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Post by trillesthoya on Oct 23, 2024 9:44:08 GMT -5
The Hoyas were actually picked 8th last year. This year, I'm happy to not be 10th. Of course, I think we can challenge for 7th/8th, but that's because I'm deep in the throes of preseason Hoya delusion Reality is the back end of the conference can land any way. Seton Hall, Butler and Georgetown can end up in any order. DePaul in there too - I don’t like their roster all that much on paper but they have a good coach and a decent amount of D1 experience which is a premium these days. If Providence can’t get a fully health Hopkins back they also end up in the same tier as those schools. |
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Oct 23, 2024 10:51:30 GMT -5
I hope the staff sticks with this plan...
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Oct 23, 2024 11:28:30 GMT -5
I hope the staff sticks with this plan... That's why April 22, 2025 is such an important point for this program: it's the end of the spring transfer portal. If Cooley is replacing Peavy and maybe one or two other transfers, regardless of record, the plan is taking hold. If six, seven, eight players all get up and leave, the players didn't buy in to the plan. Georgetown has lost 25 transfers since 2019. Continuity needs to be a priority, or things will not change. |
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Oct 23, 2024 11:49:42 GMT -5
I hope the staff sticks with this plan... That's why April 22, 2025 is such an important point for this program: it's the end of the spring transfer portal. If Cooley is replacing Peavy and maybe one or two other transfers, regardless of record, the plan is taking hold. If six, seven, eight players all get up and leave, the players didn't buy in to the plan. Georgetown has lost 25 transfers since 2019. Continuity needs to be a priority, or things will not change. 100%.... especially in an environment where "Get old and stay old" wins. It is a massive bet....and one that can hit. Given the damage to the brand and our inability to recruit high $$$. NIL transfers, perhaps this is the only way to run the gauntlet. |
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Oct 23, 2024 12:04:09 GMT -5
That's why April 22, 2025 is such an important point for this program: it's the end of the spring transfer portal. If Cooley is replacing Peavy and maybe one or two other transfers, regardless of record, the plan is taking hold. If six, seven, eight players all get up and leave, the players didn't buy in to the plan. Georgetown has lost 25 transfers since 2019. Continuity needs to be a priority, or things will not change. 100%.... especially in an environment where "Get old and stay old" wins. It is a massive bet....and one that can hit. Given the damage to the brand and our inability to recruit high $$$. NIL transfers, perhaps this is the only way to run the gauntlet. What I don't really get is the complete pessimism around it. I think it is rather silly to quote historical precedence here for a variety of reasons. But the Ewing years don't mean anything. It was very clear that a number of the issues were on him, and a number of issues to do with the players he recruited. And yes, I am sure someone will tag on the number that left after last year ... but again, even before we consider salary, there's really only one player the staff would have likely wanted to retain that they didn't (and clearly not at the price tag). Players seem to like Cooley, and they seem to like each other. The reality is that any pessimism for me right now comes largely down to NIL allocation and overall dollars. If we can compete there, I expect some transfers but I don't see any reason for a mass exodus with this group. If we can't, then yeah, the entire program is screwed. But while we cannot compete with the big boys, I have yet to see evidence that we're going to get raided like Seton Hall. We're just going to have to make some choices. I just don't really get letting it be this cloud of pessimism where the default seems to be we're going to lose 8 guys. |
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Oct 23, 2024 12:19:30 GMT -5
The Hoyas were actually picked 8th last year. This year, I'm happy to not be 10th. Of course, I think we can challenge for 7th/8th, but that's because I'm deep in the throes of preseason Hoya delusion This year’s team is as talented as any in the Big East. It just happens to be way too inexperienced. |
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Oct 23, 2024 12:22:47 GMT -5
