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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 4, 2019 14:08:15 GMT -5
Allow me to ask the sacrilegious question: Would we be better off NOT making the NCAAs and going to the NIT instead? Would be a huge disappointment for Jessie, who really wants to dance, and would represent a kind of a let down from our ceiling, but there are advantages - getting more home games at a time when the team is just starting to gain traction with local fans again, greater likelihood of advancement and possibly even making the semis/finals at MSG, motivation for the frosh class to improve, etc. I am agnostic on this question myself, just wondering what others think about it. My own opinion is that an NCAAT bid always trumps an NIT bid. 100% of the time. No exceptions. In the bigger picture, either would be a good result in year 2 of the regime and would evidence real growth. (I think people are deluding themselves if they think that anyone except the most enthusiastic fans -- that is, people who don't need any additional motivation to support the team -- would care about how the team does in the NIT.)
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 4, 2019 15:17:00 GMT -5
My opinion in that making the NCAAs is always the preferred result.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 4, 2019 15:23:43 GMT -5
Bracket Matrix is showing that Hoyas actually fell this weekend. Somewhat surprising, but we've fallen off the First 4 Out/Next 4 Out lines. I think 10-8 is required now plus a first round BET win. I think that probably gets us in, especially if that BET win is against another tournament/bubble team (e.g., SJU, Creighton, SH, Xavier) Looking at all the teams above us, 9-9 probably requires a BET title. And there are always a few conference tournament surprises also, which knocks off a few more from the bubble. www.bracketmatrix.com/
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,364
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 4, 2019 16:25:29 GMT -5
Bracket Matrix is showing that Hoyas actually fell this weekend. Somewhat surprising, but we've fallen off the First 4 Out/Next 4 Out lines. I think 10-8 is required now plus a first round BET win. I think that probably gets us in, especially if that BET win is against another tournament/bubble team (e.g., SJU, Creighton, SH, Xavier) Looking at all the teams above us, 9-9 probably requires a BET title. And there are always a few conference tournament surprises also, which knocks off a few more from the bubble. www.bracketmatrix.com/A few things: 1.) Indiana and Creightons wins were killers for us 2.) There’s one bracket where we are in as a 13 seed bringing the average seed down making it look like we fell. No way any at large would ever get a 13 seed. 3.) Some of the included brackets are stale so you’d likely see Clemson, Alabama, or Seton Hall falling a bit more. It can be overwhelming to over analyze all the sevens Rios and I’m just as guilty as the rest, but I guess we need something to do in between games. The beauty of it is these things tend to work themselves out as the games are played.
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Post by professorhoya on Mar 4, 2019 16:48:20 GMT -5
All you need is 3 wins. Auto bid. It's all about how you finish. To win the NCAA you are going to need an additional 6 wins. Kemba Walker's UConn team had to win the BET and went on to win the whole thing.. Shaka Smart was about to get fired and lose his team, the VCU's season was tanking when he burned a piece of paper in the trashcan and they won their conference tournament and then won a bunch of games including the play in to get to the Final Four. Season's that look lost can sometimes turn on a dime. VCU didn't win the caa tourney. They were a controversial at large selection that had to play in the first four. They then went on to ruin my trip to Chicago.Time sure does fly. At the time you were a Hoyas Super Fan who they wouldn't even let in through the front door, going on your own dime and time and now you are a Hoyas Super Reporter who has met some of the top guys in the game. Who could have imagined this happening back then. Hard Work!
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Post by professorhoya on Mar 4, 2019 16:55:48 GMT -5
From a conspiracy point of view, the NCAA wants us to get in this year. Unlike in past years when we had an unathletic slow motion low scoring offense, this year we have a high scoring, uptempo attractive style. And I'm sure the NCAA would like a clip of Coach Ewing in one Shining Moment even if we do get knocked out in the first round. Plus the New York Knicks/Number 33 fan base that will go along with Coach Ewing for a ride will increase ratings.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 4, 2019 17:16:56 GMT -5
Bracket Matrix is showing that Hoyas actually fell this weekend. Somewhat surprising, but we've fallen off the First 4 Out/Next 4 Out lines. I think 10-8 is required now plus a first round BET win. I think that probably gets us in, especially if that BET win is against another tournament/bubble team (e.g., SJU, Creighton, SH, Xavier) Looking at all the teams above us, 9-9 probably requires a BET title. And there are always a few conference tournament surprises also, which knocks off a few more from the bubble. www.bracketmatrix.com/A few things: 1.) Indiana and Creightons wins were killers for us 2.) There’s one bracket where we are in as a 13 seed bringing the average seed down making it look like we fell. No way any at large would ever get a 13 seed. 3.) Some of the included brackets are stale so you’d likely see Clemson, Alabama, or Seton Hall falling a bit more. It can be overwhelming to over analyze all the sevens Rios and I’m just as guilty as the rest, but I guess we need something to do in between games. The beauty of it is these things tend to work themselves out as the games are played. Indiana (Illinois and Rutgers) and Creighton (Providence and DePaul) could very easily both drop a game this week. Remember, these teams are on the bubble and have not strung wins together. They can look good, and then they lose (just like us). If they both drop one, and we get to 10-8, we get in over both (assuming conference tourney results are neutral).
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NCHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,927
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 4, 2019 17:51:32 GMT -5
It is such a crazy bubble this season and so much more can happen. Lunardi has Oklahoma and TCU in easily and both will be underdogs in their games this week and could finish 6-12 in the conference. Could the committee honestly take a team that only won 33% of its conference games, regardless of SOS? Metrics be damned, that would be so deflating to have such unsightly teams in the NCAA. I just do not see that happening.
