dense
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Post by dense on Mar 5, 2019 2:53:27 GMT -5
It is such a crazy bubble this season and so much more can happen. Lunardi has Oklahoma and TCU in easily and both will be underdogs in their games this week and could finish 6-12 in the conference. Could the committee honestly take a team that only won 33% of its conference games, regardless of SOS? Metrics be damned, that would be so deflating to have such unsightly teams in the NCAA. I just do not see that happening. So there is so much more to sort out this week. Hoyas need a lot to go in their favor, but also need to win. Win Wednesday and the season is an undeniable success. No I dont think they will which is why I think most of these bracket prediction sites are way off. if we finish 9-9 I think we would need to reach the BE finals. 10-8 I think we would just have to win that 1st game.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 5, 2019 7:54:06 GMT -5
A few things: 1.) Indiana and Creightons wins were killers for us 2.) There’s one bracket where we are in as a 13 seed bringing the average seed down making it look like we fell. No way any at large would ever get a 13 seed. 3.) Some of the included brackets are stale so you’d likely see Clemson, Alabama, or Seton Hall falling a bit more. It can be overwhelming to over analyze all the scenarios and I’m just as guilty as the rest, but I guess we need something to do in between games. The beauty of it is these things tend to work themselves out as the games are played. Back in the next four out as of this morning: www.bracketmatrix.com/Really need to get wins from our good friends at Illinois and Providence as if they can beat Indiana and Creighton respectively coupled with a road win for us at DePaul, I think we move ahead of them. I'm less worried about Seton Hall (Nova and Marquette should both be motivated), St Mary's (they blew their shot against Gonzaga and I don't see them getting revenge in the conference tournament), and Furman (is the committee really going to take Furman over us all things equal). Murray State scares me a little solely because of Ja Morant, who may be the #2 pick in the NBA draft next year. I totally could see the committee going out of their way to showcase a small school with a future star. If we get the results we need this week, I'd have to think going into Saturday's game we are among the first 2-3 teams out at a minimum. What we do from there on out remains to be seen, but it will be fun to watch nonetheless...
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bostonfan
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Post by bostonfan on Mar 5, 2019 8:03:27 GMT -5
TCU and Texas both getting handled by Kansas State and Texas Tech. Good for Hoyas... Those two losses last night do help the Hoyas, and other teams on the bubble. I really don't understand how TCU and Oklahoma are even considered on the bubble. They are both going to end up with a losing record in their conference and while the Big 12 is not bad this year, it is not like they are playing in the ACC. Even Texas, who it seems people are saying are comfortably in the field are confusing to me. They have a .500 record in conference and just barely a winning record overall but they re considered a 10/11 seed!!! Texas could easily end up below 500 in conference and with just a .500 record overall, but everyone still thinks they should make the tournament? In many recent years you needed to be above .500 to even be considered for the NIT, I guess that has changed lately with the NCAA. Bottom line is the Hoyas just need to keep winning and they should be OK. If they finished 10-8 in conference, which would mean a win at Marquette, I would have to believe it would be really tough to keep them out. Even with a loss at Marquette, they should have a good chance if they can win 2 BET games, as long as they take care of DePaul this week.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 5, 2019 8:57:36 GMT -5
I wouldn’t count out Seton Hall. I think they are still ahead of us and beating Nova at home is very possible for them.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 5, 2019 9:08:27 GMT -5
TCU and Texas both getting handled by Kansas State and Texas Tech. Good for Hoyas... Those two losses last night do help the Hoyas, and other teams on the bubble. I really don't understand how TCU and Oklahoma are even considered on the bubble. They are both going to end up with a losing record in their conference and while the Big 12 is not bad this year, it is not like they are playing in the ACC. Even Texas, who it seems people are saying are comfortably in the field are confusing to me. They have a .500 record in conference and just barely a winning record overall but they re considered a 10/11 seed!!! Texas could easily end up below 500 in conference and with just a .500 record overall, but everyone still thinks they should make the tournament? In many recent years you needed to be above .500 to even be considered for the NIT, I guess that has changed lately with the NCAA. Bottom line is the Hoyas just need to keep winning and they should be OK. If they finished 10-8 in conference, which would mean a win at Marquette, I would have to believe it would be really tough to keep them out. Even with a loss at Marquette, they should have a good chance if they can win 2 BET games, as long as they take care of DePaul this week. The B12 is actually #1 in both conference NET and RPI (the latter by a substantial margin). warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conferencenetwarrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conferencerpiAs luck would have it, Texas actually ends up hosting TCU to end the regular season. We probably won't be able to keep both out of the tourney given the strength of the conference's computer numbers, but a Texas win should knock out TCU (barring a long run in the conference tourney).