100%.... especially in an environment where "Get old and stay old" wins. It is a massive bet....and one that can hit. Given the damage to the brand and our inability to recruit high $$$. NIL transfers, perhaps this is the only way to run the gauntlet. What I don't really get is the complete pessimism around it. I think it is rather silly to quote historical precedence here for a variety of reasons. But the Ewing years don't mean anything. It was very clear that a number of the issues were on him, and a number of issues to do with the players he recruited. And yes, I am sure someone will tag on the number that left after last year ... but again, even before we consider salary, there's really only one player the staff would have likely wanted to retain that they didn't (and clearly not at the price tag). Players seem to like Cooley, and they seem to like each other. The reality is that any pessimism for me right now comes largely down to NIL allocation and overall dollars. If we can compete there, I expect some transfers but I don't see any reason for a mass exodus with this group. If we can't, then yeah, the entire program is screwed. But while we cannot compete with the big boys, I have yet to see evidence that we're going to get raided like Seton Hall. We're just going to have to make some choices. I just don't really get letting it be this cloud of pessimism where the default seems to be we're going to lose 8 guys. It would be advantageous to get NBA quality guys who help out with the salary by going pro before they graduate and opening up NIL space for new recruits. |
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Oct 23, 2024 12:58:37 GMT -5
The reality is that any pessimism for me right now comes largely down to NIL allocation and overall dollars. If we can compete there, I expect some transfers but I don't see any reason for a mass exodus with this group. If we can't, then yeah, the entire program is screwed. But while we cannot compete with the big boys, I have yet to see evidence that we're going to get raided like Seton Hall. We're just going to have to make some choices. I just don't really get letting it be this cloud of pessimism where the default seems to be we're going to lose 8 guys. No one is saying nor predicting, eight players will transfer. Putting aside academic casualties, many transfers fall into three categories: 1) short-term mercenaries that probably should have not been recruited in the first place, 2) players who would rather live closer to home and probably wasn't a good fit at the start, or 3) players that lose hope and feel they must transfer to keep the dream alive--they don't see the opportunity that a degree from Georgetown University can provide them as a bench player versus a new start elsewhere. Rare is the basketball player who realizes that no coach can kick him out of school, and at most take away an athletic scholarship (of which he is still eligible for institutional aid). A senior year at Georgetown, free from a 30+ hour time commitment in the gym, is a rare opportunity, and that degree can take him places that a 30-game residency at Samford or Cal-State Northridge or UTSA never will. |
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Oct 23, 2024 13:24:32 GMT -5
The reality is that any pessimism for me right now comes largely down to NIL allocation and overall dollars. If we can compete there, I expect some transfers but I don't see any reason for a mass exodus with this group. If we can't, then yeah, the entire program is screwed. But while we cannot compete with the big boys, I have yet to see evidence that we're going to get raided like Seton Hall. We're just going to have to make some choices. I just don't really get letting it be this cloud of pessimism where the default seems to be we're going to lose 8 guys. No one is saying nor predicting, eight players will transfer. Putting aside academic casualties, many transfers fall into three categories: 1) short-term mercenaries that probably should have not been recruited in the first place, 2) players who would rather live closer to home and probably wasn't a good fit at the start, or 3) players that lose hope and feel they must transfer to keep the dream alive--they don't see the opportunity that a degree from Georgetown University can provide them as a bench player versus a new start elsewhere. Rare is the basketball player who realizes that no coach can kick him out of school, and at most take away an athletic scholarship (of which he is still eligible for institutional aid). A senior year at Georgetown, free from a 30+ hour time commitment in the gym, is a rare opportunity, and that degree can take him places that a 30-game residency at Samford or Cal-State Northridge or UTSA never will. The last sentence may be wise for some players, but it is also completely out of touch with the way 99% of these players think about college basketball these days. Most players would prefer to get a little money and leave to play at Samford or Cal-State Northridge than ride the pine at Georgetown and not play (or even worse, being at the university but not on the roster at all). As sad as it is for me to say this, I think the value of a Georgetown degree (which is high academically and professionally) is almost irrelevant when it comes to basketball at this point. I really think the key is hope. While it happens, it is more rare for a team that is having success and that is poised for even more success the following year to lose 7-8 players to transfer, than