|
Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Mar 6, 2019 8:59:21 GMT -5
If we get 3 more wins, that means our NET improved in to 50s (at least) and we would almost definitely have gained 1-2 more Quad 1 wins. That’s a very different place than where we are now, and a far tougher one to leave the Hoyas out of the tournament.
If the season ended today, we’d Most likely be in the Next Four Out.
|
|
daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,364
|
Post by daveg023 on Mar 6, 2019 9:01:15 GMT -5
I have no problem with Texas’ resume or other major comference teams with multiple Q1 wins. What I do have a problem with is a team like Furman whose resume is built on one OT win at Nova. Their next best win is UNC Greensboro. The only other major conference team they played was LSU, who beat them by 18 They have a total of 1 Q1 win and of their 24 wins, 14 are against Q4 teams and 2 against non D1 teams. I know they say they look at every team blindly, but does the committee want to have Furman play a stand-alone game against say Clemson on that first Tuesday or would you rather have Patrick Ewing and the Georgetown Hoyas? I don't think we're going to be in any position to complain about virtually any team that gets in instead of us. All of these teams (certainly including the Hoyas) have deeply flawed resumes. There's tons of ways to slice the onion here. Lots of ways to make virtually any of these teams look better or worse than anyone else. Out of conference, we played exactly one team (Syracuse) with a NET in the top 50...and we lost. Furman played two...and went 1-1. (Advantage them, though barely.) Even in conference, only Marquette, Creighton and Villanova are top 50 NET teams. We've played five games against that group so far and are 1-4. Furman has played two such teams (both Wofford) in conference and lost to both. Advantage us, but geez, neither team's results are wonderfully impressive. How about worst loss? They have one loss to a team rated 165...other than that their worst loss is to number 66 E. Tenn. St. We've lost to 141, 114, 70, 63, and 61. (Advantage them.) Do I think we're a "better" team -- especially right now -- yes I do, but I'm biased. But in terms of "deserve a bid?" I couldn't really argue against the Committee either way. That's why the Marquette game (and/or getting a win against them or Nova in the BET) would be so huge. At Butler and at St Johns are Q1 wins. We have 3 to Furman’s 1. Not that it matters other than optics, but our Q1 losses (at Cuse, vs Marquette, at Creighton, at Xavier, vs Nova) were all closer games than Furman’s 18 pt loss against LSU.
|
|
GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
|
Post by GUJook97 on Mar 6, 2019 9:07:49 GMT -5
If we get 3 more wins, that means our NET improved in to 50s (at least) and we would almost definitely have gained 1-2 more Quad 1 wins. That’s a very different place than where we are now, and a far tougher one to leave the Hoyas out of the tournament. If the season ended today, we’d Most likely be in the Next Four Out. Im with you. We should definitely make the tourney with 3 more wins. I just agree with the point that if we get left out, it may be as simple as some late bid stealers (it always happens.) What if Creighton wins the BET? It's not that crazy.
|
|
|
Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 6, 2019 9:13:58 GMT -5
I don't think we're going to be in any position to complain about virtually any team that gets in instead of us. All of these teams (certainly including the Hoyas) have deeply flawed resumes. There's tons of ways to slice the onion here. Lots of ways to make virtually any of these teams look better or worse than anyone else. Out of conference, we played exactly one team (Syracuse) with a NET in the top 50...and we lost. Furman played two...and went 1-1. (Advantage them, though barely.) Even in conference, only Marquette, Creighton and Villanova are top 50 NET teams. We've played five games against that group so far and are 1-4. Furman has played two such teams (both Wofford) in conference and lost to both. Advantage us, but geez, neither team's results are wonderfully impressive. How about worst loss? They have one loss to a team rated 165...other than that their worst loss is to number 66 E. Tenn. St. We've lost to 141, 114, 70, 63, and 61. (Advantage them.) Do I think we're a "better" team -- especially right now -- yes I do, but I'm biased. But in terms of "deserve a bid?" I couldn't really argue against the Committee either way. That's why the Marquette game (and/or getting a win against them or Nova in the BET) would be so huge. At Butler and at St Johns are Q1 wins. We have 3 to Furman’s 1. Not that it matters other than optics, but our Q1 losses (at Cuse, vs Marquette, at Creighton, at Xavier, vs Nova) were all closer games than Furman’s 18 pt loss against LSU. Yes, we have more Q1 wins than they do. And more Q2 wins than they do. Absolutely. My point is simply that Q1 and Q2 wins aren't the only way to look at these things. (And for what it's worth, both their semifinal and final games in the SoCon tourney would be Q1 games.) Our resume may well be better now (and in a few days)...but I don't think it's unequivocally better.
