bostonfan
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Post by bostonfan on Mar 4, 2019 11:35:00 GMT -5
If you think back to past years, I think the one lesson is that it's impossible to make huge jumps (or suffer huge drops) at this point in the season. The only way I feel completely safe is winning out until the BET final. Even 9-9 and then getting to the BET final feels like we may be a "last team with a bye" type of team going into that game and then maybe dropping a bit down the curve with a BET final loss and sweating things out on Sunday. I'm a proponent of better scheduling, but before we all gripe about "if we improved the schedule a bit we'd be in much better shape now," let's all remember how close many of those OOC games were against middling and poor teams. It's just as likely that if we had played marginally better teams early in the season, we'd be sitting on another "bad" loss or two and in even worse relative shape. I agree that scheduling a stronger OOC schedule helps at this point, but I don't see the point of doing that if the staff is not confident the team is going to be ready to compete against a tougher schedule. They barely beat some of those "cupcake" schools early in the year ( and lost 2 games they shouldn't have) and I would think they might be closer to a losing record if they had scheduled a much tougher schedule. Moving forward I think the staff will schedule better OOC games (the schedule this year was much better than the first year and it sounds like they are already discussing some better games for next year with Memphis and a few tournaments) but I think they knew they were going to have to depend on the freshman a lot this season and probably were not sure they were going to be ready early this year. I hope the schedule does not keep them out of the NCAA's, but it was a strategic decision the staff made and they know much more about how ready the team is than anyone else.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 4, 2019 11:43:40 GMT -5
If you think back to past years, I think the one lesson is that it's impossible to make huge jumps (or suffer huge drops) at this point in the season. The only way I feel completely safe is winning out until the BET final. Even 9-9 and then getting to the BET final feels like we may be a "last team with a bye" type of team going into that game and then maybe dropping a bit down the curve with a BET final loss and sweating things out on Sunday. I'm a proponent of better scheduling, but before we all gripe about "if we improved the schedule a bit we'd be in much better shape now," let's all remember how close many of those OOC games were against middling and poor teams. It's just as likely that if we had played marginally better teams early in the season, we'd be sitting on another "bad" loss or two and in even worse relative shape. Yes. This is also why I’m not going to he too upset about us not making it. We scheduled pretty poorly. It is what it is.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 4, 2019 11:47:40 GMT -5
Let's be honest, the schedule this year was good enough if you beat any combo of either LMU, SMU or Cuse. Better teams on the schedule probably means at least another loss. NCAA teams don't lose to LMU on a neutral court or SMU on our homecourt. Even with hindsight, I honestly have no issues with our schedule this season. Beating those "cupcake" teams by small margins should not matter, but in this new world of efficiency and scoring margin having extra importance it ended up hurting us. With a more experienced team next Nov/Dec, I do not expect that issue to repeat.
All in all, I am happy to be having this conversation going in to the last week of the regular season. I hope the boys can make it even more interesting, must take care of Wednesday.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 4, 2019 11:54:01 GMT -5
I don’t have as much of an issue with the schedule for the team’s growth, but it definitely mattered. It’s a big reason why an 8-8 BE team basically isn’t in the tourney.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Mar 4, 2019 12:20:37 GMT -5
I think those teams are better than meh B6 teams. Maybe, maybe not. Certainly some years a few smaller teams get shafted. But other years I've seen touted darlings get in and get stomped, so, depends. I'd rather have the mix weighted to B6, and give those smaller conference champs their chance (along with other that proved themselves in the non conference slate). I understand how you feel. Just see it a different way. How can you say you don't want to see Furman play in one post but then in the next say those that proved themselves in non conference play should get their chance. Was winning at Nova and Loyola-Ill not enough?