So there is so much more to sort out this week. Hoyas need a lot to go in their favor, but also need to win. Win Wednesday and the season is an undeniable success.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 4, 2019 18:37:32 GMT -5
It is such a crazy bubble this season and so much more can happen. Lunardi has Oklahoma and TCU in easily and both will be underdogs in their games this week and could finish 6-12 in the conference. Could the committee honestly take a team that only won 33% of its conference games, regardless of SOS? Metrics be damned, that would be so deflating to have such unsightly teams in the NCAA. I just do not see that happening. So there is so much more to sort out this week. Hoyas need a lot to go in their favor, but also need to win. Win Wednesday and the season is an undeniable success. Everyone is apparently going to be shocked when TCU doesn't make it. Their inclusion is baffling with only two Iowa State wins in q1 and a 3-7 mark in their last 10 to go along with that 6-10 conference mark. If their NET were 20, at least that's an argument. But its hanging around 50. Why are they special compared to Creighton for example? Really strange how sold everyone is on that team being in.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 4, 2019 18:39:48 GMT -5
Well let’s hope they lose tonight.
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
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Post by mdtd on Mar 4, 2019 18:44:25 GMT -5
Bracket Matrix is showing that Hoyas actually fell this weekend. Somewhat surprising, but we've fallen off the First 4 Out/Next 4 Out lines. I think 10-8 is required now plus a first round BET win. I think that probably gets us in, especially if that BET win is against another tournament/bubble team (e.g., SJU, Creighton, SH, Xavier) Looking at all the teams above us, 9-9 probably requires a BET title. And there are always a few conference tournament surprises also, which knocks off a few more from the bubble. www.bracketmatrix.com/A few things: 1.) Indiana and Creightons wins were killers for us 2.) There’s one bracket where we are in as a 13 seed bringing the average seed down making it look like we fell. No way any at large would ever get a 13 seed. 3.) Some of the included brackets are stale so you’d likely see Clemson, Alabama, or Seton Hall falling a bit more. It can be overwhelming to over analyze all the sevens Rios and I’m just as guilty as the rest, but I guess we need something to do in between games. The beauty of it is these things tend to work themselves out as the games are played. The bracket that had listed us at 13 has us listed as "George Town." Doesn't seem like a credible source to me. Take the decrease as nothing serious, we're still rising in the ranks. Some teams ahead of us like Toledo, Murray State and UNCG could just be there as predictions for the auto bids. Plus, teams ahead of us in one bracket aren't ahead of us in the long run.
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KHoyaNYC
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,901
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Mar 4, 2019 18:45:23 GMT -5
I expect KSU to beat TCU tonight. Handily. Hope I didn’t jinx it.
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hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,434
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Post by hoyarooter on Mar 4, 2019 19:34:43 GMT -5
OK, I vowed to stay away from this thread because I viewed it as a joke. I still view us as a real longshot. Like that filly that won the Herecomesthebride Stakes at Gulfstream Saturday while the 1/5 shot Breeders Cup winner from last year ran fourth. But then I saw a projection today that actually had us as a 12th seed, along with Seton Hall. I still don't see that. Lunardi having us in the second four out seems more realistic. If we win both games this week (unlikely) and one BET game, I think we have a pretty good shot. If we win one game this week and make it to the BET finals, I think we have a pretty good shot. If we lose two games this week, we have to win the BET (obviously).
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Post by JohnnyJones on Mar 4, 2019 19:53:04 GMT -5
OK, I vowed to stay away from this thread because I viewed it as a joke. I still view us as a real longshot. Like that filly that won the Herecomesthebride Stakes at Gulfstream Saturday while the 1/5 shot Breeders Cup winner from last year ran fourth. But then I saw a projection today that actually had us as a 12th seed, along with Seton Hall. I still don't see that. Lunardi having us in the second four out seems more realistic. If we win both games this week (unlikely) and one BET game, I think we have a pretty good shot. If we win one game this week and make it to the BET finals, I think we have a pretty good shot. If we lose two games this week, we have to win the BET (obviously). As the great dTRAIN said moments after the SH game Saturday, "we need to win 3 more games" I agree with you and him.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 4, 2019 20:37:01 GMT -5
Projected 11/12 seed teams like Alabama, Temple, Arizona State, Minnesota, St. John’s, TCU, Seton Hall, Texas, etc. all have 1-2 tough games this week.
If we win 2 this week, we will catch up to many of these teams.
But our 2 games are tough too. It’s the time of year when you have to win.
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kettlehill
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,157
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Post by kettlehill on Mar 4, 2019 21:12:20 GMT -5
So the narrative is that the BE sucks this year. This narrative was established two months ago and seems to be surviving. So much so that ( as per) the NET Penn St. is better than all the teams in the BE except for MU and Nova. This is nonsense, and there are other example such as this. The Narrative says that because Nova lost three in a row and Marquette 2 in a row, the BIg East REALLY sucks. The Narrative doesn’t suggest that X and GU and CU and SH and even DePaul might be improving? Nope, Penn State could handle us all...
Let’s hope that the “committee” uses some common sense.
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kettlehill
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,157
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Post by kettlehill on Mar 4, 2019 21:44:00 GMT -5
Forgot to mention, Penn St is 12-17 and 5 -11 in the vaunted Big Ten including losses in their first 8 conference games. WTF?
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 4, 2019 22:11:26 GMT -5
TCU and Texas both getting handled by Kansas State and Texas Tech.
Good for Hoyas...
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Post by RockawayHoya on Mar 4, 2019 23:17:20 GMT -5
TCU and Texas both getting handled by Kansas State and Texas Tech. Good for Hoyas... And both go on to lose by large margins. That bubble is getting mighty crowded.
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njhoya78
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 7,804
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Post by njhoya78 on Mar 4, 2019 23:23:10 GMT -5
I expect KSU to beat TCU tonight. Handily. Hope I didn’t jinx it. You didn't.
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