|
|
daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,364
|
Post by daveg023 on Mar 6, 2019 9:18:08 GMT -5
At Butler and at St Johns are Q1 wins. We have 3 to Furman’s 1. Not that it matters other than optics, but our Q1 losses (at Cuse, vs Marquette, at Creighton, at Xavier, vs Nova) were all closer games than Furman’s 18 pt loss against LSU. Yes, we have more Q1 wins than they do. And more Q2 wins than they do. Absolutely. My point is simply that Q1 and Q2 wins aren't the only way to look at these things. (And for what it's worth, both their semifinal and final games in the SoCon tourney would be Q1 games.) Our resume may well be better now (and in a few days)...but I don't think it's unequivocally better. Fair enough. I do think more weight is given to quality wins, this the discussion above on Oklahoma, Texas, and Indiana. I think my bigger point was that if resumes are similar our brand would hopefully mean something over putting them in.
|
|
|
Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 6, 2019 9:26:27 GMT -5
I'm not saying anything that people (including the people on the tournament committee) don't know, but there's incredible line-drawing problems with how this is all done. I like that they differentiate between home, away and neutral when determining the quadrants, but there's no magic to where they put the lines. I mean, is a home game against NET 31 really worse than an away game against NET 75? Dunno.
Depending on what happens, our win against Villanova, our home loss to Marquette, and our away loss to Xavier are all in danger of falling out of Q1. Our away win vs. Providence could move in to Q1, which would be huge. In the BET, we may play Creighton, Butler, SH, or St.J -- that game(s) is going to likely be right on the border of Q1 and Q2. And which why it falls could be a difference maker, which is silly.
Again, though, all this goes to show that for any team among the final, say, last 5-10 in or last 5-10 out there's a reasonable argument for or against.
|
|
|
Post by BeantownHoya on Mar 6, 2019 9:40:50 GMT -5
I'm not saying anything that people (including the people on the tournament committee) don't know, but there's incredible line-drawing problems with how this is all done. I like that they differentiate between home, away and neutral when determining the quadrants, but there's no magic to where they put the lines. I mean, is a home game against NET 31 really worse than an away game against NET 75? Dunno. Depending on what happens, our win against Villanova, our home loss to Marquette, and our away loss to Xavier are all in danger of falling out of Q1. Our away win vs. Providence could move in to Q1, which would be huge. In the BET, we may play Creighton, Butler, SH, or St.J -- that game(s) is going to likely be right on the border of Q1 and Q2. And which why it falls could be a difference maker, which is silly. Again, though, all this goes to show that for any team among the final, say, last 5-10 in or last 5-10 out there's a reasonable argument for or against. I agree w/alot of this. Obviously beating DePaul comes first or none of this means a single thing.. and last time I looked we are underdogs tonight according to Vegas. My best amateur analysis is you root for Gtown and against the following.... Temple Seton Hall Alabama TCU St John's Arizona St Clemson Ohio st Indiana These are the teams we are fighting for the last spots if you ask me. Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Utah St punched their tickets last night if they hadn't already.
|
|
hoyazeke
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,837
|
Post by hoyazeke on Mar 6, 2019 9:44:54 GMT -5
I would 100 percent rather see Furman. Look, we all want gtown to make it, but 99/100 people would rather see a 5/12 Maryland/Furman matchup than a 5/12 Maryland/B6 one. It’s quite literally the best thing about that NCAA tourney and honestly, it’s pretty stupid that the committee hasn’t figured this out yet. Change the matchup to 5/12 Kansa/Furman and I agree but its probably 50/50 if its Maryland/Georgetown.....a regional rivalry on the opening night....ratings explosion....
|
|
hoyazeke
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,837
|
Post by hoyazeke on Mar 6, 2019 9:53:20 GMT -5
If by chance we: 1.) Beat DePaul, 2.) Play Quette close W or L, 3.) Get at least 1 win in the BET, and 4.) Are nervous watching on selection sunday.......I'll be...5.) Ecstatic with our season......when was the last time we were nervous on selection sunday?....it'll suck looking back on missed opportunities early in the season but the future is bright.....In Ewing I Trust!!!!!
|
|
NCHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,927
|
Post by NCHoya on Mar 6, 2019 10:39:32 GMT -5
My hope is this discussion rages on to next Sunday, that will make this season a tremendous success. Beat DePaul!!!!
