SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Aug 18, 2024 17:37:00 GMT -5
We need Epps to shoot a lot fewer tough 3s off the dribble. He took a ton of these last year - and missed a ton of them. i don't have the stats, but my sense was that he was a lot better on open catch/shoot 3s than on the contested off the dribble 3s. I was thinking about this, because Epps struck me as a streak shooter who kind of makes or misses irrespective of shot difficulty. But then I started thinking, and I really can't remember many catch and shoot opportunities, period. I don't think the off the dribble aspect is as much a problem for him is when he's closely contested -- those threes he had take at the end of a shot clock when everyone knew he was going to shoot. Epps shot 210 3s last year, so every two misses was a percentage point. Since he made some of these shots, I'm betting that if he doesn't the worst 3 point shot he took every game, he gets up to about 33%, and then to 35% or more if he eliminates 2. That sounds easy, but given that someone sometimes needs to take those crappy shots, I don't know if that level of shot selection gets him there. But toss in some more spot up opportunities, better health, and some year to year improvement and I'm tentatively expecting him to be closer to passable on percent.
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Aug 18, 2024 18:34:07 GMT -5
He could have a massive impact on the ceiling of this team. We haven’t had too many PGs recently that made the sum of the parts greater. Terrell Allen was the last one in my opinion and he was a bit of a revelation after Plan A failed. I will be curious to see how he balances his scoring with being the offensive leader. Assuming a starting 5 of Mack, Epps, Peavy, Fielder, Sorber, there is some scoring ability on that team, and he should have a lot to work with to help him out. If he can cause the defense to react to him, that should leave someone open. If they can share the ball, someone should get a great wide open shot. The other player who could have a big, big impact on the ceiling of this team is Peavy. I am hoping that he is not just a great perimeter defender, but as a senior that his defensive leadership rubs off. Hopefully, we will see great defensive effort from everyone instead of just him. I really have my fingers crossed that he sets the tone and that the others willingly follow and make it their identify. (I’ll refrain from making this an exercise of listing every player). I hope your good vibes about Mack are foreshadowing of the upside case of his performance. I don't disagree with your points on point guard, but Mack and Peavy are also very key in their three point shooting. We lost a lot of three point shooting. Mack and Peavy are going to get big minutes. Mack shot pretty well last year, but Peavy was at 31% in not a ton of attempts. He did shoot 37% in conference (only 38 attempts), but he's never been much of an outside shooter. But we're going to need it. Epps may improve, and Fielder will add some, and perhaps Curtis Williams regains his stroke. But we otherwise have a lot of freshmen, who often struggle with shooting, and none of them really have a rep as a plus shooter from 3. It's a necessary part of nearly every college offense, and the only teams that get away with it tend to be very, very good at everything else. We have about 400-500 3PT attempts gone from the team from last year at about a 35% clip. Mack's going to get somewhere near 200 and Peavy likely 100 even if he doesn't add more to his game. Epps really can't add more volume and while Fielder can grab some, the reality is that even with some reduction, we're looking at 100 to 150 more threes for everyone else. Mack and Peavy have got to shoot well, because I doubt we see great numbers from that last 100 or so. You sent me down a rabbit hole with some great insight. Here are the team 3 point quantities for last season Creighton. 1018 UConn 951 Villanova 933 Marquette 928 Providence 891 Butler 778 Georgetown 766 St. John’s - 696 Seton Hall - 681 Xavier 678 DePaul 597 I think 750 attempts is a reasonable guess of next season’s attempts. Here is the top high volume 3 point shooter by team. Scheirman 289 Spencer 225 Kameron 234 Devin Carter 223 Jenkins - 158 Dawes -234 Epps - 210 Brooks 197 Olivari - 259 Oden - 115 Haussen 160 I have to think that Epps is going to get say 200-250 attempts. Mack is also going to get say 200 attempts. Peavy shot 87 attempts last year in 29 minutes per game. I expect to him a bigger role for the Hoyas with 100+ attempts. Fielder had 54 attempts in 15 minutes. Assuming he keeps making them, his attempts should go up to 100+ So ignoring the centers and the bench, we look like we have 600 attempts expected. That leaves 150 for the rest in this scenario. I think that shows that if a player like McKenna or Curtis Williams starts making them there should be a role to play. SFHoya99 - I think you are dead-on about 3 point shooting
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Aug 19, 2024 10:54:48 GMT -5
