GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 9, 2008 19:09:10 GMT -5
Didn't see a recent thread on this but after today I think it would be a surprise if we weren't a two seed.
The ones are pretty much locked:
UNC, Memphis, Tennessee, UCLA
I can't see that changing. Likewise the twos:
Duke, Kansas, Texas, Georgetown
Now I know we can come up with crazy scenarios but the teams with a chance to jump to the two line:
Xavier: 5 losses and no chance to get any more impressive wins. Indiana win keeps getting worse. Bottom line, we have 4 top 25 wins to their 1 and they have 4 losses worse than 'Cuse.
Wisconsin: Lunardi's baby but he's a moron and I just don't think the Big Ten has the juice to get to the 2 line. Two damning parts of the resume are the shocking score against Duke (it's just ridiculous to look at) and the big one is they were swept by the second place team in the (horrible Big Ten) conference. Their RPI is worse than ours and I don't think that Texas win is enough to put them over the top.
Vandy: Six losses in the SEC. That will do it.
Louisville, UConn, Stanford: Too many losses.
So Wisconsin might have a shot but I think it's an outside one. Either way, this all assumes the other 2s all take care of business. So I think we're kind of locked in and playing the BET just for the title and not for seeding.
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Post by KeysPlaceHoya on Mar 9, 2008 20:47:26 GMT -5
I agree completely. I think right now there is only an outside chance that we slip to a 3...we'd have to lose badly on Thursday and the other teams just below us would have to win their conference tournaments in impressive fashion.
I think right now we are playing for which 2 seed we get...the "worst" one which would put us on a collision course for a re-match with Carolina (this time in Charlotte). Any of the projected 1 and 2 seeds will be tough games, but I like our chances on a neutral court. That's why I'd prefer to avoid playing Carolina in Charlotte. Let Duke get that #2 seed. What a fun bloodbath that would be to watch--both schools' fans and their cheerleaders in the media would be whining constantly about how unfair it is for them to have to potentially face each in a game before the Final Four. I just love the Divine Right of the ACC.
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HoyaChris
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 9, 2008 21:05:11 GMT -5
The committee's decision rules would not let them put a 1 and a 2 from the same conference in the same bracket unless they could not avoid it.
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alleninxis
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Post by alleninxis on Mar 9, 2008 21:16:34 GMT -5
Give me UNC in the East, again.
We'll beat them, again.
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Mar 9, 2008 21:18:35 GMT -5
Last year, Georgetown won 14 of its last 15 and got a #2.
I could easily see a #3 this year after Memphis, Kansas, Duke and Carolina (with two regionals within the state), followed by UCLA, Texas (winning the Big 12), the Big 10 titleist, and Tennessee.
In short, don't expect any goodwill from the committee, and you won't be disappointed.
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vcjack
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Post by vcjack on Mar 9, 2008 21:36:18 GMT -5
Last year, Georgetown won 14 of its last 15 and got a #2. I could easily see a #3 this year after Memphis, Kansas, Duke and Carolina (with two regionals within the state), followed by UCLA, Texas (winning the Big 12), the Big 10 titleist, and Tennessee. In short, don't expect any goodwill from the committee, and you won't be disappointed. We also had 6 L's last year compared to our 4. Wisconsin is our main competition for the 2 (Louisville too if they end up winning the BET). It pains me to say it but an early exit for the Badgers in Indy would be good
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 9, 2008 22:15:24 GMT -5
Last year, Georgetown won 14 of its last 15 and got a #2. I could easily see a #3 this year after Memphis, Kansas, Duke and Carolina (with two regionals within the state), followed by UCLA, Texas (winning the Big 12), the Big 10 titleist, and Tennessee. In short, don't expect any goodwill from the committee, and you won't be disappointed. We also had 6 L's last year compared to our 4. Wisconsin is our main competition for the 2 (Louisville too if they end up winning the BET). It pains me to say it but an early exit for the Badgers in Indy would be good Wisconsin's case is weak compared to ours honestly, especially if we win our first BET game. You can just go right down the line. 1-25 record Hoyas: 4-3 Badgers: 4-2 26-50 record Hoyas: 2-1 Badgers: 0-2 51-100 record Hoyas: 4-0 Badgers: 4-0 101-200 Record Hoyas: 12-0 Badgers: 13-0 201+ Hoyas: 3-0 Wisconsin: 5-0 It's tough to argue for Wisconsin here. Lower RPI and SOS and the records speak for themselves. Their first opponent in the Big Ten tournament? Either 180 or 184 RPI. Yuck. Even winning that tournament brings them even at best.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 9, 2008 23:38:24 GMT -5
Don't forget that the Big East's number 6 team went in to the Kohl Center and beat them in December.
I think Wisconsin gets a 3 at best no matter what happens.
I'd be more concerned about Louisville winning the BET, particularly if we go out in Game 1 to a Nova or a Syracuse. Not saying this will happen, but I'm not prepared to say we're a lock on the #2 right now. Especially if any of the committee members have an ear for the national media and the "lucky" story.