teams like the ones we have featured over the last several years. There is also a lot of statistical noise here too in the sense that you're dealing with a small number of individuals on each team, and individual decisions can make things look way worse than they are. For example, in sequential years, Duke held onto all their players who didn't leave for the NBA or graduate (great retention!), and the following year they lost a huge number of players from their roster. To me, that says very little about the way Scheyer coaches given that it's the same person in two consecutive years with very different results. It's the same thing with Marquette. Again, they've been good under Smart and have kept that hope alive of continuing success, and they have had few transfers. My guess is that when Marquette eventually has a down year, that may change. If we go 2-18 or worse again, I would absolutely expect a lot of transfers. If we go 7-13, show improvement, have some good young players playing big roles, and there are good expectations for 2015, I would not expect many transfers. And even better if we do better than 7-13. |
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Oct 23, 2024 13:48:35 GMT -5
The reality is that any pessimism for me right now comes largely down to NIL allocation and overall dollars. If we can compete there, I expect some transfers but I don't see any reason for a mass exodus with this group. If we can't, then yeah, the entire program is screwed. But while we cannot compete with the big boys, I have yet to see evidence that we're going to get raided like Seton Hall. We're just going to have to make some choices. I just don't really get letting it be this cloud of pessimism where the default seems to be we're going to lose 8 guys. No one is saying nor predicting, eight players will transfer. Putting aside academic casualties, many transfers fall into three categories: 1) short-term mercenaries that probably should have not been recruited in the first place, 2) players who would rather live closer to home and probably wasn't a good fit at the start, or 3) players that lose hope and feel they must transfer to keep the dream alive--they don't see the opportunity that a degree from Georgetown University can provide them as a bench player versus a new start elsewhere. Rare is the basketball player who realizes that no coach can kick him out of school, and at most take away an athletic scholarship (of which he is still eligible for institutional aid). A senior year at Georgetown, free from a 30+ hour time commitment in the gym, is a rare opportunity, and that degree can take him places that a 30-game residency at Samford or Cal-State Northridge or UTSA never will. What about the staff didn't want them anymore category DFW? This group is the largest of all inmho especially in the Ewing era. Posts like this & 2003's below hoyasaxa2003 put way too much emphasis on the players and not enough on the staffs involved with these players. |
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Oct 23, 2024 13:58:05 GMT -5
No one is saying nor predicting, eight players will transfer. But it's not a 50/50 likelihood, either. I think it is easier to think of these guys as professionals at this point. Yes, a few will value the academic side, but that really won't be regular consideration. So there will be several different regular transfer types: 1. People looking for more pay, either a strong player that a richer school (over)pays, or a role player who can get more (or thinks they can get more) elsewhere. 2. A player on the outside of the rotation who doesn't see a path to PT. 3. The typical other old-school transfer reasons: academics, homesickness, discipline issues, conflicts with the coach, etc. If we are Seton Hall, we're going to lose a ton of guys every year, but the Kadary Richardsons will chase the money, and I cannot fault the choice. Hopefully, we really only lose the expensive role players and we don't see someone like a broken out Mack or Sorber stolen away. But if we cannot fundraise to keep #1 at a minimum, we might as well pack it up. This particular group will have some of #2 for certain -- we have a ton of young guys and if say, one of the sophomore transfers finds themselves behind a freshman or two, I would suspect they would leave. We have unbalanced classes and they will natural balance out. The key, for me, is limiting #3. Create a good culture, be fair, make kids want to stay. If you can't compete money-wise, or if they simply want to play, you have to make the right choice for the program and they have to make the right choice for them. That's going to be reality. You can't avoid all the going pros (though Peak and Derrickson are probably staying in an NIL world), but man, the player conflicts, the discipline issues, the clear conflicts with Ewing. That became a disaster point. It wasn't great before, either, but absolutely zeroing out on the Akinjo / McClung / LeBlanc group was a disaster that can't be repeated. And yeah, you can never know until they are on campus, and really, until there is adversity. But it's clear Cooley is much more in tune with the players than Ewing, and most of the recruits and even transfers seem to be coachable players who are saying all the right things. Where Akinjo's uncle was talking before he got on campus, Williams' dad is talking UP his teammates. Mulready and Burks talk defense first. Mack seems like a great kid. And so on. The only likely way this breaks apart at that kind of disaster level to me is likely if we really don't have the NIL to keep a core. And I don't think we are Arkansas with Jerry Jones, but I don't think we are Seton Hall, either. |
