sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Dec 17, 2008 16:09:23 GMT -5
If Blake Griffin didn't get injured last year he may have very well decided to turn pro I think thats besides the point though. It doesn't really matter why he made the decision, but the fact that he gave up a lower lottery pick for a chance at a higher one, and how well its working out is what matters. I think its more that a guy can go from a really good freshman that would be mid lotto, to an amazing sophomore who is basically a lock for the number one spot. Also I think if Summers keeps playing at this level you'll see him getting a lot more attention, and Monroe getting a little less attention.
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FewFAC
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Post by FewFAC on Dec 17, 2008 16:41:54 GMT -5
With Isaiah out of the draft picking process, idiotic lottery picks are sure to take a big hit, however McHale and Jordan are more than capable of picking up the slack.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 17, 2008 16:45:58 GMT -5
With Isaiah out of the draft picking process, idiotic lottery picks are sure to take a big hit, however McHale and Jordan are more than capable of picking up the slack. See, that's not right. McHale isn't actually that bad at drafting. The problem is he then trades the good player on draft day for a bad one
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FewFAC
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Post by FewFAC on Dec 17, 2008 18:44:51 GMT -5
With Isaiah out of the draft picking process, idiotic lottery picks are sure to take a big hit, however McHale and Jordan are more than capable of picking up the slack. See, that's not right. McHale isn't actually that bad at drafting. The problem is he then trades the good player on draft day for a bad one Point taken. I wonder who the Cs will dump onto the Twin Cities this year.
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Dec 17, 2008 19:51:30 GMT -5
See, that's not right. McHale isn't actually that bad at drafting. The problem is he then trades the good player on draft day for a bad one Point taken. I wonder who the Cs will dump onto the Twin Cities this year. Mr. McHale, the Celtics would like Al Jefferson back, would you take Scalabrine?
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RBHoya
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Post by RBHoya on Dec 17, 2008 20:01:38 GMT -5
People are terrific at convincing themselves of things they want to believe. Yes, he could be the next Blake Griffin but there's also the potential that he gets hurt or his numbers stay even or fall off a tad. If your sophomore year numbers are the same as your freshman year numbers you'll fall because people don't think you have as much potential. The safest thing to do in the NBA draft if you're a high level prospect is to go early because everybody loves potential. That's why a ton of freshman have been in the draft the last few years. If you stay in school you're a known commodity, and unless you really beast on people like Griffin, people won't be too high on you.
I agree that what's currently happening with Griffin is good for those who want Greg to stay. Otherwise, there's not a whole to support the case. His mother works two jobs. He's living in some scrub Village A apartment, and has to commit hours each day to studying things he'll never need. He can keep that status quo another year, and hope his numbers balloon to a level never-before-seen under JTIII. Or, he can make millions, let his mom retire, get an upscale bachelor pad of a crib + a luxury car, and play basketball all day. I mean, I love Georgetown as much as anyone, but which one are you going with?
Funnily, when Roy Hibbert stays an extra year and slides a bit in the draft, everybody says "so what, doesn't matter, rookie contract is not a big deal, you make your big money in the NBA on your second contract." But now when people are talking about Greg leaving early, suddenly everybody thinks it's imperative he stay another year to try to be the top pick and get a bigger rookie deal. Which one is it, is a rookie deal supremely important, or is it not?
