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Post by PJC323 on Jul 21, 2008 14:22:54 GMT -5
sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=3481014This week, ESPN's counting down the most prestigious college basketball programs since 1984-85. They're using a numerical point system that scores as follows: • National title … 25 • Title game loss … 20 • National semifinal loss … 15 • Elite Eight loss … 10 • Best record in conference's regular season … 5 • 30+ wins in a season … 5 • Sweet 16 loss … 5 • Conference tournament title … 3 • AP first-team All-American … 3 • Losing in NCAA second round … 3 • Player in top 10 of NBA draft … 2 • 20-29 wins in a season … 2 • NCAA first-round win as a 12-16-seed … 2 • NIT title … 2 • AP second-team All-American … 2 • NCAA tournament berth … 1 • Postseason NIT berth … 1 • AP third-team All-American … 1 • NCAA first-round loss vs. 12-16-seed … -2 • Losing season … -3 • Ban from NCAA tournament … -3 It looks like 8 of the current 16 Big East teams have cracked the Top 50. They've only revealed Pitt so far, at #44. Along with us, that leaves Cincy, UConn, Louisville, St. John's (along with UMass, one of only two teams in the Top 50 with 10+ losing seasons), Cuse, and Nova. Anyone have any time to estimate how many points we'll get?
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Jul 21, 2008 14:45:24 GMT -5
84'/'85? Nice timing.. takes 25 points away from us.
Was this designed for Duke?
Ban from NCAA Tournament only counts -3? Same as a losing season?
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hoyasexy
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Post by hoyasexy on Jul 21, 2008 14:48:55 GMT -5
Although I understand why 84/85 was picked (the advent of the 64 team tournament), I think most would point to the 78/79 tournament as the beginning of the modern era of college basketball. Pretty sure if we went to that date, our ranking would be a lot higher.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Jul 21, 2008 14:51:53 GMT -5
so i did a rough conservative estimate. I have us with aproximately 221 points of this criteria.
they've released through 41 which was LSu with 93 points.
I could be off because i didn't include our NIT that we declined. nor did i count our two divisional wins in the iverson years cause i'm pretty sure Uconn had a better record. but i'm pretty sure i was correct in not including those.
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DudeSlade
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Post by DudeSlade on Jul 21, 2008 16:22:29 GMT -5
Thanks for figuring that out HoyaSinceBirth. We'll see where we end up. But considering that #41 only has 93 points, what do you guys think? Maybe the 20s? I figure the top ones will really be up there based on the time frame they used. Also where do you think we'll fall in the conference? I'd say #4 or 5 behind UConn, Louisville, and Cuse and ahead of St. Johns and Cincy. I'm not sure about Nova cuz they get the 25 points for the National Title.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Jul 21, 2008 16:53:30 GMT -5
Here's my math so someone can correct me if I'm wrong. If i had a question I listed both numbers but used the lower one in calculations.
National title loss 20pts x1=20
Semifinal loss 15 pts x1=15
Elite 8 loss 10 x3=30
Sweet 16 loss 5 x3=15
Second round loss 3 x7=21
First round win as 12-16 seed x 0=0
Ncaa berth 1 pt X 14=14
Nit birth 1 pt x 6 or 7=6
First round loss vs 12-16 seed –2 pt x0=0
Best record in conference's regular season … 5 x5 =25
30+ wins in a season … 5 x 2=10
Conference tournament title … 3x 4=12
AP first-team All-American … 3x4=12
Player in top 10 of NBA draft … 2x 7=14
20-29 wins in a season … 2x 12=24
AP second-team All-American … 2x3=6
AP third-team All-American … 1x3=3
Losing season … -3x2=-6
Ban from NCAA tournament … -3x0
I used hoyasaxa.com's history site for my info.
we've done well in top 10 draft picks, pretty decently on all americans.
it's interesting to see how with just one more win in a couple of season's we could have even more points not talking tournament wins I mean the fact that we have had 3 29 win seasons which would give us 15 more points. we've had 6 19 win season which would be an additional 12 points. and one more win 98-99 season and we'd have been at 500 and eliminated one of our 2 losing seasons for an addition of 3 points.