We got virtually no points off PNR or our center getting a pass and making a strong offensive move. Thomas and Julius are going to give us substantial improvements in these high percentage shots. Are we really going to miss the 3 pt shots that Massoud took, given his defensive and rebounding limitations? The primary source of our points was Epps and Styles shooting 3s and Epps driving to the basket and putting up a floater. With this roster I see a lot more ball movement creating open shots underneath and from 3. If we get some defensive rebounds from Thomas, Julius, and Drew, maybe we will have some very high percentage fast break baskets. With Mack, Epps, and Fielder on the floor we have three high percentage 3 pt shooters. No one is going to pack in the defense and dare us to shoot 3s. I think you make another excellent point. I think I have seen highlights of Mack being pretty crafty in the PNR. Mack and Sorber should clean up. Mack and Julius should do well. I think Mack and Burks could be really interesting. Burks is so dynamic athletically that I think he would be tough to stop. I think Mack and Fielder would be far better in the pick and pop. From my recollection, Fielder really struggled improvising athletically on the way to the rim. PNR could be a really effective, powerful part of our offense next year.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Aug 19, 2024 11:03:31 GMT -5
Fielder did show a couple of decent moves to the rim late in the season, I am sure he has worked hard on that over the summer. But your point regarding the other bigs is spot on, and more reason for some optimism going into the fall.
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Aug 19, 2024 11:14:11 GMT -5
Just so happens that all of Fielder’s scoring highlights from his freshman season are now on YouTube. Though I don’t understand why the person who put it together went backwards as far as the games are concerned (did the same thing for the Epps edit). Now people can make a judgment on how at least his successful drives looked.
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Aug 19, 2024 12:30:15 GMT -5
Fielder did show a couple of decent moves to the rim late in the season, I am sure he has worked hard on that over the summer. But your point regarding the other bigs is spot on, and more reason for some optimism going into the fall. He did, but my recollection was that those were drives from the 3 point line with possession of the ball and not 'rolls' where he had to catch the ball, adjust his footwork and finish successfully. At least that is the recollection of this old brain.
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bigskyhoya
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Post by bigskyhoya on Aug 19, 2024 12:36:45 GMT -5
Just so happens that all of Fielder’s scoring highlights from his freshman season are now on YouTube. Though I don’t understand why the person who put it together went backwards as far as the games are concerned (did the same thing for the Epps edit). Now people can make a judgment on how at least his successful drives looked. I haven't watched the clips but it doesn't take him long with that frame to cover a lot of ground and I remember him doing it a few times.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Aug 19, 2024 12:40:27 GMT -5
Fielder did show a couple of decent moves to the rim late in the season, I am sure he has worked hard on that over the summer. But your point regarding the other bigs is spot on, and more reason for some optimism going into the fall. He did, but my recollection was that those were drives from the 3 point line with possession of the ball and not 'rolls' where he had to catch the ball, adjust his footwork and finish successful. At least that is the recollection of this old brain. Yeah, he mostly did pick and pops, and then when the defense recovered and often overcommitted, he'd drive to the hoop. His length was a real asset there -- once he got a step he was hard to stop. We did run some pick and rolls last year, but mostly or all with Epps and Cook. They were really effective, actually, but we'd seem to run them in 2-3 play spurts maybe once or twice a game and then they'd disappear. I don't know if that was because they saw a match up or a defensive shift that they exploited and then the other team adjusted or just an inability to keep hitting something that was working pretty well. If you watch the video with Fielder, he's clearly trying to do a lot of slip screens to post up for a jumper, and it works -- both defenders tend to follow Epps quite a bit (although this obviously is just Fielder's makes so of course they did). But on these, it's a rare highlight through the first 10 minutes or so where Fielder even looks like he is setting a real screen or even thinking of going to the hoop on a roll. I'm not sure either he or Epps were doing that much reading of the defense there. Even Epps' finds on the pick and pop looked pretty much due to being completely shut down rather than reading the double quickly and dishing to him. Most of the Epps - Cook pnrs looked that way, too -- Cook was rolling no matter what, and Epps was lobbing no matter what. He's got a lot of Kevin Braswell in him -- a good passer, gets lots of assists, but I'm pretty sure he either has decided what he's doing long before he makes his move or he's passing once he's stuck.
