hoyazeke
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,837
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Post by hoyazeke on Mar 6, 2019 11:46:17 GMT -5
Im very optimistic. But, Im not delusional. Beating DePaul is 100 percent about survival. It only helps us by avoiding a catastrophe. That stands for something for sure. But, Seton Hall is in 72 brackets, Clemson is in 73. We are in 5. Hard to believe we flip flop by beating DePaul. I'm with Jook97 on this one.......but......if those 72/73 have SH and Clemson as one of their last 4 in and Georgetown as a last 4 out....WELL THEN....lol....DELUSION CITY!!!!
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Massholya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,010
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Post by Massholya on Mar 6, 2019 12:23:15 GMT -5
First off let’s win tonight.
Secondly I think it’s important to remind ourselves that everyone is analyzing bracketologies. The committee has not met yet so there is no list at this point that they have generated. That means that we don’t really have to move ahead of people. If this is done the fair way, they will sit down when the games are all played and start with a fresh slate. I find it hard to believe that if we end up 4-1 over our last five and win 1 or 2 games in the BET that we dont have a very strong case. End up 3-2 and 2 wins and I think we still have a very strong case regardless of who the bracketology people say are “ahead” of us right now.
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hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,434
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Post by hoyarooter on Mar 6, 2019 21:26:22 GMT -5
Close this thread. I was right all along. This thread is a joke. I shouldn't have let myself get suckered in the other day.
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
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Post by mdtd on Mar 6, 2019 22:49:41 GMT -5
If there's any hope for an at-large, Marquette is a must win. Then you need to take one in the BET. If Marquette wins, the at-large hopes are dead and it would be a 4 games in 4 days BET which isn't happening. There really aren't any two ways about it. NIT is realistic if we take one in the BET only.
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Post by johnnysnowplow on Mar 6, 2019 22:53:40 GMT -5
Lock it up
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DanMcQ
Moderator
Posts: 32,004
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Post by DanMcQ on Mar 6, 2019 22:53:44 GMT -5
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hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,434
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Post by hoyarooter on Mar 6, 2019 22:55:00 GMT -5
If there's any hope for an at-large, Marquette is a must win. Then you need to take one in the BET. If Marquette wins, the at-large hopes are dead and it would be a 4 games in 4 days BET which isn't happening. There really aren't any two ways about it. NIT is realistic if we take one in the BET only. Beating Marquette (yeah, right) and one win in the BET will have a .000000001% chance of getting us in.
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hoyainla
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Suspended
Posts: 4,719
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Post by hoyainla on Mar 6, 2019 23:01:16 GMT -5
I'm sure some bracketoligist will have us close just to steal some more Hoyas clicks like they have been doing for the past few weeks.
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,364
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 6, 2019 23:02:57 GMT -5
NIT is a 50/50 bet if we finish 7th. Creighton, XU, and Seton Hall will all gets looks ahead of us if they aren’t in the NCAA tourney.
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lda05816
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 606
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Post by lda05816 on Mar 6, 2019 23:07:37 GMT -5
In roughy 2 hours Hoyas went from the bubble to the realistic possibility of the season being over next Wednesday
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HoyaDr
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 616
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Post by HoyaDr on Mar 6, 2019 23:08:38 GMT -5
In roughy 2 hours Hoyas went from the bubble to the realistic possibility of the season being over next Wednesday Rip the bandaid
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
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Post by mdtd on Mar 6, 2019 23:13:13 GMT -5
If there's any hope for an at-large, Marquette is a must win. Then you need to take one in the BET. If Marquette wins, the at-large hopes are dead and it would be a 4 games in 4 days BET which isn't happening. There really aren't any two ways about it. NIT is realistic if we take one in the BET only. Beating Marquette (yeah, right) and one win in the BET will have a .000000001% chance of getting us in. At Marquette would be the best win for almost any bubble team and is an upper q1 win, plus the bubble sucks. But, I can tell you right now that I'd be beyond shocked if we win that game after watching this one. Just going back to what was said earlier which was something along the lines of the Hoyas can make it at 3-2 over the last 5 with a win at Marquette. And I still hold that belief. The metrics would improve from today (before the update of this game) to the Marquette game if that ends up as a win. Plus that many q1 wins would do it IMO. But, I can't see it. Not in the slightest.
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bamahoya11
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,831
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Post by bamahoya11 on Mar 6, 2019 23:19:56 GMT -5
We aren't going to the NCAA tournament unless we win in New York. Frankly, I didn't think we were going to the Dance as an at-large the whole season. Although I've been largely away for a few weeks as I move back to the south, I've been keeping up with the games.
The problem with the league this year is that there aren't really many quality wins to be had. Villanova and Marquette are the only two locks for the Tournament. I suspect St. John's will likely sneak in, and someone else like Seton Hall might have a chance. But a win over SJU or SHU isn't really going to wow the committee.
That being said, I don't think that should take away from some of the good things about this year. We've improved our league wins by three games. An NIT berth would be great for this team, and the extra practice time would benefit our young players. But next year, I hope we schedule a bit better out of league so that our metrics look better if we are in similar shape next season.