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 5, 2019 9:12:45 GMT -5
I wouldn’t count out Seton Hall. I think they are still ahead of us and beating Nova at home is very possible for them. That is true. Powell can single handed win any game. I can’t imagine any 10 loss Big East team making it, so one more loss for Creighton and Seton Hall pops their bubble. It’s great to be in the mix and have rooting interests in a whole bunch of games. Makes it a lot of fun being a fan. As mentioned in the other thread, just tonight there are 5 impactful games that are worth watching closely for any devoted Hoya fan.
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bostonfan
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Post by bostonfan on Mar 5, 2019 9:16:48 GMT -5
I wouldn’t count out Seton Hall. I think they are still ahead of us and beating Nova at home is very possible for them. No doubt that a Seton Hall win over Nova puts them right back in the picture, and they are capable of winning that game. It seems the biggest issue for Seton Hall these days is that the conference has scouted them so much now that everyone makes it as hard as possible on Powell to score and the rest of his teammates have not been able to step up to help him. Even when Powell has played well, which he has most of the year, they don't get enough from the rest of the roster to win lately. To some degree Nova has the same issue. Teams make it hard on Booth and Pascal and dare someone else to beat them. When Nova has a third player step up and score, they tend to win. When that doesn't happen they become very beatable. Nova/Seton Hall should be a really hard fought and interesting game.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 5, 2019 9:20:36 GMT -5
Tonight's bubble games:
7th to last team in: Utah St. at Colorado St. (would be a very bad loss that could erase the Nevada win, hopefully this is a trap game for them) 5th to last team in: Minnesota vs. Purdue (Boilers need to keep Minny from getting a third Q1 win) 3rd to last team in: Alabama vs. Auburn (need to keep Alabama at 2 Q1 wins and push them closer to the cut line) 10th team out: Toledo vs. Western Michigan (a bubble popping game and likely they all are the rest of the way, we could also stand to jump them in NET if we get results this week) 11th team out: Xavier at Butler (Butler is completely off the matrix and we need this for BET seeding purposes)
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 5, 2019 9:24:55 GMT -5
Tonight's bubble games: 7th to last team in: Utah St. at Colorado St. (would be a very bad loss that could erase the Nevada win, hopefully this is a trap game for them) 5th to last team in: Minnesota vs. Purdue (Boilers need to keep Minny from getting a third Q1 win) 3rd to last team in: Alabama vs. Auburn (need to keep Alabama at 2 Q1 wins and push them closer to the cut line) 10th team out: Toledo vs. Western Michigan (a bubble popping game and likely they all are the rest of the way, we could also stand to jump them in NET if we get results this week) 11th team out: Xavier at Butler (Butler is completely off the matrix and we need this for BET seeding purposes) I’d add Kansas over Oklahoma and Kentucky over Mississippi to the list of bubble impact games tonight.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 5, 2019 9:37:26 GMT -5
Tonight's bubble games: 7th to last team in: Utah St. at Colorado St. (would be a very bad loss that could erase the Nevada win, hopefully this is a trap game for them) 5th to last team in: Minnesota vs. Purdue (Boilers need to keep Minny from getting a third Q1 win) 3rd to last team in: Alabama vs. Auburn (need to keep Alabama at 2 Q1 wins and push them closer to the cut line) 10th team out: Toledo vs. Western Michigan (a bubble popping game and likely they all are the rest of the way, we could also stand to jump them in NET if we get results this week) 11th team out: Xavier at Butler (Butler is completely off the matrix and we need this for BET seeding purposes) I’d add Kansas over Oklahoma and Kentucky over Mississippi to the list of bubble impact games tonight. Yup, those are two good ones. I think unfortunately Ole Miss is safe since the worst they do is 9-9 SEC and 4 Q1 wins, plus losing to Kentucky won't hurt them. Oklahoma, however, is very much in the same boat as TCU (with one more Q1 win). It would be a tough sell for the committee to explain why they took a 6-12 B12 team over a number of other candidates.
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gunny
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Post by gunny on Mar 5, 2019 12:45:33 GMT -5
In my opinion the current system is broke and the current ranking system is worse than ever.
1. You get teams who have great records and don't beat anyone. An example is St. Mary's. It seems like every year we hear about St. Mary's being on the bubble. How? Not sure how St. Mary's is even a bubble team. Who have they beaten? The best win they have is San Francisco? Georgetown has wins against Villanova, Seton Hall, Butler and St. John's (these teams are all higher in NET rating than San Francisco).