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DudeSlade
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Post by DudeSlade on Mar 10, 2008 1:11:24 GMT -5
UCLA will be a 1 seed unless they choke away the Pac 10 tourney and Duke wins the ACC. No way they drop below them otherwise. Easiest thing to do is win the BET and we'll be a #2. If we make it to the finals and probably even if we make it to the semis, then I'll bet we're a #2. But we can't lose in the quarters and still expect a 2 seed, especially if Wisconsin wins their tourney.
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Locker
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Post by Locker on Mar 10, 2008 6:13:16 GMT -5
If we end up where we probably are today -- behind Carolina and Duke and ahead of Louisville -- we'll be playing in Birmingham the first weekend. It's the closest pod to D.C. after eliminating Verizon and Raleigh. www.crashingthedance.com/#distance
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Post by jerseyshorehoya on Mar 10, 2008 7:04:53 GMT -5
If Louisville wins the Big East tourney, they will get a #2 while we get a #3.
I think Georgetown will go to Tampa, not Birmingham.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Mar 10, 2008 7:07:33 GMT -5
Agreed GIGA unless, as others have suggested, we get bounced early and Louisville wins the BET. That would probably push us to a 3. I can't see us getting a 1 unless we win the BET and a few other teams get upset in their tourneys. A 2 seed works for me.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 10, 2008 8:38:08 GMT -5
Interesting on the location. I would argue that if we win the BET and Duke does not win the ACC tournament, we deserve the second Raleigh pod (with UNC), and Duke can go to D.C. That would hardly be a major sacrifice for Dukies.
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DrumsGoBang
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Post by DrumsGoBang on Mar 10, 2008 8:46:43 GMT -5
Hopefully Maryland can get a 2 seed in the NIT. HAHAHAHA
FUNIONS!
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 10, 2008 8:49:02 GMT -5
I agree with Giga, I think it is pretty much a lock that we are a 2. You cant discount our overall profile compared to what could possibly happen this week. Even Lville winning the Big East tourney is not enough to knock us out, in my opinion. If it was, then you would have to punish Duke, Texas/Kansas for not winning their tournaments(which will likely happen.)
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Post by Hoya TMF on Mar 10, 2008 9:12:02 GMT -5
i don't know if we can be a lock if right now we are the last two seed behind Tenn, Kansas/Texas and Duke. That's kind of a slim margin for error. I ahve no idea or even thoughts on what will shake down other than that we are no worse than a three seed. I think we deserve a two, but if we lose on Thursday and Louisville or Standofrd or Wisconsin (ugh) wins their respective tourney, I could see us being bumped out of the two line. We shall see. Of course winning games answers all questions. Go Hoyas!!!
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 10, 2008 9:16:37 GMT -5
The idea that we are locked on the 2 right now is wishful thinking. If we get to the BET finals, we're a lock at 2. Anything less, and I think there's a real shot that we fall to the 3. I really don't think it matters though - as a 2 seed, we may well be the lowest at that spot, and thus would draw the same bracket as the overall top seed. From the 3 spot, we could get shipped outside the East, which is what I'd like.
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Post by HoyaTejano on Mar 10, 2008 9:16:55 GMT -5
How tight is the S-curve along the 2-line? I suspect Georgetown will be playing for a spot to move up or down that part of the line. If Georgetown wins the BET then it probably won't be the 2 in the east, because the 1-East will be the top overall, right? If Georgetown were to lose in the BET then I can see us either on the edge of the two right into the top end of the 3-line.
The 1-line is not as firm as it looks. Does a Duke win in the ACC tournament and a TN loss in the SEC Tournament force the Vols off the 1-line and into the 2?
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Post by patrickneil on Mar 10, 2008 9:20:54 GMT -5
Agree on Wisconsin as main rival for the last #2. I have to note that Wisconsin also has a tough tournament ahead of them in the Big Ten. Be rooting for Purdue, who gave then their only two conference losses, in their likely March 16th final, which takes place only miles from Purdue's home turf.
Patrick
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 10, 2008 9:27:05 GMT -5
It is fine if you disagree that we are a lock at #2, but please explain why? That is the point of GIGA's thread. Who can jump us? Moreover, who can jump us that shouldnt be allowed to jump Duke, Texas or Kansas? We won the Big East, have 4 losses, and an impressive RPI profile (we are even better than Kansas in that regard.) Lville has 7 losses. Stanford lost to UCLA twice, has 6 losses and is 17 in the RPI. Xavier blew their chance by losing to St Joes. They cant redeem themselves all that much by beating Temple and UMass. And, again, as GIGA noted, you have to consider other combinations, too. Duke might lose before the final. Texas and Kansas both cant win the Big 12. I guess the only shot is if Wisconsin runs the table and wins the Big 10 championship. But, even that might not be a enough for such a weak conference.
I think last week was the key. Us beating Lville, Stanford losing to UCLA and Xavier losing to St Joes.
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