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Mar 4, 2019 12:33:41 GMT -5
I don’t have as much of an issue with the schedule for the team’s growth, but it definitely mattered. It’s a big reason why an 8-8 BE team basically isn’t in the tourney. I totally agree that given the results this was the right non-conference schedule for this team. And I agree that in the future the schedule should be tougher as the team gets better. But I don't think the schedule is what is keeping the team out at the moment from a numbers perspective. Below are the 7 BE teams around the bubble: Creighton NET 50, 15-13 overall, 7-9 conference, NC SOS 32 Butler NET 59, 15-14 overall, 6-10 conference, NC SOS 70 St. John's NET 61, 20-10 overall, 8-9 conference, NC SOS 191 Seton Hall NET 63, 16-12 overall, 7-9 conference, NC SOS 98 Xavier NET 70, 16-13 overall, 8-8 conference, NC SOS 145 Georgetown NET 72, 18-11 overall, 8-8 conference, NC SOS 245 Providence NET 78, 16-13 overall, 6-10 conference, NC SOS 171 Yes, if Georgetown had a better NC SOS they would be 10-20 spots higher depending on their record and the NC SOS, but they would likely still be on the bubble at this point. NC SOS is still important, I don't want that to be lost. And most of the top NET teams have solid NC SOS numbers. But it certainly appears that the NET rankings devalue NC SOS compared to RPI. As was pointed out earlier, Georgetown would be RPI 87 right now (mostly because of the NC SOS ranking). Another similar case is North Carolina State which would be RPI 93 right now. NC State NET 31, 20-9 overall, 8-8 conference, NC SOS 353 If Georgetown had replaced LMU and SMU with two more wins against UMES, then Georgetown and NC State would have a very similar profile, with Georgetown still having a better NC SOS. This shows that winning and efficiency/margin of victory can compensate for low NC SOS rankings. Again, NC SOS is still important and I still want Georgetown to schedule tougher in the future. But there certainly seems to be a path to an NCAA tournament at-large bid that doesn't rely on a strong NC SOS now with the NET rankings.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 4, 2019 12:53:49 GMT -5
I think you are making my point 10-20 spots is a huge deal. It means if we beat DePaul and Marquette, we would certainly be in the tourney. (I think people have convinced me we wouldnt right now. We didnt really move after beating SH) Look at Creighton. They are 7-9, and quite honestly, if they win out, even with easier games, they are ahead of us despite losing more games and only being 9-9. There's a lot of what if's of course, but I would argue our schedule is a bigger reason we are on the outside than losing to LMU or SMU. Those are not really that bad losses. We've lost to worse teams and made the tourney.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Mar 4, 2019 13:11:03 GMT -5
I think you are making my point 10-20 spots is a huge deal. It means if we beat DePaul and Marquette, we would certainly be in the tourney. (I think people have convinced me we wouldnt right now. We didnt really move after beating SH) Look at Creighton. They are 7-9, and quite honestly, if they win out, even with easier games, they are ahead of us despite losing more games and only being 9-9. There's a lot of what if's of course, but I would argue our schedule is a bigger reason we are on the outside than losing to LMU or SMU. Those are not really that bad losses. We've lost to worse teams and made the tourney. My point was that 10-20 NET spots would still have us on the bubble. Sure, we might be a few spots higher on people's lists, but NC SOS isn't as much of a driving factor as it was with RPI. And if you think the schedule is a bigger reason we are on the outside than losing to LMU or SMU, then you ignored my comparison to NC State. And yes, we lost to worse teams in the past, but that was with RPI.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 4, 2019 13:19:11 GMT -5
I think you are making my point 10-20 spots is a huge deal. It means if we beat DePaul and Marquette, we would certainly be in the tourney. (I think people have convinced me we wouldnt right now. We didnt really move after beating SH) Look at Creighton. They are 7-9, and quite honestly, if they win out, even with easier games, they are ahead of us despite losing more games and only being 9-9. There's a lot of what if's of course, but I would argue our schedule is a bigger reason we are on the outside than losing to LMU or SMU. Those are not really that bad losses. We've lost to worse teams and made the tourney. My point was that 10-20 NET spots would still have us on the bubble. Sure, we might be a few spots higher on people's lists, but NC SOS isn't as much of a driving factor as it was with RPI. And if you think the schedule is a bigger reason we are on the outside than losing to LMU or SMU, then you ignored my comparison to NC State. And yes, we lost to worse teams in the past, but that was with RPI. For one, I dont think you can say what they are going to do with NET. I still think NC SOS will make it a big deal; it always has. But, also, being higher on the list is exactly what we are all arguing. You are saying NET matters, but then you are saying Creighton being 20 spots ahead of us doesnt? I think it matters a lot. When all is said and done, it's going to be very hard to put us above Creighton or even Seton Hall, if they win 1 more game against Nova/Marquette. (That's why I was disappointed Creighton beat Marquette.)