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Post by stafford72 on Jul 21, 2008 17:32:56 GMT -5
If you are disappointed with the selection of 84-5 for the beginning season, think how UCLA must feel.
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Post by grokamok on Jul 21, 2008 17:35:49 GMT -5
Interesting methodology.
I'd like to see an NIT championship count as 4 or 5 instead of 2 (if you look at the post-season RPI ratings of NIT champs, I think this is not unreasonable) but only an NIT final 4 count as 1 (instead of any NIT berth - especially considering the variation in the numbers of NIT berths over the subject time frame).
The All-American and NBA draft points are a bit bogus -- this is about team performance and, as we know, certain teams' recruits are basically pre-ordained as All Americans, often getting the accolade over more deserving players from lesser-known schools (we may actually have benefited from this but I think it is something of a wash).
The wins in a season (30+ and 20-29) is also a bit bogus. Too many easy wins for top programs in lower-end conferences. The points for conference regular season title is already there for these programs. It also biases the ratings towards programs that max out their schedules with pre-season tournaments (allowing more games to be played since the entire tourney counts as one against the cap) - Kansas, UNC, etc. The scale should also slide a bit more if the number of victories is to be used. I'd rather see a mix of points for victories and pre-tournament RPI performance (though not the best rating system, it is the only one likely to be accepted).
A conference tournament title, given it's importance in gaining an NCAA berth, should also be given at least as much weight as a regular season title. To avoid double-counting the resulting berth, only at-large NCAA berths should be awarded the single point.
Losing seasons should be weighted by their severity. Close to .500? -1. Close to .250? -5.
Agree that an NCAA ban has to be given much more weight. Maybe -10 for the first year and -5 for any subsequent years attached to the same violation. Probation should be -3.
I assume we'll end up somewhere between 25 and 30 with the ESPN methodology but could be a bit higher. I'd be surprised if we were any lower. My adjustments probably wouldn't change this all that much.
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Jul 21, 2008 18:06:19 GMT -5
An NIT berth and an NCAA berth are each worth the same -- 1 point?
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SirSaxa
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Post by SirSaxa on Jul 21, 2008 18:13:31 GMT -5
Here's my math so someone can correct me if I'm wrong. If i had a question I listed both numbers but used the lower one in calculations. National title loss 20pts x1=20 Semifinal loss 15 pts x1=15 Elite 8 loss 10 x3=30 Sweet 16 loss 5 x3=15 Second round loss 3 x7=21 First round win as 12-16 seed x 0=0 Ncaa berth 1 pt X 14=14 Nit birth 1 pt x 6 or 7=6 First round loss vs 12-16 seed –2 pt x0=0 Best record in conference's regular season … 5 x5 =25 30+ wins in a season … 5 x 2=10 Conference tournament title … 3x 4=12 AP first-team All-American … 3x4=12 Player in top 10 of NBA draft … 2x 7=14 20-29 wins in a season … 2x 12=24 AP second-team All-American … 2x3=6 AP third-team All-American … 1x3=3 Losing season … -3x2=-6 Ban from NCAA tournament … -3x0 I used hoyasaxa.com's history site for my info. we've done well in top 10 draft picks, pretty decently on all americans. it's interesting to see how with just one more win in a couple of season's we could have even more points not talking tournament wins I mean the fact that we have had 3 29 win seasons which would give us 15 more points. we've had 6 19 win season which would be an additional 12 points. and one more win 98-99 season and we'd have been at 500 and eliminated one of our 2 losing seasons for an addition of 3 points. Good work putting that all together. Thanks. What do folks think? Top 10? No worse than a ranking in the teens. Nice additions to the totals over the last 4 years, thanks to JT the Younger |
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Post by sleepyjackson21 on Jul 21, 2008 21:24:56 GMT -5
I think we are in the 11-15 range. Duke, UNC, Kansas, UCLA, UConn, Kentucky, Arizona, Michigan State, Florida and Syracuse are all probably ahead of us.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Jul 21, 2008 21:25:34 GMT -5
from reading some other boards I have good news and bad news
Good news maryland is about 50 pts below our score.
bad news there are teams out there like Duke who have about twice our score. so I think we can make it to the teens but that's about it.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Jul 21, 2008 23:36:05 GMT -5
We'll be around 15 -17.
