI #48 SOS #55
Will win: Georgetown, @providence, UCLA, Rutgers, Pittsburgh
Will lose: @uconn
Final Predicted Record: 10-6 (19-8)**

6. Pittsburgh 8-3 (18-4) RPI #34 SOS #143
Will win: West Virginia, UConn,
Will lose: @bc, @villanova, @notre Dame
Final Predicted Record: 10-6 (19-8) **


*UConn gets tie breaker on head-to-head
**VU finishes first in the mini-conf due to a split against BC

Tie breaking proceedure:
www.bigeast.org/sports/mbball/releases/02-03-04.asp

The mini conference would include GU, ND, PU and VU...

Currently, in that mini-conference:
GU is 3-0 (with two games remaining)
PU is 1-1 (with two games remaining)
VU is 1-2 (with two games remaining)
ND is 1-3 (with two games remaining)

The worst case is we lose those two games and finish at 3-2 in the mini conf. VU is the only team who can possibly match that. They would be at 3-2 as well. The only way I can forsee them even getting into the mini conf in the first place is a win @bc...so they would have the tie-breaker. As you can see, the worst seed I can realistically see us getting is a five seed in the BET. So stop looking for the sky to fall.

[dTRAIN]

As crazy as this may sound, if we go 10-6, I'd rather be the 6 seed than the 5 seed. I know that lessens our chance of winning the BET, but if we go 10-6 and lose the 4-5 game to Nova, that is the scenario that scares me the most in terms of admission to the dance.

At that point we are a genuine 50/50 to get in. If we have to be 10-6, I'd rather be the 6 seed with a chance to get the 11th win against PC (no gimmie after how they looked tonight).

That being said, let's just get get to 11-5 and worry about seeding!

d