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Post by Hoya TMF on Mar 10, 2008 9:45:29 GMT -5
Stanford, Louisville, Wisconsin and maybe Xavier. If we have an early exit and any of those teams wins their tourney, they could end up as a two seed. Obviously things change year to year, but we had six losses going into selection sunday last year and were a two seed. We weren't even the lowest two seed. Especially because some think Stanford got hosed last week, I could see them jumping us if they win the Pac-10, which many believe is the best conference in America. There are a lot of variables and a lot of games to be played. It just seems a bit early to say we a re a "lock" for a two seed. That's a pretty strong statement given that the major conference tournaments haven't even started. I think most would agree that if we win the BET, we are a lock for a two seed, and might have an outside chance at a 1.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 10, 2008 10:18:54 GMT -5
Fair points, but again, I took us winning the Big East regular season and post season to get that two seed with 6 losses. Stanford and Lville cant claim that. They just have too weak of an OOC, in my opinion. The committee cares about that when you have that many losses.
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on Mar 10, 2008 10:37:09 GMT -5
Why does everyone keep having this lovefest with Duke? I have said that I thought they were overrated all year, and that game Saturday only confirmed that to a degree. Why the presumption that they are at least a 2 and maybe even the last 1 seed. I just don't see it. For what it's worth, I think it is UNC, UCLA, Memphis, Tennessee -- in that order, even though Tennessee won the head to head game with Memphis. The 2's are Georgetown, Kansas, Texas and ? I guess it's Duke by default, but I would say that Mich St or maybe Stanford would have more claim to the spot, depending on how they finish. Edit: Obviously I meant Wisconsin, not Mich St.
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Post by Hoya TMF on Mar 10, 2008 10:43:04 GMT -5
Fair points, but again, I took us winning the Big East regular season and post season to get that two seed with 6 losses. Stanford and Lville cant claim that. They just have too weak of an OOC, in my opinion. The committee cares about that when you have that many losses. Again, we control our destiny and right now have a better chacne than the others, but I wouldn't say we are a lock.
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blueandgray
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Post by blueandgray on Mar 10, 2008 10:59:23 GMT -5
If we play Louisville in the BET Finals and lose... I say we still get the #2 seed at 27-5. Louisville would remain a 7 loss team. If we lose in the first round and Luiosville takes it all...that one of the only scenarios where we may lose the #2.
That said, would love to see us shiipped out West (just like in '84) and take on the #1 Bruins. I think we match up well... our teams are virtual mirror images of one another... and I think we'd all be happy by the results of the matchup.
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 10, 2008 11:02:08 GMT -5
hypothetical - we lose to YouCon in the semis - would that push us off the 2 line if Louisville of YouCon wins the BET?
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SoCalHoya
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Post by SoCalHoya on Mar 10, 2008 11:29:23 GMT -5
Isn't Stanford out of a 2 seed now that they've lost two this past week? Granted the UCLA loss was kind of sketch...
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Post by dajuan on Mar 10, 2008 12:46:08 GMT -5
I agree with all the comments about our being "locked" into the 2 seed being very preliminary. If we lose on Thursday, I'd say there's very little chance of us getting a 2. If Louisville wins the BET, I'd say they'd jump us.
Let's not forget, most every analyst agreed on Friday that Louisville was the best team in the Big East at that moment. We won at home, but I don't think we convinced everybody. If Louisville wins the BET they will have most everyone back in their corner saying that on Selection Sunday, they're the best team in the Big East - and it will be hard to argue with them.
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Post by Hoya TMF on Mar 10, 2008 13:09:24 GMT -5
If we play Louisville in the BET Finals and lose... I say we still get the #2 seed at 27-5. Louisville would remain a 7 loss team. If we lose in the first round and Luiosville takes it all...that one of the only scenarios where we may lose the #2. And those seven Louisville losses can be discounted somewhat because of the injuries. It seems the committee cares morea bout who you've beaten recently, especially when injuries and other things are involved. I think if either Louisville or Georgetown wins the BET, that team gets a 2. Even if we both get to the final, there is just so little room on that 2 line, that someone has to get bumped off. I think teams right now are a lock for a range, more than a seed. The presumptive 1 seeds are a lock for no worse than a two seed. We are a lock for no worse than a three seed and Louisville, Wisconsin and Stanford are locks for no worse than a four seed. As someone else said, getting a two seed is important so we can avoid having to play two top eight squads to get to the final four. Quite honestly, I also would prefer to avoid being the worst two seed and likely have to play carolina in the east or beat stanford just to get to carolina. there is so much that has yet to be decided yet, though so we'll just have to see how things play out.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 10, 2008 13:11:20 GMT -5
Forget Stanford or Vanderbilt. They've got no chance after losing on Saturday. Forget Drake (not that anybody wasn't already) with their 2 losses outside the RPI Top 100. Forget UConn, with their 2-3 record against RPI 51-100. Forget Xavier, with their 5-4 record vs. RPI 51-100, the loss last week, and the fact they won't play any remaining good teams.