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jwp91
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Post by jwp91 on Aug 19, 2024 12:53:38 GMT -5
Just so happens that all of Fielder’s scoring highlights from his freshman season are now on YouTube. Though I don’t understand why the person who put it together went backwards as far as the games are concerned (did the same thing for the Epps edit). Now people can make a judgment on how at least his successful drives looked. A couple of comments.... This video fires me up. We could be so good in 2025-2026. Fielder has such amazing touch on his 3 pointer. The way it drops through the net is beautiful. I think Sorber has the same quality. It is always dangerous to make claims based on your own aged memory when someone has subsequently posted video with all the evidence. Fortunately for me, I counted ONE plain vanilla pick and roll for the whole season that resulted in a basket. A more interesting video would have all makes and misses to see where he was not ready. (Can you believe I just criticized the non-paid work that someone did to provide us with such a great video? I can't believe it either) Fielder's ceiling is pretty high. I hope he gets healthy and is ready to take the next step in his progress this season.
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Post by pahoya21 on Aug 19, 2024 14:04:05 GMT -5
Fielder plays off his jump shot, no doubt about it. He's got a nice release and looks to attack the defensive closeout when it's too aggressive- text book. Also uses his off arm to push off when driving to the basket, which creates space. I look forward to seeing how much he's improved this year. Hopefully he can stay out of foul trouble.
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rhw485
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Post by rhw485 on Aug 19, 2024 14:46:52 GMT -5
Just so happens that all of Fielder’s scoring highlights from his freshman season are now on YouTube. Though I don’t understand why the person who put it together went backwards as far as the games are concerned (did the same thing for the Epps edit). Now people can make a judgment on how at least his successful drives looked. Thank you for posting. For me, the big open question on Fielder is what position is he going to play? All of the highlights from last year are naturally at the 5. That's where those pick and pops are super dangerous, as you have a big guy who doesnt really want to venture out there being forced outside their comfort zone. If you pair him with a frontcourt player who isn't a 3 point threat, would that still work? In those clips where Soriano and Oduro lose Fielder, those guys would probably be guarding Sorber instead. And then there's a crowd in the paint waiting for Mack and Epps etc. Now I think Sorber will have enough range where in theory they could operate at the elbows, and maybe he extends to 3 over time. But if Fielder is playing the 4, I think it would then be a lot easier to switch that action as his defender would be more athletic and comfortable on the perimeter. And then the question becomes can Fielder punish smaller defenders on switches on the block. Hopefully they're working on those counters now. So while i think it's pretty obvious Fielder benefits offensively from playing the 5, then it becomes can we hold up defensively w him at center. I personally think the answer is yes and I'm less worried about the 1 or 2 bully-ball centers we'll face. But it does also potentially become a foul trouble thing if he's forced to be the lone rim protector. That's why I personally think Burks or McKenna are super interesting. Can Peavy, one of those at the 4, and Fielder at the 5 hold up? Either way, I do think Cooley has options where he won't be pigeon-holed into one position. Ideally you'd have lineup flexibility to play either, but how they deploy him will be very interesting.