Personally, I see our best and most realistic path as 1) avoiding Wednesday at MSG and 2) winning 3 straight on a neutral floor against a bunch of solid, but not great, BE teams. The conference's overall mediocrity is the main issue this season. Losses hurt more than normal and wins do not mean as much. This sets up a BET that is wide open for us and many other teams.
And I know it is not politically correct with this group, but I would rather see more opportunities for the little guys to get into the NCAAs. The reality is we and other major conference bubble teams are "meh" teams who had so many opportunities to get the job done this season. I would like to see the teams that have dominated their level get a chance at the big boys on a neutral court. Removing my BE bias, there is nothing worse than seeing a 29 win team lose their conference tournament final and get left out. To be clear, I am not talking about an 11 loss St Marys team, I am talking about the 26-4 NM St or the 25-4 Belmont teams that will probably not make it if they lose in their conference tournaments. For me that is a bigger "tragedy" than not allowing a 17/18 win major conference team in the tournament.
|
|
|
Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 6, 2019 10:40:47 GMT -5
That assumes that we would be the last one out. If we are being honest with ourselves, without a finish that includes 2 more wins over Marquette/Villanova, how does the committee pick us above Seton Hall, with non-conference schedule that included a neutral court win over Kentucky, a road win over Maryland when our head to head was 1-1, one blowout loss and one double OT win. I'll be happy beating DePaul tonight and playing on Thursday in BET for first time in 4 years.
Agree. Although, I think Seton Hall can’t be considered that much ahead of us when they lost to DePaul twice. But, point taken. Its hard to complain if we get left out with only 3 more wins. So, we don't know ultimately how the committee will decide and what precise factors they will weigh in assessing and selecting the last ~4 teams from the bubble. Plus, there's also a lot of basketball left to play and a myriad of outcomes remaining. When the season is over and if we are still in the mix, we can all take a stab at making the best arguments to include Georgetown. Still several days and games away. However, for me, the entire fun of this exercise is the look at results on a day-by-day basis to see how the Hoyas are stacking up against their competition on the bubble in real time. As it relates directly to Seton Hall, what I can say this morning is, after reviewing bracketmatrix.com and clicking through to many of the underlying brackets, I am confident that a Seton Hall loss and Hoya win tonight will move us ahead of Seton Hall in the vast majority of the underlying predictive brackets. Seton Hall is routinely on the 12 line and one of the last teams in. Georgetown is routinely among the first 4 teams out grouping. I think a Hoya win and Hall loss will essentially flip flop our positioning. Another huge result, although a long-shot on paper, would be if Notre Dame somehow beats Clemson tonight. Clemson is routinely listed on the 12 line and one of the last teams in. Again, I think a Hoya win and a Clemson loss will essentially flip flop our positioning.
|
|
hoyainla
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Suspended
Posts: 4,719
|
Post by hoyainla on Mar 6, 2019 10:41:11 GMT -5
Exactly. People seem to be struggling to understand that your overall record and even your conference record don’t really matter. You need to look at who teams beat and who they lost to (and to a lesser extent where - and unfortunately for us it seems the “when” doesnt seem to matter anymore or as much). I have no problem with Texas’ resume or other major comference teams with multiple Q1 wins. What I do have a problem with is a team like Furman whose resume is built on one OT win at Nova. Their next best win is UNC Greensboro. The only other major conference team they played was LSU, who beat them by 18 They have a total of 1 Q1 win and of their 24 wins, 14 are against Q4 teams and 2 against non D1 teams. I know they say they look at every team blindly, but does the committee want to have Furman play a stand-alone game against say Clemson on that first Tuesday or would you rather have Patrick Ewing and the Georgetown Hoyas? They also have the win at Loyola-Ill which if we are being honest is as good as any non conference win we had with Ill being without their best player. Yes I know the computer doesn't know that. That being said i believe that Furman would be right in the middle of this muddled BE pack if they played in the BE. If you use your thinking no non major conference team should get and at large because their conference is going to be filled with Q3 and Q4 games. We showed that even we can lose Q3 games as most bubble teams can. Also most major conference teams want no part of these mid majors in OOC because it's a no win situation usually. Major conference teams control their own destiny from that regard much more that an mid major can. There may be some mid major resumes that are not worthy but Furman isn't one of them. If i were on the committee I would look for teams that have shown they can actually beat very good teams on neutral or on the road and go from there.