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Oct 23, 2024 14:25:40 GMT -5
No one is saying nor predicting, eight players will transfer. The only likely way this breaks apart at that kind of disaster level to me is likely if we really don't have the NIL to keep a core. And I don't think we are Arkansas with Jerry Jones, but I don't think we are Seton Hall, either. I imagine the NIL situation is dynamic. If it produces some success, it could increase. If there is no ROI, it could significantly diminish. |
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jpj
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Post by jpj on Oct 23, 2024 14:42:01 GMT -5
The NIL is a zero-sum game. If every team in the BIG East has a $3M budget all you have done is made sure that players on each team will get $3M. Teams that use their NIL fuds strategically and efficiently may get a one season advantage or disadvantage in their NIL funding. For instance, suppose Georgetown pays a transfer $200k to come and he averages less than 4 points per game, or with that same $200k they get a transfer who has a breakout year and averages 20 points per game.
At the end of the season the first player is gone or takes a pay cut (if offered) and the second player gets a huge raise - either from the current team or he leaves and joins a new team that will pay him much more. Players have shifted the financial risk to the teams.
Without enforceable contracts, players are effectively free agents. The negative part is that all of the transferring does not bode well for graduating from college with a degree, but that is not the primary concern for athletes who can leave college after earning $1M over 4 years.
There is no guarantee that spending large amounts of NIL will produce a winner, but you will likely lose without NIL.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Oct 23, 2024 15:18:58 GMT -5
[ are. For example, in sequential years, Duke held onto all their players who didn't leave for the NBA or graduate (great retention!), and the following year they lost a huge number of players from their roster. To me, that says very little about the way Scheyer coaches given that it's the same person in two consecutive years with very different results. Is this true? I cannot check right now. |
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bills
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Post by bills on Oct 23, 2024 15:37:04 GMT -5
No one is saying nor predicting, eight players will transfer. But it's not a 50/50 likelihood, either. I think it is easier to think of these guys as professionals at this point. Yes, a few will value the academic side, but that really won't be regular consideration. So there will be several different regular transfer types: 1. People looking for more pay, either a strong player that a richer school (over)pays, or a role player who can get more (or thinks they can get more) elsewhere. 2. A player on the outside of the rotation who doesn't see a path to PT. 3. The typical other old-school transfer reasons: academics, homesickness, discipline issues, conflicts with the coach, etc. If we are Seton Hall, we're going to lose a ton of guys every year, but the Kadary Richardsons will chase the money, and I cannot fault the choice. Hopefully, we really only lose the expensive role players and we don't see someone like a broken out Mack or Sorber stolen away. But if we cannot fundraise to keep #1 at a minimum, we might as well pack it up. This particular group will have some of #2 for certain -- we have a ton of young guys and if say, one of the sophomore transfers finds themselves behind a freshman or two, I would suspect they would leave. We have unbalanced classes and they will natural balance out. The key, for me, is limiting #3. Create a good culture, be fair, make kids want to stay. If you can't compete money-wise, or if they simply want to play, you have to make the right choice for the program and they have to make the right choice for them. That's going to be reality. You can't avoid all the going pros (though Peak and Derrickson are probably staying in an NIL world), but man, the player conflicts, the discipline issues, the clear conflicts with Ewing. That became a disaster point. It wasn't great before, either, but absolutely zeroing out on the Akinjo / McClung / LeBlanc group was a disaster that can't be repeated. And yeah, you