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Dec 17, 2008 20:40:46 GMT -5
People are terrific at convincing themselves of things they want to believe. Yes, he could be the next Blake Griffin but there's also the potential that he gets hurt or his numbers stay even or fall off a tad. If your sophomore year numbers are the same as your freshman year numbers you'll fall because people don't think you have as much potential. The safest thing to do in the NBA draft if you're a high level prospect is to go early because everybody loves potential. That's why a ton of freshman have been in the draft the last few years. If you stay in school you're a known commodity, and unless you really beast on people like Griffin, people won't be too high on you. I agree that what's currently happening with Griffin is good for those who want Greg to stay. Otherwise, there's not a whole to support the case. His mother works two jobs. He's living in some scrub Village A apartment, and has to commit hours each day to studying things he'll never need. He can keep that status quo another year, and hope his numbers balloon to a level never-before-seen under JTIII. Or, he can make millions, let his mom retire, get an upscale bachelor pad of a crib + a luxury car, and play basketball all day. I mean, I love Georgetown as much as anyone, but which one are you going with? Funnily, when Roy Hibbert stays an extra year and slides a bit in the draft, everybody says "so what, doesn't matter, rookie contract is not a big deal, you make your big money in the NBA on your second contract." But now when people are talking about Greg leaving early, suddenly everybody thinks it's imperative he stay another year to try to be the top pick and get a bigger rookie deal. Which one is it, is a rookie deal supremely important, or is it not? I think the answer is both, if he stays another year, he will be more ready to compete at that level therefore most likely earning a higher second contract AND getting a better rookie deal. Also Monroe doesn't have to put up Griffen like numbers to get Griffen like attention and be a higher draft pick. Of course Monroe's numbers can fall of or stay even, but the fact is if he is as good as we all think/believe he is, than I am not worried about that happening. " If you stay in school you're a known commodity, and unless you really beast on people like Griffin, people won't be too high on you." That statement is utterly false. Floridas 06-07 team say hello, and I am sure there are numerous other examples. The only reason a freshman should jump to the NBA is if they are completly dominant and don't really need another to become NBA ready, or if their stock is so rediculously high after their freshman year that they will never be able to reach it again because they are slightly overrated. Neither of these are Gregs cases at this point.
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RBHoya
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Post by RBHoya on Dec 17, 2008 21:33:13 GMT -5
I think the answer is both, if he stays another year, he will be more ready to compete at that level therefore most likely earning a higher second contract AND getting a better rookie deal. This is another one of those things that's always parroted but never really analyzed--that staying in college another year prepares you better for an NBA career. I've yet to see a lot of evidence for it. In college, basketball is part of what you focus on--you spend many more hours each day in class and studying doing/hw than you do playing or thinking about basketball. Once you're a pro, your only focus in life is on basketball. You don't have to commit several hours a day to Kant or Locke or some other old guy who doesn't matter anymore, you instead spend that time working with a shooting coach before team practice or getting some extra lifts in.... If the idea is that pro coaches are inferior to college coaches at teaching the fundamentals, I don't buy that either, cause pro coaches on the whole make a lot more money. If the best teachers of the game were in college, the pros would buy them off. And certainly the level of competition is much higher in the league. I suspect the argument is based on the idea that guys won't get as much PT in the NBA as in college... Situational, if you're good enough to be a lotto pick you're probably going to get at least a decent amount of run. And as I said, when you do play--in the games and even in practice--you're playing against top flight competition, and that's how you develop as a player. It's the same logic behind why a player who wants to develop his game opts to play in the Big East rather than the MAAC. You learn and get better by playing against players who are better than you are. As a for instance, do you think Greg Monroe would get better every day in practice next year going against run of the mill NBA 4 men like Al Harrington or David Lee, or by going against Julian Vaughn and Bryon Jansen (or equivalent)? If he is as good as we think he is and is by all accounts going to have a great season next year, don't you think NBA scouts are going to realize this as well and nab him in the first few picks of the draft? Not sure if that's the best example considering Noah would have been top 5 in '06 but fell to 10 in '07. I don't remember what Horford or Brewer's draft prospects were before they won the first title but I think they were' more mid to late round selections who hadn't wowed anybody statistically during their run (remember UF was a 3 seed and not a title favorite all year that year). I think there were like 9 freshman taken in the first round last year. If you've got talent and you leave after freshman year, somebody's going to take you (which is the same as we said about high schoolers before the age limit). The days when the only freshmen in the draft are the absolute elite talents (ie the early to mid 90s) are gone and not coming back. The idea that you should stay in school until you're certain your draft stock can't possibly get any higher is as antiquated as flat top fades or the sneaker with the built-in pump. Tons of guys "make the jump" nowadays, to the point where staying 4 years sets off red flags. The longterm difference between going #7 and going #1 isn't huge (IMO)--not enough to turn down penthouses, mercedes and fillet mignon for another year of village a D block, GUTS buses and mac & cheese at Leos. Not trying to be a wise ass sleepy, I just think it's one of those situations where people have a clear bias and they search for reasons to support the conclusion that their bias pushes them toward. Happens all the time in political discussions. If you step back and take a look at it with no bias though, I really can't the logic behind staying in school if you are gonna get picked between 6 and 12, unless you're REALLY sure you're going to be a top 1-4 pick the following year (in which case, I have to question how anybody could be that sure, and again people on Hoyatalk are going to go out of their way to support the position that he's "a likely top 5 pick next year", but again the hoyatalk crowd is not without bias).