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bills
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Post by bills on Aug 19, 2024 15:54:17 GMT -5
The people guarding Fielder when he plays the 4 will not be 6’10’ and that will make it more difficult for them to block his 3 pt shots which he releases quickly. Add to that good ball movement and screens which will give him some open shots. That defender can’t double team Thomas or Julius because that would leave a 40+% shooter wide open. That will create opportunities for or centers to show their offensive moves under the gasket. That all adds up to our best offensive sets will have Fielder at the 4 amid Thomas out Julius at Center,
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dense
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Post by dense on Aug 19, 2024 16:03:10 GMT -5
The people guarding Fielder when he plays the 4 will not be 6’10’ and that will make it more difficult for them to block his 3 pt shots which he releases quickly. Add to that good ball movement and screens which will give him some open shots. That defender can’t double team Thomas or Julius because that would leave a 40+% shooter wide open. That will create opportunities for or centers to show their offensive moves under the gasket. That all adds up to our best offensive sets will have Fielder at the 4 amid Thomas out Julius at Center, Fielder would be more of a roll option also if he has a smaller guy guarding him. So it will give him advantages in the post. I remember Horchler had that happen often for him. Where he might pick and pop then be able to just bully the man into a bucket.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Aug 19, 2024 16:16:00 GMT -5
Just so happens that all of Fielder’s scoring highlights from his freshman season are now on YouTube. Though I don’t understand why the person who put it together went backwards as far as the games are concerned (did the same thing for the Epps edit). Now people can make a judgment on how at least his successful drives looked. Thank you for posting. For me, the big open question on Fielder is what position is he going to play? All of the highlights from last year are naturally at the 5. That's where those pick and pops are super dangerous, as you have a big guy who doesnt really want to venture out there being forced outside their comfort zone. If you pair him with a frontcourt player who isn't a 3 point threat, would that still work? In those clips where Soriano and Oduro lose Fielder, those guys would probably be guarding Sorber instead. And then there's a crowd in the paint waiting for Mack and Epps etc. Now I think Sorber will have enough range where in theory they could operate at the elbows, and maybe he extends to 3 over time. But if Fielder is playing the 4, I think it would then be a lot easier to switch that action as his defender would be more athletic and comfortable on the perimeter. And then the question becomes can Fielder punish smaller defenders on switches on the block. Hopefully they're working on those counters now. So while i think it's pretty obvious Fielder benefits offensively from playing the 5, then it becomes can we hold up defensively w him at center. I personally think the answer is yes and I'm less worried about the 1 or 2 bully-ball centers we'll face. But it does also potentially become a foul trouble thing if he's forced to be the lone rim protector. That's why I personally think Burks or McKenna are super interesting. Can Peavy, one of those at the 4, and Fielder at the 5 hold up? Either way, I do think Cooley has options where he won't be pigeon-holed into one position. Ideally you'd have lineup flexibility to play either, but how they deploy him will be very interesting. This is where 5 out sets would play well.. stick Fielder on the wing or corner and run PnR with others..
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Aug 19, 2024 16:35:34 GMT -5
Just so happens that all of Fielder’s scoring highlights from his freshman season are now on YouTube. Though I don’t understand why the person who put it together went backwards as far as the games are concerned (did the same thing for the Epps edit). Now people can make a judgment on how at least his successful drives looked. Actually I now realize this edit doesn't have all of his scoring plays. He scored against TCU for example.