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joey0403p
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Post by joey0403p on Jul 22, 2008 7:41:45 GMT -5
You can't be mad at Duke for beating us in this ranking system. In that time period how many final 4s? How many NCAA Championships? I mean I don't like Duke - but its just a fact they were a very good basketball team during the 90s. And honestly, you can't claim bias or over hype back then. Back then they were legit good. NOW they are over hyped and garbage. But grant hill years they were legit.
Coincidently because they were good in he 90s is why they get over hyped and biased refs and sh*t now....
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theexorcist
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Post by theexorcist on Jul 22, 2008 8:40:01 GMT -5
I can't believe that a ban from the NCAAs is worth -3. I'd start at -10 and go from there.
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Post by PJC323 on Jul 22, 2008 8:43:06 GMT -5
I just put together my own calculation, and I have us at 212 (ESPN lowered 20-29 win seasons from 2 points to 1 point since we started). Here is the breakdown by year:
1985 - 34
2007 - 28
1987 - 25
1989 - 23
1996 - 17
1992 - 15
2006 - 12
2008 - 12
1990 - 7
1991 - 7
1995 - 7
2001 - 7
1986 - 5
1988 - 5
1994 - 4
2003 - 3
1993 - 2
1997 - 2
1998 - 1
2000 - 1
2005 - 1
2002 - 0
1999 - -2
2004 - -3
And here it is by category:
• Elite Eight loss - 30
• Best record in conference's regular season - 25
• Losing in NCAA second round - 21
• Title game loss - 20
• NCAA tournament berth - 16
• National semifinal loss - 15
• Sweet 16 loss - 15
• Player in top 10 of NBA draft - 14
• 20-29 wins in a season - 13
• Conference tournament title - 12
• AP first-team All-American - 12
• 30-plus wins in a season - 10
• Postseason NIT berth - 6
• AP second-team All-American - 6
• AP third-team All-American - 3
• National title - 0
• NCAA first-round win as a 12-16-seed - 0
• NCAA first-round loss vs. 12-16-seed - 0
• NIT title - 0
• Ban from NCAA tournament - 0
• Losing season - -6
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on Jul 22, 2008 8:59:28 GMT -5
the point system on this is pretty suspect. the 20-29 win category should be split into 20-24 and 25-29; a mid major in a crap conference who is clearly better than the rest of the conference (ex. memphis) is going to win 20 games with no sweat, but reaching 25+ means they had to beat some legit teams out of conference.
also the NCAA ban is clearly flawed. it should be -10 for the first year, and -5 for each subsequent year of that ban. Get banned again? that's -20 first year and -10 for each additional year. A third ban? your out of contention for this list. BUT if some team has been banned so frequently it is doubtful that they have had the opportunity to amass enough points to be higher than 100, but i still think that ESPN should have some morals (i know its a lot to ask)
i also have a problem with rewarding NIT so much, even though i cant think of a reason a team shouldnt get points for it. i guess it is because the title is "Most Prestigious." i dont think it is more prestigious to win an NIT than get to the elite 8 or even sweet 16, and i dont think i am alone in this opinion. the winner in the losers' bracket is still a loser.
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JimmyHoya
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Post by JimmyHoya on Jul 22, 2008 9:45:43 GMT -5
ESPN televises the NIT. Can't imagine they'd do anything but pump it up.
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Post by Fan Of The Game on Jul 22, 2008 9:51:40 GMT -5
An NIT berth and an NCAA berth are each worth the same -- 1 point? IMO, that's the biggest flaw in this system. |
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Jul 22, 2008 11:14:48 GMT -5
sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=349174731-40 is now up princeton at 40 st. johns at 36 villanova at 31 in further news villanova has apparently left the big east for the big 12. nova's point total is 126 i hope we make it into the top 20. I think we will. Nova is the lowest ranked team to have won a national title during this time period.
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