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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 21:20:52 GMT -5
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 3, 2008 21:20:52 GMT -5
Less than 600 precincts remain, and Obama has a 3% lead in terms of delegate equivalents. Margin between Edwards and HRC is less than a quarter of one percent, but not insignificant. Seems like only 3 Dems are in play in Iowa.
There's apparently talk that Edwards will drop out if he finishes in 3rd. Still more votes to count...
On Edit: MSNBC has called IA for Obama, with Chris Matthews leading the chorus. He has said before that this win is huge - of JFK proportions. That remains to be seen, but a huge surge of support. The results are still very important to HRC and Edwards.
We may not hear speeches for a little while on the Dem side.
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 21:23:16 GMT -5
Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jan 3, 2008 21:23:16 GMT -5
MSNBC projects Obama wins Iowa.
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 21:24:27 GMT -5
Post by AustinHoya03 on Jan 3, 2008 21:24:27 GMT -5
HuckaBOOM! (That's not an endorsement. The man scares me. Of course, pretty much all the candidates scare me.)
Bando, as long as we're discussing set times for caucuses, how about the day of the week? Almost every other democracy holds elections on the weekend.
If you didn't do it tonight, I highly recommend watching the Democratic caucus live on C-SPAN at some point. Although the caucus system is widely derided, it does involve quite a bit of interaction between human beings, as opposed to punching one's vote into a computer. Caucusing has its flaws, but it seems to be a lot more fun.
As long as we're on election topics, anyone think Bloomberg will actually run as a 3rd party candidate, and if he does what are his chances?
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 21:30:01 GMT -5
Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Jan 3, 2008 21:30:01 GMT -5
I think that Bloomberg's candidacy makes sense if Huckabee wins the nomination on a populist/evangelical platform.
You don't get the time off work, unless you are part of a union that lets you go vote with instructions to vote for a certain candidate.
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The Stig
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,844
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 21:44:21 GMT -5
Post by The Stig on Jan 3, 2008 21:44:21 GMT -5
A Bloomberg candidacy would make this a wild election. When was the last time there was legit 3rd candidate in between the two major candidates?
Obama's win is very helpful for him, especially since Iowa shouldn't be his best state. But his margin of victory wasn't big enough for him to do what Kerry did and basically win the nomination in Iowa. Hillary's still very much in it. I can't see Edwards putting in this strong of a performance in every state.
As far as the system is concerned, the whole primary system is horribly messed up. When I was in New Zealand I explained it to some Kiwis and they were simply aghast at how undemocratic it is. They should have every state do their primary on the same day, and of course it (and every other election) should be on weekend. If they had that nationwide primary sometime in late spring it would could also help shorten the campaign, and thus reduce voter fatigue, which I think is a huge drain on turnout.
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Bando
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
I've got some regrets!
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 22:51:29 GMT -5
Post by Bando on Jan 3, 2008 22:51:29 GMT -5
Ouch. Dodd is currently lower than "Uncommitted".
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theexorcist
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,506
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 23:01:40 GMT -5
Post by theexorcist on Jan 3, 2008 23:01:40 GMT -5
HuckaBOOM! (That's not an endorsement. The man scares me. Of course, pretty much all the candidates scare me.) Bando, as long as we're discussing set times for caucuses, how about the day of the week? Almost every other democracy holds elections on the weekend. If you didn't do it tonight, I highly recommend watching the Democratic caucus live on C-SPAN at some point. Although the caucus system is widely derided, it does involve quite a bit of interaction between human beings, as opposed to punching one's vote into a computer. Caucusing has its flaws, but it seems to be a lot more fun. As long as we're on election topics, anyone think Bloomberg will actually run as a 3rd party candidate, and if he does what are his chances? I hate caucusing. Hate it with a passion. One of the beauties of democracy is the ability to cast your vote anonymously. When ABC showed the explanation of caucusing (with what looked to be an Electro-matic football reject), the examples of people hectoring (ABC used the term "haranguing") really drives me cold. The beauty of democracy is that the vote is anonymous. Caucusing is not democratic. What if your union wants you to vote for Edwards, and you prefer Obama? Remember that, if you have a national primary, every state that's not New York, California, Texas or Florida gets ignored. There are pluses and minuses (then again, if we did away with the Iowa caucuses, we might not have an ethanol policy based on corn, which might be worth it).
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 23:01:43 GMT -5
Post by jerseyhoya34 on Jan 3, 2008 23:01:43 GMT -5
Ouch. Dodd is currently lower than "Uncommitted". He has withdrawn.
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The Stig
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,844
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Iowa!!!
Jan 3, 2008 23:49:53 GMT -5
Post by The Stig on Jan 3, 2008 23:49:53 GMT -5
Remember that, if you have a national primary, every state that's not New York, California, Texas or Florida gets ignored. There are pluses and minuses (then again, if we did away with the Iowa caucuses, we might not have an ethanol policy based on corn, which might be worth it). Even though I'm a Midwesterner who loathes LA and NYC, I'd rather have New York and California deciding elections than Iowa and New Hampshire.
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vcjack
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,875
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Post by vcjack on Jan 4, 2008 0:18:48 GMT -5
Biden out as well
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Post by strummer8526 on Jan 4, 2008 0:47:07 GMT -5
I liked Obama's speech, honestly. I thought it was the best of the 4 I saw.