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RDF
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Post by RDF on Dec 17, 2008 23:12:07 GMT -5
Roy Hibbert didn't have the chance to ever be considered the top player in any draft--Greg Monroe does. There is your biggest difference.
Stats also matter less when your team is winning. Patrick Ewing didn't average 20 ppg at any point in his career--and it didn't effect him because he played on winning teams which were loaded.
The NBA draft process/who's leaving/staying isn't important to even bother with now--we've got an entire season to deal with and enjoy.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 18, 2008 1:28:34 GMT -5
I guess one thing i never get is if my choices are Be a millionaire now or enjoy 4 years of college and then be a millionaire I choose the latter everytime. The NBA will always be there. There's a very small chance they might get seriously injured but that's such a small small chance.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Dec 18, 2008 3:34:07 GMT -5
I think the answer is both, if he stays another year, he will be more ready to compete at that level therefore most likely earning a higher second contract AND getting a better rookie deal. This is another one of those things that's always parroted but never really analyzed--that staying in college another year prepares you better for an NBA career. I've yet to see a lot of evidence for it. In college, basketball is part of what you focus on--you spend many more hours each day in class and studying doing/hw than you do playing or thinking about basketball. Once you're a pro, your only focus in life is on basketball. You don't have to commit several hours a day to Kant or Locke or some other old guy who doesn't matter anymore, you instead spend that time working with a shooting coach before team practice or getting some extra lifts in.... If the idea is that pro coaches are inferior to college coaches at teaching the fundamentals, I don't buy that either, cause pro coaches on the whole make a lot more money. If the best teachers of the game were in college, the pros would buy them off. And certainly the level of competition is much higher in the league. I suspect the argument is based on the idea that guys won't get as much PT in the NBA as in college... Situational, if you're good enough to be a lotto pick you're probably going to get at least a decent amount of run. And as I said, when you do play--in the games and even in practice--you're playing against top flight competition, and that's how you develop as a player. It's the same logic behind why a player who wants to develop his game opts to play in the Big East rather than the MAAC. You learn and get better by playing against players who are better than you are. As a for instance, do you think Greg Monroe would get better every day in practice next year going against run of the mill NBA 4 men like Al Harrington or David Lee, or by going against Julian Vaughn and Bryon Jansen (or equivalent)? If he is as good as we think he is and is by all accounts going to have a great season next year, don't you think NBA scouts are going to realize this as well and nab him in the first few picks of the draft? Not sure if that's the best example considering Noah would have been top 5 in '06 but fell to 10 in '07. I don't remember what Horford or Brewer's draft prospects were before they won the first title but I think they were' more mid to late round selections who hadn't wowed anybody statistically during their run (remember UF was a 3 seed and not a title favorite all year that year). I think there were like 9 freshman taken in the first round last year. If you've got talent and you leave after freshman year, somebody's going to take you (which is the same as we said about high schoolers before the age limit). The days when the only freshmen in the draft are the absolute elite talents (ie the early to mid 90s) are gone and not coming back. The idea that you should stay in school until you're certain your draft stock can't possibly get any higher is as antiquated as flat top fades or the sneaker with the built-in pump. Tons of guys "make the jump" nowadays, to the point where staying 4 years sets off red flags. The longterm difference between going #7 and going #1 isn't huge (IMO)--not enough to turn down penthouses, mercedes and fillet mignon for another year of village a D block, GUTS buses and mac & cheese at Leos. Not trying to be a wise ass sleepy, I just think it's one of those situations where people have a clear bias and they search for reasons to support the