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jwp91
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,204
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Post by jwp91 on Mar 6, 2019 23:34:12 GMT -5
I was so excited about the possibility of making the NCAA. After watching that debacle in person, I could not care less.
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McBricks
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
What Rocks.
Posts: 1,173
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Post by McBricks on Mar 7, 2019 0:27:17 GMT -5
I was so excited about the possibility of making the NCAA. After watching that debacle in person, I could not care less. This was our crew's game from the Bay Area to attend this year. Due to last minute circumstances, we couldn't make the trip. If we had been there, I'd be the first to offer you a hug. Damn, this game stank. So incredibly thankful we didn't wind up making the trip and spending the money.
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hoyas315
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,141
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Post by hoyas315 on Mar 7, 2019 12:27:33 GMT -5
GEORGETOWN (18–12, NET: 72, Q1: 3–6, Q2: 6–4, Q3+Q4 LOSSES: 2)
When you’re chasing an at-large bid but still clearly on the outside of the field, you know what’s the last thing you need? A 101–69 drubbing at the hands of DePaul. The Hoyas have an opportunity to wash off that stink by beating Marquette on Saturday, but the damage may have already been done. The middle of the Big East is up for grabs, so we can’t project who Georgetown will play in its first game in the conference tournament, but it’s safe to say the Hoyas need at least two more wins this season to have a shot at an at-large bid.
*Net ranking is now 79
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 7, 2019 12:50:53 GMT -5
If anything, I think NET overstates our strength. Old fashioned RPI, we are 93. KenPom, we are at 93. Sagarin we are 85th. Haslametrics, we are 95. On Battorvik we are 82. On the Yale rankings, we are 81. Generally, to be even remotely competitive to get an NCAA bid on these metrics, you need to be at least around 50. Without winning the BET, it's not happening. (And for those doubters, the KenPom and Sagarin ratings are on the official team sheets the NCAA uses, too.)
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HoyaDr
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 616
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Post by HoyaDr on Mar 7, 2019 12:54:30 GMT -5
GEORGETOWN (18–12, NET: 72, Q1: 3–6, Q2: 6–4, Q3+Q4 LOSSES: 2) When you’re chasing an at-large bid but still clearly on the outside of the field, you know what’s the last thing you need? A 101–69 drubbing at the hands of DePaul. The Hoyas have an opportunity to wash off that stink by beating Marquette on Saturday, but the damage may have already been done. The middle of the Big East is up for grabs, so we can’t project who Georgetown will play in its first game in the conference tournament, but it’s safe to say the Hoyas need at least two more wins this season to have a shot at an at-large bid. *Net ranking is now 79 Need to win 3 games to have a realistic shot. Which isn't happening. Why is this thread not locked yet? EDIT: Sorry I may still be drunk from last night...
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hoyainla
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Suspended
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Post by hoyainla on Mar 7, 2019 12:54:57 GMT -5
Alright which one of you was this
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
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Post by mdtd on Mar 7, 2019 16:04:14 GMT -5
Here's essentially what I think would have to happen for us to make it as an at-large and it involves a lot of luck aka it's beyond unlikely. 1. Beat Marquette, nuff said, that is a must and is very unlikely, but it would be a major boost and would get us right back to that last in/ first out tier. 2. As many BE teams get in the top 50 so BET games can be Q1 games. The more q1 wins this team gets, the more likely NCAA's are. It's how Indiana is still alive and we'd need 2 more to keep hope alive. 3. Illinois improves its net by 20. Need that game to be a q1 road win, need anything we can get. With how they have looked at times, this is possible. 4. Win at least one in the BET, get a good neutral court win. 5. Providence and Xavier need to at the very least need to stay as top 75 teams, so those games are q1 and q2 respectively. They would be very low for both of those, but a q1/q2 win is a solid/good win. It keeps the record there better which is something that the committee will look at. 6. Have one of Campbell/Howard win their conference tournament. That would only help as to win the make the tournament, you have to beat tournament teams. They look at record vs tournament teams and those would only help. This here isn't a must, but it will only help. 7. Nova and Marquette need to stay top 30 in the NET. Both schools are in danger of dropping to below 30 and that would be horrible for the conference. Beating Marquette is impressive, but when the committee uses arbitrary numbers to determine teams over the names, the quadrant matters and a q2 home win against Nova becomes less impressive. 8. Other bubble teams can't get those key wins that will help them. Utah State, UCF and Florida all did this to put them ahead of us for good barring a collapse. That can't happen anymore. If they lose bad games, that will help but they can't win good games. 9. NET needs to rise. Get that to low 60's/high 50's for a chance. With the weak bubble and those key wins, that would make it hard for the committee to keep us out.
I can't fathom a way where all of this happens and luck turns in our favor, especially since this team hasn't been above .500 in the BE after that Butler game and winning 2 would put us in that position. I can't even see a way where most of this happens, but hey weirder things have happened, I think.
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