HoyaDr
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 616
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Post by HoyaDr on Mar 3, 2019 12:30:38 GMT -5
Let's start thinking positively about the fact that we are right on the bubble. Sure we lost to LMU and SMU in the preseason. We didn't look great in the preseason but now we are playing much better. Sure we still have our lapses but much less so than in those preseason games. Let's enjoy where we are now because I know before the season, the vast majority of us could not have imagined the team being in this position in March. We are actually seeing growth in team chemistry and effort in Feb/March instead of staying stagnant or regressing in the past few years.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 3, 2019 12:41:57 GMT -5
Yep. We are firmly on the bubble and that’s no different than any team. A loss will knock us back, a win will help. Not sure why it’s worth arguing that we are worse off than any other bubble team. You could have made that case before yesterday, but don’t think so anymore.
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,364
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 3, 2019 12:47:46 GMT -5
The only real argument this team has is if we finish solo third in the BE at 10-8 and make the semis. And even that is not a lock to be in. You have to count on a few bid stealers too. Yesterday was a bad day for us as a bubble team. Beating Seton Hall helped us a lot more in conference than anything else. Indiana, UCF, and Utah St all had Top 15 wins. I don’t think ESPN’s analysis is off at all. This team has to win four games to get in basically. 22-12 and solo 3rd in the BE. The computer rankings are not going to help the cause, and our Q3 losses are massive anchors (more so than I would have thought) and tight games over bad teams made our bed. You keep stomping on the team’s dream. We all know it’s an uphill battle, enjoy the ride a little bit! I know. You’re right. I guess I’m just trying to avoid being let down two Sunday’s from now.
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MEGAFAN
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 649
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Post by MEGAFAN on Mar 3, 2019 12:49:10 GMT -5
Nobody knows for sure, and our at-large chances are obviously impacted by how other bubble teams perform over the next ~2 weeks.
However, I’m going to stick with what I’ve been saying for the past month, which seems to be increasingly in sync with what top prognosticators are saying, namely that:
1. If we finish 10-8 in the BE, and win our opening BET game, making us 21-12, we’re a lock for an at-large bid.
2. If we finish 9-9 in the BE, and make a run to the BET finals, we’ll be squarely on the bubble, but in my estimation, likely to get a bid. In other words, don’t tell me if we get to Saturday night and lose in an epic BET final at MSG,, we won’t have the nation’s attention, and have a very strong shot at getting an at-large bid. We would be 21-13.
So I guess I’m saying we have a VERY high chance of getting an at-large bid if we get to 21 wins, one way or another. Given our NET ranking at OOC schedule, 20 wins will be tough. But not impossible, depending upon how we get there. And I don’t think anyone in their right mind can imagine us not making it with 22 wins.
Again, the magic number is 21!
Now, let’s get a W at DePaul. It won’t be easy. But if there’s ever a time to start putting 3+ games winning streak together, it’s in March!!!
#InPatWeTrust #Mackinjo #WeAreGeorgetown #HoyaSaxa
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 3, 2019 13:01:03 GMT -5
I’m in line with this thinking. Closing out 2-0 this week puts us in a very compelling position heading into the BET.
A win at Marquette is a huge deal. Bigger, statistically, than winning a neutral court BET semis game.
Anyway, it doesn’t mean much if we lay an egg on Wednesday. Must beat DePaul.
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
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Post by mdtd on Mar 3, 2019 15:17:07 GMT -5
Immediately, there are some major flaws with his bubble. Remember that Lunardi is the 68th ranked bracketeer in bracketmatrix. Palm is worse though, so I'm not going to use his positioning to improve my point. But, St.Mary's bubble dreams are long gone with their loss to Gonzaga, they haven't beaten anyone and have no chance and if they make the tournament as an at-large the committee will have failed at their jobs. St. Mary's only q1 win is at New Mexico State a team who isn't going to be looked at as a good win as they still very well could miss the tournament. St. Mary's has 3 q3 losses to our two and a worse q2 record. They aren't closer to the bubble with how the committee has said they will use the NET rating which mainly is on seeing who you beat and not on how good you are. Murray State is only there for the narrative. They are a good team but don't have a good resume, they just have a good PG in Ja Morant who is just amazing. Their best win is at Austin Peay, and that just doesn't bode well for the tourney. They'd have to beat Belmont on the neutral floor to have any chance at making the tournament but that would be in the final. Belmont however, has a good resume and is a team that I think is very capable of getting an at-large bid if they lose in the final to a team like Murray State. Belmont has 2q1 wins, 3q2 wins and are above .500 in those games. They are a team that I am rooting for in the OVC otherwise, that bid is stolen. Dayton lost to URI and that ended their at-large hopes essentially. depending on how the A-10 tournament shapes out, they could get lucky but, I just don't see it. The team I'm watching is Texas. They would be the first team with 16 losses to get in if they lose their next two. Texas-TCU could be a game where one makes the tourney and the other doesn't. Need some luck, unless we get another great win in either the BET or at Marquette.
