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Post by strummer8526 on Sept 14, 2008 18:50:32 GMT -5
Eh, I guess crackpot might be the only one that would work.
Also notice that I included references to ideologies on both sides. I just think close elections always bring more fringe, polarized interests to the fore and push the moderate center out of the discussion. I'm sure after this election, whoever wins, we'll hear about some obscure demographic with its random choice of important issues, and they will suddenly be the most important group in the country.
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FewFAC
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by FewFAC on Sept 15, 2008 1:45:25 GMT -5
In '04, my NJ absentee ballot never made it to me. I'm legitimately worried about getting one. Also, I agree that it would be awesome if the closeness made people focus more on issues, but I just have far less faith in that. Unfortunately, I think it just means that the crackpots, the ignorant, the racists, the radical tree-huggers, and the over-the-top single-issue voters will carry the day. I'm trying to figure out which one or more of these categories you fall in. I'm gonna guess the category isn't "liar."
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Sept 16, 2008 12:44:34 GMT -5
Another battleground? www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=19322OK, probably not. Mainly just indicative of a very tight race, I think. I don't see McCain seriously contesting here, he's got better shots in other states. EDIT: but since it's NY, you do have to wonder if there might be a Hillary factor here?? (and in the interest of "fair and balanced," Obama's New Jersey lead has a little more breathing room again, but you can go get that link for yourself ).
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Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by Boz on Sept 17, 2008 11:49:33 GMT -5
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Post by strummer8526 on Sept 17, 2008 11:57:57 GMT -5
Hahaha nice find, Boz. "I've said it once, and I'll say it again: democracy simply doesn't work."
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EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by EasyEd on Sept 17, 2008 12:31:19 GMT -5
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on Sept 17, 2008 12:50:51 GMT -5
Yeah ed, we were talking about that last night. Clinton should get the majority of the blame for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but since Bush and pubs didn't do anything about it, they will end up holding the bag.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Sept 17, 2008 13:56:56 GMT -5
I don't think the polls are going to move a whole lot before next Friday. Probably some states will continue to shift back toward Obama, but not by more than a couple of points, IMO.
Barring any unforeseen surprises, I expect the debates will be the biggest remaining factor in determining this election.
And I think that's a good thing. I'm not defending McCain's position that this would have been a more genteel election if Obama had agreed to the townhalls, I HIGHLY doubt that, but I wish those had happened nevertheless. At least we'll get three four (sorry, forgot the veeps) forums in the next 50 days though.
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Sept 17, 2008 20:16:44 GMT -5
Today may have been Obama's best polling day in weeks. CBS/NYT national has Obama 48, McCain 43.
Time CNN Battlegrounds: Florida 48/48; Indiana 51/45 McCain; NC 48/47 McCain; Ohio 49/47 Obama. Obama wins OH, and we're asleep by 11 on Election Day.
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EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by EasyEd on Sept 18, 2008 10:32:44 GMT -5
My prediction: because the party in power in the White House gets credit for a robust economy and blame for a staggering economy, by 4-5 days from now Obama will enjoy about a 7 point lead over McCain and there is nothing McCain can do about it - but he better try if he hopes to win.
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Bando
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Post by Bando on Sept 18, 2008 11:26:41 GMT -5
I just love that after all the poll volatility and the pages and pages of threads posted on this board, we are back to exactly where we were before the conventions. Gotta love politics.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Sept 18, 2008 13:46:28 GMT -5
I just love that after all the poll volatility and the pages and pages of threads posted on this board, we are back to exactly where we were before the conventions. Gotta love politics. But we've all made our points so forcefully and with such conviction on this board! How is that not changing people's minds? Well observed, Bando. Now.....what can you and I fight about?
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Bando
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Post by Bando on Sept 18, 2008 14:54:59 GMT -5
I just love that after all the poll volatility and the pages and pages of threads posted on this board, we are back to exactly where we were before the conventions. Gotta love politics. But we've all made our points so forcefully and with such conviction on this board! How is that not changing people's minds? Well observed, Bando. Now.....what can you and I fight about? GREAT TASTE!
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hifigator
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by hifigator on Sept 18, 2008 15:12:54 GMT -5
Filling less!
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Sept 18, 2008 15:13:48 GMT -5
Geez, what a frickin' typical liberal point of view.
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Bando
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Post by Bando on Sept 18, 2008 15:51:29 GMT -5
Yes, I mixed up a decade-old advertising slogan, my bad. Remembering this sort of stuff isn't that important to me, while I understand it's a major at UF.
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on Sept 18, 2008 16:29:04 GMT -5
Wah ... wah ... wah.
Typical. I wasn't making a big deal at all about it. But instead of just chuckling and moving on to the next issue, you say that you made a mistake, but that it's really my fault for noticing. Cute, but not going to fly.
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hoyatables
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Post by hoyatables on Sept 19, 2008 10:36:48 GMT -5
Wah ... wah ... wah. Typical. I wasn't making a big deal at all about it. But instead of just chuckling and moving on to the next issue, you say that you made a mistake, but that it's really my fault for noticing. Cute, but not going to fly. Actually, it does. At the end of the day, we still like Bando .
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ScreamingHoya
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Post by ScreamingHoya on Sept 19, 2008 14:39:58 GMT -5
I work for a polling organization and I would urge people not to give much credence to the state polls in battleground states. These polls are cheap to conduct and thus not incredibly reliable. Two of the best handicappers in the business are non-partisan veterans Charlie Cook (Georgetown alum!) of the Cook Political Report, and Stu Rotherberg of the Rothenberg Political Report. Cook has his current outlook on his homepage at www.cookpolitical.com
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ScreamingHoya
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Ted Valentine: Getting it wrong since 1979.
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Post by ScreamingHoya on Sept 19, 2008 14:42:31 GMT -5
Oh, and for the love of all that is holy, please don't cite Zogby and TRasmussen. They're considered to be the black sheep of the polling world- no legitimate polling group trusts their numbers.
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