conclusion that their bias pushes them toward. Happens all the time in political discussions. If you step back and take a look at it with no bias though, I really can't the logic behind staying in school if you are gonna get picked between 6 and 12, unless you're REALLY sure you're going to be a top 1-4 pick the following year (in which case, I have to question how anybody could be that sure, and again people on Hoyatalk are going to go out of their way to support the position that he's "a likely top 5 pick next year", but again the hoyatalk crowd is not without bias). In regards to the being better prepared to face NBA competition. I wasn't saying a that he would improve in the offseason in the NBA just as much as he would in a college offseason. I was trying to say that he would only have ONE off-season to be NBA ready, where as if he stays in college another year he would have one off-season for college and one offseason in the NBA to be ready to compete and much better because of it. Right now I don't think he is ready to play in the NBA, right now he still seems pretty raw but is able to get by on natural ability, which is pretty scary considering how well he is doing. Personally I think after we face Uconn, Pitt and Notre Dame, we will have a much better grasp on what/how much he needs to improve. I am also not saying that no one would take Greg, or that NBA scouts don't see his potential as well. We all know that if he left he would be taken in the first round. Just because 9 freshman were taken in the first round last year, doesn't mean all 9 freshman made the best decisions for themselves. I think the rest though we will have to agree to disagree, because it really just comes down to a mentality. Your feelings are that you should strike while the metal is hot and leave once your guarenteed lotto. I personally unless you guarenteed top 5, or overrated you should stay another year. Especially if your a freshman.. Neither is more right that the other, its just a different way of thinking. I will add this though, if the idea that Jeff Green would have been coming back had he not been guarenteed that 5th spot are true, than I have a feeling that I am not alone in my mentatlity.
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Dec 18, 2008 4:33:58 GMT -5
There's are other aspects to this as well. Suggesting he is taking courses that will never provide value to him later in life is not necessarily an accurate description. FOr some kids? Yes it would be. What I've read of Greg is he likes school and he's a good student. Taking esoteric Philosophy courses may or may not be what he wants, but there are plenty of great options and they provide real value to a person's life.
Not to say that alone is the overwhelming reason to stay.
Practice? College kids probably get more opportunities to practice during the season that NBA players. Given the number of games and the travel, there isn't that much time for practice. And the coaches are going to focus on their core guys, not the bench warmers. Also, comparing NBA coaches to your average College coaches is one thing, but we aren't talking about average college coaches, we are talking about JT3. Just look at Jeff Green, Roy and Pat Jr. to see how well this coach and his staff develop players.
Finally, going to work for the rest of your life at 18/19? Or hanging with your peeps enjoying the college experience for another year or two? going for that national title... which also creates market value for you in image, profile and endorsements? There is a lot of value in that too.
Not to say any of these arguments are definitive. It depends on the individual, his family, what he wants for himself, how much he enjoys the classroom experience, the college friends and lifestyle. And... how ready he is to jump right into the NBA as a star or at least as a starter. None of us can know what the best decision for Greg might be. I will say he appears to me to be a really smart, level-headed kid who enjoys school, likes the team, likes the coaching staff, and has an unlimited ceiling. We should appreciate him while he is here... as long as that may turn out to be.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Dec 18, 2008 9:15:46 GMT -5
Sir, the flip side is you aren't really going to work for the rest of your life. Based on normal NBA shelf life, you'll probably be out of work at 27 or so with tons of dough. On the practice front it depends. You probably get more team practice time in college but less individual work. If you watch an NBA walk through, the young guys normally work before & after these sessions every day.