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
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Post by mdtd on Mar 3, 2019 15:24:53 GMT -5
Not a ton of games today but plenty for Hoya fans to root for. In the category of "Please help that dreadful OOC Schedule" - we are rooting for South Fla, SMU, and Illinois. South Florida (+4) at UConn Wichita St at SMU (-4) Northwestern at Illinois (-6) In the category of "Big East Action" - we are rooting for Marquette and I assume Bracket Guru's DePaul (I only say that because not sure what a St Johns loss does to that quality win but I assume we rather them lose for bubble purposes?) Creighton at Marquette (-8) St Johns at DePaul (-1) In the category of "Miracles Happen" we are rooting for Notre Dame and Tulane. ND (+10) at Louisville Tulane (+18) at Temple In the category of "Just lose and help our chances" - we are rooting for Oregon St. Arizona St an 11 seed according to Bracket Matrix right now. Arizona St at Oregon St (-4) Go Hoyas! So far, Depaul has won, but that's about all that has gone right. USF lost to UCONN late, SMU is getting beaten badly, Notre Dame lost, Tulane has no hope as they are truly terrible and Creighton is off to a good start, albeit it is very early in that one. Oregon State could be crucial for our bubble hopes, to put ASU to 10-7 with their regular season ending at rival Arizona. 10-8 in that conference is bad, especially with losses to Utah, Vandy, Princeton, Stanford, Washington State and being pummeled by Oregon.
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drquigley
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,397
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Post by drquigley on Mar 3, 2019 15:31:41 GMT -5
It's too much work doing all this bubble watching. Simple, win our next two and we're in.
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bigsaxa
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 194
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Post by bigsaxa on Mar 3, 2019 15:44:33 GMT -5
What we need to do is blow out DePaul, beat Marquette at home, and make a run to atleast the semis in the BET. That’s the only way to guarantee a bid.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 3, 2019 15:45:54 GMT -5
Agreed. Too many tenuous permutations to ponder.
To simplify things, I’m focused on the BE. Finish 10-8 and solo third, and it will be EXTREMELY difficult for the committee to keep us out.
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rlo24
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 337
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Post by rlo24 on Mar 3, 2019 15:46:30 GMT -5
We finish 3rd in the BE regular season and win 1 game in the BET, i think we are in. That's enough to kick in the "Coach Ewing" and "Mac Effect" for the NCAA. There isn't another team that would bring more $ in the first round among the bubble teams..i think the committee is looking for a reason to put us in
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bigsaxa
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 194
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Post by bigsaxa on Mar 3, 2019 15:47:15 GMT -5
Also, do we want creighton to beat Quette today?
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 3, 2019 15:48:11 GMT -5
What we need to do is blow out DePaul, beat Marquette at home, and make a run to atleast the semis in the BET. That’s the only way to guarantee a bid. Making a “run” to BET semis means only one win, right?
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bigsaxa
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 194
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Post by bigsaxa on Mar 3, 2019 15:48:49 GMT -5
We finish 3rd in the BE regular season and win 1 game in the BET, i think we are in. That's enough to kick in the "Coach Ewing" and "Mac Effect" for the NCAA. There isn't another team that would bring more $ in the first round among the bubble teams..i think the committee is looking for a reason to put us in Now that’s a damn fact....the Mac effect is dynamite TV, and you can’t tell me there is a more covered freshman in the country now that Zion is out.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 3, 2019 15:49:56 GMT -5
Also, do we want creighton to beat Quette today? Not in my mind. We want to finish ahead of all BE teams not named Villanova and Marquette.
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,654
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Post by guru on Mar 3, 2019 16:00:14 GMT -5
Just beat DePaul, and then let’s talk
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 3, 2019 16:02:01 GMT -5
Just beat DePaul, and then let’s talk But then you’ll say, “just beat Marquette and then let’s talk.” I know your tricks. Hahaha.
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blueandgray
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,809
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Post by blueandgray on Mar 3, 2019 16:11:38 GMT -5
I think 20 wins gets us in if that includes a win at Marquette Next weekend. 21 wins should get is in no matter who we beat.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 3, 2019 16:24:25 GMT -5
What we need to do is blow out DePaul, beat Marquette at home, and make a run to atleast the semis in the BET. That’s the only way to guarantee a bid. If we beat DePaul and Marquette, we will be 10-8, definitely avoid Wednesday in the BET, and then very possibly have a decent opponent on Thursday, with the chance of getting to Friday and getting another good win. 10-8 and Big East semifinals would be a compelling case for the tournament, but it really would depend on what happens elsewhere too.
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
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Post by mdtd on Mar 3, 2019 17:00:04 GMT -5
Creighton's win makes this very interesting. No idea where to put them, but I'd think that they are in that Next 4 out range.
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