|
|
|
Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 6, 2019 10:47:24 GMT -5
I'm not saying anything that people (including the people on the tournament committee) don't know, but there's incredible line-drawing problems with how this is all done. I like that they differentiate between home, away and neutral when determining the quadrants, but there's no magic to where they put the lines. I mean, is a home game against NET 31 really worse than an away game against NET 75? Dunno. This is why I really don't like the focus on quadrants and the NET. As you said, is there really a big difference than a home game against NET 30 and 31? Of course not, but they get treated differently for no good reason other than the fact that the line needs to be drawn somewhere. I think the committee is going to use NET/quadrants, but I don't think they are going to strictly adhere to that as the major deciding factor, particularly when teams are pretty closely bunched together. But that's all speculation. They made such a big deal about the new system, that they very well might stick closely to it.
|
|
|
Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 6, 2019 10:48:28 GMT -5
I'm not saying anything that people (including the people on the tournament committee) don't know, but there's incredible line-drawing problems with how this is all done. I like that they differentiate between home, away and neutral when determining the quadrants, but there's no magic to where they put the lines. I mean, is a home game against NET 31 really worse than an away game against NET 75? Dunno. Depending on what happens, our win against Villanova, our home loss to Marquette, and our away loss to Xavier are all in danger of falling out of Q1. Our away win vs. Providence could move in to Q1, which would be huge. In the BET, we may play Creighton, Butler, SH, or St.J -- that game(s) is going to likely be right on the border of Q1 and Q2. And which why it falls could be a difference maker, which is silly. Again, though, all this goes to show that for any team among the final, say, last 5-10 in or last 5-10 out there's a reasonable argument for or against. I agree w/alot of this. Obviously beating DePaul comes first or none of this means a single thing.. and last time I looked we are underdogs tonight according to Vegas. My best amateur analysis is you root for Gtown and against the following.... Temple Seton Hall Alabama TCU St John's Arizona St Clemson Ohio st Indiana These are the teams we are fighting for the last spots if you ask me. Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Utah St punched their tickets last night if they hadn't already. Agree with the names on your list and with the 3 teams punching tickets last night. I would add that any Creighton loss definitely helps solidify our case. I would include Mississippi as a team that can potentially fall off the bubble with a loss at Missouri this weekend and an early SEC tournament exit. Florida plays LSU and Kentucky this week. 2 losses there and an early SEC tournament exit puts them in some jeopardy. Similarly, if NC State crashes with losses to Georgia Tech and/or BC this week and a quick ACC tournament exit, they are in trouble as well. I also would want to see Furman lose early in their conference tournament, just to take them out of contention. Some people mention Texas being on the bubble, but I think our best outcome is that Texas beats TCU this weekend, solidifying Texas for a bid, but knocking TCU out. That's a do-or-die game for TCU, less so for Texas. Finally, any upset loss from Davidson and Dayton will help eliminate them from the discussion.
|
|
GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
|
Post by GUJook97 on Mar 6, 2019 10:56:45 GMT -5
I would 100 percent rather see Furman. Look, we all want gtown to make it, but 99/100 people would rather see a 5/12 Maryland/Furman matchup than a 5/12 Maryland/B6 one. It’s quite literally the best thing about that NCAA tourney and honestly, it’s pretty stupid that the committee hasn’t figured this out yet. Change the matchup to 5/12 Kansa/Furman and I agree but its probably 50/50 if its Maryland/Georgetown.....a regional rivalry on the opening night....ratings explosion.... Well, I was intentionally taking Gtown out of the mix because we are obviously biased. But, while B6 matchups may get people in the seats, I would still argue that it's far more likely people are going to tune in to 5/4 -12/13 seed games that involve Furman, Wofford, UNCG and Belmont than TCU, NC St, Seton Hall and Alabama. To me, it is exactly what makes the tourney the phenomenon it is.