But "This was the moment that the national came together"?? Really? THIS was the moment the country came together? When a few hundred thousand white Democrat farmers in one state decided that 38% of them like you? THAT'S coming together?
I guess I always hoped national unity looked more...national. And unified.
Still a great speech. He certainly looked much more presidential than I've seen him before. And he did it in a fairly colorless state. Hopefully, he can play well, even in the states where a half Kenyan probably still scares the older voters.
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theexorcist
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Post by theexorcist on Jan 4, 2008 8:08:35 GMT -5
Oh, and if you're in college right now, exult in it. My time there, our election featured Clinton going up against Bob Dole.
There is nothing to destroy the joy and vigor of youth than having your candidate be someone that fires up no one.
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bubbrubbhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
We are the intuitive minds that plot the course. Woo-WOOO!
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Post by bubbrubbhoya on Jan 4, 2008 9:25:35 GMT -5
I'm pretty big on giving smaller states a voice, but Iowa proved last night that they have no business playing a disproportionately large role in national elections.
First of all, caucusing is dumb. Beyond the fact that it shows little more than which candidates can organize their people better, it also really opens up the door for intimidation and uneasiness in voting. From the shots MSNBC had, caucusing looked more like a meeting of the village elders; could you imagine being someone's kid and lining up on the opposite side of the room from your parent? Not gonna happen. In addition, this kind of system would never be able to work in any area that didn't have an extremely homogeneous population.
Secondly, Iowans are apparently bat-poo crazy. I love Chuck Norris as much as the next guy; heck, I even dressed up as him for Halloween, but he was Mike Huckabee's most effective mouthpiece. Couple that with the fact that he won based on religion (don't tell me he didn't...his coy exploitations of the "Mormon issue" shouldn't fool anyone), and it's easy to see that Iowa blows fringe issues out of proportion.
In the end, this caucus probably won't mean much, as New Hampshire should balance out the evange-a-caucuses, and when Iowa turns out to be insignificant, I hope the cable news networks pay attention, because I don't think I can bear another cycle when Iowa is given this much face time.
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Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Iowa!!!
Jan 4, 2008 10:27:09 GMT -5
Post by Boz on Jan 4, 2008 10:27:09 GMT -5
I would have paid cash money to see "Uncommitted" win the Iowa caucuses once again.
Because, let's face it, not to demean the victories of Obama or Huckabee, that's really where the races are at right now...on both sides.
Sadly, I think those days are gone forever.
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EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,272
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Iowa!!!
Jan 4, 2008 10:43:44 GMT -5
Post by EasyEd on Jan 4, 2008 10:43:44 GMT -5
Why am I not surprised that people bash the caucus system because it did not give the result they wanted? Face it, Obama and Huckabee each won handily, according to the rules in place. Different rules will be in place in New Hampshire so we'll see what happens.
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bubbrubbhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
We are the intuitive minds that plot the course. Woo-WOOO!
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Iowa!!!
Jan 4, 2008 10:44:47 GMT -5
Post by bubbrubbhoya on Jan 4, 2008 10:44:47 GMT -5
Face it, Obama and Huckabee each won handily, according to the rules in place. Different rules will be in place in New Hampshire so we'll see what happens. Um, duh.
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SDHoya
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Iowa!!!
Jan 4, 2008 10:44:53 GMT -5
Post by SDHoya on Jan 4, 2008 10:44:53 GMT -5
A Bloomberg candidacy would make this a wild election. When was the last time there was legit 3rd candidate in between the two major candidates? Strom Thurmond!
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theexorcist
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,506
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Iowa!!!
Jan 4, 2008 10:50:14 GMT -5
Post by theexorcist on Jan 4, 2008 10:50:14 GMT -5
A Bloomberg candidacy would make this a wild election. When was the last time there was legit 3rd candidate in between the two major candidates? Strom Thurmond! Perot, 1992. And I don't like the "sour grapes" allegation. I favor Giuliani, who didn't participate. And I continue to maintain that a system that allows quotes like "'Get outta here. I'm gonna lock the door on you when you get home.'" ( www.slate.com/id/2181271/ ) is horribly undemocratic.
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Filo
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,910
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Iowa!!!
Jan 4, 2008 10:53:46 GMT -5
Post by Filo on Jan 4, 2008 10:53:46 GMT -5
Couple of thoughts: Edwards has to be bummed - even though he may have finished just ahead of Clinton, he put in so much time in Iowa. Bloomberg running as an independent would be such a breath of fresh air. If he does run, I hope Huckabee gets the Republican nod, since that would bring a ton of moderate Republican votes for Bloomberg. Bipartisan Group Eyes Independent Bid; First, Main Candidates Urged To Plan 'Unity' Government tinyurl.com/3aly6q
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bubbrubbhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
We are the intuitive minds that plot the course. Woo-WOOO!
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Iowa!!!
Jan 4, 2008 11:11:15 GMT -5
Post by bubbrubbhoya on Jan 4, 2008 11:11:15 GMT -5
Perot, 1992. And I don't like the "sour grapes" allegation. I favor Giuliani, who didn't participate. And I continue to maintain that a system that allows quotes like "'Get outta here. I'm gonna lock the door on you when you get home.'" ( www.slate.com/id/2181271/ ) is horribly undemocratic. That's a good article, and it gets the point across beautifully. It's not sour grapes, ed, it's just a terrible system.
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