Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2021 13:04:05 GMT -5
Counterpoint. If you are the main guy that a big time program is honing in on, you probably are getting tougher looks in those games. During his conference games teams probably couldn't over commit to him and thus his % was higher. I would assume (having never seen the kid play) that a move up in competition means lower usage, higher percentage shots. Could just be hoya colored glasses though. He was the 1st or 2nd option at Citadel. Ideally he will be the 4th or 5th option with us, so should get more open looks. I get so sick and tired of these damn stat keepers here on Hoyatalk. They think their little stat books are the bible!
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beenaround
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Post by beenaround on Apr 19, 2021 13:05:07 GMT -5
I've seen only the highlights. However, I think we all agree next year's team will need some outside shooting, and an experienced guy , at 6 ft 7 with a good stroke, will at worst be a very valuable role player. I am not expecting that , in addition, he will be a great defender or ball handler. If he were all three, he'd be heading off to the pros somewhere . Nice pickup at this point.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Apr 19, 2021 13:08:04 GMT -5
Okay, I figured out the reason for this discrepancy. Against Division-1 competition ONLY, he shot 32.1% and his O rating was 104.5. If you include his 4 games against non-D1 competition, he shot 34.8% and his O rating was 108.1. He shot 50% from three point range, over 42 attempts, in the 4 games he played against non-Division 1 competition. And yes, while the three point line is the same, it's not a great sign that his three point percentage was almost 3 points lower excluding the non-Division 1 opponents. Again, I think his addition to the team is solid, he brings good size, he shoots twos very well, free throws very well, and he doesn't turn the ball over - all really good things. But, he is not a sharpshooter from three point range. Counterpoint. If you are the main guy that a big time program is honing in on, you probably are getting tougher looks in those games. During his conference games teams probably couldn't over commit to him and thus his % was higher. I would assume (having never seen the kid play) that a move up in competition means lower usage, higher percentage shots. Could just be hoya colored glasses though. Some relevant data points: Carey 19-20 (Siena): 20.6% usage, 40.9% FG, 38.2% 3PT Carey 20-21 (Gtown): 14.9% usage, 46.7% FG, 44.9% 3PT Bile 19-20 (NWSt): 30.9%(!) usage, 48.0% FG, 37.6% 3PT Bile 20-21 (Gtown): 23.6% usage, 40.7% FG, 39.4% 3PT Think in general lower usage will equate to higher percentage shots, but you're more likely to maintain or shoot better if you're based on the perimeter as opposed to the post. Low/mid major opponents on average will have less height in the paint to finish over. Rice's usage last season was 22.1%, so it's not unreasonable to expect him to hit ~35-37% of his 3s next year with reduced usage. Should get plenty of open looks.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Apr 19, 2021 13:25:34 GMT -5
Again, I think his addition to the team is solid, he brings good size, he shoots twos very well, free throws very well, and he doesn't turn the ball over - all really good things. But, he is not a sharpshooter from three point range.I think you will be pleasantly surprised.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2021 14:02:52 GMT -5
Again, I think his addition to the team is solid, he brings good size, he shoots twos very well, free throws very well, and he doesn't turn the ball over - all really good things. But, he is not a sharpshooter from three point range.I think you will be pleasantly surprised. And he's not a sharpshooter, he's a three point specialist.
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guru
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Post by guru on Apr 19, 2021 14:28:10 GMT -5
Again, I think his addition to the team is solid, he brings good size, he shoots twos very well, free throws very well, and he doesn't turn the ball over - all really good things. But, he is not a sharpshooter from three point range.I think you will be pleasantly surprised. Mind you, the poster making a definitive statement about this player’ s shooting ability has never actually seen him take a shot.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Apr 19, 2021 14:59:38 GMT -5
I think you will be pleasantly surprised. Mind you, the poster making a definitive statement about this player’ s shooting ability has never actually seen him take a shot. Be fair Guru, would you call a player with a career 32.9%. from 3 in almost 800 attempts a sharpshooter? None of us would call Blair a sharpshooter either & their numbers are very similar...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2021 15:02:27 GMT -5
Mind you, the poster making a definitive statement about this player’ s shooting ability has never actually seen him take a shot. Be fair Guru, would you call a player with a career 32.9%. from 3 in almost 800 attempts a sharpshooter? None of us would call Blair a sharpshooter either & their numbers are very similar... Etomic, why do you all always grab your stat books to justify your arguments?
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Apr 19, 2021 15:08:53 GMT -5
Be fair Guru, would you call a player with a career 32.9%. from 3 in almost 800 attempts a sharpshooter? None of us would call Blair a sharpshooter either & their numbers are very similar... Etomic, why do you all always grab your stat books to justify your arguments? Stats = facts in my view
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smokeyjack
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by smokeyjack on Apr 19, 2021 15:09:44 GMT -5
Look, is he Steph Curry? No. But he’s good enough that a D1 team built its entire offense around him. At GU, he will be one of a number of options, so as Rock correctly pointed out, both the quality of his shots and his shooting pct should go up while his usage will undoubtedly go down. Personally, I think he’s a great addition - very experienced shooter who has scored at an all-conference level in college.