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Mar 4, 2019 13:32:11 GMT -5
I hope the schedule does not keep them out of the NCAA's, but it was a strategic decision the staff made and they know much more about how ready the team is than anyone else. Georgetown has to stop using this as an excuse to schedule teams like Howard (#300), Central Connecticut (#306) and Maryland Eastern Shore (#352). Replace those with three reasonable top 160 games at home (for example, Colgate, URI, and Stony Brook) and the NET wouldn't be to be a reason to leave them out.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 4, 2019 13:38:00 GMT -5
I actually think the game we’d like back the most is the Marquette game. We were very fortunate to not face Howard, were up I believe 8 in the second half, and then the Hausers and their grandparents took over. And then some freshman lapses by Akinjo at the end.
NET doesn’t know we would have beaten them sans Howard. That woulda been another Q1 win.
As someone said earlier, you can’t play the “if only” game because we’ve had a share of lucky games (see UCF and PC). That bro t said I think this game gets underrated as far as how much it impacts our resume and how winnable it was.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 4, 2019 13:39:12 GMT -5
I actually think the game we’d like back the most is the Narquette game. We were very fortunate to not face Howard, were up I believe 8 in the second half, and then the Hausers and their grandparents took over. And then some freshman lapses by Akinjo at the end. NET doesn’t know we would have beaten them sans Howard. That woulda been another Q1 win. As someone said earlier, you can’t play the “if only” game because we’ve had a share of lucky games (see UCF and PC). That bro t said I think this game gets underrated as far as how much it impacts our resume and how winnable it was. Yes, I said that earlier and I agree. That was a huge game to not pick up.
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seaweed
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Post by seaweed on Mar 4, 2019 13:45:33 GMT -5
Allow me to ask the sacrilegious question: Would we be better off NOT making the NCAAs and going to the NIT instead? Would be a huge disappointment for Jessie, who really wants to dance, and would represent a kind of a let down from our ceiling, but there are advantages - getting more home games at a time when the team is just starting to gain traction with local fans again, greater likelihood of advancement and possibly even making the semis/finals at MSG, motivation for the frosh class to improve, etc. I am agnostic on this question myself, just wondering what others think about it.
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 4, 2019 13:48:34 GMT -5
Allow me to ask the sacrilegious question: Would we be better off NOT making the NCAAs and going to the NIT instead? Would be a huge disappointment for Jessie, who really wants to dance, and would represent a kind of a let down from our ceiling, but there are advantages - getting more home games at a time when the team is just starting to gain traction with local fans again, greater likelihood of advancement and possibly even making the semis/finals at MSG, motivation for the frosh class to improve, etc. I am agnostic on this question myself, just wondering what others think about it. Honestly, I'd be very happy with either. I didn't expect any postseason this year, even an NIT bid seemed like a lot to ask. So I don't see much downside to the next few weeks. If we get a win at DePaul and one in NYC, it's hard not to call this season a very large step forward. NCAA would simply be gravy.
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Post by trillesthoya on Mar 4, 2019 13:49:00 GMT -5
Allow me to ask the sacrilegious question: Would we be better off NOT making the NCAAs and going to the NIT instead? Would be a huge disappointment for Jessie, who really wants to dance, and would represent a kind of a let down from our ceiling, but there are advantages - getting more home games at a time when the team is just starting to gain traction with local fans again, greater likelihood of advancement and possibly even making the semis/finals at MSG, motivation for the frosh class to improve, etc. I am agnostic on this question myself, just wondering what others think about it. It's been asked in this thread before I think. No question that the NCAAT is the far better option. Making the tournament is the most important measurement of a program's healthy and vitality in college basketball, and the payoff in terms of media attention, recruiting, and momentum going into the next season far outweighs any marginal benefit from a couple more home games.
