Bando
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
I've got some regrets!
Posts: 2,431
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 17:43:00 GMT -5
Post by Bando on Jan 3, 2008 17:43:00 GMT -5
Consider this an election night open thread. Let's see those predictions. Just for s and giggles, I'll start:
Dems
1. Edwards 2. Obama 3. Clinton 4. Dodd 5. Richardson, etc....
GOP
1. Huckabee 2. Romney 3. McCain 4. Paul 5. Thompson 6. Giuliani
Neither of these lists are my preferences, just a hunch on how it will all shake up.
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 17:59:38 GMT -5
Post by AustinHoya03 on Jan 3, 2008 17:59:38 GMT -5
D's: 1. Obama 2. Clinton 3. Edwards 4. Doesn't Matter
R's: 1. Huckabee 2. Romney 3. Thompson 4. McCain 5. Paul 6. Giuliani
I expect Obama to win by a comfortable margin. I expect a tight finish between the two Governors.
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 19:04:31 GMT -5
Post by strummer8526 on Jan 3, 2008 19:04:31 GMT -5
D's: 1. Edwards 2. Obama 3. Clinton 4. Richardson 5. And so on...
R's: 1. Huckabee 2. Romney 3. McCain 4. Giuliani 5. Paul 6. And so on... (hopefully Thompson in a distant, dead last, because I don't even think he cares to be there.)
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 19:07:01 GMT -5
Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jan 3, 2008 19:07:01 GMT -5
D's:
1. Obama (by more than 5) 2. Edwards 3. Clinton 4. Biden (but doesn't matter)
R's: 1. Huckabee (by 3) 2. Romney 3. McCain 4. Paul 5. Thompson 6. Giuliani (maybe)
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EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,272
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 19:15:48 GMT -5
Post by EasyEd on Jan 3, 2008 19:15:48 GMT -5
Dems 1. Clinton 2. Obama 3. Edwards 4. Doesn't matter, way back
Repubs 1. Huckabee 2. Romney 3. McCain 4. Thompson 5. Paul 6. The rest
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 19:33:42 GMT -5
Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Jan 3, 2008 19:33:42 GMT -5
'Crats 1a. Obama 1b. Edwards (I think these two will be close) 3. Clinton 4. Biden 5. Dodd 6. Richardson
'Licans 1. Huckabee 2. Romney 3. McCain 4. Giuliani 5. Paul 6. Thompson
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 19:38:30 GMT -5
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 3, 2008 19:38:30 GMT -5
Dems Obama Edwards (must finish in at least second to get to February 5) Clinton (hoping for a stunning defeat here) Richardson who cares Republicans Huckabee (Huckamania runs wild) Romney (predicting him to fade, with McCain taking NH next week) McCain Thompson (will be close with McCain) who cares - Giuliani will reevaluate strategy Live Results Here: Dems: www.iowacaucusresults.com/Repubs: www.iowagop.net/
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 19:42:41 GMT -5
Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jan 3, 2008 19:42:41 GMT -5
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 20:08:15 GMT -5
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 3, 2008 20:08:15 GMT -5
The first precinct has reported - 3 votes for Edwards, and 1 each for Obama, HRC, and Richardson.
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 20:17:47 GMT -5
Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jan 3, 2008 20:17:47 GMT -5
13 precincts reporting - Edwards: 39.24%, HRC: 32.34%, Obama: 24.55%, Richardson: 1.55% of Representative Delegates.
Early and volatile numbers, obviously. If they hold it will show that the entrance polling showing Clinton/Obama as the two main vote recipients, was inaccurate.
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 20:29:43 GMT -5
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 3, 2008 20:29:43 GMT -5
13 precincts reporting - Edwards: 39.24%, HRC: 32.34%, Obama: 24.55%, Richardson: 1.55% of Representative Delegates. Early and volatile numbers, obviously. If they hold it will show that the entrance polling showing Clinton/Obama as the two main vote recipients, was inaccurate. The entrance poll shows that roughly 60% women are turning out. The recent Des Moines Register poll put that number at 58%, so perhaps they were in the ballpark. The entrance poll seems to be pro-HRC, but that perhaps is too hasty given the Register poll. We're now at 5% of precincts reporting, but the higher voter volume caucuses will report later due to the fact they need to account for more people at each site.
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 20:39:54 GMT -5
Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jan 3, 2008 20:39:54 GMT -5
However, with high turn-out, voters identified with change vs. experience 2-to-1 in entrance polls and change beating electability by a 5-to-1 margin. So that would seem to favor Obama. We'll see. High turnout favors both candidates and high turn-out means a potentially longer caucusing process, so it could be a late night.
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The Stig
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,844
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 20:46:16 GMT -5
Post by The Stig on Jan 3, 2008 20:46:16 GMT -5
Very early numbers show Fred Thompson putting in a strong showing with the GOP.
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Bando
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
I've got some regrets!
Posts: 2,431
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 20:51:52 GMT -5
Post by Bando on Jan 3, 2008 20:51:52 GMT -5
Oh, man. With 486 of 1781 precincts reporting:
Edwards 32.53 Obama 32.41 Clinton 32.15
That's crazy tight.
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 20:54:09 GMT -5
Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jan 3, 2008 20:54:09 GMT -5
Very early numbers show Fred Thompson putting in a strong showing with the GOP. And Huckabee potentially running away with it. 30% of State Delegate Equivalents reporting for the Dems with the results: Edwards: 32.38% Obama: 32.70% HRC: 32.02% Verrrrry close. ON EDIT: And obviously, as Bando and I's posts indicate - verrrry volatile.
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 20:59:48 GMT -5
Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jan 3, 2008 20:59:48 GMT -5
MSNBC and Drudge call it for Huckabee.
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The Stig
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,844
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 21:03:24 GMT -5
Post by The Stig on Jan 3, 2008 21:03:24 GMT -5
Very early numbers show Fred Thompson putting in a strong showing with the GOP. And Huckabee potentially running away with it. As a liberal, Huckabee winning the nomination would be a dream come true. Not a household name, no strong track record, politically distant from the center, and a good bet to make some major blunders on the campaign trail. He might be able to beat a John Kerry-like candidate, but for the first time since Bill's heyday the Democrats might actually have somebody they can get excited about this election. Speaking of the Dems, this caucus looks pretty inconclusive. None of the "Big 3" really needed to win in Iowa, they just needed to not lose big. As long as they all finish within a few percentage points of each other nobody is going to get a leg up.
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Bando
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
I've got some regrets!
Posts: 2,431
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 21:09:16 GMT -5
Post by Bando on Jan 3, 2008 21:09:16 GMT -5
MSNBC and Drudge call it for Huckabee. In case anyone's curious, the reason the Republicans usually have full results before the Dems is because the latter engages in a second-choice round. Basically, a candidate has to meet a certain level of precinct support to stay "viable". If they're not viable, those people can throw their support to someone else. The GOPpers don't do this, so they're usually done earlier. This is no way to pick a candidate.
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 21:11:52 GMT -5
Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jan 3, 2008 21:11:52 GMT -5
Agreed its a weird way to merge first-past-the-post and list voting. But it will never change.
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Bando
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
I've got some regrets!
Posts: 2,431
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 21:13:24 GMT -5
Post by Bando on Jan 3, 2008 21:13:24 GMT -5
Well, it's also guaranteed low turnout every time. Because the caucus is at a set time, anyone who doesn't work a straight 9-5 shift doesn't get to vote.
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