The top 2 seeds will be divided up among the following, taken from the RPI Top 13 with Drake, Xavier, and Vandy removed for the reasons described above. Here's the list, by current RPI rank (with overall record followed by record vs. Top 50 RPI in parentheses, followed by strength of schedule rank) 1. Tennessee (27-3, 11-3), 1 2. UNC (29-2, 9-1), 4 3. Memphis (30-1, 8-1), 19 4. Duke (26-4, 6-3), 9 5. Texas (25-5, 10-3), 5 6. UCLA (27-3, 9-2), 22 7. Georgetown (25-4, 6-4), 42 8. Kansas (27-3, 6-2), 63 11. Louisville (24-7, 9-5), 6 13. Wisconsin (26-4, 5-4), 62
Looking at that right now, we definitely deserve a 2. But lose Thursday and drop to 25-5, 6-5 (or if its Nova, pick up our first non-top 50 loss), and I wouldn't say its a slam dunk that a BET champion Louisville (27-7, 12-5, with effectively a rubber match win over us by virtue of winning the tourney) or Big Ten Champion Wisconsin (27-4, 7-4) couldn't pass us by.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Mar 10, 2008 13:28:34 GMT -5
I think the last three posts have this issue exactly right. There's no way we are locked into a 2 seed yet. There are too many things that could happen to push us down to a 3. I do agree that Stanford's loss to USC really hurt their chances, even if they win the Pac-10 tournament, but if they win out and we and Wisconsin both lose early, they could sneak in. One of the above posts said that our major competition is Wisconsin and Louisville. I agree. If Louisville wins out, they are getting a 2.
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Post by KeysPlaceHoya on Mar 10, 2008 15:31:22 GMT -5
Lunardi's updated Bracketology has the Hoyas as the 2 seed in the East.
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 10, 2008 15:33:36 GMT -5
Here's his "Insider" writeup:
GEORGETOWN Have been saying all along that a Big East team would emerge as a No. 2 seed. By defeating Louisville and claiming another regular-season title, Georgetown is now that team.
Why seeded here? No one else in the Big East has defeated all the other contenders at least once.
May change because: There will be no shortage of contenders for this spot as Championship Week unfolds.
Good Wins RPI 1-25: Connecticut, Notre Dame, @marquette, Louisville RPI 26-50: Syracuse, @west Virginia
Bad Losses RPI 101-200: none RPI 201+: none
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Post by capcenterhoya on Mar 10, 2008 15:48:15 GMT -5
Which team is more likely to fall to a 3, Duke or Georgetown?
Duke has been worse down the stretch, and we have the same amount of victories against the Top 50 and Top 25 RPI. We also won our league, while Duke finished 2nd. I guess Duke has the best win, but they also have inferior losses. For whatever reason, Duke seems to get the benefit of the doubt against us, but I'm just not sure they deserve it.
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 10, 2008 15:59:47 GMT -5
Duke gets the benefit of the doubt against everybody. Just the way of the world.
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Post by Hoya TMF on Mar 10, 2008 16:59:55 GMT -5
Which team is more likely to fall to a 3, Duke or Georgetown? Duke has been worse down the stretch, and we have the same amount of victories against the Top 50 and Top 25 RPI. We also won our league, while Duke finished 2nd. I guess Duke has the best win, but they also have inferior losses. For whatever reason, Duke seems to get the benefit of the doubt against us, but I'm just not sure they deserve it. I was thinking the same thing, but it seems that everyone in the media has annointed duke at least a two seed, which makes it harder for me to believe that they will fall off that line. also, the acc is terrible. they could lose to clemson, but i just don't think they will face similar competition as the top seeds in the BET. thus, duke is virtually assured of going to the acc title game, which i guess would make them worthy of a two seed. ugh.
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Locker
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Post by Locker on Mar 10, 2008 17:14:10 GMT -5
I think Georgetown will go to Tampa, not Birmingham. If we're seeded ahead of Louisville and behind Duke, we're going to Birmingham. Lousville will travel the extra 100+ miles to Tampa. As they should, if we're seeded ahead of them.
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Locker
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Post by Locker on Mar 10, 2008 17:17:43 GMT -5
Interesting on the location. I would argue that if we win the BET and Duke does not win the ACC tournament, we deserve the second Raleigh pod (with UNC), and Duke can go to D.C. That would hardly be a major sacrifice for Dukies. I think this is correct, but a bad result for GU. We'll face an extremely hostile crowd of Tar Heel fans in Raleigh, in light of what happened last March. Much worse than Winston-Salem last year, I would think.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 10, 2008 20:59:43 GMT -5
I now hope that we end up Birmingham or Tampa, because tickets for the first two rounds at those sites were still available as of this morning, and I bought a pair for each site. I'm assuming I can get most if not all of it back by reselling once the brackets are announced--or even a bit of a premium.
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Z
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Post by Z on Mar 11, 2008 1:04:53 GMT -5
the 2-3 seed is inconsequential in terms of who you actually play in the tourney (you are facing a 2-3 matchup in the round of 16 either way). i'd rather get a good region as the first 3 than a bad one as the last 2.
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