can never know until they are on campus, and really, until there is adversity. But it's clear Cooley is much more in tune with the players than Ewing, and most of the recruits and even transfers seem to be coachable players who are saying all the right things. Where Akinjo's uncle was talking before he got on campus, Williams' dad is talking UP his teammates. Mulready and Burks talk defense first. Mack seems like a great kid. And so on. The only likely way this breaks apart at that kind of disaster level to me is likely if we really don't have the NIL to keep a core. And I don't think we are Arkansas with Jerry Jones, but I don't think we are Seton Hall, either. We have 12 scholarship players on the roster and one red shirt. Absent something like a significant long term injury at least two of the scholarship players, and maybe three, will see very little playing time. Only one starter, Peavy, is sure to leave. Having 2-3 players leave because they think they can get more playing time somewhere else would not be a surprise, and not any kind of failure. Loosing any of the eight players who get the most playing time and can return would be a loss. Depending on who they are and how many leave will define how big a loss. Cooley is doing the right thing in making the culture that makes them want to stay a priority. It will not be easy, but I like his calling it out as a top priority. |
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Oct 23, 2024 16:05:02 GMT -5
I was thinking about Sorber losing the Preseason Freshman of the Year to Liam McNeely. (First of all, that award means nothing. It is marketing to generate interest for people to watch games, but this is not the point). I got kind of happy that Liam will have Peavy to deal with when we play. Then, I thought of Alex Karaban. He will have Burks to deal with.
Will we win? Probably not...but we at least have some answers on paper for our opponent's big weapons.
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calhoya
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Post by calhoya on Oct 23, 2024 16:23:00 GMT -5
No one is saying nor predicting, eight players will transfer. But it's not a 50/50 likelihood, either. I think it is easier to think of these guys as professionals at this point. Yes, a few will value the academic side, but that really won't be regular consideration. So there will be several different regular transfer types: 1. People looking for more pay, either a strong player that a richer school (over)pays, or a role player who can get more (or thinks they can get more) elsewhere. 2. A player on the outside of the rotation who doesn't see a path to PT. 3. The typical other old-school transfer reasons: academics, homesickness, discipline issues, conflicts with the coach, etc. If we are Seton Hall, we're going to lose a ton of guys every year, but the Kadary Richardsons will chase the money, and I cannot fault the choice. Hopefully, we really only lose the expensive role players and we don't see someone like a broken out Mack or Sorber stolen away. But if we cannot fundraise to keep #1 at a minimum, we might as well pack it up. This particular group will have some of #2 for certain -- we have a ton of young guys and if say, one of the sophomore transfers finds themselves behind a freshman or two, I would suspect they would leave. We have unbalanced classes and they will natural balance out. The key, for me, is limiting #3. Create a good culture, be fair, make kids want to stay. If you can't compete money-wise, or if they simply want to play, you have to make the right choice for the program and they have to make the right choice for them. That's going to be reality. You can't avoid all the going pros (though Peak and Derrickson are probably staying in an NIL world), but man, the player conflicts, the discipline issues, the clear conflicts with Ewing. That became a disaster point. It wasn't great before, either, but absolutely zeroing out on the Akinjo / McClung / LeBlanc group was a disaster that can't be repeated. And yeah, you can never know until they are on campus, and really, until there is adversity. But it's clear Cooley is much more in tune with the players than Ewing, and most of the recruits and even transfers seem to be coachable players who are saying all the right things. Where Akinjo's uncle was talking before he got on campus, Williams' dad is talking UP his teammates. Mulready and Burks talk defense first. Mack seems like a great kid. And so on. The only likely way this breaks apart at that kind of disaster level to me is likely if we really don't have the NIL to keep a core. And I don't think we are Arkansas with Jerry Jones, but I don't think we are Seton Hall, either. What I would add to this list and analysis is that even well paid kids getting plenty of PT want to win. They want to be in the tourney every year. They want the publicity and recognition that comes from a winning program. I agree that NIL is critical and that PT is also important but unless and until this program becomes a consistent winner I think we are going to lose quality players every year despite satisfying all the other criteria listed in the post above. One major step now that there appears to be an apparent talent upgrade is for Cooley to show he can develop the athletes he has recruited and turn them into a successful program. |