2. You have teams from Power 6 conferences who get chance night after night to beat good teams. Eventually if you are a decent team then you are going to win some of these games. Everyone is talking about Indiana and how they have great wins. This is true, but they also have lost almost as much as they have won. 15-14 is not screaming NCAA tournament to me regardless of who you beat.
3. You have teams who are way over ranked. You mean to tell me that a team that is 12-17 overall and 5-13 in conference play is ranked higher than someone who is 18-11 overall and 8-10 in the same conference. Those two teams are Penn State and Minnesota. Penn State's NET is 48 and Minnesota's is 56. Does that sound right?
There has to be some other measure or something to make better sense of this. I hope there is some common sense/smart people on the committee or else this is going to be a lot of questionable decisions if they just stick with the NET.
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HoyaDr
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Post by HoyaDr on Mar 5, 2019 13:13:09 GMT -5
We are First Four In with USA Today's bracket and First Four Out in every other other bracket I've seen updated today. One of the brackets mentioned that we would already be in if we scheduled a better nonconference. While PE directly controls this, it's hard to blame him since he had no idea how his team would perform this year with 3 frosh giving major minutes. Either way, wow still can't believe we are in this position. Proud of this team!
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 5, 2019 13:40:18 GMT -5
We are First Four In with USA Today's bracket and First Four Out in every other other bracket I've seen updated today. One of the brackets mentioned that we would already be in if we scheduled a better nonconference. While PE directly controls this, it's hard to blame him since he had no idea how his team would perform this year with 3 frosh giving major minutes. Either way, wow still can't believe we are in this position. Proud of this team! We are right there! Given some extremely tough games tonight and tomorrow for several directly competing bubble teams (I expect several losses to help our cause), a Georgetown win tomorrow should put the Hoyas "in" in most every predictive bracket heading into the Saturday game at Marquette.
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seaweed
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Post by seaweed on Mar 5, 2019 14:10:40 GMT -5
That is true. Powell can single handed win any game. I can’t imagine any 10 loss Big East team making it, so one more loss for Creighton and Seton Hall pops their bubble. It’s great to be in the mix and have rooting interests in a whole bunch of games. Makes it a lot of fun being a fan. As mentioned in the other thread, just tonight there are 5 impactful games that are worth watching closely for any devoted Hoya fan. Any game? Seems to me like I recall a game recently that he could not win on his own. Must be my imagination....
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 5, 2019 15:06:02 GMT -5
That is true. Powell can single handed win any game. I can’t imagine any 10 loss Big East team making it, so one more loss for Creighton and Seton Hall pops their bubble. It’s great to be in the mix and have rooting interests in a whole bunch of games. Makes it a lot of fun being a fan. As mentioned in the other thread, just tonight there are 5 impactful games that are worth watching closely for any devoted Hoya fan. Any game? Seems to me like I recall a game recently that he could not win on his own. Must be my imagination.... He can, as in he's capable of winning any game. That doesn't mean he always will win every game. And that's what makes Seton Hall dangerous.
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Post by sleepyjackson21 on Mar 5, 2019 15:34:23 GMT -5
Strus is also capable of winning any game. Makes DePaul dangerous. We have to be very aware where he is at all times.
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Post by jctnhoya4ever on Mar 5, 2019 17:09:40 GMT -5
I agree 100% with gunny post the net system is a big screw up and is simply stupid and don’t make sense. I am really looking forward to seeing the committees teams they put in,and I bet it will be the most mid majors or low majors then ever before.its a joke. Go Hoyas.
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Post by jctnhoya4ever on Mar 5, 2019 17:14:14 GMT -5
For example Wofford is 14 in the net rankings.i know that they have a good team,but you telling me they are a top 15 team. They are at least 40 teams better then they are.i don’t understand it at all.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Mar 5, 2019 18:47:50 GMT -5
For example Wofford is 14 in the net rankings.i know that they have a good team,but you telling me they are a top 15 team. They are at least 40 teams better then they are.i don’t understand it at all. Wofford isn't a top 15 team but, there is no way you can put 40 above them. They are just incredible and Fletcher Magee can hit a three-pointer from anywhere with his back turned away from the hoop.
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Mar 5, 2019 18:48:40 GMT -5
For example Wofford is 14 in the net rankings.i know that they have a good team,but you telling me they are a top 15 team. They are at least 40 teams better then they are.i don’t understand it at all. The NET rankings are messed up. No question about that. But Wofford is a great team. Let’s not pretend like the fact that they’re a smaller team automatically means they aren’t good/worthy. If a lot of these mid majors had the ability to play all home nonconference games and were given decent seeds in the tournament (unlike a team like NCSU that sucks but will somehow get a 9 or 10), then we’d see a lot of “mid majors” have much better success. The system is stacked against them, but they can be great teams.
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