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Dec 18, 2008 9:44:30 GMT -5
There's are other aspects to this as well. Suggesting he is taking courses that will never provide value to him later in life is not necessarily an accurate description. FOr some kids? Yes it would be. What I've read of Greg is he likes school and he's a good student. Taking esoteric Philosophy courses may or may not be what he wants, but there are plenty of great options and they provide real value to a person's life. Not to say that alone is the overwhelming reason to stay. Practice? College kids probably get more opportunities to practice during the season that NBA players. Given the number of games and the travel, there isn't that much time for practice. And the coaches are going to focus on their core guys, not the bench warmers. Also, comparing NBA coaches to your average College coaches is one thing, but we aren't talking about average college coaches, we are talking about JT3. Just look at Jeff Green, Roy and Pat Jr. to see how well this coach and his staff develop players. Finally, going to work for the rest of your life at 18/19? Or hanging with your peeps enjoying the college experience for another year or two? going for that national title... which also creates market value for you in image, profile and endorsements? There is a lot of value in that too. Not to say any of these arguments are definitive. It depends on the individual, his family, what he wants for himself, how much he enjoys the classroom experience, the college friends and lifestyle. And... how ready he is to jump right into the NBA as a star or at least as a starter. None of us can know what the best decision for Greg might be. I will say he appears to me to be a really smart, level-headed kid who enjoys school, likes the team, likes the coaching staff, and has an unlimited ceiling. We should appreciate him while he is here... as long as that may turn out to be. Georgetown is a special place, it's like getting a phD in basketball. By the time a player leaves the school, he will have had hours and hours of training, coaching, drilling, scimmaging and thinking about the game and how to play it. Think about it, we aren't just talking about JT3 coaching him, we're talking about JT3, Burke, Hunter and Cox. Not to mention two HOF coaches JTjr and Carril. Not to mention former players like Ewing, Mutombo, Mourning, Roy, Jeff, etc. coming back and putting on clinics during the offseason. Furthermore, Georgetown has always put basketball in a larger perspective, with many of our players interning at the DOD, DOS and other government agencies during their tenure at Georgetown. This is not to say that Greg will stay beyond a year, but from everything I've read about the young man it is more likely that he amongst all his talented, highly regarded freshmen peers respects and appreciates these aspects of the Georgetown experience. That is not to say he will stay beyond one year, but its to say we have a better chance than if his name was Samardo, BJ, Tyreke or DeMar.
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Post by justabballfan on Dec 18, 2008 13:37:32 GMT -5
The advantage to being Gtown fans is that our players are smart enough and get good enough advice that they aren't leaving early to be late 2nd round picks or undrafted because they aren't delusional about their status. Sorry bro, put down the Hoya Kool-Aid. Victor Page anyone? I want to know who the hell advised Roy Hibbert too? I mean was his stock ever going to go any higher after he went toe-to-toe with Greg Oden in the Final Four? You know in NBA circles people now refer to guys who should of left, but stayed in college, and now have hurt their draft status, as pulling a Hibbert.
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kchoya
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Post by kchoya on Dec 18, 2008 13:46:03 GMT -5
The advantage to being Gtown fans is that our players are smart enough and get good enough advice that they aren't leaving early to be late 2nd round picks or undrafted because they aren't delusional about their status. Sorry bro, put down the Hoya Kool-Aid. Victor Page anyone? I want to know who the hell advised Roy Hibbert too? I mean was his stock ever going to go any higher after he went toe-to-toe with Greg Oden in the Final Four? You know in NBA circles people now refer to guys who should of left, but stayed in college, and now have hurt their draft status, as pulling a Hibbert. That's a bunch of crap. Why don't you go drink some Jim Jones kool-aid. You have no idea where he would've gone last year versus this year.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 18, 2008 13:49:49 GMT -5
The thing that always amazes me is the idea that NBA GMs follow Chad Ford rather than the other way around.
Hibbert may have gone at a different position because of relative strength or weakness of the draft, team needs or simply what GM was picking where.
But if you really think an NBA GM was going to pull Hibbert in for workouts but ignore all that for a foul-ridden game versus Greg Oden yet ignore that same game next year... c'mon, give these guys a little credit.