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Oct 23, 2024 17:55:23 GMT -5
No one is saying nor predicting, eight players will transfer. Putting aside academic casualties, many transfers fall into three categories: 1) short-term mercenaries that probably should have not been recruited in the first place, 2) players who would rather live closer to home and probably wasn't a good fit at the start, or 3) players that lose hope and feel they must transfer to keep the dream alive--they don't see the opportunity that a degree from Georgetown University can provide them as a bench player versus a new start elsewhere. Rare is the basketball player who realizes that no coach can kick him out of school, and at most take away an athletic scholarship (of which he is still eligible for institutional aid). A senior year at Georgetown, free from a 30+ hour time commitment in the gym, is a rare opportunity, and that degree can take him places that a 30-game residency at Samford or Cal-State Northridge or UTSA never will. The last sentence may be wise for some players, but it is also completely out of touch with the way 99% of these players think about college basketball these days. Most players would prefer to get a little money and leave to play at Samford or Cal-State Northridge than ride the pine at Georgetown and not play (or even worse, being at the university but not on the roster at all). As sad as it is for me to say this, I think the value of a Georgetown degree (which is high academically and professionally) is almost irrelevant when it comes to basketball at this point. I really think the key is hope. While it happens, it is more rare for a team that is having success and that is poised for even more success the following year to lose 7-8 players to transfer, than teams like the ones we have featured over the last several years. There is also a lot of statistical noise here too in the sense that you're dealing with a small number of individuals on each team, and individual decisions can make things look way worse than they are. For example, in sequential years, Duke held onto all their players who didn't leave for the NBA or graduate (great retention!), and the following year they lost a huge number of players from their roster. To me, that says very little about the way Scheyer coaches given that it's the same person in two consecutive years with very different results. It's the same thing with Marquette. Again, they've been good under Smart and have kept that hope alive of continuing success, and they have had few transfers. My guess is that when Marquette eventually has a down year, that may change.If we go 2-18 or worse again, I would absolutely expect a lot of transfers. If we go 7-13, show improvement, have some good young players playing big roles, and there are good expectations for 2015, I would not expect many transfers. And even better if we do better than 7-13. Recruiting dictated the retention & transfers in Duke's case the 2023 class wasn't any type of threat to the returning players so they stuck around. The complete opposite was the case with the class of 2024 with Flagg, Knuepell(sp?), Maluech(sp?), Harris etc. add to that the development of Proctor & Foster, and it's easy to see why kids like Stewart, Power & Schutt transferred out. Roach in his last season more than likely wanted a big payday but Scheyer was more than likely unwilling to pony up when he knew he had Proctor & Foster on the squad both of whom have higher upsides than Roach on the team. Duke isn't a good example IMO. As for Marquette, this is what their coach has to say on the record about the transfer portal. |
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Oct 23, 2024 20:02:25 GMT -5
Cooley today said everything about a Epps that some of us here have been suggesting or hoping for over the last several months:
-He won’t have to carry the team offensively
-He will play off the ball far more
-He is expected to increase his assist numbers
-He probably will play less minutes
Yes, yes, yes and yes!
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Oct 24, 2024 6:20:18 GMT -5
Too many things seem good right now. Players and coaches saying the right thing. Roster is healthy. Only thing missing is overplaying someone’s Kenner League stats.
I’ll admit they sucked me into thinking we might have a chance to be better than most predict. Am I crazy to think 8-12 or 9-9 in the league might be attainable?!
To me the first step will be do we have to sweat out any of these cupcake OOC games in November like we have had to the last 4-5 years. If we take care of business as we should, I might have more confidence things are truly better.
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