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paranoia2
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Post by paranoia2 on Apr 19, 2021 15:25:31 GMT -5
In the blessed name of the great STEPHEN DOMINGO let’s see this guy’s quick release knock down some corner 3’s!!
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rockhoya
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Post by rockhoya on Apr 19, 2021 15:38:16 GMT -5
Etomic, why do you all always grab your stat books to justify your arguments? Stats = facts in my view Yet facts are not the same thing as truth.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Apr 19, 2021 15:46:53 GMT -5
Yet facts are not the same thing as truth. This is nonsense. The guy shot 34.8% against all competition last year, 32.1% against Division 1. That is the "truth" about how he shot in the past. If it isn't, I would like you to tell me what it is. Now, as for the future, what will he shoot? I am not an oracle, so I have no idea. With lower usage his percentages may very well rise. That is the hope. But the idea this guy is a "three point specialist" because he takes a lot of attempts is short-sighted. Yes, he MIGHT shoot better, and there are reasons to think he will. I hope my concerns are unwarranted. When/if he shoots 40% this coming year, I'll gladly admit my concerns were off the mark.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Apr 19, 2021 15:50:57 GMT -5
I think you will be pleasantly surprised. Mind you, the poster making a definitive statement about this player’ s shooting ability has never actually seen him take a shot. First, you're moving the goal posts. I never made a "definitive statement about this player's shooting ability." I even acknowledged with less usage and taking fewer shots the quality of his shots should improve. So, you're simply wrong and continuing your strange display of being contrarian to anything I post. Second, I have also never seen Lebron James or Steph Curry take shots in person, but I am pretty confident I can say they are both good shooters. Wilt Chamberlain was playing before I was alive, but I am confident in definitively saying he was a great player. Patrick Ewing was at Georgetown when I was between 2-6 years old, but I am confident in definitively saying he was a Georgetown great. Third, if the new threshold for commenting on HoyaTalk is that you have to "actually seen him take a shot," it's going to get quiet quick. The funny thing about you guys is that I have said I THINK HE IS A SOLID ADDITION TO OUR TEAM. He doesn't turn it over, he shoots twos very well. He has good size. He seems like a disciplined good guy. I am glad he joined the team. But, I am getting piled on for merely pointing out that while Rice took a lot of shots, his percentages are below what one would typically associate with a three point specialist. The facts are the facts on that. I acknowledge, as others have said, there are reasons to think his percentages will go up with less usage and being a lower option than he was at The Citadel. Now, if you want to define "three point specialist" as "Rice took a ton of threes!" then under that definition, yes he's a three point specialist.
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Apr 19, 2021 16:05:21 GMT -5
Yet facts are not the same thing as truth. I won't debate that fact...
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SDHoya
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Post by SDHoya on Apr 19, 2021 16:17:38 GMT -5
Yet facts are not the same thing as truth. This is nonsense. The guy shot 34.8% against all competition last year, 32.1% against Division 1. That is the "truth" about how he shot in the past. If it isn't, I would like you to tell me what it is. Now, as for the future, what will he shoot? I am not an oracle, so I have no idea. With lower usage his percentages may very well rise. That is the hope. But the idea this guy is a "three point specialist" because he takes a lot of attempts is short-sighted. Yes, he MIGHT shoot better, and there are reasons to think he will. I hope my concerns are unwarranted. When/if he shoots 40% this coming year, I'll gladly admit my concerns were off the mark. And if you take out the end of season slump games, he shot 36.4% against D1 opponents last year. Oh, and if you just look at his games against VMI, he shot 40%! See, I can also selectively pick and choose data to support my point. Seems like the dude has the potential to help spread the floor next year. Who knows whether he'll shoot 30% or 45%.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2021 16:42:48 GMT -5
Etomic, why do you all always grab your stat books to justify your arguments? Stats = facts in my view Are you saying that in any given situation or circumstances that he will only make 3 out of 10 three point shots? Is that what you're saying?
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95hoya
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Post by 95hoya on Apr 19, 2021 16:47:05 GMT -5
I think he's a major reach. Hope for the best I guess.
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hoyaguy
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Post by hoyaguy on Apr 19, 2021 16:55:43 GMT -5
It is obvious what his role will probably be and I do not think the staff would take him when there are literally over a thousand players to choose from if they did not believe he would be a solid contributor
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EtomicB
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Post by EtomicB on Apr 19, 2021 17:25:37 GMT -5
Are you saying that in any given situation or circumstances that he will only make 3 out of 10 three point shots? Is that what you're saying? No, I'm saying his career stats aren't the stats of what I would consider a sharpshooter or 3pt specialist...
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