NBA projection isn't easy, but it isn't like the Ohio State tape wasn't still out there. Just because a website projected him higher -- that means nothing.
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Post by justabballfan on Dec 18, 2008 13:55:23 GMT -5
The Chicago Bulls would have taken Hibbert instead of Noah in the draft of 2007.
Are you really trying to argue that Hibbert did not hurt his draft stock by returning for his Senior season?
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Dec 18, 2008 14:12:43 GMT -5
The Chicago Bulls would have taken Hibbert instead of Noah in the draft of 2007. Are you really trying to argue that Hibbert did not hurt his draft stock by returning for his Senior season? I'm curious as to your source on that whole drafting thing. And I find it all especially suspect since a team planning on drafting Hibbert probably would have worked him out more, watched more tape, etc. I'm not saying Hibbert couldn't have been drafted higher. Like I ssaid, very clearly, draft position can shift for a variety of reasons that aren't linked directly to player performance. What I am saying is that I don't think Hibbert was "exposed" in any way as a senior, and certainly not in any way that wouldn't have been in workouts, film study, etc. NBA GMs are far from perfect, but especially in Hibbert's case, I don't think the actual internal opinion of him would have been much different. The guy was (and is) a risky pick. Some real upside, but only an awful GM wouldn't have been concerned over his quickness.
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DudeSlade
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Post by DudeSlade on Dec 18, 2008 14:23:41 GMT -5
The Chicago Bulls would have taken Hibbert instead of Noah in the draft of 2007. Are you really trying to argue that Hibbert did not hurt his draft stock by returning for his Senior season? Take the words of Hibbert as sufficient. He personally has said during his senior year, throughout the draft process, and even once he's been in the NBA that no matter where he would have gone in the draft, he was not ready for the NBA after last year. He said he was able to mature as much mentally as physically and in terms of his game and that he was much better prepared this year for the NBA. Hibbert would not have gone in place of Noah (unless you are saying you have direct contacts in the Bulls organization that are stating this, I find it hard to believe based on everything stated ahead of that draft). There was a lot of speculation about Hibbert to the Kings instead of Hawes, but that still was not a guarantee. If he misses those two, which could have happened easily, then he's in the same position he's in this last year only by his own admission, less prepared to handle the rigors of the NBA. Every kid has the right time for him to go to the NBA. Hibbert's time was after his senior year. O.J. Mayo was obviously ready after his freshman year and according to all reports has handled himself like a veteran. He is obviously mature beyond his years and more equipped than most of these kids to handle the NBA life. In fact, many from last year's class are. But it doesn't mean all kids are. Greg will make the right decision for himself. My comment was that I can't envision him or Summers making bad decisions regarding the draft this year because of the quality of the people around them giving them advice and because of the type of people, not just players, that JTIII recruits. You had to stretch all the way back to Victor Page to find an example. Victor for all his talent was obviously not the most stable kid in the world and that wasn't just regarding basketball. He continually made poor decisions. To think that Georgetown is somewhat unique in the type of players it has and the people advising them is not drinking the kool-aid, it's an objective fact. As I said, all these kids want to get to the NBA as soon as possible, what's different is which kids leave in the best circumstances for themselves and which kids hurt themselves by their decisions to leave early. Some programs are better at getting kids good advice and getting the kids to listen than others. Not all kids will listen, but it is an advantage to being a Hoya fan that we have kids that won't make egregious errors in judgment in regards to their pro prospects in 90% of the cases -- whether because of them or the people around them. In addition to JTIII and an excellent staff around the players, there is Big John and Carrill and the close circle of alumni like Pat and Zo and Dikembe, as well as the agent David Falk who has represented almost every Hoya since Big John. Falk doesn't want them to screw things up either, cuz he stands to make more money from smart decisions and he doesn't want to screw up his connection with the Georgetown players that he's had over the years or his relationship with the Thompsons. Put it all together and yes, we are doing better than most programs in getting our kids to make smart decisions regarding the NBA.
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