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Aug 19, 2024 16:41:06 GMT -5
The people guarding Fielder when he plays the 4 will not be 6’10’ and that will make it more difficult for them to block his 3 pt shots which he releases quickly. Add to that good ball movement and screens which will give him some open shots. That defender can’t double team Thomas or Julius because that would leave a 40+% shooter wide open. That will create opportunities for or centers to show their offensive moves under the gasket. That all adds up to our best offensive sets will have Fielder at the 4 amid Thomas out Julius at Center, These were some similar thoughts I had going into the summer. But then everyone got aboard the Jordan Burks train, a guy who took a total of five three point shots all of last season and may not be able to spread the court yet.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Aug 19, 2024 16:52:22 GMT -5
Just so happens that all of Fielder’s scoring highlights from his freshman season are now on YouTube. Though I don’t understand why the person who put it together went backwards as far as the games are concerned (did the same thing for the Epps edit). Now people can make a judgment on how at least his successful drives looked. Thank you for posting. For me, the big open question on Fielder is what position is he going to play? All of the highlights from last year are naturally at the 5. That's where those pick and pops are super dangerous, as you have a big guy who doesnt really want to venture out there being forced outside their comfort zone. If you pair him with a frontcourt player who isn't a 3 point threat, would that still work? In those clips where Soriano and Oduro lose Fielder, those guys would probably be guarding Sorber instead. And then there's a crowd in the paint waiting for Mack and Epps etc. Now I think Sorber will have enough range where in theory they could operate at the elbows, and maybe he extends to 3 over time. But if Fielder is playing the 4, I think it would then be a lot easier to switch that action as his defender would be more athletic and comfortable on the perimeter. And then the question becomes can Fielder punish smaller defenders on switches on the block. Hopefully they're working on those counters now. So while i think it's pretty obvious Fielder benefits offensively from playing the 5, then it becomes can we hold up defensively w him at center. I personally think the answer is yes and I'm less worried about the 1 or 2 bully-ball centers we'll face. But it does also potentially become a foul trouble thing if he's forced to be the lone rim protector. That's why I personally think Burks or McKenna are super interesting. Can Peavy, one of those at the 4, and Fielder at the 5 hold up? Either way, I do think Cooley has options where he won't be pigeon-holed into one position. Ideally you'd have lineup flexibility to play either, but how they deploy him will be very interesting. Good post. Like you, I suspect Drew plays a decent amount of center next year, even with the late addition of Julius. Our defense was much better with him than without last year, and I think he's far more likely to have added some strength in the offseason than added enough quickness to handle small ball lineups as a 4. A big question is whether his three point shooting is as strong from the corner as it is from the top. I think he hits a couple of corner threes in that video, but most of them are from the center. He's our best shooting 4 option (I mean, he may be our best shooting option, period) and while it's not a complete use of his skillset, stretching out the defense and providing an outlet in the corner can still be very valuable. Agree with the other poster that adding a roll to help him punish smaller players will be valuable. He seems more comfortable facing up but a few post moves would do wonders for creating mismatches. So few bigs can exploit a smaller guy these days.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Aug 19, 2024 17:40:10 GMT -5
Imagine transition sets like these..
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calhoya
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Post by calhoya on Aug 19, 2024 17:49:31 GMT -5
Agree that Fielder will present problems on the perimeter to smaller 4s, particularly as SFHoya says if he can hit the corner 3. However, the flip side is that Fielder struggled to guard quicker players last year and found himself in a lot of foul trouble, recognizing that some of that occurred while playing in the 5 and perhaps nursing an injury. Fielder had the third most fouls (72) on the team last year behind Cook (87) and Styles (82) despite playing (465 min.) less than half the minutes of Styles (1,073 min.) and 406 few minutes than Cook (871 min.).
I think that Fielder is a major key to this season and retaining and developing him is very important to Cooley's ability to build this program. My hope is that wherever he plays this year he is better able to defend the smaller or quicker players. Absent that improvement he may be forced to spend the majority of his time at the 5 where surprisingly the Hoyas may have a bit of a logjam with two Freshman who need PT.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Aug 19, 2024 18:02:12 GMT -5
These were some similar thoughts I had going into the summer. But then everyone got aboard the Jordan Burks train, a guy who took a total of five three point shots all of last season and may not be able to spread the court yet. Jordan Burks is likely to be much better at defending smaller, quicker guys playing the four. Drew's clearly more skilled, but Burks has a quickness edge and his wingspan makes him someone who has the physical tools to guard a variety of players. As calhoya mentions, Fielder's PT at the four will largely be dependent on if he can guard quicker fours. That was one of the big reasons for his low PT last year. If he can, that opens up a lot of possibilities.
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