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HoyaChris
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 4, 2019 13:52:11 GMT -5
Allow me to ask the sacrilegious question: Would we be better off NOT making the NCAAs and going to the NIT instead? Would be a huge disappointment for Jessie, who really wants to dance, and would represent a kind of a let down from our ceiling, but there are advantages - getting more home games at a time when the team is just starting to gain traction with local fans again, greater likelihood of advancement and possibly even making the semis/finals at MSG, motivation for the frosh class to improve, etc. I am agnostic on this question myself, just wondering what others think about it. I think our frosh will develop just fine with or without an NIT. The NCAA is all about being relevant. I vote for relevant. And who knows. At our best we just might win a game or two.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 4, 2019 13:53:17 GMT -5
Allow me to ask the sacrilegious question: Would we be better off NOT making the NCAAs and going to the NIT instead? Would be a huge disappointment for Jessie, who really wants to dance, and would represent a kind of a let down from our ceiling, but there are advantages - getting more home games at a time when the team is just starting to gain traction with local fans again, greater likelihood of advancement and possibly even making the semis/finals at MSG, motivation for the frosh class to improve, etc. I am agnostic on this question myself, just wondering what others think about it. Honestly, I'd be very happy with either. I didn't expect any postseason this year, even an NIT bid seemed like a lot to ask. So I don't see much downside to the next few weeks. If we get a win at DePaul and one in NYC, it's hard not to call this season a very large step forward. NCAA would simply be gravy. I would prefer NCAAT, but put me in the camp of folks that wouldn't be too upset with either. I didnt expect a NCAAT bid at all.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 4, 2019 13:57:33 GMT -5
I agree that either NIT or NCAA are good results for this team, but I think NCAA is always better because you get a lot more attention, Georgetown would get good publicity and momentum (Ewing makes NCAA tournament in second year!), and that would directly help recruiting. I think NIT helps in similar ways, too, it's just the NCAA has a much greater impact, so NCAA. Plus, even if you barely get into the tournament, you'll almost always have a winnable game in the first round, and if you get lucky, you could even get to the second weekend.
The only possible exception would be playing in the play-in game in Dayton and losing. I'd probably still prefer the NCAA bid, ultimately, but one could argue that success in the NIT would be better than losing in the play-in game. Still, winning in the play-in game would be phenomenal and you only have that option if you make it, so NCAA all the way.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Mar 4, 2019 14:02:03 GMT -5
I hope the schedule does not keep them out of the NCAA's, but it was a strategic decision the staff made and they know much more about how ready the team is than anyone else. Georgetown has to stop using this as an excuse to schedule teams like Howard (#300), Central Connecticut (#306) and Maryland Eastern Shore (#352). Replace those with three reasonable top 160 games at home (for example, Colgate, URI, and Stony Brook) and the NET wouldn't be to be a reason to leave them out. I absolutely agree with you in principle (and in virtually every year). But as I said before, I think our specific results this year may be evidence of the rare exception. Sure, if we didn't play those three teams and played the three you named AND we still won all three, we'd be in significantly better shape right now. But neither MD-ES nor CCSU were blowouts by any stretch of the imagination. And you could say the same about most of our OOC slate. There's no reason to conclude we would have beaten all three of your hypothetical replacements. If they go 2-1 at home against those three, I'm not sure there's any meaningful difference in their profile one way or another. If they go 1-2, their profile is certainly worse. None of us knows whether the "strategic" decision to schedule poorly worked out in the sense that the team was more likely to play better as the year went on as opposed to if we had struggled against a more aggressive schedule. It's not even worth really debating.
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SDHoya
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Post by SDHoya on Mar 4, 2019 14:02:21 GMT -5
I agree that either NIT or NCAA are good results for this team, but I think NCAA is always better because you get a lot more attention, Georgetown would get good publicity and momentum (Ewing makes NCAA tournament in second year!), and that would directly help recruiting. I think NIT helps in similar ways, too, it's just the NCAA has a much greater impact, so NCAA. The only possible exception would be playing in the play-in game in Dayton and losing. I'd probably still prefer the NCAA bid, ultimately, but one could argue that success in the NIT would be better than losing in the play-in game. Still, winning in the play-in game would be phenomenal and you only have that option if you make it, so NCAA all the way. Not quite sure who would argue that, but I suppose theoretically such an argument could be made. Hoyas just need to keep winning and things will work out how they are going to work out. They have already met/exceeded most expectations for the season, and so are really just playing with house money in March. Next season is gonna be fun.
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