|
|
GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
|
Post by GUJook97 on Mar 6, 2019 11:01:16 GMT -5
Agree. Although, I think Seton Hall can’t be considered that much ahead of us when they lost to DePaul twice. But, point taken. Its hard to complain if we get left out with only 3 more wins. So, we don't know ultimately how the committee will decide and what precise factors they will weigh in assessing and selecting the last ~4 teams from the bubble. Plus, there's also a lot of basketball left to play and a myriad of outcomes remaining. When the season is over and if we are still in the mix, we can all take a stab at making the best arguments to include Georgetown. Still several days and games away. However, for me, the entire fun of this exercise is the look at results on a day-by-day basis to see how the Hoyas are stacking up against their competition on the bubble in real time. As it relates directly to Seton Hall, what I can say this morning is, after reviewing bracketmatrix.com and clicking through to many of the underlying brackets, I am confident that a Seton Hall loss and Hoya win tonight will move us ahead of Seton Hall in the vast majority of the underlying predictive brackets. Seton Hall is routinely on the 12 line and one of the last teams in. Georgetown is routinely among the first 4 teams out grouping. I think a Hoya win and Hall loss will essentially flip flop our positioning. Another huge result, although a long-shot on paper, would be if Notre Dame somehow beats Clemson tonight. Clemson is routinely listed on the 12 line and one of the last teams in. Again, I think a Hoya win and a Clemson loss will essentially flip flop our positioning. Admire the optimism, but I highly doubt beating DePaul is going to move us in to brackets. I think you are thinking too narrowly.
|
|
|
Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 6, 2019 11:05:06 GMT -5
So, we don't know ultimately how the committee will decide and what precise factors they will weigh in assessing and selecting the last ~4 teams from the bubble. Plus, there's also a lot of basketball left to play and a myriad of outcomes remaining. When the season is over and if we are still in the mix, we can all take a stab at making the best arguments to include Georgetown. Still several days and games away. However, for me, the entire fun of this exercise is the look at results on a day-by-day basis to see how the Hoyas are stacking up against their competition on the bubble in real time. As it relates directly to Seton Hall, what I can say this morning is, after reviewing bracketmatrix.com and clicking through to many of the underlying brackets, I am confident that a Seton Hall loss and Hoya win tonight will move us ahead of Seton Hall in the vast majority of the underlying predictive brackets. Seton Hall is routinely on the 12 line and one of the last teams in. Georgetown is routinely among the first 4 teams out grouping. I think a Hoya win and Hall loss will essentially flip flop our positioning. Another huge result, although a long-shot on paper, would be if Notre Dame somehow beats Clemson tonight. Clemson is routinely listed on the 12 line and one of the last teams in. Again, I think a Hoya win and a Clemson loss will essentially flip flop our positioning. Admire the optimism, but I highly doubt beating DePaul is going to move us in to brackets. I think you are thinking too narrowly. Maybe I'm optimistic. But why the hell aren't we all optimistic right now?!?!?! It has been too damn long. It is SOOOO much fun to be part of the discussion. Hop on board the optimism train!!! Just to be clear, it's not just our win at DePaul that moves the needle. It needs to be our win at DePaul coupled with losses from Seton Hall and/or Clemson.
|
|
GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
|
Post by GUJook97 on Mar 6, 2019 11:08:10 GMT -5
Im very optimistic. But, Im not delusional. Beating DePaul is 100 percent about survival. It only helps us by avoiding a catastrophe. That stands for something for sure. But, Seton Hall is in 72 brackets, Clemson is in 73. We are in 5. Hard to believe we flip flop by beating DePaul.
|
|
GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
|
Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 6, 2019 11:28:45 GMT -5
So who did everyone beat?
Stats for teams NET ranked 31-80 numbers include the Hoyas.
18 have 3+ Q1 wins 11 have 9+ Q1/Q2 wins Of those 11, 7 also have 2+ Q3/Q4 losses
So yes by who the Hoyas beat, they do actually compare favorably to the broadest definition of the bubble. You can try to go team by team, and explain or explain away flaws or make excuses for mid-majors. But the quadrant system is in place to do that already. Belmont's "big wins" are Lipscomb twice, UCLA, Murray St, and at Austin Peay. That's a wide net to catch Q1/Q2 wins.
So bottom line, the Hoyas are legitimately in the discussion and deservedly so by the standard of "who did you beat?". Enjoy it for the first time in an entire graduating class.
|
|
|
Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 6, 2019 11:44:02 GMT -5
Im very optimistic. But, Im not delusional. Beating DePaul is 100 percent about survival. It only helps us by avoiding a catastrophe. That stands for something for sure. But, Seton Hall is in 72 brackets, Clemson is in 73. We are in 5. Hard to believe we flip flop by beating DePaul. I think we both agree that it will be really fun to watch bracket impact with a Hoya win coupled with Hall/Clemson losses tonight.
|
|